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Is there an argument for Baker Mayfield #1 ?


bosko1616

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58 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

Watson is RG3 2.0 to me, until proven otherwise. But that's an argument for another day.

You make a fair enough point, it is still a wait and see on Watson although he is obviously a far better leader than RG3, with better character as well, so I rate his chances as higher than RG3 for success, but you never know.

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Manziel always enjoyed partying and being in the spotlight more than football. You watch Mayfield play football and you can see how obsessed he is. He is a competitor. Immature at times, but I haven't seen that impact his team or his play at any point. His team loves him. Would Manziel's team ever take his jersey to the coin toss when he was removed as a team captain for a game? 

 

I don't know if he will be better than Rosen or Darnold, but I have a feeling all 3 of them will be quality QB's in the league. 

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8 hours ago, ditchdigger said:

Cowherd getting posted in here? Where am I?

Mayfield is only the most efficient and productive QB in NCAA history, so I think the argument should by why he isn't worth the #1 overall pick. Because his football resume and film says he clearly is.

He has spent his entire career putting up pretty stats against garbage big 12 defenses.

 

I still can’t beleive in 2017 that inflated spread offense college stats is still a metric used to project college QBs

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Just now, candyman93 said:

“Ranked opponents” is an incredibly deceptive stat.

TCU and OSU have good defenses, and he shredded them 3 times this year. Nothing deceptive going on when you watch the games. Just elite passing to all areas of the field in all situations.

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Just now, candyman93 said:

He has spent his entire career putting up pretty stats against garbage big 12 defenses.

 

I still can’t beleive in 2017 that inflated spread offense college stats is still a metric used to project college QBs

It is the only way to rank college QBs, since every college uses spread concepts. What is crazy is dismissing elite production and accuracy as a product of the system, when no other QB is putting up those kinds of numbers or consistency, even against great defenses (TCU and OSU are both top 10, IIRC).

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1 minute ago, ditchdigger said:

TCU and OSU have good defenses, and he shredded them 3 times this year. Nothing deceptive going on when you watch the games. Just elite passing to all areas of the field in all situations.

He's throwing to wide open guys though. I like Baker and think some of the easy comparisons made for him are unfair, but his scheme, talent advantage and the conference he's in inflate his stats and don't often present him with a stern test full of muddy pockets and tight window throws.

That said, you play what's in front of you. And it's not his fault that he and his talent are so much better than what they go up against.

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2 minutes ago, ditchdigger said:

It is the only way to rank college QBs, since every college uses spread concepts. What is crazy is dismissing elite production and accuracy as a product of the system, when no other QB is putting up those kinds of numbers or consistency, even against great defenses (TCU and OSU are both top 10, IIRC).

Jason White, of the same school, went 45:9 and 40:10. Won a Heisman and went to National Championship.

There's a precedent within the same school and position that their huge stats don't translate to the pros.

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1 hour ago, MWil23 said:

If we are stupid enough to draft this guy at #1 overall, I'll take a major break from this site, and more specifically, the Browns in general.

I would be very happy with Josh Rosen, if Darnold stays.

Though there are two things that worry me with Rosen. His decision making when under pressure and his durability. He's never played in the cold and he's a skinny guy.

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4 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

He's throwing to wide open guys though. I like Baker and think some of the easy comparisons made for him are unfair, but his scheme, talent advantage and the conference he's in inflate his stats and don't often present him with a stern test full of muddy pockets and tight window throws.

That said, you play what's in front of you. And it's not his fault that he and his talent are so much better than what they go up against.

Some of the film reminds me of the film showing Weedone playing pitch and catch with Blackmon.

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4 hours ago, Aztec Hammer said:

Jason White, of the same school, went 45:9 and 40:10. Won a Heisman and went to National Championship.

There's a precedent within the same school and position that their huge stats don't translate to the pros.

Lazy comparison; same school but different offense.

Efficiency isn't comparable either, as Mayfield passed for 5-10% better completion rate and 4.4 more A/YA.

Also, Baker has functional knees. 

The two are not comparable prospects.

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14 hours ago, candyman93 said:

We are such a dumpster fire I guarantee it happens. Our fanbase was obsessed with Manziel (even though I knew he’d be awful on and off the field). Our fans are not smart and go with emotions over anything else. 

I half agree and half disagree.

Mayfield is considerably more talented than Johnny Manziel. Its a different level. Not even close to same type of prospects. I think its easier to argue that Mayfield is the #1 overall prospect this year than it was to argue Manziel was a top 100 prospect that year. Mayfield has a better arm. He plays within the offense and lets his unique abilities shine and thats what makes him special. Johnny Manziel was a mediocre player until he hijacked plays, ran around, and freelanced. It worked in college when he had Mike Evans and the best Offensive Line CFB has seen in a long time. It never had a shot of working in the NFL. Johnny didn't run an offense, Mayfield does. I'd compare Mayfield to a Steve Nash, a  point guard who runs the offense with a wildly unique and charismatic style that made the teams around him pop. Manziel was a bench scrub who thought he was Allen Iverson and wouldn't run plays as they are designed because his natural instinct was to do his own thing and attack.

 

Mayfield runs the offense, but when plays break down he makes stuff happen. Manziel broke plays down by himself. Manziel would literally turn his back to the line of scrimmage, multiple times a game. I've never seen anyone do that before, and he did it all the time, for no reason. Even when pressure wasn't there. My joke was that Manziel would be the best pass rusher in NFL history because nobody else can make a QB get rushed behind a good OL like he can. Mayfield is nothing close to that.

I thought Manziel had the worst NFL instincts of any QB prospect that went in the first round in the last 15 years, even worse than Tebow. Mayfield I think scored above average in that regard. And his arm is MUCH better and more accurate. And Mayfield is kind of a nerd, just with some confidence and attitude. Manziel is the loser in your fraternity with rich parents that you tolerate because he buys everyone booze and strippers.

 

The part I agree with is that Mayfield is the type of QB idiots naturally get drawn to. The cult of personality types that love guys with big attitudes and big egos and flashy plays. Its how people like Tebow, and Manziel get drafted first round, and how people like Trump get elected president even though they don't really have any qualifications, the IT factor draws people in. Hes got the moxie. However in this case I think he actually has substance to back it up. I need to watch more to further evaluate but I will not be surprise if hes an NFL star.

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25 minutes ago, bruceb said:

Some of the film reminds me of the film showing Weedone playing pitch and catch with Blackmon.

Mayfield has no top 5 talent WRs to play pitch and catch with. 

There are 10 players with double digit receptions, none over 1000 yards.

Last year, he had that guy in Dede Westbrook (1500 yards), but after losing him his efficiency and production actually got better.

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