2024 Draft Debate and Discussion

[dll2000]

52 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I just think trading up would cost too much this year, for all the reasons said. We’d likely have to pay a QB price. We have just 4 picks. A blue chip talent somewhere will be there at 9, and likely at the position for which we’d be trading up. Fans are obsessed with MHJ and Nabers, and with good reason (they’re both great prospects), but I doubt Poles is. I think if he was looking to trade draft capital to move up for one of them he probably doesn’t expend draft capital to acquire Keenan Allen.

Despite what some fans want to believe, I think all the signs point toward us taking a DL in R1:

-We addressed every starter need position in FA in some fashion except DL

-We have a defensive HC who wants to win passing downs consistently with a 4-man pass rush

-Against better opponents we still frequently struggled to get to the QB even after adding Sweat (did they even have to wash Love’s jersey after the week 18 game?)

-Edge rusher has just a few players likely to make a day 1 impact, and none of them figure to make it out of the 1st round

-Pick 9 is the beginning of the perceived “sweet spot” for taking the top DL based on basically everyone’s player rankings

-What’s left of DL in FA has very few if any upgrades

Agreed.  I am okay with it.  

But if Odunze is there and we take edge or DL be ready for Bears fans to howl loudly on social media.  

Let me amend.  I am okay with pick being Verse now that I have watched him.  I would be upset with Dallas as I have watched him now and don’t see him as a fit in our scheme.

 I haven’t watched Murphy or Newton yet.  But Murphy is undersized and Newton has a hurt foot and hurt feet scare me with linemen.  So I have large reservations with one of those being pick at 9.  

If you are going to be small you better be special.  

[dafreak]

 

[HuskieBear]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

I just think trading up would cost too much this year, for all the reasons said. We’d likely have to pay a QB price. We have just 4 picks. A blue chip talent somewhere will be there at 9, and likely at the position for which we’d be trading up. Fans are obsessed with MHJ and Nabers, and with good reason (they’re both great prospects), but I doubt Poles is. I think if he was looking to trade draft capital to move up for one of them he probably doesn’t expend draft capital to acquire Keenan Allen.

Despite what some fans want to believe, I think all the signs point toward us taking a DL in R1:

-We addressed every starter need position in FA in some fashion except DL

-We have a defensive HC who wants to win passing downs consistently with a 4-man pass rush

-Against better opponents we still frequently struggled to get to the QB even after adding Sweat (did they even have to wash Love’s jersey after the week 18 game?)

-Edge rusher has just a few players likely to make a day 1 impact, and none of them figure to make it out of the 1st round

-Pick 9 is the beginning of the perceived “sweet spot” for taking the top DL based on basically everyone’s player rankings

-What’s left of DL in FA has very few if any upgrades

I think i've been pretty vocal about leaning DL with our 2nd RD1 pick. That being said, if this scenario happens

1.1. caleb

1.2 jayden

1.3 alt (NE thinks theyre gonna be bad again, grabs a LT now, WR in RD2, and a spencer rattler in 3 - similar to HOU with davis mills)

1.4 MIN trades up for Drake - rumor is NYG might be looking QB, MIN pays the premium to ensure they get above them.

1.5 NYG trade up for JJ - not wanting to miss out on a QB, NYG and LA swap picks to prevent a team like LV or DEN move up for him.

1.6 CHI trades CAR 2025 RD2 and 1.9 with LA for MHJ

[dll2000]

9 minutes ago, HuskieBear said:

I think i've been pretty vocal about leaning DL with our 2nd RD1 pick. That being said, if this scenario happens

1.1. caleb

1.2 jayden

1.3 alt (NE thinks theyre gonna be bad again, grabs a LT now, WR in RD2, and a spencer rattler in 3 - similar to HOU with davis mills)

1.4 MIN trades up for Drake - rumor is NYG might be looking QB, MIN pays the premium to ensure they get above them.

1.5 NYG trade up for JJ - not wanting to miss out on a QB, NYG and LA swap picks to prevent a team like LV or DEN move up for him.

1.6 CHI trades CAR 2025 RD2 and 1.9 with LA for MHJ

I don't know anything about JJ, but I don't want MN to get Drake Maye.

I have a feeling he is going to be good.  But MN has not managed team well under new GM.  They are going in wrong direction.  They blew an entire draft a few years back and kept Cousins too long.

 

[soulman]

3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I just think trading up would cost too much this year, for all the reasons said. We’d likely have to pay a QB price. We have just 4 picks. A blue chip talent somewhere will be there at 9, and likely at the position for which we’d be trading up. Fans are obsessed with MHJ and Nabers, and with good reason (they’re both great prospects), but I doubt Poles is. I think if he was looking to trade draft capital to move up for one of them he probably doesn’t expend draft capital to acquire Keenan Allen.

Despite what some fans want to believe, I think all the signs point toward us taking a DL in R1:

-We addressed every starter need position in FA in some fashion except DL

-We have a defensive HC who wants to win passing downs consistently with a 4-man pass rush

-Against better opponents we still frequently struggled to get to the QB even after adding Sweat (did they even have to wash Love’s jersey after the week 18 game?)

-Edge rusher has just a few players likely to make a day 1 impact, and none of them figure to make it out of the 1st round

-Pick 9 is the beginning of the perceived “sweet spot” for taking the top DL based on basically everyone’s player rankings

-What’s left of DL in FA has very few if any upgrades

I would not offer or pay a QB premium for a shot at MHJr when there are two other top WR prospects who may end up being just as good for the Bears.  The delta between #9 and #5 is only 350 points.  If a 2025 second and a kicker of some sort can't get it done I would not do the deal when there's still Nabers or Odunze there.

With a little over a week to go I'm content to let the top ten play out however it does and wait to see how Poles responds.  I'm pretty certain that following his internal process of having three separate teams give their best presentations on WR, OL and DL he'll have at least one of each at the top of his board then rank them.

I think it's unlikely all three will be there but two out of three is likely.  From there it may come down to the BPA regardless of position or if he has them ranked pretty much equally he may draft for his highest need there or trade back if he feels he can do it and still get the player he wants.  What he should not do is overdraft a position.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, HuskieBear said:

I think i've been pretty vocal about leaning DL with our 2nd RD1 pick. That being said, if this scenario happens

1.1. caleb

1.2 jayden

1.3 alt (NE thinks theyre gonna be bad again, grabs a LT now, WR in RD2, and a spencer rattler in 3 - similar to HOU with davis mills)

1.4 MIN trades up for Drake - rumor is NYG might be looking QB, MIN pays the premium to ensure they get above them.

1.5 NYG trade up for JJ - not wanting to miss out on a QB, NYG and LA swap picks to prevent a team like LV or DEN move up for him.

1.6 CHI trades CAR 2025 RD2 and 1.9 with LA for MHJ

But LAC are picking 5th and NYG picking 6th.

[HuskieBear]

7 minutes ago, soulman said:

But LAC are picking 5th and NYG picking 6th.

this scenario has NYG trading up with LA so as not to get jumped by someone else

[StLunatic88]

Since we are talking about trade-out scenarios in front of us, I just had a thought that doesnt seem like anyone is even considering eight now;

1.4] Alot of people point to ARZ asone of the trade outs, Ill be surprised if the offer for the 4th QB is more than what they would value Marvin Harrison Jr at

1.5] Then you have Harbaugh's Chargers that seem to be having a yard sale for the 5th pick, and it will come down to who is there on Thursday Night, but regardless if its JJ/Maye/ Daniels left or Alt maybe even Nabers, someone is likely coming up to 5 so they can gather assets while they try this quick turn around.

 1.6] Id be shocked if the Giants take any QB not named Daniels if they somehow did fall to them. It does seem like they are counting on their favorite non-MHJ weapon to be the pick here, and would jump for joy if he did somehow slip, but a trade out seems unlikely

1.7] This seems to be the consensus floor for Alt, and it likely is. But heres the question, what if Alt goes earlier? Do they just go with their next option at OL? Do they go another WR even though they have alot invented there already? To me this is a pretty big pivot point for the Draft

1.8] HERE is where I had the thought. Everyone is just assuming this is the first Defensive player off the board, but why? Weve had the conversation ourselves, and the difference between the #1 Defensive prospect and like the #7 doesnt feel like all that much. And if the general consensus is that we would pick Odunze at 9 if he's there (I have my doubts) doesnt that open up Atlanta's 8th pick as the premier spot to move up for anyone who covets Odunze? Jets, Broncos, Colts all seem like they could pull that move. But in reality Im looking at JAX who now seems like they really need a big time WR and CIN who could potentially be dealing with figuring out/moving Higgins as teams who would be looking to jump us. AN not to mention the most obvious Buffalo Bills.

 

Im just saying, even the assumption that we are even going to have the option to pick the 3rd WR prospect at #9 seems to be something that many are taking for granted. 

Edited April 17 by StLunatic88

[Bowler1215]

5 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Since we are talking about trade-out scenarios in front of us, I just had a thought that doesnt seem like anyone is even considering eight now;

1.4] Alot of people point to ARZ asone of the trade outs, Ill be surprised if the offer for the 4th QB is more than what they would value Marvin Harrison Jr at

1.5] Then you have Harbaugh's Chargers that seem to be having a yard sale for the 5th pick, and it will come down to who is there on Thursday Night, but regardless if its JJ/Maye/ Daniels left or Alt maybe even Nabers, someone is likely coming up to 5 so they can gather assets while they try this quick turn around.

 1.6] Id be shocked if the Giants take any QB not named Daniels if they somehow did fall to them. It does seem like they are counting on their favorite non-MHJ weapon to be the pick here, and would jump for joy if he did somehow slip, but a trade out seems unlikely

1.7] This seems to be the consensus floor for Alt, and it likely is. But heres the question, what if Alt goes earlier? Do they just go with their next option at OL? Do they go another WR even though they have alot invented there already? To me this is a pretty big pivot point for the Draft

1.8] HERE is where I had the thought. Everyone is just assuming this is the first Defensive player off the board, but why? Weve had the conversation ourselves, and the difference between the #1 Defensive prospect and like the #7 doesnt feel like all that much. And if the general consensus is that we would pick Odunze at 9 if he's there (I have my doubts) doesnt that open up Atlanta's 8th pick as the premier spot to move up for anyone who covets Odunze? Jets, Broncos, Colts all seem like they could pull that move. But in reality Im looking at JAX who now seems like they really need a big time WR and CIN who could potentially be dealing with figuring out/moving Higgins as teams who would be looking to jump us. AN not to mention the most obvious Buffalo Bills.

 

Im just saying, even the assumption that we are even going to have the option to pick the 3rd WR prospect at #9 seems to be something that many are taking for granted. 

 

I'm sure we've all seen mocks that has:

4) AZ MHJ

while Nabers/Odunze go 5 and 6.

I doubt LAC trades the 5th pick, especially if MHJ falls to them.  They need WR help badly. 

I saw a mock on NFLN that had Nabers falling to us, but we traded the pick to Indy so they can get him.  We took CB Quinyon Mitchell at 15. 

 

[Bowler1215]

Not sure if we'll trade the 9th pick, but don't be surprised if Poles trades back from 75 and/or 122. 

[Sugashane]

 

 

A 0.6? I think just off height and weight even my *** would have a higher RAS  🤮

[G08]

1 hour ago, Bowler1215 said:

Not sure if we'll trade the 9th pick, but don't be surprised if Poles trades back from 75 and/or 122. 

It's not a deep draft, I think if we make any more it will be trading down from #9

I'm not sure if there is a "gotta have him" player at #9 compared to the options that may be there at #14 plus a swap of our 3rd round pick for a 2nd round pick.

From there Poles could wheel and deal in round 2 and add more picks.

Curious to see how this all plays out... 8 days to go!!!

[G08]

Quick simulation:

1.1 Caleb Williams - QB

** Trade **

#9 + #75 for #14, #45, #168

 

1.14 Jared Verse - DE

2.45 Ricky Pearsall - WR

4.122 Kiran Amegadjie - OT

5.168 Myles Cole - DE

[soulman]

The availability of Odunze at #9 hinges largely on AZ trading #4 to Minny so they can draft their QB.  Then according to some like Dane Brugler AZ trades back into play with LAC at #5 and drafts MHJr.  If that doesn't happen I would assume LAC would take MHJr or Malik Nabers.  The NYG take the other WR of those two or AZ tries to trade with them and Odunze falls to #9 after Tenn takes an OT and ATL takes a DE.

If AZ won't trade I think we know Minny will hit on both LAC and NYG to assure themselves of getting their QB.  I don't think there's any way Minny won't trade up to get a QB.  If that happens it's pretty certain Odunze will be on the board at #9.  Some believe it will be Nabers who falls to #9 but I haven't seen even one who believes MHJr will fall to #9.  We also know that AZ seems to want him badly.

[AZBearsFan]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

1.8] HERE is where I had the thought. Everyone is just assuming this is the first Defensive player off the board, but why? Weve had the conversation ourselves, and the difference between the #1 Defensive prospect and like the #7 doesnt feel like all that much. And if the general consensus is that we would pick Odunze at 9 if he's there (I have my doubts) doesnt that open up Atlanta's 8th pick as the premier spot to move up for anyone who covets Odunze? Jets, Broncos, Colts all seem like they could pull that move. But in reality Im looking at JAX who now seems like they really need a big time WR and CIN who could potentially be dealing with figuring out/moving Higgins as teams who would be looking to jump us. AN not to mention the most obvious Buffalo Bills.

 

Im just saying, even the assumption that we are even going to have the option to pick the 3rd WR prospect at #9 seems to be something that many are taking for granted. 

Given that we could be looking at either Odunze or the top defender at 9, I agree that the ATL spot is a prime trade down spot for a whole lot of teams whose needs are far more specific. If it’s LAC that trade down from 5 with MIN, them moving back up from 11 to 8 if their guy is Odunze would make a whole lot of sense.