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Dorsey vs the Browns: draft edition

buno67

By buno67
in Cleveland Browns

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buno67

buno67

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Thought I'd compile some stats from Dorsey reign as GM and compare to some of our recent drafts. I use AV to determine value for a player and these AV numbers only count the players time with the team that drafted them. Also AV can only be computed AFTER a season, so no players from 2017 have AV. Similarly AV is a cumulative stat, so each years AV is added to their total, but again this season is no reflected for any player. Naturally the longer a player plays the more AV they generate. For more data on Browns drafts you can look at the post I did after last season here

Without further ado....Since becoming GM Dorsey has been involved with 5 Kansas City drafts, drafting 38 players. By position he has drafted:

  • 8 DB (1s 7cb)
  • 6 OL (2OT 3G 1C)
  • 5 DL (3 DE 2 DT)
  • 5 LB
  • 5 WR
  • 4 RB (1FB 3 RB)
  • 3 QB
  • 2 TE

Those 38 players have generated a total of 215 AV. In that same time period the Browns drafted 47 players who generated a total of 124 AV. Now again the AV numbers do not include the 2017 draft class, a class where Browns players have played more games (which should lead to higher AV). Our rookies have played significantly more than their rookies, so the numbers could look different after the season once our rookie numbers are factored in. That being said none of our rookies have stood out enough to narrow the gap by much. Our most promising rookie (Garrett) misses like 7 games and games played and games started are major factors in AV. Furthermore AV is a function of points per drive, so our bad offense will result in lower AV numbers than teams who score more points (or for defense prevent more points). The AV by draft year is below:

  • 2013 - Dorsey 70 Lombardi 16
  • 2014 - Dorsey 52 Farmer 41
  • 2015 - Dorsey 71 Farmer 42
  • 2016 - Dorsey 22 Sashi 25

2015 was by far Dorsey's best year. 71 vs 2013's 70 doesn't seem like much but AV is cumulative, so 2013 had 2 more years to generate AV and all things being equal should be much higher than 2015. Peters is a 2x probowl corner, Mitch Morse is a starting center (started 38 games) and they have gotten decent production out of their picks in rounds 3, 4, and 5. I should also note that Sashi's 2016 draft outperformed Dorsey's, BUT KC had no 1st rd pick and drafted far fewer players than Sashi. By volume Sashi drafted alot of players with 2 AV and only Ogbah stood out with 7 AV, while Dorsey's 2016 draft AV is nearly all concentrated in 2 players Tyreek Hill (10) and Chris Jones (6).

By player, Dorsey's top 3 players by AV are Eric Fisher (29), Travis Kelce (28), and Marcus Peters (24). It may surprise you to see that Fisher is the highest, since the rap on him is that he is a bust. however AV for offensive lineman is heavily influenced by games playes and games started (Fisher has started 71 games). If you start alot of games in an offense that scores points each OL shares in a good AV. Kelce generated zero stats his first year, starting zero games and only playing in 1 for a 0 AV that year. It basically gives him 1 less year of AV than Fisher despite the same draft class. Peters was drafted 2 years after Kelce and Fisher and that is why he is behind them in career AV. The top 3 players for the Browns in this same span are Kirksey (14), Shelton (12), and Bitonio (12). Literally half of Dorsey's best 3.

Also noteworthy is they only used 4 first rd picks in that span of time. The Browns had 9, (10 picks in top 32). We all know how badly our 1st rd picks have been so I won't spend any more words on it. But it is noteworthy to mention that KC has traded down in rd 1. in 2016 they traded out of the 1st rd trading #28 overall and 7th rd pick for a 2nd, 4th and 6th rd pick. They also traded a 2nd rd pick for a 3rd and 4th that year. Conversely they traded up 4x in the 2017 draft, we all know about the Mahomes trade but they also traded up in 3rd and 5th (twice) rds.

7 of their 38 picks were compensatory picks. That tells you about their use of free agency. they lost 9 more free agents than they signed during that period. Many of those picks came from letting players they drafted walk. In 2015 year 8 free agents walked out the door (5 were previous regime draft picks) and only signed 2 free agents. In 2016 3 FAs lost (1 previous regime draft pick), replaced by 2 previous Andy Reid players. In 2017 5 FAs lost (2 previous regime draft picks and 3 former Dorsey FAs) replaced with only 1 FA (Mitchell Schwartz). I would say this data means Crow, Orchard, Campbell, Tellfer, should be worried. Those are Farmer's picks that are on the bubble and are 2 regimes removed from having a sponsor. Sashi's picks are years away from free agency.

Last item of note. Dorsey was fined and lost a 3rd rd pick for tampering.

***I should also note that Sashi's 2016 draft outperformed Dorsey's, BUT KC had no 1st rd pick and drafted far fewer players than Sashi. >By volume Sashi drafted alot of players with 2 AV and only Ogbah stood out with 7 AV, while Dorsey's 2016 draft AV is nearly all concentrated in 2 players Tyreek Hill (10) and Chris Jones (6).

 

Found this analysis if Dorsey drafting vs the Browns draft. I think this is some solid analysis. Got this information from another site and thought this could cause some great discussion. 

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buno67

buno67

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2 minutes ago, Kathouse Sticks said:

What was the deal with the tampering?

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http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/14938272/kansas-city-chiefs-docked-two-draft-picks-fined-tampering-pursuit-jeremy-maclin-2015

The Chiefs were fined and stripped of two draft picks by the NFL for a violation of the league's anti-tampering policy for having improper contact with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin before the start of last year's free-agent signing period

 

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bruceb

bruceb

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44 minutes ago, buno67 said:

Found this analysis if Dorsey drafting vs the Browns draft. I think this is some solid analysis. Got this information from another site and thought this could cause some great discussion. 

Good stuff.

Ty!

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