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Ward4HOF

I'm Calling It--This is our "QB in the 1st Year"

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I'm not saying this would be the best decision, or that we don't need help in other positions, etc., etc., but here's my reasoning:

1. We are on the Cusp of a SB, and will likely only be taken down by Brady or the Ravens (not because they are better, but because they are a Division Rival, which ALWAYS leaves it up to 'chance'). We are clearly better, overall, than any other team in the AFC...even the Patriots if you take away Brady.

2. We have no GLARING needs any any positions. Yes, we just lost Shazier, but we've got options. Point is, sure, we could upgrade ANY position, but even CB and Safety are in the best shape in years. TE is probably our biggest issue.

3. But most importantly, is how this draft is shaping up. There appear to be at least 4 QBs that, as of right now, if they declare, may find themselves being mid-to-late 1st Rd values. A lot can change, of course, but between Mayfield, Allen, Darnold, and Thorson, if they all declare, likely 2 of them will make their way down to 29-32 range, which is where I suspect we'll be.

4. And of course, the elephant in the room...Ben. Ben has already made mention of his desire to possibly retire soon. There is no doubt in my mind, that if we win the SB, he's gone. If we don't win the SB, he'll likely stay, which would be ideal, and hopefully, Ben will mentor our new QB of the future. But Ben has just crossed the 50K yds mark, he's got 2 SB rings, a 3rd appearance, led the league once in yds, the only QB with B2B 6 TD games, so on and so forth; no one is denying his HOF candidacy at this point--he's in.

 

It's very probable that I am way off-base here with my projection; a lot can happen between now and then. We could implode completely, bringing to light a need at a couple of positions...we could decide to bring in one of the 5-6 other QBs that will likely be Day 2/early-Day 3 types, and hope to get lucky (since there are a lot of intriguing prospects, depending on who declares)...maybe none of the aforementioned 1st-Rd type QBs declare...who knows. Again, a lot can happen, including during the evaluation process these guys start moving all over the board--1st-Rder in December/6th Rder in April.

But as it sits now, the situation looks promising for Colbert/Tomlin to consider bringing in our QB of the future at the end of the 1st Rd. We are not likely to draft Top 10 until the season after Ben retires, and maybe that is the plan, but it sure is tempting to not skip a beat by developing our QB under Ben, as GB did with Rodgers under Favre.

Thoughts?  Am I way off-base?  Does ANYONE think this might be a possibility?  Just curious if my thought processes are way out in space, as per usual...xD

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Steelers scouts and Colbert were spotted at all the top qb games earlier in year...don’t know about recently though.

Offense needs are probably RB(Bell not back)-TE(Macdonald probably cut for cap room)-QB

Defense needs are S-ILB(maybe)-OLB 

Its a consideration...I’d be more for it if they win a SB this year but that’s not really a factor.

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I would have thought the same, but with 3 QBs under contract next year, I think there is a very real possibility we don't take any.  The good news, of course, is that many QB needy teams will be full as a tick QB-wise for the 2019 draft, which could allow us to swoop in and grab someone who drops further than he should.  

Also, given the loss of Shazier, (ILB) and question marks at S, CB, and TE, even possibly OLB with the probable departure of Mr. Harrison,  (Still on the Keion Adams train) we will have bigger immediate needs.  

And believe me, I'm as anxious as anyone to get the next franchise QB on the roster, but given Ben's improved play and the overall performance of the team (coupled with many millions still at stake) Ben SHOULD be around until the end of 2019, maybe 2020.

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1 hour ago, JLambert58 said:

I would have thought the same, but with 3 QBs under contract next year, I think there is a very real possibility we don't take any.  The good news, of course, is that many QB needy teams will be full as a tick QB-wise for the 2019 draft, which could allow us to swoop in and grab someone who drops further than he should.  

Also, given the loss of Shazier, (ILB) and question marks at S, CB, and TE, even possibly OLB with the probable departure of Mr. Harrison,  (Still on the Keion Adams train) we will have bigger immediate needs.  

And believe me, I'm as anxious as anyone to get the next franchise QB on the roster, but given Ben's improved play and the overall performance of the team (coupled with many millions still at stake) Ben SHOULD be around until the end of 2019, maybe 2020.

But those ?s are much small than say, 2-3 years ago, when the ?s were much larger. I hope you are right about Ben sticking around, and IMO, he still has plenty of juice left in the tank, and rumors of his 'demise' were blown WAY our of proportion based upon a rather lackluster, yet still efficient, start to the season, and ONE poor game.  Shoot, Brees had a 0 TD/5INT game a few years back, and nobody cried about him being 'done'...but then again, he doesn't play for the Steelers, so, there's that...

...anyway, this class is full of QBs that have the, to me, most important trait for a QB...and NFL arm.  Without that in the AFC North, you may as well not even apply.  Most draft classes have to 'ding' their QBs based upon this factor, but not this class...the reason any of these QBs are downgraded are for other reasons... 

Darnold???  Too 'immature' (football, not presonal). Needs development.

Rosen???  Too erratic.

Mayfield???  Too Short/Spread Offense.

Allen???  Stats took a nosedive this season after all his weapons went to the NFL last year

Jackson???  Dual-threat = Bust, right??  Thank you, Michael Vick!

Thorson???  Could he lay on a team with less talent at the FBS level??

Rudolph???  Spread offense/poor footwork 

Finley???  Too Skinny.

Falk???  Statuesque...plus, 5 Int effort against Cal this year...oof...

Then, there's guys like Schor, Woodside, and Briscoe, that will go later, but again, not due to arm strength.  Lots of 'NFL Arms' coming out this year, so maybe they do wait until Rd 2/3 and take the best available, but a lot depends upon Ben...

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1 hour ago, Ward4HOF said:

...anyway, this class is full of QBs that have the, to me, most important trait for a QB...and NFL arm.  Without that in the AFC North, you may as well not even apply.  Most draft classes have to 'ding' their QBs based upon this factor, but not this class

I mean, it depends whats you mean by "NFL arm".

Most QBs drafted have that.  

Arm strength in general....IMO anyway....is not even top 5 in things I would be worried about first in terms of drafting a QB.   If its notably weak, sure, but those QBs arent drafted, and if they are, usually very late.

Quote

 

...the reason any of these QBs are downgraded are for other reasons... 

Darnold???  Too 'immature' (football, not presonal). Needs development.

 

...erratic decision maker, not consistent with accuracy, plays for a school not known for producing quality NFL QBs....

Quote

Rosen???  Too erratic.

Im not in love with him...YET.....but IMO, he would be the best fit for us.   Wont fall this far, but he is a guy who, with the right coaching at the next level, could be unstoppable.   Put him behind Ben for a year or two ala Rodgers/Favre, and this could be amazing.

He wont fall to us though.    He'll likely get drafted by the Browns or Jets and asked to start right away, which would be a mistake.

Quote

Mayfield???  Too Short/Spread Offense.

Immature, questionable work ethic, shoddy mechanics that may be unfixable.

If those things COULD be fixed, he could be very good.   Too big of a risk for the first though, IMO.

Quote

Allen???  Stats took a nosedive this season after all his weapons went to the NFL last year

Wouldnt touch him until round 4.     

His stats and efficiency have never been impressive.      

There seems to be QBs here and there where people seem to see things that I dont.     Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Christian Hackenberg.....I guess Josh Allen is next on that list.

Rather roll with Dobbs than draft him early.

Quote

Jackson???  Dual-threat = Bust, right??  Thank you, Michael Vick!

I dont love him as a first rounder, but if we drafted him in the late first, I wouldnt make a stink.

Quote

Thorson???  Could he lay on a team with less talent at the FBS level??

Dont know much about him TBH.

Quote

Rudolph??  Spread offense/poor footwork 

Really liked him coming into the year....not so much anymore.

Quote

 

Finley???  Too Skinny.

Falk???  Statuesque...plus, 5 Int effort against Cal this year...oof...

Then, there's guys like Schor, Woodside, and Briscoe, that will go later, but again, not due to arm strength.  Lots of 'NFL Arms' coming out this year, so maybe they do wait until Rd 2/3 and take the best available, but a lot depends upon Ben...

 

Again, it depends what you mean by "NFL Arms", but some of the issues with those QBs you mentioned are bigger concerns than lack of a big arm.    Id be much more worried about Mayfield's mechanics and Darnolds consistency than their arm strength.    Lots and lots of busts had NFL arms.   Not many great QBs had bad mechanics and accuracy issues.  

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I honestly think that they will put a ton of pressure on Ben to make up his mind early in the offseason.

If he's coming back, I think that they make moves to win now, like keeping Bell, bringing in some "hired guns".

 

But if Ben walks, I think they decide to make some crude "business decisions" like making moves to move on from some pricey guys like Mitchell, Haden, Gilbert.  Maybe they tag Bell, bring in a stop gap QB, and try to jump up in the draft to get a QB or just wait out a year.

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1 hour ago, FourThreeMafia said:

I mean, it depends whats you mean by "NFL arm".

Most QBs drafted have that.  

Arm strength in general....IMO anyway....is not even top 5 in things I would be worried about first in terms of drafting a QB.   If its notably weak, sure, but those QBs arent drafted, and if they are, usually very late.

...erratic decision maker, not consistent with accuracy, plays for a school not known for producing quality NFL QBs....

Im not in love with him...YET.....but IMO, he would be the best fit for us.   Wont fall this far, but he is a guy who, with the right coaching at the next level, could be unstoppable.   Put him behind Ben for a year or two ala Rodgers/Favre, and this could be amazing.

He wont fall to us though.    He'll likely get drafted by the Browns or Jets and asked to start right away, which would be a mistake.

Immature, questionable work ethic, shoddy mechanics that may be unfixable.

If those things COULD be fixed, he could be very good.   Too big of a risk for the first though, IMO.

Wouldnt touch him until round 4.     

His stats and efficiency have never been impressive.      

There seems to be QBs here and there where people seem to see things that I dont.     Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallett, Christian Hackenberg.....I guess Josh Allen is next on that list.

Rather roll with Dobbs than draft him early.

I dont love him as a first rounder, but if we drafted him in the late first, I wouldnt make a stink.

Dont know much about him TBH.

Really liked him coming into the year....not so much anymore.

Again, it depends what you mean by "NFL Arms", but some of the issues with those QBs you mentioned are bigger concerns than lack of a big arm.    Id be much more worried about Mayfield's mechanics and Darnolds consistency than their arm strength.    Lots and lots of busts had NFL arms.   Not many great QBs had bad mechanics and accuracy issues.  

As far as Mayfield's work ethic...not sure where you got that from, but that source is dead wrong. That's one of his redeeming qualities is his work ethic...

"Evaluators like his skills and smarts as a football player, and his leadership and work ethic all got positive reviews."

"He said Mayfield deserves it for his production, attention to detail and work ethic"

"What you get is a guy who was a former walk-on and has willed himself to a potential Heisman Trophy thanks to his instincts, work ethic and having a chip on his shoulder"

I'm not sure how you end up a walk on at Oklahoma, and make it to being a Heisman Trophy Winner without a strong work ethic. He has some immaturity issues, sure, but not work ethic problems, according to his coaches, fellow teammates, and scouts.

Anyway, what I'm meaning to say when I'm talking about 'arm talent' or 'arm strength' as being the most important trait for a Steeler QB is that IMO, it starts there. Like I said, without legitimate Arm Strength...and I mean not just your bare minimums that will get you into the NFL...like Chad Pennington had...I mean a truly strong arm, Colbert, nor Tomlin will give those types of QBs the time of day.  Accuracy, Footwork, Reading through progressions, Pocket awareness, unfamiliarity with pro systems, etc; those can be coached. Even immaturity, to a degree, can be 'worked' out of a player sometimes. But without the requisite Arm Strength, it's over.

I'm not a QB or Coach, and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I do not believe Arm Strength is one of those things that can be increased, or strengthened, as far as I know. Maybe a little bit, but we aren't talking about increasing your 'Bench' from 135 to 225 or something.

I understand what you are saying though...once the QB meets a certain threshold, then who cares. Arm Strength at that point...whether you are the strongest in the NFL, or the 5th strongest, doesn't much matter, so long as you can make the throws. Then, yes, I'm much more concerned with accuracy, reading through progressions/seeing the field, football IQ, etc. But none of those matter if the QB can't throw a dart on an out route in December when it's 30 Degrees, yet it's 2 Degrees due to 20-30 mph winds, and the ball just starts fluttering and 'slices', just like the majority of my drives when golfing, lol...but you are correct, sir. If the dart is thrown right to the opposing team's CB for a quick pick-6, that sure as heck doesn't do any good either...

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1 hour ago, warfelg said:

I honestly think that they will put a ton of pressure on Ben to make up his mind early in the offseason.

If he's coming back, I think that they make moves to win now, like keeping Bell, bringing in some "hired guns".

 

But if Ben walks, I think they decide to make some crude "business decisions" like making moves to move on from some pricey guys like Mitchell, Haden, Gilbert.  Maybe they tag Bell, bring in a stop gap QB, and try to jump up in the draft to get a QB or just wait out a year.

I doubt that.   They should be moving on from Mitchell regardless.    Haden....I think he showed enough where they will keep him around next year.   Gilbert.....I mean, if they feel okay with Hubbard or drafting another guy, it could happen.   I dont see it, though.

 

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51 minutes ago, FourThreeMafia said:

I doubt that.   They should be moving on from Mitchell regardless.    Haden....I think he showed enough where they will keep him around next year.   Gilbert.....I mean, if they feel okay with Hubbard or drafting another guy, it could happen.   I dont see it, though.

 

I'm thinking more they make those types of moves where they can still compete some, but shave off some contracts to be able better fill out the team.  Kinda thinking of what those teams in the Tommy Maddox looked like.  It's either that or sink to the bottom with Landry/Dobbs at QB and see what happens.  Colbert doesn't strike me as a GM like that.  I think he rather just see what happens by treading water and if we sink we sink, if we rise we rise.

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The QB I like for the Steelers is Nick Fitzgerald from Miss St.  Not sure if he comes out but he has all the tools.

Rosen is the most NFL ready at QB. Darnold has the IT factor and poor mechanics.  I think Jackson could be the best QB of this class.  And don't knock the short QBs if they have the arm and decision making skills.  Wilson and Brees are proof of that.

Before you knock spread QBs remember Roethlisberger came from a spread office and never took a snap under center.

This is a bad year to need a safety or ILB.

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If Ben tells us he's coming back, I honestly would be in favor of giving up a big package (2 1sts, 3 2nds, and something else) to move up for Darnold.  He's very Ben like, and I think having at least 1 year to rebuild the footwork and mechanics, while learning from Ben, and could be able to bring him in without missing a beat offensively.

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14 hours ago, Ward4HOF said:

As far as Mayfield's work ethic...not sure where you got that from, but that source is dead wrong. That's one of his redeeming qualities is his work ethic...

"Evaluators like his skills and smarts as a football player, and his leadership and work ethic all got positive reviews."

"He said Mayfield deserves it for his production, attention to detail and work ethic"

"What you get is a guy who was a former walk-on and has willed himself to a potential Heisman Trophy thanks to his instincts, work ethic and having a chip on his shoulder"

I'm not sure how you end up a walk on at Oklahoma, and make it to being a Heisman Trophy Winner without a strong work ethic. He has some immaturity issues, sure, but not work ethic problems, according to his coaches, fellow teammates, and scouts.

Anyway, what I'm meaning to say when I'm talking about 'arm talent' or 'arm strength' as being the most important trait for a Steeler QB is that IMO, it starts there. Like I said, without legitimate Arm Strength...and I mean not just your bare minimums that will get you into the NFL...like Chad Pennington had...I mean a truly strong arm, Colbert, nor Tomlin will give those types of QBs the time of day.  Accuracy, Footwork, Reading through progressions, Pocket awareness, unfamiliarity with pro systems, etc; those can be coached. Even immaturity, to a degree, can be 'worked' out of a player sometimes. But without the requisite Arm Strength, it's over.

I'm not a QB or Coach, and I didn't sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I do not believe Arm Strength is one of those things that can be increased, or strengthened, as far as I know. Maybe a little bit, but we aren't talking about increasing your 'Bench' from 135 to 225 or something.

I understand what you are saying though...once the QB meets a certain threshold, then who cares. Arm Strength at that point...whether you are the strongest in the NFL, or the 5th strongest, doesn't much matter, so long as you can make the throws. Then, yes, I'm much more concerned with accuracy, reading through progressions/seeing the field, football IQ, etc. But none of those matter if the QB can't throw a dart on an out route in December when it's 30 Degrees, yet it's 2 Degrees due to 20-30 mph winds, and the ball just starts fluttering and 'slices', just like the majority of my drives when golfing, lol...but you are correct, sir. If the dart is thrown right to the opposing team's CB for a quick pick-6, that sure as heck doesn't do any good either...

Certainly not the only important trait by any means, but without it, we do not have a Steelers franchise QB.  Look at Bradshaw and Ben - both have big boy arms.  I agree with your premise that it is an essential ingredient. 

Edited by JLambert58

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