squire12 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, incognito_man said: This is not accurate. They don't NEED losses from 2 of those three. It would be sufficient, but even if, for example, Atlanta and Seattle win out, GB still has a 69% chance of making the playoffs if they also win out If seattle wins out, they have 10 wins and are the 6 seed. If atlanta wins out, they would beat New Orleans, meaning GB and atlanta would be tied at 9-8 record. 2 teams tied from different divisions, head to head is fitst tiebreaker based on how im understanding the process noted below https://operations.nfl.com/the-rules/nfl-tie-breaking-procedures/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Old Guy said: Explain this to me. Dallas or Philly have one wildcard spot locked up. If Seattle wins out, they are ahead of us with a 10-7 record. If Atlanta wins out, they win the head-to-head? Are you counting on us winning a tie breaker against multiple 9-8 teams? I'm just asking the question, not disputing your claim. I just use this https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/upshot/green-bay-packers-nfl-playoff-picture.html#chi-atl-17=loss&sea-pit-17=win&min-gb-17=loss&gb-chi-18=win&no-atl-18=loss&ari-sea-18=loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, incognito_man said: This is not accurate. They don't NEED losses from 2 of those three. It would be sufficient, but even if, for example, Atlanta and Seattle win out, GB still has a 69% chance of making the playoffs if they also win out The loser of Dallas/Philadelphia is locked into the #5 seed. Right now, Green Bay owns the H2H tiebreaker over LA Rams and New Orleans. I believe Green Bay currently owns the tiebreaker over the Seahawks because of common games (LAR and Detroit). The Packers are 2-1 in those games, while Seattle is 1-2. So they only need to make up 1 game to knock Los Angeles or Seattle down. I believe a win over Minnesota would give the Packers the edge in the division (3-2 for Green Bay and 2-3 for Minnesota), so they'd have the edge there. The only team that owns the H2H advantage over Green Bay right now (aside from Minnesota) is Atlanta. So the Packers need Atlanta to lose at least one more game. They'd need to win out, and then have one of LA Rams or Seattle lose a game to guarantee a playoff spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, packfanfb said: Must come down to a weird 3-way tie which would negate the head to head results. If GB and Atlanta both win out, they each eliminate a current 7-8 team. Comes down to head to head with atlanta. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, squire12 said: If seattle wins out, they have 10 wins and are the 6 seed. If atlanta wins out, they would beat New Orleans, meaning GB and atlanta would be tied at 9-8 record. 2 teams tied from different divisions, head to head is fitst tiebreaker based on how im understanding the process noted below @incognito_man isn't wrong. But they'd need it to be a 3-way tie to make it happen. If it's a 3-way tie, then H2H gets thrown out since H2H only counts if you've beaten the other teams. Atlanta only beat Green Bay, and Green Bay only beat Los Angeles. It'd come down to conference record and Green Bay and LA Rams would be 7-5 while Atlanta would be 6-6. And once Atlanta was eliminated, the H2H over LA Rams would push the Packers into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, CWood21 said: So the Packers need Atlanta to lose at least one more game False GB has a 90% of making the playoffs if the Falcons win out and so do the Packers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fattlipp Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 (edited) 20 minutes ago, incognito_man said: False GB has a 90% of making the playoffs if the Falcons win out and so do the Packers. I don’t know if there is a 90% chance the Rams or Seahawks lose another game…. Hawks won’t, we need the 49ers to be all in week 18 and beat the Rams…. Edited December 25, 2023 by fattlipp Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HokieHigh Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 This three way tie situation could work out real nice for us. Cool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Just now, HokieHigh said: This three way tie situation could work out real nice for us. Cool Need seattle or LAR to lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 44 minutes ago, incognito_man said: False GB has a 90% of making the playoffs if the Falcons win out and so do the Packers. There's actually an iteration where Green Bay AND Atlanta win out, and the Packers are are on the outside looking in. If the Rams go 2-0 and the Seahawks go 0-2, the Falcons are the #7 seed with the Rams as the #6 seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LacyIsGood Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I hope, but wouldn’t be surprised if SF plays to win the last week of the season. It’s tough to see then coasting for a few weeks while letting a divisional rival in the playoffs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 21 minutes ago, CWood21 said: There's actually an iteration where Green Bay AND Atlanta win out, and the Packers are are on the outside looking in You're right. 100-90% = 10% of iterations, in fact 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Fussnputz Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Harumpf. It's far more likely we go 0-2 than 2-0. Didn't anyone notice that it took a last minute FG to beat the two win Panthers? And we were a half tick away from an OT game? And Joe %$#$ Barry is STILL our DC? The Vikings are likely to run us out of Met Life Stadium. The only positives from today is that Love has arrived, and the WR depth is awesome. Upgrade the O-line and bring in a good young RB and we will be a top 10 offense next season. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coachbuns Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Mr. Fussnputz said: Harumpf. It's far more likely we go 0-2 than 2-0. Didn't anyone notice that it took a last minute FG to beat the two win Panthers? And we were a half tick away from an OT game? And Joe %$#$ Barry is STILL our DC? The Vikings are likely to run us out of Met Life Stadium. The only positives from today is that Love has arrived, and the WR depth is awesome. Upgrade the O-line and bring in a good young RB and we will be a top 10 offense next season. Not that worried about the offense .. that will be a very nice squad. I'm petrified MLF will be a bonehead again .. his job is on the line next year if the defense isn't any better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
{Family Ghost} Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 hour ago, Mr. Fussnputz said: Harumpf. It's far more likely we go 0-2 than 2-0. Didn't anyone notice that it took a last minute FG to beat the two win Panthers? And we were a half tick away from an OT game? And Joe %$#$ Barry is STILL our DC? The Vikings are likely to run us out of Met Life Stadium. The only positives from today is that Love has arrived, and the WR depth is awesome. Upgrade the O-line and bring in a good young RB and we will be a top 10 offense next season. I don't see any way they keep the Vikings under 30. The defense is hot garbage in regards to players and coaching. Love and the offense will need a massive performance to get out of Minny with a W. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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