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what one skill position fix could have the biggest turn around for this team.


mar29020

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On 12/14/2017 at 4:39 AM, turtle28 said:

you have no comparison for another player who plays as much as Smith does that has a similar amount of pressures or a player who plays as little as Galette but has as many pressures as him.

On 12/16/2017 at 6:33 AM, turtle28 said:

I think football outsiders but you have to pay for it and I’m not.

Lucky for you, I do pay for it.

Per their pass pressures, individual page (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/premium/passPressure?year=2017&qual=all through week 14, they haven't updated for 15 yet), total of 591 players listed:

  • Defensive Linemen
    • Matt Ioannidis: 12.0 (121st-tied overall, 5th best on Washington)
    • Evander Hood(!): 11.5 (131st-tied overall, 6th best on Washington)
    • Stacy McGee: 10.5 (141st-tied overall, 7th best on Washington)
    • Jonathan Allen: 10.0 (149th-tied overall, 8th best on Washington)
    • Anthony Lanier: 8.5 (168th-tied overall, 9th best on Washington)
    • Terrell McClain: 5.0 (241st-tied overall, 11th best on Washington)
    • A.J. Francis: 2.0 (396th-tied overall, 14th-tied best on Washington)
  • Linebackers
    • Ryan Kerrigan: 31.0 (19th overall, best on Washington)
    • Preston Smith: 25.0 (38th-tied overall, 2nd best on Washington)
    • Junior Galette: 18.5 (63rd-tied overall, 3rd best on Washington)
    • Zach Brown: 12.5 (117th-tied overall, 4th best on Washington)
    • Mason Foster: 8.0 (179th-tied overall, 10th best on Washington)
    • Martrell Spaight: 3.0 (342-tied overall, 13th best on Washington)
    • Ryan Anderson: 2.0 (396th-tied overall, 14th-tied best on Washington)
    • Will Compton: 1.0 (477th-tied overall, 17th best-tied on Washington)
    • Arthur Jones: 0.5 (569th-tied overall, 19th best on Washington)
  • Defensive Backs
    • D.J. Swearinger: 4.0 (283rd-tied overall, 12th best on Washington)
    • Montae Nicholson: 1.5 (452-tied overall, 16th best on Washington)
    • Deshazor Everett: 1.0 (477th-tied overall, 17th best-tied on Washington)

Ah, but not all of those guys played the same amount of time! So, let's see how many snaps had to elapse before they got a pressure (using: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts (which is not premium, I think)*)

  • Defensive Linemen
    • Jonathan Allen: 15.9 snaps/pass pressure, 159 snaps
    • Anthony Lanier: 25.4, 216 snaps
    • Stacy McGee: 34.4, 361 snaps
    • A.J. Francis: 36.0, 72 snaps
    • Matt Ioannidis: 36.5, 438 snaps
    • Evander Hood: 43.5, 500 snaps (not as impressive now)
    • Arthur Jones: 46.0, 23 snaps
    • Terrell McClain: 56.0, 280 snaps
  • Linebackers
    • Junior Galette: 16.3
    • Ryan Kerrigan: 21.2
    • Preston Smith: 23.6
    • Mason Foster: 35.9
    • Zach Brown: 66.7
    • Martrell Spaight: 84.3
    • Ryan Anderson: 91.5
    • Will Compton: 150.0
  • Defensive Backs
    • Montae Nicholson: 212.0
    • D.J. Swearinger: 214.5
    • Deshazor Everett: 362.0

 

So, what do we have here?

On one hand, turtle, you're right. Galette is getting a lot of pressure given his playing time. Also, Smith doesn't look so bad in this comparison either. Whether that contributes to incompletions (because we don't get turnovers) would require way too much time to calculate.

On the other, we can see how much of a waste McGee and McClain have been. Ioannidis is essentially doing the same amount of work in comparison to McGee, and McClain is a whole another story considering how Lanier is kicking his *** in terms of QB pressure on a similar number of snaps. Both of these are now proven to be busts. Oh and lest you say they're run stoppers? We're 20th in terms of DVOA against the run.

Early returns on Ryan Anderson are not good. At all.

We also rarely blitz safeties and never corners, apparently. Keep in mind that this is pressures, so if one of those guys gets to the QB, I don't think it counts here.

 

 

* For reasons I don't understand, there were no snaps listed in week 5. While it might adjust the number slightly (or in Allen's case, a fair amount), the overall point holds.

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2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

McGee and McClain are more run defenders than pass rushers, I said this when we signed them. 

That would help if they were good at stopping the run but they suck at that as well. Terrible, terrible signings by Bruce. 

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7 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

Preston smith played a lot of DT in college.  Explain to me how that is like an OLB.  It isn’t.

He played DT in Mississippi State’s nickle defense as an interior pass rusher. He didn’t play there on run downs.

Also, it’s clear he’s athletic enough to play the position. He’s dropped 5-10 pounds since we drafted him and McCloughan who is a great talent evaluator projected Smith to play OLB and not 3-4 DE for our team.

I agree he could have played either but McLoughan and the coaches decided to make him an OLB because of his athleticism despite him being 270 pounds.

He certainly could have put on 20 Plus pounds to play 3-4 DE but he’s been a good OLB. I’ll agree he hasn’t been great but he’s also only in his second year and has flashed signs of greatness, he just needs to get more consistent.

I don’t even know why you’re arguing over this. They aren’t going to move Smith to 3-4 DE, it’s totally a waste of an argument. 

At least when I argued for Murphy to make the switch he had already been rushing inside in nickle packages as a rookie and there were rumors since his rookie year that they may try him out at 3-4 DE. I don’t think they’ve ever done that with Smith. If they have it’s been very rare.

Also, Smith has proven he can get over 5 sacks in a season twice now and he’s not even fully developed yet. This is something Murphy couldn’t do his rookie and 2nd seasons. Smith has proven he has the ability to beat LTs. Murphy was struggling to beat RTs his first two years so because Murphy wasn’t showing the athleticism to beat OTs it made sense to put weight on him and for him to move to 3-4 DE; Smith doesn’t have that problem.

Sure Smith could be upgraded to an elite ROLB but let’s not act like he hasn’t flashed a lot and hasn’t proven that he can already be a good player for us. McCloughan certainly hit on Smith as a draft pick. Sure there were a few ILBs and Goldman that McCloughan passed on who may have been better than Smith but Smith has also been a good player for us and will only get better next year and if we re-sign him after that.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/19/2017 at 9:55 PM, turtle28 said:

McGee and McClain are more run defenders than pass rushers, I said this when we signed them. 

You don't pay guys $20M for just two down work.

Well, you don't if you're a competent franchise.

And you certainly don't when one of the guys is a complete non-entity for most of his career.

 

BTW, I vaguely recall you arguing about the pressure McClain got in his final season at Dallas as why his signing was a good thing.

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3 hours ago, Woz said:

You don't pay guys $20M for just two down work.

Well, you don't if you're a competent franchise.

And you certainly don't when one of the guys is a complete non-entity for most of his career.

 

BTW, I vaguely recall you arguing about the pressure McClain got in his final season at Dallas as why his signing was a good thing.

He pushes the pocket well, well, actually they both do a pretty good job at it but luckily for us our young interior DL (Allen, Ioannidis and Lanier) have stepped up and been better than them.

Still, McGee has made several plays pushing the pocket which have led to incompletions or vs the Eagles in week 1 he pushed Johnson back in the pocket and it caused Went to throw a bad pas which Kerrigan intercepted and returned for a TD.

Also, the $20 million remark is way off base and you know that. Their guaranteed $ is low. McGee could be cut this in March and McClain could be cut in June or next March and we’d save cap space. I expect both will be on the roster in 2018 and cut in March of 2019 but I don’t think we’re really overpaying them. It’s not like either is getting over $5 million a year.

 

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