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2018 Draft Thread I


Forge

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1 hour ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

I think you may be underestimating Juice's important to the offense, and how many touches he'll get as a receiver. The team gave him a big contract for a reason, and he looked good once Jimmy took over last season.

I understand, but he's still a FB, and he still runs a 4.7+ forty.  I'm talking about a true RB that runs a 4.5 or so but is over 220. My very concern is exactly something you mentioned - how many touches Juice will get as a receiver, along with McKinnon and our other RBs.  I already commented several times last year that with third or 4th and short Shanny's default apprpach was trickery rather than power.  No problem with trickery, and certainly love the creativeness of Shanny's plays. But there's a reason that with 3rd or 4th and short the Patriots go with a QB sneak or big back up the middle. It works. In fact I saw, and quoted a few months ago, an article that analyzed the difference in success rates between those kinds of plays vs attempting to get the short yardage with a pass play. It was no contest. Of course you have to mix in a pass every now and then to keep teams honest.  But Shanny appears to almost have an aversion to simple, pure power up the middle. I worry that could be a bit of a flaw.. Maybe it's not so much that I can't beleive Shanny would consider having no back bigger than 205. Maybe it's that I think that will not be as effective an offense as having big RB to throw in there every now and then.

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Just now, MasherSF said:

Hey @Forge, we all might've been on to something in the GM Mock draft lol. 

 

See, this is why I keep sending Lynch my resume to try and get a job. We think just alike except for all the times we don't. 

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Man, I had us taking Josh Sweat in the fifth or sixth. But that was because I thought his injuries would tank his value. I thought his film was solid, but nothing spectacular, especially considering his pedigree. It's pretty crazy to see his ascension into second round consideration (much less first round). 

 

But freaky athletes always have that potential and that's enticing. 

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1 hour ago, Forge said:

See, this is why I keep sending Lynch my resume to try and get a job. We think just alike except for all the times we don't. 

Time will tell about Lynch.  But I'd gladly take you as our GM over Baalke any day!

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57 minutes ago, John232 said:

Man, I had us taking Josh Sweat in the fifth or sixth. But that was because I thought his injuries would tank his value. I thought his film was solid, but nothing spectacular, especially considering his pedigree. It's pretty crazy to see his ascension into second round consideration (much less first round). 

 

But freaky athletes always have that potential and that's enticing. 

We seem to be in love with spped - and I'm all for it!

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2 hours ago, MasherSF said:

Hey @Forge, we all might've been on to something in the GM Mock draft lol. 

 

Does this mean we may not go pass rusher in the first? I still have no feel on which way we may be leaning with our pick. It could be Edmunds, James, Fitz, Ward or even a reach on one of the tackles. I guess that's what makes this time of the year so exciting

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54 minutes ago, John232 said:

I'm really thinking it's going to be Landry, Edmunds, Smith and maybe Davenport. I think Offensive Tackle and Minkah/Derwin are on the table, but unlikely. But i'd bet money on it being Landry/ 

If I were a betting man, I think my slight odds on favorite,  if he's there,  is Edmunds. I just don't know if he's going to be there. Chicago taking him makes a lot of sense.

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2 hours ago, StevenK said:

Does this mean we may not go pass rusher in the first? I still have no feel on which way we may be leaning with our pick. It could be Edmunds, James, Fitz, Ward or even a reach on one of the tackles. I guess that's what makes this time of the year so exciting

I have a gut feeling that we may trade down. This draft is weird. Everything about is crazy. Top end talent will be dropping. Their will be guys that are first-round talent in the early parts of the second round. I would love to try and get 12 & 21 from Buff. Or if the giants trade back with Buffalo get 12 and their early 2 to try and add more depth. 

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15 hours ago, big9erfan said:

I understand, but he's still a FB, and he still runs a 4.7+ forty.  I'm talking about a true RB that runs a 4.5 or so but is over 220. My very concern is exactly something you mentioned - how many touches Juice will get as a receiver, along with McKinnon and our other RBs.  I already commented several times last year that with third or 4th and short Shanny's default apprpach was trickery rather than power.  No problem with trickery, and certainly love the creativeness of Shanny's plays. But there's a reason that with 3rd or 4th and short the Patriots go with a QB sneak or big back up the middle. It works. In fact I saw, and quoted a few months ago, an article that analyzed the difference in success rates between those kinds of plays vs attempting to get the short yardage with a pass play. It was no contest. Of course you have to mix in a pass every now and then to keep teams honest.  But Shanny appears to almost have an aversion to simple, pure power up the middle. I worry that could be a bit of a flaw.. Maybe it's not so much that I can't beleive Shanny would consider having no back bigger than 205. Maybe it's that I think that will not be as effective an offense as having big RB to throw in there every now and then.

We added the QB sneak to our repertoire when Jimmy took over. 

As someone else mentioned, it's not always the biggest backs that are the best at short yardage situations. I'd love to have a big competent back, sure, but I don't want to add a big guy just for the sake of getting a big guy. I don't think not having one automatically means we'll struggle getting the tough yards. For all we know, maybe Kyle was experimenting with the trickery last year, because he knew we didn't have the OL or RB to really punch it in anyway. It doesn't necessarily mean that going forward, we'll systematically try to outfancy other teams, rather than use brute force. We had a right side of Kilgore Fusco and Brown, last year... that's not really a strength in the running game. That means opponents could focus on our "stronger" side (if it even was... I mean, we have Staley, but Tomlinson was average at best) and not worry so much about the others. And with Hyde being somewhat of a dancing bear behind the line, it just wasn't really going to work in short yardage. I think the OL will have a lot more to do with our short yardage success than the weight of the RB will.

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16 hours ago, John232 said:

I'm really thinking it's going to be Landry, Edmunds, Smith and maybe Davenport. I think Offensive Tackle and Minkah/Derwin are on the table, but unlikely. But i'd bet money on it being Landry/ 

I'm betting on one of those four. Ward, Fitzpatrick and James being more longshots to me. I can't see an OT in the first.  In fact I don't think anyone will take one in the top 10, or maybe even top 15.  Bad year for OTs.

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4 hours ago, rudyZ said:

We added the QB sneak to our repertoire when Jimmy took over. 

As someone else mentioned, it's not always the biggest backs that are the best at short yardage situations. I'd love to have a big competent back, sure, but I don't want to add a big guy just for the sake of getting a big guy. I don't think not having one automatically means we'll struggle getting the tough yards. For all we know, maybe Kyle was experimenting with the trickery last year, because he knew we didn't have the OL or RB to really punch it in anyway. It doesn't necessarily mean that going forward, we'll systematically try to outfancy other teams, rather than use brute force. We had a right side of Kilgore Fusco and Brown, last year... that's not really a strength in the running game. That means opponents could focus on our "stronger" side (if it even was... I mean, we have Staley, but Tomlinson was average at best) and not worry so much about the others. And with Hyde being somewhat of a dancing bear behind the line, it just wasn't really going to work in short yardage. I think the OL will have a lot more to do with our short yardage success than the weight of the RB will.

Of course. Nor a RB based solely on his speed, nor a CB based solely on speed, nor a QB based solely on height, nor an OT based solelyon arm length, etc..Of courrse that goes without saying - or apparantly not. Of course they have to be talented in order to consider them. But just as Shanny and Lynch are absolutely targeting certain types of players they can target a bigger back. Of course I'm not talking about a a big, slow lumbering guy that can't catch. But how about a guy like Barkley? He would not be talked about as the highest rated RB in a decade if he was 195 instead of 235.  Big, fast, mobile with great hands is better than small, fast, mobile with great hands.

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