2018 Draft Thread I

[big9erfan]

21 minutes ago, y2lamanaki said:

Totally fair. I was just comparing them as college players, not Lynch in NFL vs. Landry projected NFL. If Landry only gives what Lynch gave, I agree with you - that's a mid-round guy. I would be surprised if Landry doesn't outperform Lynch, though.

Me either. I wasn't suggesting that's what he would produce only joking that if he produced what Lynch did for us then we should be targeted him later in the draft. He's a quandary for me. I see a really broad range of potential outcomes for him. He has that one unbelievable season and it's just hard to ignore how good he was at his best. But his other three years were meh. How healthy was he this past year? How much did injuries cut into his production? How much did teams focus on him and take him out of the game?  Things I don't know at all are things like how often did he come up against a really good OT? How well did he play when he was facing a top quality OT?  I don't really even know if he is OK at other aspects of the game or a liability at anything other than rushing the passer.

The comparison I worry about is not Lynch. It's Eli Harold.  Their combine measurements are freakily similar - same height, weight, arm length, hand size; virtually identical 40 times and vert and broadjump, exact same number of lifts.  Landry did come in close to two tenths faster in the 3-cone, and maybe that's meaningful. Otherwise they are virtually physical clones.  In college Harold got 7 and 8.5 sacks his last two years. Combine that with his physical tools and he projected to a decent NFL pass rusher. But as we all know he's pretty much dreadful out there. I don't see Landry as being that bad, but I do think it possible that he coudl end up closer to Harold than to an all pro. That's about as broad a range of outcomes as possible.

[Ronnie's Pinky]

45 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

Their combine measurements are freakily similar - same height, weight, arm length, hand size; virtually identical 40 times and vert and broadjump, exact same number of lifts.  Landry did come in close to two tenths faster in the 3-cone, and maybe that's meaningful. Otherwise they are virtually physical clones.  In college Harold got 7 and 8.5 sacks his last two years. Combine that with his physical tools and he projected to a decent NFL pass rusher. But as we all know he's pretty much dreadful out there. I don't see Landry as being that bad, but I do think it possible that he coudl end up closer to Harold than to an all pro. That's about as broad a range of outcomes as possible.

Landry got more sacks in his junior year at BC than Harold got in his last two college seasons, combined. It's not all about combine measurements. Landry's tape, when he wasn't nursing an ankle injury, is much better than Harold's ever was. With Landry, the production is there to go along with the measurements. That's kind of a big deal.

[John232]

Anyone else have thoughts on Lorenzo Carter? I think if he's someone available in the third, we take him regardless of what we've picked already. Really like his upside and potential, more than Josh Sweat tbh. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, John232 said:

Anyone else have thoughts on Lorenzo Carter? I think if he's someone available in the third, we take him regardless of what we've picked already. Really like his upside and potential, more than Josh Sweat tbh. 

Third? I think he could go in the first. Outside shot, but I think it's possible. Depends on that medical though. If it's clean, he's not falling out of the second

[John232]

Just now, Forge said:

Third? I think he could go in the first. Depends on that medical though. If it's clean, he's not falling out of the second

I could see him falling to late second and would be totally ok with him there. I think Ogobonnia(maybe), Sweat, Davenport and Hubbard will go before him. 

[Forge]

1 minute ago, John232 said:

I could see him falling to late second and would be totally ok with him there. I think Ogobonnia(maybe), Sweat, Davenport and Hubbard will go before him. 

If he's there, I love him as a prospect. I'd take him in a heartbeat. I think he goes before sweat and Ogo for sure. I think people see him as an edge rusher. He's raw there because GA moved him around so much, but he could play there. I like Carter more than Sweat

[John232]

Just now, Forge said:

If he's there, I love him as a prospect. I'd take him in a heartbeat. I think he goes before sweat and Ogo for sure. I think people see him as an edge rusher. 

I think he's a better version of Sweat. I liked some of Sweats tape, but I see the consistency from Carter a lot more. They both had a great combine and I really, really like Carter's potential as a base down SAM and third down Edge guy. I just think Sweat and Hubbard will go before him. Sweat literally had the best combine ever for a defensive end. Hubbard has the whole OSU, white guy lunch pale thing goin on as well as a good combine. Ogo would also be intriguing if he dropped to the third, not in love with him though. Also I could see a huge run on these guys in the second, just get whatever high upside, high floor guys are available before the third/fourth. Not gonna see a Carl Lawson-esque prospect drop to the 4th again..

 

 

[Forge]

6 minutes ago, John232 said:

I think he's a better version of Sweat. I liked some of Sweats tape, but I see the consistency from Carter a lot more. They both had a great combine and I really, really like Carter's potential as a base down SAM and third down Edge guy. I just think Sweat and Hubbard will go before him. Sweat literally had the best combine ever for a defensive end. Hubbard has the whole OSU, white guy lunch pale thing goin on as well as a good combine. Ogo would also be intriguing if he dropped to the third, not in love with him though. Also I could see a huge run on these guys in the second, just get whatever high upside, high floor guys are available before the third/fourth. Not gonna see a Carl Lawson-esque prospect drop to the 4th again..

 

 

Definitely like him more than Sweat. He was actually my target for TCMD over Sweat, but the titans took him a couple of picks before me, so I was kind of stuck with Sweat. Carter is going to be a fascinating guy to watch, because of what Georgia did with him. He seriously played everywhere. If you want to start him at leo / edge, he's probably a primary rotational guy. But I agree that he has some SAM potential too, and he could be an excellent blitzer from that position. Very Bruce Irvin like in this scheme. 

[big9erfan]

 

59 minutes ago, John232 said:

Anyone else have thoughts on Lorenzo Carter? I think if he's someone available in the third, we take him regardless of what we've picked already. Really like his upside and potential, more than Josh Sweat tbh. 

Me too.

[big9erfan]

1 hour ago, Ronnie's Pinky said:

Landry got more sacks in his junior year at BC than Harold got in his last two college seasons, combined. It's not all about combine measurements. Landry's tape, when he wasn't nursing an ankle injury, is much better than Harold's ever was. With Landry, the production is there to go along with the measurements. That's kind of a big deal.

All I'm saying is that Harold measures out almost identically the same in every possible way and was a solid pass rusher in college. He's terrible in the NFL.  Guys that are pretty good pass rushers in college and measure out well in size and combine performance don't always turn into pretty good pass rushers at the next level.  And guys that have had one great year in  college often don't have even that one great year in the NFL. I'm not sayhing he's not the best pass rusher in this draft.  But if he were considered a "can't miss" type he'd be mocked in the top 5 . But Landry is often mocked in the teens.  In fact I've seen him mocked in the 20's more than the top 10. Heck, Daniel Jeremiah is one of the "talking heads" that has actually done talent evaluation for NFL teams and he has Landry number 39 on his big board. Walter Football, granted a whole lot less reliable, has him 43 on their big board. Kiper's got him at 25. Best I've seen in a big board is Matt Miller who's got Landry at 17.

[big9erfan]

The discussions about Sweat and Carter I think are important because I don't see us taking a pass rusher at 9.  But everyone knows we need one. So the question is who might we pick later in the draft.  Our second and two thirds give us multiple chances to get someone around that part of the draft.  After that it's all the way down to late 4th.  So we either target somebody with those three picks on day 2, or we take a flyer on a later round guy.

I'm torn about guys that might be there on day 2.  One guy Ilike for our 4th or 5th is Mata-afa. Not really gifted, but works his butt off and pretty productive in college. That late in the draft everyone is kind of a crap shoot. Oko is another guy I've seen mocked all over the place, including lasting till our 4th.

[Forge]

3 minutes ago, big9erfan said:

The discussions about Sweat and Carter I think are important because I don't see us taking a pass rusher at 9.  But everyone knows we need one. So the question is who might we pick later in the draft.  Our second and two thirds give us multiple chances to get someone around that part of the draft.  After that it's all the way down to late 4th.  So we either target somebody with those three picks on day 2, or we take a flyer on a later round guy.

I'm torn about guys that might be there on day 2.  One guy Ilike for our 4th or 5th is Mata-afa. Not really gifted, but works his butt off and pretty productive in college. That late in the draft everyone is kind of a crap shoot. Oko is another guy I've seen mocked all over the place, including lasting till our 4th.

I think it could definitely happen. I said it before - I think the draft is going to be defensive heavy again. If Nelson falls, maybe he is an option at 9, but I'm not convinced we would. Minkah and Derwin are guys I'm sure we would give thought to based on a BPA approach. I think we are absolutely in the discussion for a pass rusher at 9. If I had to lay money on who I think the picks would be, I think my money would largely be on Edmunds and Landry if they are there.

 

[DTMW78]

15 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think it could definitely happen. I said it before - I think the draft is going to be defensive heavy again. If Nelson falls, maybe he is an option at 9, but I'm not convinced we would. Minkah and Derwin are guys I'm sure we would give thought to based on a BPA approach. I think we are absolutely in the discussion for a pass rusher at 9. If I had to lay money on who I think the picks would be, I think my money would largely be on Edmunds and Landry if they are there.

 

I think Edmunds goes a pick before us to Chicago.

Hopefully we can get a small trade back to 12 with the bills, stay ahead of Green bay and take Landry.

[JIllg]

Just now, Forge said:

I think it could definitely happen. I said it before - I think the draft is going to be defensive heavy again. If Nelson falls, maybe he is an option at 9, but I'm not convinced we would. Minkah and Derwin are guys I'm sure we would give thought to based on a BPA approach. I think we are absolutely in the discussion for a pass rusher at 9. If I had to lay money on who I think the picks would be, I think my money would largely be on Edmunds and Landry if they are there.

 

I pretty much agree. With Minkah as the third legitimate option. I think he's a pro bowl starting high safety for us, and while Colbert played well in limited reps, I wouldn't mind making him the third S. Minkah could even fill for Tartt's injuries in the box while Colbert played FS. Minkah's flexibility is highly useful that way. I think that he's a competent nickel, high safety, box safety, and even boundary corner with the highest potential being at high safety, where I project (based on very limited available film, alas) him to be pretty special. He has a superb football character. He has ball skills. He has excellent IQ and tackles well. I wouldn't take him at 9 as a boundary corner and don't value a nickel that highly, but I think that he's worth it as a FS (with the only concern being the relative lack of tape at the position). I would have 1. Fitzpatrick 2. Edmunds 3. Landry 4. Smith as my options at 9, though with latter two, I'd push for a trade down even at a slight discount to the team trading up. Ward and Nelson are excellent players and worth the pick, but we value scheme fits very highly and they aren't perfect fits. I mean, Nelson reminds me a lot of Norwell, and we really didn't try to use our cap room on Norwell. Roquon Smith is a WILL. A pro bowl WILL, probably, but only a WILL. And that may be Reuben's best position long term once Malcom Smith's contract comes off the books. Plus, Malcom Smith is kind of a thing. Kind of. It is rough justifying that many resources to cover what might be one position. Edmunds has no limit. The dude even has 34.5 inch arms in addition to all of the other stupid traits. He's a baby. He could be a ++ pass rusher, pass defender and run defender. He is a plus pass defender and decent blitzer now, though his instincts have a very long way to go. Was a Butkus candidate barely knowing how to play the game. The question is, how much do you trust your staff and his character? I've liked the little I've seen in his public interviews. Not sure about our defensive staff, but they did well last year developing our picks. My position on Landry should be pretty clear. I'm a bit higher on him than most. I have him as a half std deviation to a full std deviation above the mean as a starter at his position, though not quite the very best. Usually, I'd peg that at around pick 12-18, given the value of that position. It's a bit of a difficult draft from 8-15 for us, though, due to scheme fits. 

[big9erfan]

45 minutes ago, Forge said:

I think it could definitely happen. I said it before - I think the draft is going to be defensive heavy again. If Nelson falls, maybe he is an option at 9, but I'm not convinced we would. Minkah and Derwin are guys I'm sure we would give thought to based on a BPA approach. I think we are absolutely in the discussion for a pass rusher at 9. If I had to lay money on who I think the picks would be, I think my money would largely be on Edmunds and Landry if they are there.

 

Are you saying Edmunds as a pass rusher?