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GDT week 15 Broncos at Colts.


thebestever6

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Well last week was bitter sweet. The team showed pride something they've been missing for most of the year, and completely shut down the Jets. So while it's a good win it gets us closer to less whole sale changes for the Broncos in the off season and kind of has us in purgatory.  

The offense executed enough to win comfortably.  But lets be honest they still left a lot to be desired. What we saw though was complementary football something that will be needed long term in order to have sustained success.

On paper this is another wonderful  matchup for the Broncos. The only advantage the Colts have imo is Brissett has played marginally better than anything we've thrown out there this year. Brissett mid 70s pff grade Siemian 49.

With that said Siemian is more experienced than Brissett and the Colts defense is a lot more favorable of a matchup for Denvers offense than the Broncos d for the Colts offense. 

I'm not sure the Colts have enough personnel in the front 7 to knock Siemian off his spot.

The key to this game is a fast start whatever team starts off faster will win.  When two teams play with bad records I feel like the air can deflate quuckly for the team that starts out slow. 

Even though I think Jack Doyle poses a big threat to our pass d I feel like the same can be said with the Colts and their ravaged secondary.  

I expect a comfortable 31 - 17 Broncos win and one step closer to the 6 and 10 season I fear. I just think the better we finish the greater the excuse to keep things the same. Which long term is bad.

 

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If this wasn't @IND, we'd be clear favorites, as it is we enter as 2-pt favorites.    This game likely decides the draft order for the top 5 AFC-wise, and as covered in the other thread, we are at best picking at 1.3 (NYG isn't winning 2 of next 3 games).  

So how do the Colts beat us?  Not nearly as clear a path, but here are the key matchups:

1.  Protecting QB Jacoby Brissett - this is huge, because after a hot start, Brissett has regressed in a huge way.   He holds on to the ball far too long, and gets rattled with pressure - so how the Colts control Von is a huge here.    Much like our team, IND's weak spot is RT Joe Haeg - which means the Colts should be scheming extra help.  That leaves LT Anthony Costanza alone vs. Ray/Barrett, given that our DL hasn't been able to get consistent pressure inside, the 2 keys to the pass pro battle for IND.   Getting C Ryan Kelly (concussion) would be huge for improving their OL play.   Protecting the

2.  Their TE/RB's vs. our pass D, their RB's vs. our run D - getting ahead made a huge difference for the Jets game, because the Jets had to then focus on being more pass-heavy, which played right into our D's strength, and away from the fact that Wolfe/Peko being out really hurts our interior run D.    Kelly being back would help the Colts run inside more for sure.   One huge mistake the Jets made - they didn't get their TE down the seam, nor push the RB's on wheel routes, where we can't cover - frankly, while the outcome was too lopsided to say that would have been the difference between a W and a L, it was mindboggling to see a team not attack our LB's with TE/RB passing. I doubt any other team does that for the RoS.  IND has a top 6-8 TE in Jack Doyle, I'd imagine that gameplan changes.  At RB,  Frank Gore is unspectacular but safe..the wild card for the Colts is Marlon Mack, their rookie RB who is a burner, and very good in the open field and pass receiving.  IND should be featuring a lot of those 3 if they want to succeed.

3.  Our OL vs. their pass rush - Siemian had a good game, but as the case with most QB's, having very little pressure helped a lot.   This was a good game for the OL as a whole - as someone who recognizes that Siemian is the best of a bad lot on this roster, it's also clear getting pressure is where he has struggled mightily.    This where the Colts don't generate many sacks, and so how much they can get pressure on Siemian goes a long way in getting those TO's that other D's got in bunches.

4.   Their secondary vs. DT/Sanders - CB Rashaad Melvin has missed the last 2 games, but is practicing already - he's having a breakout season as PFF's #16 overall CB.   He'll have to be great to contain one of DT/Sanders, because the rest of their secondary is pretty vulnerable.   This is key, because...

5.  Their improved rush D - IND started out awful in run D, giving up 10 rushing TD"s in the first 7 games.    Since then, they've only allowed 3 rushing TD's in the last 6 games, and now have the 13th ranked run D.    Given Leary won't be playing, I don't expect we'll find as much success against them, which will amplify the importance of our pass game this week.

6.  Special teams - still one of the bottom teams, although I will say Jordan Taylor played very well in the return game.  Amazing what stability and reliability means when you've got a guy fumbling 6 out of 28 punt returns. 

It's a game we deserve to be favorites, IND is that weak - but HFA is a great equalizer, esp. with crowd noise.   I"ll call a 20-17 game, whether it' DEN or IND as victor all falls on Siemian vs. Brissett IMO.

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I'm a little nervous starting the Broncos D this week, but I think I'm gonna go for it. I'm in both my fantasy finals (somehow). The other D I was using, Titans is at SF and my other league I was using Chargers and they are at KC. 

 

Ty Hilton usually gets us a bit

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5 minutes ago, champ11 said:

I'm a little nervous starting the Broncos D this week, but I think I'm gonna go for it. I'm in both my fantasy finals (somehow). The other D I was using, Titans is at SF and my other league I was using Chargers and they are at KC. 

 

Ty Hilton usually gets us a bit

Not that this will change your mind but I saw Simmons went on IR, so I have no idea who's playing FS. Maybe Stew is going to shift to FS and have Carter at SS? But good call on not starting LAC in KC. I decided to bench them and I went with NO D against NYJ.

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33 minutes ago, iLikeDefense said:

Not that this will change your mind but I saw Simmons went on IR, so I have no idea who's playing FS. Maybe Stew is going to shift to FS and have Carter at SS? But good call on not starting LAC in KC. I decided to bench them and I went with NO D against NYJ.

It'll be great to see Carter for an extended period of time.

What has the verdict been on him this season?

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2 hours ago, iLikeDefense said:

Not that this will change your mind but I saw Simmons went on IR, so I have no idea who's playing FS. Maybe Stew is going to shift to FS and have Carter at SS? But good call on not starting LAC in KC. I decided to bench them and I went with NO D against NYJ.

NO is going to be the most popular DFS D this week.  Even if it doesn’t work you have to go there.  I love LAC D but you can’t pass that up.  Right process all you can do.  

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So no Ryan Kelly at C for IND, and no CB Rashaan Melvin.  3 rookie CB's for IND tonight.

If we don't win, it would seriously call into Siemian's ability to even stay as a backup long-term, given the struggles we've seen this season (he's played well vs. DAL & NYJ, but in both occasions given big early leads, and OL held up with little to no pressure).   We will have to think about whether or not we commit to Siemian beyond his final cheap year.

And for the record, I've always said worst-case, I thought he could be a cheap decent backup QB before this year, so it really pains me that we even have to debate this.  But if we go with a new option as our QBOTF, then we also have Chad Kelly able to play next year, we will have to think about this.   Tonight isn't going to necessarily lock in Siemian's future, because this is as good a D matchup as he could get, but failing tonight will certainly raise the possibility that he won't even be rosterable next year (or face real competition for his roster spot, at the very least).

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