FrantikRam Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 On 1/21/2024 at 11:56 PM, vikingsrule said: But why not play for the blocked or missed field goal then? Yea not like the Lions kicker is money, and that would have given better field position if a miss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatKing Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/23/2024 at 8:22 AM, mse326 said: Let's run the 3 scenarios Kick 2 XPT's 95% conversion rate means you have a 90.2% chance of making both going to overitme Assuming a 50% of winning in OT you have a 45.1% of winning the game Kick XPT then Go for 2 95% conversion rate means 1)95% chance you are within 7 and 2)a 5% you are within 8 If 1) then a 55% conversion rate on 2pt conversion means 52.25% chance of winning If 2) then a 55% conversion rate on 2pt conversion means 2.75% of getting to OT and 1.375% of winning So combined you have a 53.625% chance of winning Go for 2 and then XPT or 2 based on result 55% conversion rate means 1)55% chance you are within 6 and 2)45% you are within 8 If 1) then a 95% conversion rate means A) 52.25% you win the game and B) 2.75% you go to OT If B) then assuming 50% chance of winning in OT is 1.375% you win If 2) then a 55% conversion rate means a 24.75% you go to OT and a 12.375% you win So combined you have a 66% of winning Going for 2 twice is the right decision pretty clearly Why are you assuming a 50% chance to win in overtime? If the Bucs would have came back from a 14 point deficit in less than 4 minutes they would have had all the momentum. All that math doesn't take into account the flow of the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank4Drake Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 No matter how people try to justify it, the fact the Bucs could have got the ball back due to Goff taking an early knee. Just because Bowels conceded doesn’t mean Goff was suppose to knee it early. Dude has never been a great HC.. defense wasn’t even good this year, was actually pretty bad. Completely carried by the offense this year. Canales, Baker, Big Mike, Raachad White, the OL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tank4Drake Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, StatKing said: Why are you assuming a 50% chance to win in overtime? If the Bucs would have came back from a 14 point deficit in less than 4 minutes they would have had all the momentum. All that math doesn't take into account the flow of the game. Being on the road offsets momentum to a degree. Plus the Bucs defense couldn’t stop anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 On 1/25/2024 at 7:16 PM, StatKing said: Why are you assuming a 50% chance to win in overtime? If the Bucs would have came back from a 14 point deficit in less than 4 minutes they would have had all the momentum. All that math doesn't take into account the flow of the game. Because study after study has shown that "momentum" doesn't actually exist in the way it's discussed. There is no boost in points expectation for or against on subsequent drives or win %. Flows happen in games because of normal statistical noise. That in no way impacts what is expected in the future Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.