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Mid Iowa

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As it stand now, December 13th 2017, the Saints are the #4 seed in the NFC playoff picture. (#1 Eagles, #2 Vikings, #3 Rams, #5 Panthers, #6 Falcons)

These last 3 weeks are going to be "playing for real" and will have huge implications on where and who we face in the playoffs.

We know the Eagles are a long shot to keep their #1 status now having lost their starting QB to a season ending ACL, and likely the Vikings will capture and keep that #1 Seed.

This means it's up to the Rams to grab and hold the #2. They lost the tie breaker to the Eagles, so the Rams have to win out, and have the Eagles lose out in order to grab #2. That's not likely, but could happen.

So let's talk about the Saints. 12-4 could propel us into the #2 spot, even if the Rams go 12-4 due to conference records. (Rams are currently 6-4, while the Saints are 7-3). If the Rams happen to drop a game, it would undoubtedly be to Seattle, and would drop the Rams division record to (2) in the loss column. Let's face it, the 49ers aren't going to beat the Rams... or are they? The new 49ers with Jimmy G. are now playing real football, and are trying to gain momentum for their offseason.

The Saints (9-4) play:
Jets (home), Falcons (home), Buccaneers (Tampa). The Falcons are obviously the toughest opponent, but none should be over looked.

The Rams (9-4) play:
Seahawks (Seattle), Titans (Nashville), 49ers (home). That's not an easy final 3 weeks.

A Saints #2 spot would give us a much needed bye as we've not had a week off since October 8th (so that will be 12 straight games played by playoff time) and that's huge for these rookies who don't know what 12 straight games is like. This could also put us up in Minnesota in the dome for a Championship game. Not a comfy environment, but at least it's a controlled environment.

Possible upset: The Seahawks are 8-5 and hold the #7 seed. They are pushing hard to get the #6 seed, and have a pretty good chance. The Panthers and Falcons (hold #5 & 6 respectively) could both drop game soon as the Panthers have a strong Vikings team coming in, and the Falcons travel to New Orleans for a rematch against a pissed Saints team.

Seahawks (8-5) play:
Rams (home), Cowboys (Arlington), Cardinals (home). Also a tough schedule, but we know how strong the Seahawks are at home. They're scary strong.

Folks, we have an exciting 3 weeks of football in front of us.

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Is it kinda bad that I want to face the Falcons, Vikings, Rams, and Patriots on the way to a Super Bowl victory?  It would sort of historic I think if you were to beat the 4 teams that beat you during the regular season during a Super Bowl run.

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34 minutes ago, Raves said:

Is it kinda bad that I want to face the Falcons, Vikings, Rams, and Patriots on the way to a Super Bowl victory?  It would sort of historic I think if you were to beat the 4 teams that beat you during the regular season during a Super Bowl run.

I might be in the minority here but while I love the direction the Saints are heading in, I believe we are still a year away and that we arent quite as good as what we may appear to be. It wouldnt shock me to see the Panthers actually win the division and we get in as a wildcard. Yes were talented but were also very young and riddled with injuries and were in the final stretch of a long NFL season.

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45 minutes ago, whodatworm23 said:

I might be in the minority here but while I love the direction the Saints are heading in, I believe we are still a year away and that we arent quite as good as what we may appear to be. It wouldnt shock me to see the Panthers actually win the division and we get in as a wildcard. Yes were talented but were also very young and riddled with injuries and were in the final stretch of a long NFL season.

Can the Panthers even win the division?  I expect us to win at least 2/3, I see Carolina winning at most 2/3, and Atlanta might end up 3-0.  If that happens I'm pretty sure Atlanta gets the division.  Really the only way Carolina has a chance to win the division is if they win all 3 games, including against a Rodgers-led Packers team and Atlanta.

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23 minutes ago, Mid Iowa said:

Yes, they can. I doubt they will, but they certainly can. They'd have to have 1 more win than us due to our sweep of them. 

No way do the Falcons win out. 

Agree they aren't winning out they play us again soon. The Falcons are going to lose that game

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this is unfortunately not accurate, head to head record is the first tiebreaker and L's to the Vikings and the Rams both means we'll need strictly better records than either team in order to jump past them. Also Eagles without Wentz have Giants, Raiders, and the Cowboys still on the schedule - all winnable games even with Nick Foles, but even 2-1 in that stretch isn't unrealistic.

I could see passing the Rams if we win out and they drop one, but that's about it. At this point I'm just concerned 1) winning the division at all, and 2) getting a home game in the wildcard round (hopefully against the Panthers, they've looked like a 6-10 team the two times we've played them this year). I'm frustrated that the Saints are finally contenders again and the NFC is stupid good this year. oh well

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18 minutes ago, Fray32 said:

this is unfortunately not accurate, head to head record is the first tiebreaker and L's to the Vikings and the Rams both means we'll need strictly better records than either team in order to jump past them.

So if team A and team B have the same record, A holds the tie breaker, A automatically takes the seed even if their division and conference record are not as good as B?

I'm just trying to understand, not trying to argue. Thanks in advance.

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yes. But what might be interesting in this case is, if the Rams don't actually win their division, then their h2h win over us won't matter (we'll necessarily be seeded higher assuming the Saints win the South. Between the Seahawks and the Saints if they had the same record, I'm not sure who holds the tiebreaker over who currently. Interesting to keep an eye on, especially with Seattle/LA this week and Seattle only down one game with the chance for a season sweep.

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My concern is that we've quickly gone from a top 5(ish) defense to about 14th. And we've started to revert to a heaving passing team.

Brees has averaged 292.75 yards over the last 4 game (Skins, LA, Carolina, Atlanta). In those 4 games, Carolina was the only team we looked to be in control over.
Similar to the first 2 games (both losses) where he averaged 323.5 yards.

In the 4 games before that, he averaged 269.25 (Green Bay, Bears, Buccs, Bills). In those 4 games, we were pretty balanced, and pretty dominant. Now, not great teams...
Similar to the next 2 games (both wins) where he averaged 244 yards.

Another HUGE difference I see in the first 4 vs. last 4 - Brees was sacked 4 times vs. 9 times. That's not good.

We need, need, need to run, run, run!!

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6 minutes ago, Fray32 said:

yes. But what might be interesting in this case is, if the Rams don't actually win their division, then their h2h win over us won't matter (we'll necessarily be seeded higher assuming the Saints win the South. Between the Seahawks and the Saints if they had the same record, I'm not sure who holds the tiebreaker over who currently. Interesting to keep an eye on, especially with Seattle/LA this week and Seattle only down one game with the chance for a season sweep.

Ah, makes sense. Thanks for the clarity.

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48 minutes ago, Fray32 said:

yes. But what might be interesting in this case is, if the Rams don't actually win their division, then their h2h win over us won't matter (we'll necessarily be seeded higher assuming the Saints win the South. Between the Seahawks and the Saints if they had the same record, I'm not sure who holds the tiebreaker over who currently. Interesting to keep an eye on, especially with Seattle/LA this week and Seattle only down one game with the chance for a season sweep.

It looks like we hold tiebreakers over nearly all the wildcard teams in the NFC.  We already beat some of them, like Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina.  We have a better conference record than the Seahawks as of right now I believe.

Therefore, if worse comes to worse, and we lose out, we need Carolina to also lose out and Atlanta to win the division.  Because Atlanta holds tiebreakers over us while we hold tiebreakers over Carolina.  This would put us at 9-7 and probably 6 seed, since it doesn't look like another 9-7 team will have a tiebreaker over us(other than Rams and Falcons).

So if we lose out, we absolutely need Carolina to lose out, and the Rams and Vikings to win their division.  In this worst case scenario, we may still make the playoffs without winning another game, although it'd basically be a limp into the playoffs.

And honestly, if we lose this weekend to Bryce Petty and the Jets at home, the season is over anyway.

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38 minutes ago, Jlowe22 said:

It looks like we hold tiebreakers over nearly all the wildcard teams in the NFC.  We already beat some of them, like Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina.  We have a better conference record than the Seahawks as of right now I believe.

Therefore, if worse comes to worse, and we lose out, we need Carolina to also lose out and Atlanta to win the division.  Because Atlanta holds tiebreakers over us while we hold tiebreakers over Carolina.  This would put us at 9-7 and probably 6 seed, since it doesn't look like another 9-7 team will have a tiebreaker over us(other than Rams and Falcons).

So if we lose out, we absolutely need Carolina to lose out, and the Rams and Vikings to win their division.  In this worst case scenario, we may still make the playoffs without winning another game, although it'd basically be a limp into the playoffs.

And honestly, if we lose this weekend to Bryce Petty and the Jets at home, the season is over anyway.

I think we beat both the Jets and Bucs... That gives us 11 wins. However the ATL game will be the biggest game of the year for us and will likley decided the division and possibly a 1st round bye. Id love to say im confident the Saints win out but the Falcons game is ALWAYS a dog fight.

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