AZBearsFan Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 (edited) Cap space (per OTC) $46.876M CUTS Whitehair (+9.150) Jackson (+12.560) Blasingame (+1.600) **Like Blasingame, but SEA did not roster a FB in 3 seasons with Waldron at OC Homer (+1.885) Cap space $72.071M TRADE Justin Fields to ATL for 2-43 and a 2025 conditional pick (likely conditions make it a 4 but if he’s a superstar in 2024 could be a 2) Fields trade (-2.771) Cap space $69.3M EXTEND Jaylon Johnson 5/105.5M, $44M guaranteed - Yes, it’s the top of the market (this would be the most in both AAV and guarantees for a CB). I just don’t see a better alternative here for the Bears short or long term. The CB franchise tag is ~$18.5M this year, meaning tagging Johnson for both his age 25 and 26 seasons would cost us roughly $40.7M fully guaranteed and leave us in 2026 with a 27-year old CB hopefully still at the top of the league looking for an even bigger deal where we don't have a tag option and the market value has gone up 15%. This is a premium player at a premium position in what should be the early part of his prime. Those are the guys you DO pay. 2024 cap hit $12M DJ Moore 3/72M extension, $62M new guarantees incl. a $20M signing bonus - Moore is a true #1 entering his age 27 season and is significantly underpaid. This fixes that. Here I’m adding salaries of 20/24/28 in 2026-28, adjusting his 2024 base to $7M (fully guaranteed), fully guaranteeing his existing salary for 2025 as is (just under $15M) and fully guaranteeing $10M of his 2026 salary. $27M year 1, and 3-year cash to him is ~$63M. The value of the extension at $24M AAV matches those of Metcalf and Diggs. He’s a star. 2024 cap hit $11.2M (+4.85) Cap space $62.5M RE-SIGN DT Justin Jones 2/8 - Good depth player who flashed far more in 2023 than 2022. 2024 cap hit $3.5M LB Dylan Cole 1/1.1 - Core ST player. 2024 cap hit $1.1M DE Rasheem Green 1/2 - Depth DE who is adept at blocking kicks. Don’t love him but he adds value and here keeps Dominique Robinson, who does not, off the roster in 2024. 2024 cap hit $2M LS Patrick Scales 2/3 - Super reliable. Don’t rock the boat here. I’m advocating he finally get a multi-year deal! 2024 cap hit $1.5M Cap space ~$60M (not doing the exact math from here on out on which guys at the bottom end of our top 51 cap hits fall off as these guys are added) FA (Waldron connection) C Evan Brown 3 years $15M - Waldron’s Lucas Patrick, but better as a starter than Patrick was. Brown is a league average NFL starting center, which is a huge upgrade. He’s also a capable and experienced guard (Patrick wasn’t this either) who gives 3-position depth should he be beaten out for the starting C job. This pays him in the 2023 Bozeman/Bradbury/Brendel FA salary tier which feels about right for him. 2024 cap hit $4M RB DeeJay Dallas 2 years $3M - Travis Homer replacement as our expected RB3/4. Knows Waldron’s offense having spent the last 3 years in it. Plays on coverage teams, and was SEA’s PR (10.6 yds/return) and KR (25.9 yds/return) in 2023, making him Trent Taylor’s replacement too. 2024 cap hit $1.3M TE Colby Parkinson 2 years $8M - SEA’s TE2 comes here in the same capacity. He’s a solid receiver, and clearly has a role in Waldron’s offense. This is a clear round piece to fit in a round hole at the position. 2024 cap hit $4.75M QB Drew Lock 2 years $9M - Going QB at 1-1 in this mock, so the need for a vet backup who knows Waldron’s system is obvious. Lock also stepped in capably this year when Geno was hurt. This one makes too much sense to me. 2024 cap hit $5M Cap space ~$47M FA (non-Waldron connection) WR Tyler Boyd 3 years $33M - Boyd is an incredibly reliable pass catcher with inside/outside versatility. He’s consistently amongst the league leaders as far as fewest drops. I expect CIN chooses to keep Tee Higgins, and with Chase eligible for an extension this offseason I can’t see them paying all 3. We have the means to add dependable veterans to help out our rookie QB, so we do that here. 2024 cap hit $8.5M DE Dorance Armstrong 4 years $36M - A lot of people will connect AJ Epenesa to us after hiring his DL coach as our new DC, and I like Epenesa for us, but I think Armstrong is the better pass rusher. He has 16 sacks and 17 TFL across the past 2 seasons while never playing 50% of the snaps in Dallas. We need a legit pocket compressing edge across from Sweat, and Armstrong would seem to add exactly that. 2024 cap hit $7.5M S Jordan Whitehead 3 years $18M - Eddie Jackson is moving on here and leaves a starting position open in our secondary. Whitehair brings 89 starts and a SB ring despite being only entering his age 27 season, and brings ball skills to the secondary with 10 INT his past 4 years and at least 2 INT every year since 2020. A solid, position stabilizing piece. 2024 cap hit $5M S Miles Killebrew 2 years $5.5M - Killebrew has been a favorite of mine since his draft cycle. I LOVE the way he hits. He’s just a depth guy on defense but he’s a ST monster (1st team all-pro this year in that capacity). It’s a premium add for a niche role but I don’t care and we have the budget. He’s great at what he does. 2024 cap hit $3M WR Van Jefferson 1 year $3M - I think we’ll take a WR high in this draft, but I don’t want us to be caught with our pants down if we go a different direction or if our target(s) in R1 are already off the board when we get to 1-9. Our depth at WR behind Moore was atrocious in 2023. Jefferson has had experience and success in the McVey offense which should make for an easy transition. He’s in the WR3 mix here. 2024 cap hit $3M WR Laviska Shenault 1 year $1.75M - I mentioned him a few days back in another thread, but Shenault has a lot of what you look for in a depth receiver: versatility, reliable hands and plays on coverage teams. He was previously productive when he had a consistent role in JAX. Likely WR5/6. 2024 cap hit $1.75M OL Cody Ford 1 year $1M - Versatile veteran backup at both tackle and guard with 33 starts in 5 years. His float around the league suggests that the upside is limited but here he competes as depth with Ja’Tyre Carter, who the staff likes enough to keep around but not enough to play over Whitehair for some reason. 2024 cap hit $1M TE Nick Vannett 1 year $1M - The definition of a journeyman, Vannett has been on 6 teams in 8 seasons, with 43 starts. Good enough to stick in the league while not being able to stick in any one place screams TE3 to me, so why not? 2024 cap hit $1M P Matt Ariaza - Compete with Gill, who underwhelmed frequently in 2023. Of the team can look past the off field issues from which Ariaza was completely exonerated he’d be a potentially big upgrade. Gill is JAG. Cap space ~$23M DRAFT 1-1 QB Caleb Williams, USC - No explanation needed. 1-9 OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame - I’d love one of the top 3 WRs here or Bowers, but I think it’s possible all of them go in the top 8. Alt is a cornerstone LT prospect who improves two positions at once (this would shift Braxton Jones to swing tackle where he’d be extraordinary depth on the outside). Keeping our rookie QB upright and arming him with adequate weapons are the two most important things we need to accomplish this offseason IMO. 2-43 C Zach Frazier, West Virginia - 4-year starter (3 at C) who quarterbacks the OL and has showed well in both zone and gap schemes. 4x HS wrestling state champ. Evan Brown solidifies the position, but Frazier gives it a chance to be a real strength for a long time. Look at the 4 teams in the conference championship games this year and you’ll notice that each one of them has a pro bowl center. It’s that important. 3-75 WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington - Overshadowed by his top 10 prospect teammate, Polk is legit. 6’2” with long arms and what are reported to be maybe the best hands in the draft. Inside/outside versatility. He needs to learn some nuance against zone coverage but is effective winning down field. Not a burner, but enough speed. Scouting report reads a lot like Tyler Boyd to me, who I have us signing here. 4-110 RB Emani Bailey, TCU - Explosive but somewhat undersized RB at about 5’9” 205, Bailey is a big play threat every time he touches the ball. Excellent hands make him a long term 3rd down threat. Inexperienced as a pass blocker but willingness is there. Would add a different skill set to our RB room that I think we need. 4-122 DT Jordan Jefferson, LSU - At 6’4” 315, Jefferson is an effective run stuffer with a good motor and developmental pass rush traits. See him coming in as a 2 down rotational player early and potential primary backup to Billings. 5-142 EDGE Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Washington - Developmental edge rusher who flashed some high end success in college but lost momentum after a 2021 Achilles injury. Dropped in coverage a fair share, showing his athleticism. Had a big game against USC this year a few days after losing his father which got a lot of coverage (not a skill but speaks to his love for football IMO). Profiles as a depth rusher with developmental traits. Bleacher Report comps him to Dorance Armstrong, who I have us signing. DEPTH QB Williams, Lock RB Johnson, Herbert, Bailey, Harris WR Moore, Boyd, Polk, Jefferson, Shenault, Scott, Jones TE Kmet, Parkinson, Vannett OT Alt, Wright, Jones OG Jenkins, Davis, Carter, Ford (Brown) C Brown, Frazier DE Sweat, Armstrong, Walker, ZTF, Greene DT Dexter, Billings, Jones, Jefferson, Pickens OLB Edwards, Sanborn, Sewell, Cole ILB Edmunds (Sanborn) CB Johnson, Stevenson, Gordon, Smith, Stroman, Jones S Brisker, Whitehead, Hicks, Killebrew K Santos P Gill/Ariaza LS Scales Edited January 29 by AZBearsFan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I like this one a lot... A lot of cross over with me for FA to be honest...not really high on taking a LT at #9 but wouldn't hate it depending on who is on the board...would still like to do a little more at WR for Caleb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 Just now, Madmike90 said: I like this one a lot... A lot of cross over with me for FA to be honest...not really high on taking a LT at #9 but wouldn't hate it depending on who is on the board...would still like to do a little more at WR for Caleb. My preference at 1-9 is a WR or Bowers, but I think there’s a really good chance that 3 QBs, 3 WR and Bowers all go in the top 8, leaving us at least one of Fashanu or Alt. I like both over every defender in the draft, and didn’t want to trade back. We talk so much about QB contracts, but the top LTs already make $20-25M, whereas last year’s #9 pick (Jalen Carter) has a 4 year AAV of just $5.4M. In this scenario we’d have both OTs, both top 10 picks, under control for about $11M combined for the next 3 years PLUS the rookie QB contract. I’m also quite high on Polk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 16 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: would still like to do a little more at WR for Caleb. With going QB at #1, you are going to have alot less ammo in the draft. Gotta make concessions somewhere, and the way AZ is predicting the board falls WR happens to be it in this scenario. Although Boyd-Jefferson-Polk raise the overall level of the WR Corps quite a bit. And then maybe you can find a contributor (while unlikely a difference maker) in Shenault, Dallas, Parkinson, Vannett or Bailey. In reality, grabbing Brown + Alt + Fraiser + Ford really shows that we would be a major Running offense for 2024, and maybe it evolves going forward. I would say, if they go that route, I wouldnt hate us looking into a RB upgrade. Something Im playing around with. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: With going QB at #1, you are going to have alot less ammo in the draft. Gotta make concessions somewhere, and the way AZ is predicting the board falls WR happens to be it in this scenario. Although Boyd-Jefferson-Polk raise the overall level of the WR Corps quite a bit. And then maybe you can find a contributor (while unlikely a difference maker) in Shenault, Dallas, Parkinson, Vannett or Bailey. In reality, grabbing Brown + Alt + Fraiser + Ford really shows that we would be a major Running offense for 2024, and maybe it evolves going forward. I would say, if they go that route, I wouldnt hate us looking into a RB upgrade. Something Im playing around with. I think the thing is even taking Fields out of there we can still run the ball pretty well...for me we need to find Caleb some weapons to give him a fair short...rather than what we did with Fields early in his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 33 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: C Evan Brown 3 years $15M - Waldron’s Lucas Patrick I believe it was @Madmike90 who was all over him last offseason. I wasnt sold on him coming out of Detroit, but seeing what he did in Waldron's specific offense last year, hes absolutely on the short list this offseason. Especially if you are looking at him short term with Frasier hot on his heels. 35 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: RB DeeJay Dallas 2 years $3M - Travis Homer replacement as our expected RB3/4. TE Colby Parkinson 2 years $8M - SEA’s TE2 comes here in the same capacity. Dallas makes a TON of sense, especially with the Return abilities, but he isnt much of a RB so hes mostly ST only. And I honestly think Parkinson is JAG. I think We could find many TEs with that skill set with a much higher upside. 37 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: QB Drew Lock 2 years $9M - Going QB at 1-1 in this mock, so the need for a vet backup who knows Waldron’s system is obvious. Dont tease me, Drew is my all time Dude, would love him in Chicago 38 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: WR Tyler Boyd 3 years $33M - Boyd is an incredibly reliable pass catcher with inside/outside versatility. WR Van Jefferson 1 year $3M - I think we’ll take a WR high in this draft WR Laviska Shenault 1 year $1.75M - I mentioned him a few days back in another thread, but Shenault has a lot of what you look for in a depth receiver Im all about Boyd, he is the perfect fit of what we need. He can be a #2, and then slide comfortably into the #3 spot eventually The other two are guys I really do like, I watched a ton of Jefferson and wanted Laviska in the draft. The problem is I think we may be waiting on their potential forever. I know we need a new starting Safety, Im still digging into who I think best fits/best upside. And I'll dig into Armstong some more (its tough when its a specialist on a defense like Dallas) but it just seems like Epenesa is the obvious match up at this point. 1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said: P Matt Ariaza - Compete with Gill, who underwhelmed frequently in 2023 I cant imagine it would be a long competition unless Ariaza has completely lost it. Will Ariaza be the largest conraact for a guy who has never taken an NFL snap at this point? Feels like 25 fan bases want him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said: 1-1 QB Caleb Williams, USC 1-9 OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame 2-43 C Zach Frazier, West Virginia 3-75 WR Ja’Lynn Polk, Washington If we are going the CW route, I cant imagine a better outcome than this right here. You immediately have a young, cheap and potentially DOMINANT Offensive Line, which nearly every Young QB with success (regardless of where they were drafted) has had in front of them I do currently have Polk about half as round higher, but he'd be a great get. If he is gone, Id look into possibly taking a chance on Brenden Rice here, obviously depending on he and Williams' relationship Great Mock. It just feels so empty when you see the potential of the other path haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 41 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I think the thing is even taking Fields out of there we can still run the ball pretty well...for me we need to find Caleb some weapons to give him a fair short...rather than what we did with Fields early in his career. Moore and Kmet right now are alone more for Williams than what Fields has had until this season. Ive said it plenty, but if Williams needs just as much help around him as Fields does, then what are we doing? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: Moore and Kmet right now are alone more for Williams than what Fields has had until this season. Ive said it plenty, but if Williams needs just as much help around him as Fields does, then what are we doing? Yes they are more no doubt...but let's not repeat the mistake of taking a talented QB and not putting anything around him or we are back here is 3 or 4 years time again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Yes they are more no doubt...but let's not repeat the mistake of taking a talented QB and not putting anything around him or we are back here is 3 or 4 years time again. Eh, no. Im not going to let that be what Bears fans use as the excuse this time (Im sure they will come up with another, but...). Unless we somehow let Moore walk for nothing, the new young talented QB will have atleast a Top 10 WR and a Top 10 TE, and in AZ's mock here, should have a Great OL as well. If you cant succeed to the point we are again looking at a Rookie QB in 3/4 years, they are just a Bust. And thats not even considering the rest of the additions, as well as whatever we add in the following years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, StLunatic88 said: Eh, no. Im not going to let that be what Bears fans use as the excuse this time (Im sure they will come up with another, but...). Unless we somehow let Moore walk for nothing, the new young talented QB will have atleast a Top 10 WR and a Top 10 TE, and in AZ's mock here, should have a Great OL as well. If you cant succeed to the point we are again looking at a Rookie QB in 3/4 years, they are just a Bust. And thats not even considering the rest of the additions, as well as whatever we add in the following years. Bit of an over simplification for me man...Caleb has to be able to elevate people no doubt but with the resources we have there is no need to make his job harder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Madmike90 said: Bit of an over simplification for me man...Caleb has to be able to elevate people no doubt but with the resources we have there is no need to make his job harder. I get your point here - the more the better for our QB to work with - but I’m giving Moore more money and signing Boyd at $11M per already, and the top 3 WRs and Bowers are gone. I couldn’t justify signing another high end FA WR, likely on a multi year deal. I could see going maybe Legette in R2, but a) I like Frazier more and rate Legette out similarly to Polk; and also I think getting a potentially upper tier C is a faster path to QB development than a WR3. I think a hodge podge of Jefferson/Scott/Shenault/whatever you get from Polk as a rookie, on top of what should be a strong running game behind a good OL, is a really great place for a rookie QB to start. I think Jefferson alone as a clear WR3 would give you enough even if Polk gives you zero in 2024. What I’ve laid out is certainly far more than Fields had in 2022 with ESB and Pettis and a few empty jerseys on the OL (🤮). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 15 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: I get your point here - the more the better for our QB to work with - but I’m giving Moore more money and signing Boyd at $11M per already, and the top 3 WRs and Bowers are gone. I couldn’t justify signing another high end FA WR, likely on a multi year deal. I could see going maybe Legette in R2, but a) I like Frazier more and rate Legette out similarly to Polk; and also I think getting a potentially upper tier C is a faster path to QB development than a WR3. I think a hodge podge of Jefferson/Scott/Shenault/whatever you get from Polk as a rookie, on top of what should be a strong running game behind a good OL, is a really great place for a rookie QB to start. I think Jefferson alone as a clear WR3 would give you enough even if Polk gives you zero in 2024. What I’ve laid out is certainly far more than Fields had in 2022 with ESB and Pettis and a few empty jerseys on the OL (🤮). I am just hopefully this doesn't happen if we get stuck at #9 but I really do see us being in a great position to trade back... The more QBs who look good in the pre-draft process the better...someone is getting Christian Pondered this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I still haven't really watched college prospects yet, but I have heard a lot of guys talk about them. By many accounts Alt is a stud. LT has huge positional value. I would 100% be okay with upgrading there at 9. I like IDEA of adding Odunze or Bowers a lot I am not going to lie, but I wouldn't be disappointed with Alt if that is way board fell. Building an elite OL never really hurts you as a team and teams that have them are seldom bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If we drafted 3 OTs in 3 years what a departure from previous GMs. And I wouldn't be against it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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