Pastor Dillon Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I have come to a conclusion, the TE position is more important than the number 2 WR position. lets look at the data: Chiefs have a top 3 TE of all time, if not the best 49ers have Kittle who was a 1,000 yard TE the Chiefs and 49ers both have elite TEs who are better than the teams #2 WR. go a step further and look at the two teams that lost in the championship games. the Lions, who have sucked forever, drafted Sam Laporta, who had just under 900 yards as a rookie and it changed their team. the Ravens Mark Andrews was on pace for a 900 yard season when he got hurt. Without him, they struggled to score against the Chiefs. take it a step further to the teams that lost in the divisional round: Texans: Schultz - 635 yards Bills: Kincaid - 673 yards Bucs: Otton - 455 yards the Packers had two TEs that combine for 707 yards. They were also the worst team to win a playoff game. Now look at the wild card losers Eagles: Goedert - 592 Cowboys: Ferguson - 761 Browns: Njoku - 882 Rams Kignee - 495 Steelers: Freiermeyer - 308 Dolphins: Smythe - 366 the Dolphins are a case study in what happens if you focus on having two WRs and not a TE there are some exceptions to the rule but for the most part TE success ties to playoff success. 13 TEs had over 600 yards receiving and 6 of them missed the playoffs, but of those 6, 5 of them had major QB issues they dealt with this season. only Evan Engram missed the playoffs while having a solid QB, and they had to have an epic collapse probably caused by injuries to the QB. Look at the last 10 Super Bowl Winners: 49er/Chiefs: Kelce/Kittle Chiefs: Kelce Rams: Higbee Bucs: Gronk Chiefs: Kelce Pats: Gronk Eagles: Ertz Patriots: Gronk Broncos: Owen Daniels Baby!! Patriots: Gronk all of them had a 500 yard TE and other than Daniel’s and Higbee, they all had elite level TEs and those two teams had some of the best defenses of all time. so what am I saying? If you give a team a legit number 1 WR and a Legit TE to go along with the QB, you will be successful. my conclusions: TE is is the 2nd most important skilled position on a modern NFL team. Based on this, I would say the Vikings and Falcons are both going to be playoff teams as soon as they get their QB position fixed. The Jags are already a playoff team that just melted down. Nico and Dell are perfectly fine as our top 2 WRs if we get a high level TE. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: my conclusions: TE is is the 2nd most important skilled position on a modern NFL team. I've actually been leaning in this direction lately. An elite TE who can operate inside and outside the hashes with success absolutely opens up an offense. Historically, you'll see more big wins with Kelce on a team than say a Stefon Diggs or JaMarr Chase. TEs are matchup nightmares, you usually have to dedicate a non-CB to travel with them - and that actually opens up other parts of the field, because a S or LB is forced to stick with the TE. You expect a CB to live on an island, not a LB or S. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lumberjackchris Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 hours ago, ET80 said: I've actually been leaning in this direction lately. An elite TE who can operate inside and outside the hashes with success absolutely opens up an offense. Historically, you'll see more big wins with Kelce on a team than say a Stefon Diggs or JaMarr Chase. TEs are matchup nightmares, you usually have to dedicate a non-CB to travel with them - and that actually opens up other parts of the field, because a S or LB is forced to stick with the TE. You expect a CB to live on an island, not a LB or S. There’s 2 really good ones at the top of this years draft in Bowers and Sander’s 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Drive Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 29 minutes ago, lumberjackchris said: There’s 2 really good ones at the top of this years draft in Bowers and Sander’s Agreed, and is Sanders better than Schultz? Is he better than Fant or Hunter Henry? Give me one of those guys instead of spending a 2nd on Sanders. I agree with Pastor on the great teams usually have great TE's, Especially in a WCO. However this isn't the year to draft a TE with a high pick. I like Sanders and I'm a Horns fan, but give me Wiley/Hollker in the 5th or Heins/Reiman in the 6th over Sanders in the 2nd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy_Flow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Great post Dillon! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 It’s really making me lean towards drafting one in the first round despite knowing we need help on defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObotimusPrime Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: It’s really making me lean towards drafting one in the first round despite knowing we need help on defense. I will agree on TEs being important while also saying that the last 20 years of drafting them in the first round hasn’t fared too well. Can post evidence later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, ObotimusPrime said: I will agree on TEs being important while also saying that the last 20 years of drafting them in the first round hasn’t fared too well. Can post evidence later. Yeah, that's a caviat that needs to be mentioned. Plenty of teams looked for a Kelce or Gronk... and ended up with an Eric Ebron or Noah Fant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 20 hours ago, Kirby Drive said: Is he better than Fant or Hunter Henry? I genuinely don't understand the infatuation with Noah Fant. He's an underperformer his entire career to date. I get his QB situation has been a combination of Drew Lock and Geno Smith, but it isn't like those two haven't been able to feed pass catchers - Cortland Sutton and DK Metcalf both produced as primary guys getting primary attention. Fant has never been able to take advantage of lesser coverage despite his unique athleticism. Why has Fant not broken out yet? Not trying to pick on you @Kirby Drive but genuinely curious on why a few people have said this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 12 hours ago, ET80 said: Yeah, that's a caviat that needs to be mentioned. Plenty of teams looked for a Kelce or Gronk... and ended up with an Eric Ebron or Noah Fant. I agree, but there have also been some major hits in round 1. 2023 - Dalton Kincaid looks like a great player, over 600 yards as a rookie 2022 - None 2021 - Kyle Pitts over 2,000 yards his first 3 seasons 2020 - None 2019 - TJ Hockenson is a 2 time pro bowler with over 3500 yards including 960 this year 2019 - Noah Fant was productive with the broncos and fell off when he went to seattle 2018 - Hayden Hurst never lived up to the 1st round slot 2017 - OJ Howard didnt live up to the hype 2017 - Evan Engram is a beast 2017 - David Njoku is a beast 2016 - None 2015 - none 2014 Eric Ebron - a pro bowler who was solid for several years Its the most undrafted position in the first round of the draft. I would say that you are really likely to get some good years out of a TE with a first round grade on them. I would only call 2 guys total busts in the last 10 drafts, and 6 of them made the pro bowl. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, Pastor Dillon said: I agree, but there have also been some major hits in round 1. I ultimately don't disagree, but a few of these guys had to flounder and really didn't impact much early on - Engram had to fail with NYG before he found Jacksonville, Njoku was a late bloomer who just found his value (once Deshaun was lost for the season, so who knows what happens when that guy comes back) and Hock was more or less stuck in neutral with the Lions before he got a new lease with Minnesota. Furthermore, the guys drafted outside the first? - Sam LaPorta: Was a legit ROY candidate this past season (probably 3rd behind Pukachu and CJ). - Mark Andrews: 3rd round pick from Oklahoma, undersized but incredibly athletic move TE - Isaiah Likely: 4th round pick from Costal Carolina, is probably a top 10 TE stuck behind Andrews (who is top 2-3). - Dallas Goedert: Had some monster years in Philadelphia, but regressed (along with the rest of the Philly offense). - George Kittle: The other TE playing this Sunday, Kittle was a 5th round "blocking only" TE who has morphed into one of the top 3/4 guys. - Gronk/Kelce: 2nd/3rd round picks, respectively. This is just a smattering of guys picked off the top of my head, but I think it illustrates the value spectrum of the position - you can find elite production in the later rounds. I doubt you'll get lucky enough to find a Kittle in the 5th, but if you invested a 2nd or 3rd on a TE, odds are you'll find someone worth starting early. This being said - if the top 10 picks are made and Brock Bowers is still on the board, start putting out phone calls. I'm not saying give up what you gave up for Will Anderson, but consider pick swapping your current 1st along with next years' 2nd. Bowers has absolutely unique talent, you jump to pair a guy like that with Stroud. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pastor Dillon Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 16 hours ago, ET80 said: I ultimately don't disagree, but a few of these guys had to flounder and really didn't impact much early on - Engram had to fail with NYG before he found Jacksonville, Njoku was a late bloomer who just found his value (once Deshaun was lost for the season, so who knows what happens when that guy comes back) and Hock was more or less stuck in neutral with the Lions before he got a new lease with Minnesota. Furthermore, the guys drafted outside the first? - Sam LaPorta: Was a legit ROY candidate this past season (probably 3rd behind Pukachu and CJ). - Mark Andrews: 3rd round pick from Oklahoma, undersized but incredibly athletic move TE - Isaiah Likely: 4th round pick from Costal Carolina, is probably a top 10 TE stuck behind Andrews (who is top 2-3). - Dallas Goedert: Had some monster years in Philadelphia, but regressed (along with the rest of the Philly offense). - George Kittle: The other TE playing this Sunday, Kittle was a 5th round "blocking only" TE who has morphed into one of the top 3/4 guys. - Gronk/Kelce: 2nd/3rd round picks, respectively. This is just a smattering of guys picked off the top of my head, but I think it illustrates the value spectrum of the position - you can find elite production in the later rounds. I doubt you'll get lucky enough to find a Kittle in the 5th, but if you invested a 2nd or 3rd on a TE, odds are you'll find someone worth starting early. This being said - if the top 10 picks are made and Brock Bowers is still on the board, start putting out phone calls. I'm not saying give up what you gave up for Will Anderson, but consider pick swapping your current 1st along with next years' 2nd. Bowers has absolutely unique talent, you jump to pair a guy like that with Stroud. TEs just rarely get a 1st round grade. If there’s one there, being able to Give him a QB like Stroud changes everything. Most of the guys that floundered didn’t have solid QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObotimusPrime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Pastor Dillon said: TEs just rarely get a 1st round grade. If there’s one there, being able to Give him a QB like Stroud changes everything. Most of the guys that floundered didn’t have solid QBs. Yea, if TE is BPA (or close to it) at 23 I wouldn’t necessarily be against it, but who would be there? How do y’all feel about Sanders? I’ve only seen him a handful of times. I just have a feeling there will be better players available at CB,DT, and WR when we pick. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ET80 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 37 minutes ago, ObotimusPrime said: Yea, if TE is BPA (or close to it) at 23 I wouldn’t necessarily be against it, but who would be there? How do y’all feel about Sanders? I’ve only seen him a handful of times. I just have a feeling there will be better players available at CB,DT, and WR when we pick. I like Sanders, I think he's an upgraded version of Brevin Jordan - a move TE who can operate in multiple spots and create mismatches along the defensive front. He's got speed where he can blow by DBs, and size where he can "box out" defenders in short yardage/jump ball situations. His blocking ability isn't exactly a plus attribute - but you don't draft TEs this high for blocking (he's got the right kind of frame and knows how to chip guys as he's releasing into his route - right coaching can turn this into an average attribute in time). Evan Engram or Isaiah Likely is a very solid comp for him, he's going to be a very solid weapon with high end potential in the right situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObotimusPrime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 42 minutes ago, ET80 said: Evan Engram or Isaiah Likely is a very solid comp for him, he's going to be a very solid weapon with high end potential in the right situation. If that’s the case, we should skip out on TE in the first round 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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