What do you do if you're the Chicago Bears?

[dll2000]

 

[Danger]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

Week 4 vs Denver, Fields delivered, even though the Broncos D sucked.

Week 5 vs Washington, Fields delivered, even though Washington’s D sucked. 

Yeah sorry I'll take the rest of the three years of his career as being who he is opposed to that 5 day stretch where he had 8 touchdowns.

[Soko]

2 minutes ago, Danger said:

Yeah sorry I'll take the rest of the three years of his career as being who he is opposed to that 5 day stretch where he had 8 touchdowns.

3 year career vs two games where he showed up = volatile, lots of flashes where Fields has shown strong passing ability

apparently

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Danger said:

Yeah sorry I'll take the rest of the three years of his career as being who he is opposed to that 5 day stretch where he had 8 touchdowns.

One of my issues with Fields, he really just had those two outlier weeks and was pretty mid outside of that.

Week 4/5: 617 yards (308.5 ypg), 8 TD, 1 INT, 9.6 Y/A, 67% comp

His other 11 starts: 1,945 yards (176.8 ypg), 8 TD, 8 INT, 6.3 Y/A, 60% comp

Edited February 27 by NYRaider

[sparky151]

3 hours ago, Soko said:

If 12th is “ok”, then that makes Fields at 20+ really bad, right?

I don’t look at PFF ratings. 

Is it your opinion that Fields showed good passing ability in those games?

Point went over your head.

Commenting on the state of things that there’ll always be fans that’ll spend years blaming everyone but the QB, only for them years later to finally accept that the player isn’t good. 

Fields had a lot of things working against him, as many QBs do. It doesn’t excuse his awful play. 

No, 12th is a bit above average and 20th is a bit below. 

Hm, seems like you are citing PFF ratings in your subsequent post.

Fields showed good passing ability at various times. But not consistently. That's why I described his performance as volatile. 

The way you know a QB isn't going to work out is when he gets as good as he'll ever be. Some here think Fields has reached that point. I don't.

But Field's play wasn't awful. His passing, in aggregate was below average but not that far from other QBs who aren't in danger of being dumped. If the Bears fix the interior O-line, add some more talented pass catchers and Waldron is an upgrade from Getsy, then I expect Fields will show improvement. If he doesn't then I'd be ready to move on. Mainly he needs to cut down on the turnovers (both picks and fumbles) and secondarily raise his completion % to keep drives going. The former is mostly up to him, the latter is mainly a funciton of playcalling and surrounding talent.

 

3 hours ago, Danger said:

3 more years of having $40-50 Million more each year to pay other players rather a QB is a massive gulf in available resources. To say otherwise is foolish contrarianism.

My basis is Justin Fields after his 3rd season has still not shown us any reason to believe he can actually read NFL defenses, if he hasn't at this point, why should I believe he ever will? He might have some physical traits, but he's just not it, he hasn't put it together, and I see zero reason to believe he's going to moving forward. It has absolutely nothing to do with stats, that's a stupid argument for you to even insinuate.

Relying on Fields moving forward is more or less the epitome of sunk-cost fallacy.

Make up your mind. You're trying to simultaneously argue that Fields isn't NFL starting material but also saying he'll cost a 40-50 mil per year contract. Again, feel free to assert your opinions but people who actually do it for a living think Fields has trade value if the Bears don't want him. 

 

2 hours ago, MaddHatter said:

I agree with you - UNLESS, you are 100% on the train that none of this year's QB's are actually going to be better in the NFL, and you can trade down, take a haul, continue to build your team elsewhere, and end up with a Manning in 2026 where you may have 4-5 first round picks.

Well, it's not a bet that none of the QBs will work out, just whichever one the Bears pick instead of taking the haul. Poles was with KC when they traded up and picked Mahomes. Let's see if he learned from Dorsey and Veach.

 

2 hours ago, nagahide13 said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

Highest pocket time of any starting QB with relevant snaps. That is certainly not his issue.

As for "not having anyone except DJ Moore", that would imply he refuses to even look at receivers because they're bad and he knows ahead of time that they won't be open? Including former 1k yard receiver Darnell Mooney. That's bad football, and it's why I brought up Mahomes. He has less talent catching the ball and still manages to spread the ball out. He is not locked on to a receiver pre-snap.

How about Stroud? Middling line and again not a lot of weapons. He doesn't even have a DJ Moore level guy. Stroud elevated everyone around him.

Fields did a lot of scrambling to buy time to throw. Sometimes he didn't see open receivers. Or missed them. But in general, his receivers weren't very good, Moore excepted. Nobody here would dispute that Mahomes is a better QB than Fields. But their passing stats weren't that different. Mahomes had a slightly better Y/A due to a higher completion %. His % of passes that went for TDs was slightly higher and his interception % was slightly lower. But Fields was closer to Mahomes on the TD and Pick % than Trevor Lawrence was. Mahomes was 4.52% TDs, 2.35% interceptions. Fields was 4.32% and 2.43%. Lawrence was 3.72% and 2.48%. 

 

 

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, Sugashane said:

His agent is the same one Jordan Love has, so they may do a short deal like Love did with GB.

Except Jordan Love didn't give up money.  He gave up the guaranteed portion of his contract, but incentives could push it back to where it would have been.

[CWood21]

8 hours ago, dll2000 said:

This is one of few scenarios that could move me off drafting Caleb.  If Wash offered enough.  
 

 

A Bears' blog twitter reporting about the Commanders.   Seems reliable.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, sparky151 said:

The contract thing is trivial because Fields doesn't have a lot of bargaining power at the moment. He'd certainly accept the Jordan-Love-split-the-difference contract if offered. Probably with a couple of option years tacked on at 25 or 30 mil as well. He may well accept the same deal the top pick will get. If you were unaware, the top pick will have higher cap hits combined for 2024 and 2025 than Fields rookie deal has if his 5th year option is exercised. Fields would possibly be more expensive in 2026 and beyond if he plays well.

There's 0% chance his agent allows him to sign that kind of a deal.  None.  There's 2 options with regards to Fields' contract.  Either you extend him for market value (~$35M/year) and hope that he's your guy and the deal ends up being a bargain, or you pick up the 5th year and hope that he doesn't get super expensive in the process.  There's a reason why Jordan Love's deal ended up being what it was.  They basically split the difference between the option being picked up and the option being declined, and in return Jordan Love got a slight pay bump this past season.

[dll2000]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

A Bears' blog twitter reporting about the Commanders.   Seems reliable.

That particular guy isn't some twitter blogger spouting off.    He has actual sources.  

But nice snark.  

[Soko]

13 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

No, 12th is a bit above average and 20th is a bit below. 

Hm, seems like you are citing PFF ratings in your subsequent post.

Fields showed good passing ability at various times. But not consistently. That's why I described his performance as volatile. 

The way you know a QB isn't going to work out is when he gets as good as he'll ever be. Some here think Fields has reached that point. I don't.

But Field's play wasn't awful. His passing, in aggregate was below average but not that far from other QBs who aren't in danger of being dumped. If the Bears fix the interior O-line, add some more talented pass catchers and Waldron is an upgrade from Getsy, then I expect Fields will show improvement. If he doesn't then I'd be ready to move on. Mainly he needs to cut down on the turnovers (both picks and fumbles) and secondarily raise his completion % to keep drives going. The former is mostly up to him, the latter is mainly a funciton of playcalling and surrounding talent.

Okay, my man. Clearly you’re not even responding to what’s written and are just putting your head in the sand. 

I used PFF ratings to show that even your own methodology is flawed. PFF has him with “green” grades for awful performances. I asked which games you believe (not based on PFF, but your own opinion) Fields played well in, you couldn’t answer it. Not going to try to draw blood from a rock.

If bottom 12 QB play to you, in a league that had guys like Browning, Flacco, Minshew, and O’Connell performing comparably, isn’t awful to you, then it is what it is. A guy entering his contract year as a full time starter should have shown a lot more growth than Fields has.

[Tugboat]

7 hours ago, Sugashane said:

While I believe pretty much nothing at this point, if Maye is graded really closely to Williams (or higher) by Poles and the scouts then that would be a no brainer. If you absolutely feel Williams is the better prospect then you don't even look at the deal and pick Williams. 

 

I think this whole Washington thing is really just blowing smoke.  Because of the connections with Williams + Washington + Kliff or whatever.  So it's probably a moot point anyway. 

But yeah...if you value Williams/Maye very similarly or maybe even prefer Maye, then it'd be a no-brainer to even just take a little extra on the side to get your guy anyway.  But that's pretty much the only way i can see the Bears trading that 1st pick.  Period.  You just don't take what you view as an inferior QB prospect just for a little sweetener on the side.  It's a QB-driven league, so you want to give yourself the best possible shot at what you think could be that Franchise QB guy.  You don't get cute with this.  The only way it makes any sense is if you can get a little something on the side, and still get "The Guy" you evaluate as the best QB available at Pick #2.

 

At that point, it becomes an awfully weird deal to make.  If you get into negotiations and Washington realize you might actually prefer Maye anyway...there's nothing stopping them from just standing pat and waiting for Williams to fall to them at #2.  It just doesn't seem that realistic to me...but then, it doesn't hurt to explore your options, do all your "due diligence" on different scenarios that might be out there, even if they're huge longshots.

[CWood21]

31 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

That particular guy isn't some twitter blogger spouting off.    He has actual sources.  

But nice snark.  

And Adam Peters is my wife's cousin.  Again, it's a Twitter blogger.  The Commanders may very well make a trade to move up to #1, but it's not going to be him with the groundbreaking updates.

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

What's your basis for claiming Wiliams is better today than Fields? Simply your dislike for Fields? If you are basing it on comparing Williams college stats to Fields NFL stats, that's a mistake. For what it's worth, Fields had similar passing stats to Williams entering the NFL. Slightly better actually. If it's just your eye test, fine, everyone has an opinion.

I've argued on this already, I don't think the stats being xlose helps the case for Fields at all. Here was my argument:

Both make wow plays but Williams does have a better release, he has accuracy at all levels of the fields and consistently hits his guys in stride more than Fields ever has. Also he has had to carry a much less talented team than Fields, and been given less help schematically. I mean Williams had Addison last year but this year had Washington and Rice as his top two options (Rice is a 3rd-4th round talent at best, likely due to getting a boost from who is father is). Fields had Olave for one year but also had Hill (crap NFL player but damn good college player), had Wilson for two years, and enough depth that JSN barely saw the field. Then the running games are massively in favor of Fields. Dobbins, Sermon, and Teague >>>>> Dye, Jones, Lloyd. Comes out to over 100 yards per game difference.

Then look at the OLs both team walked out. Munford, Jonah Jackson, Myers, Wyatt Davis, and had Dawand Jones, Nicholas Petit-Frere, Paris Johnson, Jr., etc. Over two years that is a LOT of NFL caliber talent, even if some were new and growing. Williams had Vorhees last year and Monheim is a likely late round pick. Who else of note? That's as much why I make the Mahomes comp. He isn't going to be Mahomes, but he has carried a passing attack with little help just like Mahomes did at Texas Tech. He wasn't just lining up with the better group in the trenches almost every game and having mismatches on the outside like Fields was able to. Like Mahomes there was a weak running game so teams lined up KNOWING that Williams was going to carry them to 35-45 points with his arm. Fields made a lot of beautiful throws but didn't have anywhere near the constant pressure that Williams has dealt with.

Now there are bonuses for Fields too. He is taller, thicker, stronger, faster. I do think Williams moves better in the pocket but Fields is just a hoss so he can pull away and do his freak athlete stunts to turn nothing into something. Fields has a more professional demeanor, I don't believe for a second he has the ego Williams has. While Williams has the size advantage he has still found himself injured in each of his three seasons. So his it really helped him?

They also both share some of the same issues. Both like to stretch out plays unnecessarily to get bigger chunks of yards. Great for ESPN but not great for longevity, take the 10 yard pass and let him make someone miss rather than constantly going for the 25 yarder where you have to take a hit. Both are really athletic and utilize it to their advantage constantly. Both hold the ball too long and that can throw off the timing of the routes. Both came from pretty simple offenses that are often 1-2 read options. Both can throw off platform (Williams is more accurate regularly though) because both have a more than enough arm strength. Both have meh-at-best footwork. A lot of times it seems they make their throws a bit harder due to throwing off their back foot or just not resetting when they DO have time. Neither does a really good job of protecting the ball with both hands or sliding early to prevent fumbles. That pisses me off about both of them. Williams can get away with it right now due to not playing in the NFL but that will need remedied quickly.

I like Fields a lot, I drafted him in my real time draft. But I just don't have the faith that he will succeed in Chicago. I think he has to have a very run heavy system (including his passing being mobile) and if he is contained in the pocket then he is a much lesser player. Williams will have the same lumps as all rookies but I feel like he is a better pure passer than Fields - even today with several years less experience. To me that gives him the better chance at being a great player. 

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Except Jordan Love didn't give up money.  He gave up the guaranteed portion of his contract, but incentives could push it back to where it would have been.

???

Where did I say anything about giving up money? I just said he may take the same kind of deal Love did for a team that trades for him.

And even then what you said implies he would have given up money of he failed to meet said incentives.

[Sugashane]

57 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

 

I think this whole Washington thing is really just blowing smoke.  Because of the connections with Williams + Washington + Kliff or whatever.  So it's probably a moot point anyway. 

But yeah...if you value Williams/Maye very similarly or maybe even prefer Maye, then it'd be a no-brainer to even just take a little extra on the side to get your guy anyway.  But that's pretty much the only way i can see the Bears trading that 1st pick.  Period.  You just don't take what you view as an inferior QB prospect just for a little sweetener on the side.  It's a QB-driven league, so you want to give yourself the best possible shot at what you think could be that Franchise QB guy.  You don't get cute with this.  The only way it makes any sense is if you can get a little something on the side, and still get "The Guy" you evaluate as the best QB available at Pick #2.

 

At that point, it becomes an awfully weird deal to make.  If you get into negotiations and Washington realize you might actually prefer Maye anyway...there's nothing stopping them from just standing pat and waiting for Williams to fall to them at #2.  It just doesn't seem that realistic to me...but then, it doesn't hurt to explore your options, do all your "due diligence" on different scenarios that might be out there, even if they're huge longshots.

Agree on all points.  If you feel you have a franchise QB you don't blow it by trying to get something extra. Look at how many playoff games Joe Thomas had (1 his rookie year) and he may be a top 2 LT I've seen in my life. Brandon Marshall was a MONSTER for years, never made the postseason for even a single game. But how many good QBs frequently fail to make the postseason?

Now if you think they're a wash, then get something for nothing. But you have like a 50% chance of busting, and the Bears already have the worst QB history in the entire NFL. Why dance around it like idiots? Just pick your guy and move on. If you get a blue chip guy at 1.9 then great, if not trade down, even of you're only getting a little bit.