What do you do if you're the Chicago Bears?

[Soko]

18 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Of the 48 NFL players who attempted at least 100 passes last year, Fields was 20th in TD%. Among those with a lower % are Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and a bunch of others.  Fields 6.9 YPA is the same as the average for the group. 

I haven't knocked Kmet but apparently you feel he's been disrespected somehow. 

Disrespected, no. It’s just amusing how you frame below average/bad numbers or rankings for Fields as pretty good or “right there with [insert good QB in a down year”, but when it comes to other things (like Kmet being 12th) that that’s just an “ok” weapon. 

Which games do you feel Fields displayed high level passing ability in, aside from Denver, Washington, and NE?

[nagahide13]

Josh Allen had 207 more pass attempts and played half the season with a bad throwing shoulder. He also added 15 TDs on the ground which clearly took away from his passing TDs. He accounted for 44 TDs to Fields' 20.

Hurts had a bad year but also had about 150 more throws. If he continues at his 2023 pace he will be replaced. TLaw was not impressive either but had 200 more attempts. If he continues at his current pace he will be replaced. Browning isn't a starting caliber QB and I don't know why he's even being used in this conversation. He couldn't start for any team in the NFL.

I'll be stoked if someone can tap into Fields' potential. He could be incredibly exciting. He hasn't done it as a passer yet in the NFL and everything we've seen from him as a passer at this level has been poor. He can definitely thrive in the right situation but he hasn't been there and may not get there.

[scar988]

29 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

It depends on how many teams are interested in him. If it's 2 or more then he should fetch a 2nd this year and probably something next year. If only 1 team or no team wants him, then the Bears are stuck. His contract is guaranteed. He's a team-first guy so maybe they keep him as a backup. He could also be traded after the draft for a pick next year, especially if the new team wants his 5th year option. The deadline for that is a few days after the draft.

We've already done this exercise. There's Atlanta, and maybe Vegas, at most, that are interested in him. There won't be a bidding war. They'll get a take it or leave it offer from both teams of at most a 3rd and a future 5th or something like that.

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, sparky151 said:

It's a bad throw but Fields isn't to blame for Herbert getting hurt. It wasn't a hospital pass that lead the receiver into a kill shot. It was just an underthrow that Herbert unfortunately got hurt on

You can church it up however you want. 🤷‍♂️

Fields' made a trash throw that Herbert had to try to catch since it was 3rd down, if he had any accuracy on it at all not only do they get the first down but Herbert doesn't get hurt trying to stop and dig it up.

[squire12]

I am speculating that someone might have Fields in a dynasty fantasy football league.

 

[NYRaider]

The Bears passing on Williams to keep Fields would be such a dumb move. They'd need him to make a historical leap in year 4 as a passer after being one of the worst passers in the league over a 3 year period. 

[sparky151]

The funny thing is that you guys buy the annual QB hype. Caleb Williams is coming to the NFL with similar passing stats as Fields. Teams drafted Zach Wilson and Trey Lance 2nd and 3rd in 2021. Don't you think they wish now they'd take Ja'Marr Chase or Penei Sewell? 

 

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, sparky151 said:

I think we're in agreement that Fields would quickly accept the Love contract if offered. My view is that he's not a sure thing to be the Bears starting QB and has a trade market of maybe 2 or 3 teams. So the best thing for him is to play better while finding a team that will commit to him. The price of 3 mediocre seasons thus far is taking a Geno Smith type deal. If he wants top dollar he has to play better. He knows that as well as everyone else. If he wants the Bears to keep him and trade pick 1, he needs upgrades around him, a better scheme but also needs to do something for the team.

I don't think the Jordan Love is going to be the new norm for 5th year option players.  I think it was an extremely unique circumstance.  And that's coming from someone who thought Jordan Love shouldn't have taken that deal.  And the part about playing better means he gets a better deal is exactly why he's probably more likely to play out that 5th year option and see if he gets that big deal he wants.  You're essentially suggesting he should hedge his bets, and then undersell what his market would be for an extended period.  It's the equivalent of those pre-arbitration deals in MLB where you buy out 2-3 years of FA.  It just doesn't make sense for the players.  A bit more money right now isn't worth giving up your prime in terms of maximizing the amount of money you can earn.  There's no scenario in which the Bears trade the #1 overall pick AND decline Justin Fields' option.  None.  So you're essentially getting him in 2025 for $22.7M.  But you want him to not only cut that guarantee in half (which is almost certainly going to be picked up by either Chicago or whoever is trading for him) AND taking a paycut in future money?  You would be one of the worst agents in NFL history if you told him to take that kind of deal.

4 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Rodgers trade value was limited by his age. He was a 2 year rental. A team trading for Fields hopes they can unlock his talent and keep him as their starter for a decade. That's why they'll agree to the conditional pick. If he hits the conditions, it's worth it for them.

The difference is Rodgers was a KNOWN commodity.  He was still a top ~10 QB in the NFL at the time of the trade even with his "down" year.  You're not giving up future assets HOPING that Fields can be a franchise QB.  If you want a SRP this year, you better be willing to take "peanuts" in terms of additional assets.  If you're willing to take less now, but want to gamble on some upside in future years than you're probably talking about a 3rd round pick going to Chicago.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, scar988 said:

We've already done this exercise. There's Atlanta, and maybe Vegas, at most, that are interested in him. There won't be a bidding war. They'll get a take it or leave it offer from both teams of at most a 3rd and a future 5th or something like that.

Think Pittsburgh might be an option.  But I do think that's something what the market would look like.  I could potentially see something like Fields and a 4th (or some sort of pick going Atlanta's way) for a SRP.

[lavar703]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

The funny thing is that you guys buy the annual QB hype. Caleb Williams is coming to the NFL with similar passing stats as Fields. Teams drafted Zach Wilson and Trey Lance 2nd and 3rd in 2021. Don't you think they wish now they'd take Ja'Marr Chase or Penei Sewell? 

 

No. I think they would do the exact same thing over again. Hitting on a receiver or tackle is great and it helps the team but if you hit on a QB its a franchise changer for 15+ years. My team went from Chris Samuels to Trent Williams. Arguably a nearly 20-year stretch of top 3 OT play and sucked the entire time. I would trade that for a franchise QB in a heartbeat. 

[Nabbs4u]

Let someone mess around and offer Poles a Trey Lance , RGIII type trade offer. I'm sorry I'd take it and run like a thief in the night.

Take all of those assets and build up actual talent on offense, build a defense. The Bears are not a QB away. There's a reason they are picking top 10 with there own pick. They lack talent, depth.

What's getting lost here is the fact Eberflus should of never been retained as HC. If Caleb's Rookie season doesn't go as planned, he will be fired!! 

Then what, the New HC replaces the whole staff and Caleb is in the same boat as Justin Fields with Matt Nagy? Trevor Lawrence with Urben Myer? 2 different offenses his first 2 years? Had He been fired, taking a New QB #1 overall would absolutely be the correct decesion.  New staff,  new QB.

People keep acting like all 3 of these QB's are guaranteed to succeed. They're not. 

Edited March 2 by Nabbs4u

[NYRaider]

12 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

Let someone mess around and offer Poles a Trey Lance , RGIII type trade offer. I'm sorry I'd take it and run like a thief in the night.

Take all of those assets and build up actual talent on offense, build a defense. The Bears are not a QB away. There's a reason they are picking top 10 with there own pick. They lack talent, depth.

The odds that they'll ever have the #1 pick in a draft with three potential franchise QB's to select from again are slim to none. 

Were the Texans a QB away a year ago? They were coming off of 11 wins over a 3 year period when they drafted Stroud last year and instantly became a playoff team. Were the Bengals a QB away when they drafted Burrow coming off of 4 straight losing seasons including the 2-14 year that got them the #1 pick? They went to the Super Bowl in the first year that he was actually healthy and started. 

They went from 3-14 to 7-9 despite pretty terrible QB play from Fields, I don't think they're that far off if they actually find a franchise level QB. 

If they pass on QB this year, Fields flames out, then what? They have to trade up for Quinn Ewers or Cason Beck next year? 

[NYRaider]

15 hours ago, sparky151 said:

The funny thing is that you guys buy the annual QB hype. Caleb Williams is coming to the NFL with similar passing stats as Fields. Teams drafted Zach Wilson and Trey Lance 2nd and 3rd in 2021. Don't you think they wish now they'd take Ja'Marr Chase or Penei Sewell? 

Caleb Williams clearly has special tools 

[sparky151]

16 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I don't think the Jordan Love is going to be the new norm for 5th year option players.  I think it was an extremely unique circumstance.  And that's coming from someone who thought Jordan Love shouldn't have taken that deal.  And the part about playing better means he gets a better deal is exactly why he's probably more likely to play out that 5th year option and see if he gets that big deal he wants.  You're essentially suggesting he should hedge his bets, and then undersell what his market would be for an extended period.  It's the equivalent of those pre-arbitration deals in MLB where you buy out 2-3 years of FA.  It just doesn't make sense for the players.  A bit more money right now isn't worth giving up your prime in terms of maximizing the amount of money you can earn.  There's no scenario in which the Bears trade the #1 overall pick AND decline Justin Fields' option.  None.  So you're essentially getting him in 2025 for $22.7M.  But you want him to not only cut that guarantee in half (which is almost certainly going to be picked up by either Chicago or whoever is trading for him) AND taking a paycut in future money?  You would be one of the worst agents in NFL history if you told him to take that kind of deal.

The difference is Rodgers was a KNOWN commodity.  He was still a top ~10 QB in the NFL at the time of the trade even with his "down" year.  You're not giving up future assets HOPING that Fields can be a franchise QB.  If you want a SRP this year, you better be willing to take "peanuts" in terms of additional assets.  If you're willing to take less now, but want to gamble on some upside in future years than you're probably talking about a 3rd round pick going to Chicago.

Sure, Love had limited game snaps when he made the deal. But the basic situation was similar in that both the Pack last year and Bears this year were coming up on the option year with uncertainty about whether Love or Fields is "the guy". So Green Bay made a deal that gave them an extended audition from Love while he earned more money. Chicago (or a new team if Fields is traded) should want to do the same. 

Regarding trade value, teams will offer a lot for a QB they like and be happy to pay it if he performs. So a trade for Fields is likely to get a 2nd rounder this year plus a conditional pick, if at least 2 teams are interested in him. If there is only one team willing to make him their starter, then it's a different conversation.

 

16 hours ago, lavar703 said:

No. I think they would do the exact same thing over again. Hitting on a receiver or tackle is great and it helps the team but if you hit on a QB its a franchise changer for 15+ years. My team went from Chris Samuels to Trent Williams. Arguably a nearly 20-year stretch of top 3 OT play and sucked the entire time. I would trade that for a franchise QB in a heartbeat. 

Well, the Commanders can just sign Cousins or Mayfield or Wilson in free agency given all their cap space. Those guys come with relatively high floors though 2 of them are mid-30s. 

 

2 hours ago, NYRaider said:

The odds that they'll ever have the #1 pick in a draft with three potential franchise QB's to select from again are slim to none. 

Were the Texans a QB away a year ago? They were coming off of 11 wins over a 3 year period when they drafted Stroud last year and instantly became a playoff team. Were the Bengals a QB away when they drafted Burrow coming off of 4 straight losing seasons including the 2-14 year that got them the #1 pick? They went to the Super Bowl in the first year that he was actually healthy and started. 

They went from 3-14 to 7-9 despite pretty terrible QB play from Fields, I don't think they're that far off if they actually find a franchise level QB. 

If they pass on QB this year, Fields flames out, then what? They have to trade up for Quinn Ewers or Cason Beck next year? 

If they keep Fields as the starter and trade pick 1, they'll have assets next year to work with. They already have Carolina's 2nd rounder. That doesn't mean picking a QB at 1 this year is the wrong choice and next year's group may not be as good, but it's not an unsolvable problem for a team with picks and cap space. 

 

[NYRaider]

Just now, sparky151 said:

If they keep Fields as the starter and trade pick 1, they'll have assets next year to work with. They already have Carolina's 2nd rounder. That doesn't mean picking a QB at 1 this year is the wrong choice and next year's group may not be as good, but it's not an unsolvable problem for a team with picks and cap space. 

If you keep Fields and then presumably pick up his 5th year option you'll be in the same position next year with a significantly worse QB class and likely having to trade additional assets to get in position to take one. 

The most valuable asset you can have is a legitimate franchise QB, it completely changes your trajectory over night. They're flush with cap space and have two FRPs this year at some point you have to get serious about winning and go for it instead of continuing to push it down the road.