What do you do if you're the Chicago Bears?

[DigInBoys]

 

[sparky151]

Any team trading for Fields would do so to make him their starter. That's worth a 2nd rounder in 2024 plus a conditional pick in 2025.

If I were the Bears owner, I'd have fired Eberflus and hired Harbaugh. But maybe the real owners didn't want to pay $16 mil per year or Warren vetoed Harbaugh or something.

What the Bears need is better play from the QB position. That could mean a new QB but it's also possible it could come from Fields. He had no chance in 2021 with a coach who was on the hot seat and trying to save his job with Dalton. Fields was handed the job for 2022 with the new staff but didn't have any weapons or much of an O-line. So he ended up running for his life and nearly broke the single season QB rushing record. Last year they got him a legit WR1 and upgraded a tackle spot. Unsurprisingly, Fields played better though he still had too many mistakes. If the team upgraded the WR2 and 3 positions and C, then it's reasonable to expect improved play from Fields, apart from any gains from coaching or experience. Fields is 3 years into his career but really about 1 year into starting in an actual offense. If the Bears keep Fields, they will have to give him a raise before a rookie but a rookie in the same offense may not play better, especially if they don't get the haul for trading pick #1.

If the Bears fall in love with a QB prospect, they can take him and trade Fields. If the prospect they love isn't Williams, then they can trade pick 1 to the Commanders. Washington has multiple motives to trade up, ranging from bringing the local kid home, firing up the fanbase to sell out their stadium, and getting inside intel from Kingsbury. It might cost something like the Commanders own 2nd this year plus 1st next to get it done but I could see them paying that price. Ask for Ricky Stromberg as part of the deal.

Depending on who they love, they could even trade down again from pick 2. 

Another option is to bring in a veteran QB as the starter. Russell Wilson will be available. Kirk Cousins will be on the market too. Maybe Baker Mayfield as well. Trade options might range from David Carr to Jake Browning and everyone in between. Rule nothing out.

The advantage of say Wilson is that he has a high floor still. He'll be cheap at least for 2024 though want guaranteed money for 2025. With a good supporting cast, he can get the Bears to the playoffs and maybe win a game. Signing Wilson as a stopgap means the team can trade both Fields and pick #1 and maximize assets at other positions. 

If the Raiders want to trade up to 1, the price should be something like Crosby + their first, second, and thirds this year and next. Some of the 2025 picks could be pushed to 2026 if it's a sticking point for them. Bears should tag and extend Jaylon Johnson, which costs about 18 mil to start. Adding Crosby would cost 19 mil for 2024. They should reserve some money for when Wilson becomes more expensive after the Broncos stop paying him. But even some modest free agent shopping is still possible. Sign Curtis Samuel or Tyler Boyd as WR3. Add a veteran center like Andre James or Connor Williams. Maybe a TE like Dalton Shultz or Hunter Henry. 

If the team is drafting at 9 and 13, targets could be Odunze or Bowers at 9 and JPJ or Newton at 13. Lots of possibilities. And a much more talented roster. 

 

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, sparky151 said:

Any team trading for Fields would do so to make him their starter. That's worth a 2nd rounder in 2024 plus a conditional pick in 2025.

Way to talk yourself into managing overpricing Fields.  When was the last time a team moved off their starting QB that at best had mixed results as a starting QB and got a top 64 pick in return?  The only one I could remotely think of is Alex Smith, and he was coming off a better year than Justin Fields did.  Teams are going to look at Justin Fields as a lottery-type of ticket.  They’ll gamble on the chance that he might be their QB.  But they’re not going to give up a valuable pick to do so unless they’re absolutely confident that he’s their QB.  Trey Lance went for what was very likely going to be a late 4th round pick.  That seems like the bare minimum for a Fields trade.  Fields has shown far more than Lance did both good and bad, so you’ll go up from there.  Seems like a 3rd round pick and a conditional ‘25 pick based on team/individual success.

[sparky151]

Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen say hi. Matt Cassel got a 2nd with Vrabel included. 

Depending on how far back you want to go, there are plenty of examples of one team giving up a first or second round pick for a QB that another team didn't want to keep around. 

[squire12]

9 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen say hi. Matt Cassel got a 2nd with Vrabel included. 

Depending on how far back you want to go, there are plenty of examples of one team giving up a first or second round pick for a QB that another team didn't want to keep around. 

Rosen had several rookie contract years remaining, so difference in cheap years makes that comp less comparable. 

[sparky151]

And I think everyone would agree that Fields is better than Rosen. Rosen fetched a 2nd rounder because the bloom wasn't entirely off the rose, not because of his contract. A team trading for Fields will believe he'll thrive in their scheme and will presumably exercise his 5th year option. 

[Soggust]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Way to talk yourself into managing overpricing Fields.  When was the last time a team moved off their starting QB that at best had mixed results as a starting QB and got a top 64 pick in return?

Just curious - What do you think Trevor would go for, if the Jags were to hypothetically move him this offseason?

[squire12]

50 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

And I think everyone would agree that Fields is better than Rosen. Rosen fetched a 2nd rounder because the bloom wasn't entirely off the rose, not because of his contract. A team trading for Fields will believe he'll thrive in their scheme and will presumably exercise his 5th year option. 

I think the bloom not being off the rose partly because Rosen had 3 years on his rookie contract.  

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, Soggust said:

Just curious - What do you think Trevor would go for, if the Jags were to hypothetically move him this offseason?

 

I say this with genuine confidence...The Jaguars would not trade Lawrence for the #1 pick in this draft+++.  They simply have no reason whatsoever to even consider trading him.  He's already led the team to a Playoff win.  That's more than all but a very small handful of QBs can boast.  That's more that guys like Herbert can even claim.  And the fact it was a spectacular comeback victory where he just put the whole *** team on his shoulders and carried them to victory just reinforces that.

 

 

Justin Fields is a guy who has sucked.  Repeatedly.  With the same persisting problems through multiple systems and coordinators and coaches.  He's had brief flashes of being an interesting "Running QB" but that's absolutely it.  He's like two thousand leagues under the level that Lawrence has already established.

 

Their value is not even remotely in the same stratosphere.  It's a Franchise QB with some speedbumps vs a Reclamation Project QB who might well just be unable to process the game at an NFL level.

 

I think at some point, the scarcity of QBs and and the questions on the "second tier" QBs in the draft probably pushes somebody to throw a 2nd round pick at the Bears for Fields.  But there's a difference between "desperation" and "unequivocally unavailable" in terms of value that is like we're talking about different galaxies here.

[Soggust]

10 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

I say this with genuine confidence...The Jaguars would not trade Lawrence for the #1 pick in this draft+++.  They simply have no reason whatsoever to even consider trading him.  He's already led the team to a Playoff win.  That's more than all but a very small handful of QBs can boast.  That's more that guys like Herbert can even claim.  And the fact it was a spectacular comeback victory where he just put the whole *** team on his shoulders and carried them to victory just reinforces that.

 

 

Justin Fields is a guy who has sucked.  Repeatedly.  With the same persisting problems through multiple systems and coordinators and coaches.  He's had brief flashes of being an interesting "Running QB" but that's absolutely it.  He's like two thousand leagues under the level that Lawrence has already established.

 

Their value is not even remotely in the same stratosphere.  It's a Franchise QB with some speedbumps vs a Reclamation Project QB who might well just be unable to process the game at an NFL level.

 

I think at some point, the scarcity of QBs and and the questions on the "second tier" QBs in the draft probably pushes somebody to throw a 2nd round pick at the Bears for Fields.  But there's a difference between "desperation" and "unequivocally unavailable" in terms of value that is like we're talking about different galaxies here.

I was only comparing them because the quote was -

"When was the last time a team moved off their starting QB that at best had mixed results as a starting QB and got a top 64 pick in return?"

Trevor has clearly had mixed results (low lows, decent highs) and, I agree with you even as a hater, that Trevor would return higher than a 2nd round pick.

I understand everyone likes him more than Fields but their stats are a lot more comparable than Rosen or a guy who hasn't been able to get more than 4 starts in Lance, so it felt like if we are including them in the comparison, then certainly Lawrence fits the discussion as a more rich man's example.

Edited February 17 by Soggust

[sparky151]

16 hours ago, Soggust said:

Just curious - What do you think Trevor would go for, if the Jags were to hypothetically move him this offseason?

I'd bet the Jags could get a mid to late 1st for Lawrence but doubt they would take it. I don't rate TL very highly but Jax has been starving for a good QB for years so he's their precious and they're not giving him up.

 

16 hours ago, squire12 said:

I think the bloom not being off the rose partly because Rosen had 3 years on his rookie contract.  

It was more that the rest of the league thought the Cards had mishandled him. The Dolphins paid the price to find out he just wasn't good at all. Being inexpensive was nice but they gave up the capital in hopes he was the answer. He wasn't.

 

 

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, Soggust said:

I was only comparing them because the quote was -

"When was the last time a team moved off their starting QB that at best had mixed results as a starting QB and got a top 64 pick in return?"

Trevor has clearly had mixed results (low lows, decent highs) and, I agree with you even as a hater, that Trevor would return higher than a 2nd round pick.

I understand everyone likes him more than Fields but their stats are a lot more comparable than Rosen or a guy who hasn't been able to get more than 4 starts in Lance, so it felt like if we are including them in the comparison, then certainly Lawrence fits the discussion as a more rich man's example.

 

I get it.  I just think it's a foolish exercise to even engage in.  They're just such wildly different situations, i don't think it sheds any actual light on the Fields scenario.

The critical difference is...the Jaguars have reason to still have complete faith in Lawrence finding more consistency and becoming a Top-5 QB.  It may or may not happen, but they have every incentive in the world to carry on with him and find out.  They simply have no reason whatsoever to trade him.  Period.

 

Whereas Fields, even the biggest supporters have to admit that at this point, he's just never going to be a Top-5 caliber Passer.  Heck, Top-10 even seems delusional.  There are things to like with his athletic ability as a runner, but that can only carry a team so far.  The reality is...Lawrence is a guy who has given reasons to believe that he still could become that elite quarterback he was projected to become.  The flashes are there, it's just inconsistent and it's been a bumpy road for him. 

Fields has shown repeatedly that he still has the same flaws he's always had and hasn't ever shown even little flickers of Top-10 Passer ability as a Pro.  He's pretty conclusively demonstrated to me at least, and i think most people watching...that he simply isn't going to become a real "Franchise Quarterback".  Certainly not with the Bears.  The hope for him at this point is...you can stack insane talent all around him, simplify the offense enough that he can use his legs and make very limited reads, and have it all be "good enough" to make a serious run.  If things go well.

 

That makes Fields a very "available" player.  Whereas Trevor Lawrence is just...literally no reason to trade him.  The Jaguars and their fans are still absolutely fully on board with the guy.  Not seeing any reason to even think about moving on from him.  That's a difference that creates such a gulf in "trade value" that it's basically pointless to even talk about.  It's like speculating about Justin Herbert's "trade value" or what Joe Burrow would be worth because Browning had a little hot streak.  It's meaningless, because there's no conceivable reason to trade them.

 

2 hours ago, sparky151 said:

I'd bet the Jags could get a mid to late 1st for Lawrence but doubt they would take it. I don't rate TL very highly but Jax has been starving for a good QB for years so he's their precious and they're not giving him up.

 

It was more that the rest of the league thought the Cards had mishandled him. The Dolphins paid the price to find out he just wasn't good at all. Being inexpensive was nice but they gave up the capital in hopes he was the answer. He wasn't.

 

 

 

As above...i don't think you can even really assign a "value" to what the Jaguars would get for Lawrence in trade at this point.  He's simply one of those "Not Available" players.  Like i said...i don't think there's any reason to think they'd even swap him for the #1 Overall pick in this draft.  They have no reason to do so.  He's already established that he's at absolute worst, in a not great situation, a solidly above average QB...with flashes of elite potential.  No reason to think about moving on from that to roll the dice on a complete unknown that doesn't even have a theoretically higher "ceiling".  It'd be dropping the floor out from underneath completely...for no appreciable movement on the "ceiling".

 

So sure...you can wildly speculate at what another team might trade for Lawrence, but it's utterly irrelevant because there's zero chance the Jaguars would accept whatever that value is assessed to be.  Making it a totally futile and completely meaningless endeavor.

 

 

With Fields...he's definitely available, with all sorts of reasons why the Bears would want to move on from him.  Which makes discussing his "value" a more worthwhile question.  But that still has to be gauged relative to other QBs that teams have actually had reasons to move on from.  Like Rosen.  Who i'd agree, was valued that way because there were reasons to convince yourself that maybe his development had just been completely botched by Arizona.  Fields has less of that "mystique" left around him, but also hasn't been as useless as Rosen.  Which to me, probably balances out at...a ~Day2 pick, fairly similarly.  Especially where you start to weigh Fields against the alternatives in the draft.  That feels like about where his value probably falls...in terms of "higher floor" but "known limited ceiling", compared to the guys that you're likely to see there.  Penix, Rattler, maybe Nix if he doesn't get pushed up.  Those are the sort of value comparables for Fields in that Day2 pick range.

But i think that "value" for Fields probably varies widely from team to team.  How comfortable they are with their ability to put him in a perfect scenario and whether that is going to be "good enough".  

[Soggust]

1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

Whereas Fields, even the biggest supporters have to admit that at this point, he's just never going to be a Top-5 caliber Passer.  Heck, Top-10 even seems delusional.  There are things to like with his athletic ability as a runner, but that can only carry a team so far.  The reality is...Lawrence is a guy who has given reasons to believe that he still could become that elite quarterback he was projected to become.  The flashes are there, it's just inconsistent and it's been a bumpy road for him. 

I don't know that they would. 

I think you're looking at Fields the way non-Jags fans look at Trevor. With a skeptical eye based on production.

But if I told you "well Fields has shown top 5 flashes in the WAS + DEN games", you wouldn't necessarily take that as gospel, given the rest of his career to date.

Even strictly as passers, Trevor has a career 85 rating. Justin has a career 82.3. You will argue bad coaching from Meyer, and rightfully so, but Fields hasn't had good coaching either. He's had awful o-line and, until this year, no WRs at all. He's been in crap situations, just like Trevor. 

So if I'm an objective fan of another team with no real skin in the game, I don't know how I make excuses for one guy and not the other.

And remember - I think Trevor is better. I just think he's a closer comp than Rosen or Lance

[sparky151]

Fields is available because the Bears have the top pick. If they only had pick 9 plus 50 mil of cap space, it would be a different debate in Chicago. It would be about upgrading the WR corps and O-line. There might be a few people saying to use pick 9 on McCarthy or Penix or whomever. But they would be in the minority. It would be about getting better play from Fields. 

If the Jaguars had the top pick, they'd be debating taking MHj vs resetting at QB.

[Dr A W Niloc]

      One of my favorite maxims is "Good teams trade up, bad teams trade down."

      28th in aggregate talent, third in cap space, I fill as many holes as I can before April 25th.  Then I decide whether or not a franchise QB and an Edger makes the Bears a contender for first in the tough NFC-North.

      If so I sit and take Caleb at #1.  Assuming Joe Alt is gone at #9 I take Latu.

      If the Bears are still a year away I trade down as far as I have to in order to land three firsts.  Meanwhile, I take a couple of flyers at QB on the weekend.

      Justin Fields?  I'd play hardball, insisting on a first round pick.  I won't get it now but I can try again in midseason after a few injuries.  With that salary, as Pearl Gray (who loves her paradoxes) would say, "he's not worth giving away."