2018 Salary Cap outlook

[navysaintsfan]

https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/2017/12/14/16777722/new-orleans-saints-football-projected-2018-nfl-salary-cap-free-agency-drew-brees-malcolm-butler

So give this a look.

 

The great crew at OverTheCap.com have so-far operated with a more conservative projection of $178-million. Per their tracking of player transactions and in-house calculations, they describe a nice situation for the 2018 Saints:

• Effective Cap Space: $33,480,417 (ranked 16th out of 32)
• Dead Money: $6,965,970 (ranked 5th out of 32)
• Players Under Contract: 49 (ranked 8th out of 32)

So, this in mind, Is Drew worth it? Is resigning him to what is likely the last deal he will get worth it for us? Lets be honest, his play has declined. It has been steadily for a few years, but it is most obvious this season. The long ball is so off now, and even his intermediate is no sure thing. On top of that, he is making so many mental errors. If it were not for the run game this season Brees would not be looking as good as he is right now. So, is it worth re-investing in someone who will still want big bucks? I feel like he would have the nerve to still want $15-20+ right now. And he is NOT worth that anymore.

[Dome]

The problem is, Brees contract has something like $12m guaranteed extended into 2019 and 2020 on some sort of bonus, and that will be accelerated into the 2018 when his contract is voided, unless he resigns before that.

So without Brees, our cap space is closer to $21-$22m after we pay him those bonuses.

I think resigning him is about 95% likely at this point but I think it happens after his contract voids. So you can already figure that $12m into his 2018 Salary.

[JMG5]

I hope we don't make the mistake of paying him big money. I know we will though... 

[whodatworm23]

11 hours ago, domepatrol91 said:

The problem is, Brees contract has something like $12m guaranteed extended into 2019 and 2020 on some sort of bonus, and that will be accelerated into the 2018 when his contract is voided, unless he resigns before that.

So without Brees, our cap space is closer to $21-$22m after we pay him those bonuses.

I think resigning him is about 95% likely at this point but I think it happens after his contract voids. So you can already figure that $12m into his 2018 Salary.

Brees is due that bonus but I dont feel its a reason to lock ourself into another ridiculous contract for a aging declining player. 

 

If you look at it... We are set up to absorb Brees hit if we were to move on (which we wont) however any extention north of 20 per season with out an out cluse for the team would be completely reckless by our front office and Brees and Condon track record says that they will demand 25+ per with a huge buy out in the first 2 years of the deal.

 

I personally dont think Brees is such a slam dunk to be resigned this offseason. I feel it will ultimatley be up to him to accept the deal Loomis offers or decide to finish out his career elsewhere. 

[navysaintsfan]

Next player in question is one we loved, but has shown as of late he can't keep himself healthy. Delvin Breaux. Hometown hero and local fave, still relatively young, but seems as brittle as glass. He's still relatively young, and is at least as good as Crawley is right now (obviously he is no Lattimore). His contract has been small so far and I feel like we could resign him for "peanuts". Obviously more than his current 3 year deal, but not something too large since he has shown a big injury history. If healthy, him Crawley, and Lattimore seems insane. If you asked me right now "Do we resign Terron Armstead" I would say in a heartbeat. He has the same injury concerns and costs a lot more. I feel like signing Breaux to a new contract is worth it if we get him back on the field healthy for 2018. The question remains though, how long would he hold up before being out again?

 

Dang, didn't realize he was 28. For some reason I thought he was a bit younger. Even still, I would take him healthy at 28/29...if he can get healthy. Would be a cheaper option than most other FAs. We need CB depth.

[navysaintsfan]

And another question...does ANYONE think the Saints will still move on Malcolm Butler? Great friend of mine is a born and raised Boston guy and lives, breathes, and sleeps Pats football. He 100% believes Butler is a Saint this offseason. Still says "The terms were pretty much agreed on by Butler and NO, the numbers are already there, why would they not?". It wouldn't shock me, but with the play of Lattimore and the emergence of Crawley, I am not sure such a signing is needed, but Saints need CB depth BADLY. Past Crawley, PJ Williams is serviceable but not reliable. And I would imagine a Lattimore, Butler, Crawley combo would fare pretty well in this league.

 

Butlers numbers this season are 52 Tackles, 2 FFs, 2 INTs, and 11 PDs.

[whodatworm23]

2 hours ago, navysaintsfan said:

And another question...does ANYONE think the Saints will still move on Malcolm Butler? Great friend of mine is a born and raised Boston guy and lives, breathes, and sleeps Pats football. He 100% believes Butler is a Saint this offseason. Still says "The terms were pretty much agreed on by Butler and NO, the numbers are already there, why would they not?". It wouldn't shock me, but with the play of Lattimore and the emergence of Crawley, I am not sure such a signing is needed, but Saints need CB depth BADLY. Past Crawley, PJ Williams is serviceable but not reliable. And I would imagine a Lattimore, Butler, Crawley combo would fare pretty well in this league.

 

Butlers numbers this season are 52 Tackles, 2 FFs, 2 INTs, and 11 PDs.

Would not shock me in the least if Butler is a Saint and Breaux is a Pat in 2018.

[JMG5]

3 hours ago, navysaintsfan said:

And another question...does ANYONE think the Saints will still move on Malcolm Butler? Great friend of mine is a born and raised Boston guy and lives, breathes, and sleeps Pats football. He 100% believes Butler is a Saint this offseason. Still says "The terms were pretty much agreed on by Butler and NO, the numbers are already there, why would they not?". It wouldn't shock me, but with the play of Lattimore and the emergence of Crawley, I am not sure such a signing is needed, but Saints need CB depth BADLY. Past Crawley, PJ Williams is serviceable but not reliable. And I would imagine a Lattimore, Butler, Crawley combo would fare pretty well in this league.

 

Butlers numbers this season are 52 Tackles, 2 FFs, 2 INTs, and 11 PDs.

I don't really want Butler. He has been beaten a lot this season. I don't see us spending high dollar on a CB when we have Crawley and Lattimore. We need depth, but I don't think we need to spend that kind of money to get it.

[whodatworm23]

1 hour ago, JMG5 said:

I don't really want Butler. He has been beaten a lot this season. I don't see us spending high dollar on a CB when we have Crawley and Lattimore. We need depth, but I don't think we need to spend that kind of money to get it.

I love where we are at... I say continue to build through the draft and make wise FA decisions on low key big upside players, ie Fairley, Klein, Oakfor, Te'o.

[Raves]

I could see the potential and the benefit of adding Butler to our secondary.  Crawley has been good but the Atlanta game he was downright abused by Sanu and there are going to be more situations going forward where he just won't match-up physically even to another WR.  I think another aspect that needs to be discussed is how this might affect our decision going forward in regards to Vacarro as well.  Right now he is used and at his best playing the slot WR closer to the line, basically taking the place of our nickel CB, with Butler and Lattimore as our #1 and #2 this would put Crawley as out nickel CB and make Vacarro expendable if we decide he's not worth the money, effectively transitioning where we might be spending a similar amount of money, from Kenny to Butler instead.

 

Also having 2 elite CBs help any and all pass rush talent we might be looking towards as it would give them more time to reach the QB so if we can't get an elite DE to sign with us, we could could still improve the pass rush/defense through Butler and look to build at DE through the draft which is normally an easier position to transition from college to the NFL.

[JMG5]

2 hours ago, Raves said:

Also having 2 elite CBs help any and all pass rush talent we might be looking towards as it would give them more time to reach the QB so if we can't get an elite DE to sign with us, we could could still improve the pass rush/defense through Butler and look to build at DE through the draft which is normally an easier position to transition from college to the NFL.

But is Butler elite?

[Raves]

1 hour ago, JMG5 said:

But is Butler elite?

He's had seasons of elite and at the very worst he's probably in the top 15-20 of CBs which out of 64 starting CBs really isn't bad at all.

[JMG5]

2 hours ago, Raves said:

He's had seasons of elite and at the very worst he's probably in the top 15-20 of CBs which out of 64 starting CBs really isn't bad at all.

He hasn't been that great this year. The last couple of years he has been pretty good, but not this year. It's either a sign of decline or maybe he isn't being used the same. Either way, do you think it's worth taking a risk on what could be a declining player? I don't, but if they do sign him then I hope I'm wrong about him. I would just much rather them continue the youth movement.

[Raves]

9 minutes ago, JMG5 said:

He hasn't been that great this year. The last couple of years he has been pretty good, but not this year. It's either a sign of decline or maybe he isn't being used the same. Either way, do you think it's worth taking a risk on what could be a declining player? I don't, but if they do sign him then I hope I'm wrong about him. I would just much rather them continue the youth movement.

He's only 27 y/o and the entire Patriots defense has been subpar so I would put it more on the overall product than just him seeing as how he's been more or less consistently good and you would expect him to be trying to ball out otherwise.

[Mid Iowa]

11 hours ago, Raves said:

He's only 27 y/o and the entire Patriots defense has been subpar so I would put it more on the overall product than just him seeing as how he's been more or less consistently good and you would expect him to be trying to ball out otherwise.

So we give benefit to our entire defense when Lattimore is playing good, so why don't we have the same attitude about Butler?

I personally think he is and was overrated. He was a shiny thing after the super bowl pick, and that's about it.