Your Draft Hot Takes

[Ozzy]

On 2/1/2018 at 6:07 AM, VanS said:

This is the best RB draft ever.  The top-end talent is elite (with Saquon Barkley being the most talented RB prospect since Barry Sanders) and so is the depth.  There are a lot of future starters and pro-bowlers in this class. 

Thus far in the process here are my favorites:

1. Saquon  Barkley (Penn State)

2. Rashaad Penny (San Diego State)

3. Ronald Jones II (USC)

4. Mark Walton (Miami)

5. John Kelly (Tennessee)

6. Kalen Ballage (Arizona State)

7. Sony Michel (Georgia)

8. Derruis Guice (LSU)

9. Bo Scarbrough (Alabama)

10. Kerryon Johnson (Auburn)

 

The best ever?  Um no, 2008 had what five 1st round draft picks at RB.  Heck could argue 2015 was better with a lot of very talented players and but will see.  This is a good group but if you took Barkley out, who is one of the most rare RB prospects to ever come into the NFL since Adrian Peterson, that changes the group totally.   And why do you have Guice that low?  You think all those other guys will be drafted ahead of Guice?  I feel Guice and Barkley will be the two backs picked in the 1st round and that is it.  Overall not sure this years group has the star power of some years in the past.  Not to mention way back in the day of players I never saw play but were fine running backs as well.   Oh and Scarbrough has potential but Royce Freeman is a better runner by far as a power back with good size, Scarbrough is very raw still and not refined, still talented though.

 

 

2008

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johson

Matt Forte

Ray Rice

Kevin Smith

Jamaal Charles

Steve Slaton

Justin Forsett

Tim Hightower

 

 

2015

Todd Gurley

Melvin Gordon

TJ Yeldon

Ameer Abdullah

Tevin Coleman

Duke Johnson

David Johnson

Matt Jones

Jeremy Langford

Javoris Allen

Jay Ajayi

 

 

 

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

 

The best ever?  Um no, 2008 had what five 1st round draft picks at RB.  Heck could argue 2015 was better with a lot of very talented players and but will see.  This is a good group but if you took Barkley out, who is one of the most rare RB prospects to ever come into the NFL since Adrian Peterson, that changes the group totally.   And why do you have Guice that low?  You think all those other guys will be drafted ahead of Guice?  I feel Guice and Barkley will be the two backs picked in the 1st round and that is it.  Overall not sure this years group has the star power of some years in the past.  Not to mention way back in the day of players I never saw play but were fine running backs as well.   Oh and Scarbrough has potential but Royce Freeman is a better runner by far as a power back with good size, Scarbrough is very raw still and not refined, still talented though.

 

 

2008

Darren McFadden

Jonathan Stewart

Felix Jones

Rashard Mendenhall

Chris Johson

Matt Forte

Ray Rice

Kevin Smith

Jamaal Charles

Steve Slaton

Justin Forsett

Tim Hightower

 

2015

Todd Gurley

Melvin Gordon

TJ Yeldon

Ameer Abdullah

Tevin Coleman

Duke Johnson

David Johnson

Matt Jones

Jeremy Langford

Javoris Allen

Jay Ajayi

 

I don't care about where guys are drafted.  I'm simply evaluating talent and how much of an impact they will have on the league.  Sure there 2018 class won't have 5 first round picks like 2008.  But I think you'll have more guys make a huge impact on the league than you saw in the 2008 draft.

I'm not a huge fan of Derrius Guice.  I saw him a lot at LSU.  He's not great at breaking tackles and he's also a little bit of a small back.  With the blocking in college that gave him huge holes to run through, he was able to use his speed to run away from defenders most of the time.  However, I didn't see much in the way of ability to create something out of nothing (which will be critical in the NFL).

Guice is a good prospect.  I just don't see him as great as most other people do.

[Ozzy]

26 minutes ago, VanS said:

 

I don't care about where guys are drafted.  I'm simply evaluating talent and how much of an impact they will have on the league.  Sure there 2018 class won't have 5 first round picks like 2008.  But I think you'll have more guys make a huge impact on the league than you saw in the 2008 draft.

I'm not a huge fan of Derrius Guice.  I saw him a lot at LSU.  He's not great at breaking tackles and he's also a little bit of a small back.  With the blocking in college that gave him huge holes to run through, he was able to use his speed to run away from defenders most of the time.  However, I didn't see much in the way of ability to create something out of nothing (which will be critical in the NFL).

Guice is a good prospect.  I just don't see him as great as most other people do.

There is no guarantee this years class of RBs will have more of an impact than these other two classes I mentioned.  Sure where they are drafted does not really matter in the end, but saying a guy is a 1st round talent does not mean he has to be a 1st round pick.   Fact that few backs in this class are considered top end prospects or top 50 prospects says something I think.  Sure the middle of the back guys, a few have star potential but a few will obviously be a bust as well.  Good mid to late round depth but elite talent this group is lacking compared to years past.  And again take Barkley out of the group it completely changes the perspective of them as a group.

 

I would be shocked to see the 2018 RB class be better than 2015, almost all of the 2015 guys are producing and are pretty solid backs in the league when healthy and a few great backs.

 

As for Guice, you think that LSU had a good offensive line this year?  How you figure that?  They had to rely on Charles and Ingram as freshman to fill holes they had, some of which was they had a few solid players transfer out from last year on that OL.  They still have talent but in no way did they make Guice look good just based on blocking.  And Guice is a small back?  I think he has great power and runs with very impressive toughness and strength, he cannot break tackles?  I did not see that, he is one of the toughest physical backs in the draft easily.  Sure he might not be Barry Sanders out there but he can break tackles and runs very hard and arguably as hard as any.  Would be quite surprised to see him not be a 1st round pick.  Had a solid year despite being injury on and off throughout the season, that is why Darrel Williams got so many chances and did quite well with the opportunities.  

[VanS]

21 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

There is no guarantee this years class of RBs will have more of an impact than these other two classes I mentioned.  Sure where they are drafted does not really matter in the end, but saying a guy is a 1st round talent does not mean he has to be a 1st round pick.   Fact that few backs in this class are considered top end prospects or top 50 prospects says something I think.  Sure the middle of the back guys, a few have star potential but a few will obviously be a bust as well.  Good mid to late round depth but elite talent this group is lacking compared to years past.  And again take Barkley out of the group it completely changes the perspective of them as a group.

 

I would be shocked to see the 2018 RB class be better than 2015, almost all of the 2015 guys are producing and are pretty solid backs in the league when healthy and a few great backs.

 

As for Guice, you think that LSU had a good offensive line this year?  How you figure that?  They had to rely on Charles and Ingram as freshman to fill holes they had, some of which was they had a few solid players transfer out from last year on that OL.  They still have talent but in no way did they make Guice look good just based on blocking.  And Guice is a small back?  I think he has great power and runs with very impressive toughness and strength, he cannot break tackles?  I did not see that, he is one of the toughest physical backs in the draft easily.  Sure he might not be Barry Sanders out there but he can break tackles and runs very hard and arguably as hard as any.  Would be quite surprised to see him not be a 1st round pick.  Had a solid year despite being injury on and off throughout the season, that is why Darrel Williams got so many chances and did quite well with the opportunities.  

We'll just have to wait and see.  I said last year Alvin Kamara was the best RB in the 2017 draft.  I was attacked heavily for it.  One year later, I'm seeing most people agreeing with me.

I like the talent in the 2018 RB class.  I see 5 elite talents: Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones II, Mark Walton, and John Kelly.  All 5 look like pro-bowl RBs.  With Saquon Barkley being the best RB I've ever seen.

RB is the easiest position to transition in the NFL.  So we should know pretty quickly is this is an all-time great class.

[Rich7sena]

24 minutes ago, VanS said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  I said last year Alvin Kamara was the best RB in the 2017 draft.  I was attacked heavily for it.  One year later, I'm seeing most people agreeing with me.

You also said Dobbs and Kaaya are the top 2 QBs, James Connor the 2nd best RB, and Cameron Sutton, Teez Tabor, and Damontae Kazee are better prospects than Marshon Lattimore among other gems in this glorious thread: http://216.92.118.141/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=587822

[VanS]

36 minutes ago, Rich7sena said:

You also said Dobbs and Kaaya are the top 2 QBs, James Connor the 2nd best RB, and Cameron Sutton, Teez Tabor, and Damontae Kazee are better prospects than Marshon Lattimore among other gems in this glorious thread: http://216.92.118.141/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=587822

And I stick by all of them.  Except for the underrating for Lattimore.  I was concerned about his hamstrings.  Looking back I should have been much higher on him.

But if I ask me today, I'm still taking Dobbs as my #1 QB over every other QB prospect in that class.  And I'm still taking James Conner as my #2 RB ahead of everybody but Alvin Kamara.  And I still think Cameron Sutton will be a perennial pro-bowl CB in the NFL (much like Eric Allen). 

We're only 1 season into these careers buddy.  Holla at me in 2020 if my guys like Dobbs, Conner, and Sutton don't develop into stars.

[Rich7sena]

38 minutes ago, VanS said:

And I stick by all of them.  Except for the underrating for Lattimore.  I was concerned about his hamstrings.  Looking back I should have been much higher on him.

But if I ask me today, I'm still taking Dobbs as my #1 QB over every other QB prospect in that class.  And I'm still taking James Conner as my #2 RB ahead of everybody but Alvin Kamara.  And I still think Cameron Sutton will be a perennial pro-bowl CB in the NFL (much like Eric Allen). 

We're only 1 season into these careers buddy.  Holla at me in 2020 if my guys like Dobbs, Conner, and Sutton don't develop into stars.

...But your claiming authority on a player (who everyone liked already) on one year of production.

On balance, you were more wrong against the consensus than right, but act like you have a 100% hit rate. 

[Ozzy]

2 hours ago, VanS said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  I said last year Alvin Kamara was the best RB in the 2017 draft.  I was attacked heavily for it.  One year later, I'm seeing most people agreeing with me.

I like the talent in the 2018 RB class.  I see 5 elite talents: Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones II, Mark Walton, and John Kelly.  All 5 look like pro-bowl RBs.  With Saquon Barkley being the best RB I've ever seen.

RB is the easiest position to transition in the NFL.  So we should know pretty quickly is this is an all-time great class.

Yeah will see, sure the Kamara call looks great but he went to the most ideal team in the entire NFL for his skill set.  Could not have went to a better place, doubt he would have been as successful on the Browns for example.  Did have a great year but so did many other backs, and not sure one would build a franchise around Kamara like you would with say Gurley, Elliott or soon to be Barkley.  

 

Ronald Jones I like his quickness and speed but is lacking in a lot of other areas.   Penny is interesting as a mid round pick, might be higher with his good Senior bowl play but will see.  Walton and Kelly are both coming off major injuries, love Kelly's toughness for sure and Walton really could make people miss and make big plays but will see how they are after their injuries, either one might not be the same kind of player.  

Give me Guice and his toughness over Kelly, Jones or Walton all day.  Penny is the one mid round pick who could be a potential elite back in the NFL along with Guice and Barkley I feel.   Obviously I like Guice a lot more than you but kid can run and runs hard. 

 

Jaylen Samuels is very underrated and as a receiving back is arguably the best.  Could potentially play slot WR in the NFL as well, love his skill set and is a great potential HB weapon as well.  Also Barkley is a damn good receiver, not to mention Michel and Wadley

[Ozzy]

2 hours ago, VanS said:

And I stick by all of them.  Except for the underrating for Lattimore.  I was concerned about his hamstrings.  Looking back I should have been much higher on him.

But if I ask me today, I'm still taking Dobbs as my #1 QB over every other QB prospect in that class.  And I'm still taking James Conner as my #2 RB ahead of everybody but Alvin Kamara.  And I still think Cameron Sutton will be a perennial pro-bowl CB in the NFL (much like Eric Allen). 

We're only 1 season into these careers buddy.  Holla at me in 2020 if my guys like Dobbs, Conner, and Sutton don't develop into stars.

Congrats to Kamara for the Offensive ROTY, then again here is a list of some past winners since 2000.  So like you said should wait a little bit...

 

Anthony Thomas 2001

Cadillac Williams 2005

Vince Young 2006

Percy Harvin 2009

Sam Bradford 2010

Robert Griffin III 2012

Eddie Lacey 2013

 

 

Lattimore won the Defensive ROTY, and potentially defense is a little less about situation and what is around you based on this.  Because arguably all the Defensive ROTY picks since 2000 were very good solid pros if not great pros.  Only guys who did not turn out long term were mostly due to injuries.  Cannot say that on the offensive side of the ball.

 

 

 

 

 

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

...But your claiming authority on a player (who everyone liked already) on one year of production.

On balance, you were more wrong against the consensus than right, but act like you have a 100% hit rate. 

Uhhhh.  Sure people liked him behind Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon.  But nobody had him #1 at his position but me.  And I was attacked for that.  Which I didn't mind.  And RB is the easiest position to transition into the NFL.  So the fact my #1 rated RB became a superstar faster than my #1 rated QB should be no surprise. 

And if you wanna go on the record saying Alvin is gonna not be great moving forward then so be it.  I know I said before the draft he would have a 1,000 yard rushing and 1,000 yard receiving season in the same year.  And nothing I saw this season is gonna make me back off that.

But by all means go ahead and call him a one year fluke.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Yeah will see, sure the Kamara call looks great but he went to the most ideal team in the entire NFL for his skill set.  Could not have went to a better place, doubt he would have been as successful on the Browns for example.  Did have a great year but so did many other backs, and not sure one would build a franchise around Kamara like you would with say Gurley, Elliott or soon to be Barkley. 

We could say that about anyone.  Would Tom Brady be a 5-time Super Bowl Champion if he didn't play for Bill Belichek?

All I know is Alvin Kamara is extremely talented and performed up to that talent level.  Sure he went to the perfect team for his skill set.  And it did allow him to become a SUPERSTAR faster than even I anticipated.  But I think regardless of where he went, he would eventually have been an elite player.  His talent level is just that good.

[Rich7sena]

25 minutes ago, VanS said:

Uhhhh.  Sure people liked him behind Fournette, McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon.  But nobody had him #1 at his position but me.  And I was attacked for that.  Which I didn't mind.  And RB is the easiest position to transition into the NFL.  So the fact my #1 rated RB became a superstar faster than my #1 rated QB should be no surprise. 

And if you wanna go on the record saying Alvin is gonna not be great moving forward then so be it.  I know I said before the draft he would have a 1,000 yard rushing and 1,000 yard receiving season in the same year.  And nothing I saw this season is gonna make me back off that.

But by all means go ahead and call him a one year fluke.

As expected you missed the entire point of my post. You claim you’re right about seemingly every evaluation you make because you had Kamara rated as your #1 RB, yet at the same time claim we should give all your other (bad) evaluations until 2020. Your #1 QB was a 3rd stringer his first year and your #2 QB didn’t even make the team he was drafted to, but you’ll always have Kamara as your RB1 (it’s your summer if ‘99). No one cares you had Kamara as RB1 except you. We all have hits; we all have a Kamara (less of us have a Dobbs).

[VanS]

2 hours ago, Rich7sena said:

As expected you missed the entire point of my post. You claim you’re right about seemingly every evaluation you make because you had Kamara rated as your #1 RB, yet at the same time claim we should give all your other (bad) evaluations until 2020. Your #1 QB was a 3rd stringer his first year and your #2 QB didn’t even make the team he was drafted to, but you’ll always have Kamara as your RB1 (it’s your summer if ‘99). No one cares you had Kamara as RB1 except you. We all have hits; we all have a Kamara (less of us have a Dobbs).

Tom Brady was 3rd string as a rookie and Kurt Warner was cut a million times and bagging groceries before he became a star in the NFL.  QB is an inherently different position than RB.  Typically the best QBs take time before they become elite.  Just look at the 2 best in the business right now (Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers).  Neither were considered hot shots as a rookies.  I doubt anyone was saying after their rookies years that they would arguably be the two best QBs in NFL history. 

You just caught feelings that I brought up my call on Alvin so you went at me with what you supposed were "misses".  In YOUR opinion Dobbs and Kaaya are misses because you didn't think much of them before the process and they haven't done anything so far in the league.  You can get on me for missing on Marshon Lattimore.  I never claimed to be right about everything.  I just said I was the only one who was 100% right about Alvin Kamara.  And that's the truth.  Cause while most people liked him as a satellite back who could be good value in the 2nd-3rd round, I was the guy beating the drum on him being the next Marshall Faulk.  There's a huge difference between liking someone to be a good 2nd round pick or late 1st rounder versus comparing him to a Hall of Famer.

For the record, I'm still 100% confident that Josh Dobbs will be the best QB from this class and Brad Kaaya will be in the top 3.  The guy who has moved up to my #2 is Patrick Mahomes.  He's a little better than I thought.  I still feel the same about Deshaun Watson.  Immense talent but serious durability concerns.  I fear he won't have a long career.

 

 

[ronjon1990]

15 hours ago, VanS said:

Tom Brady was 3rd string as a rookie and Kurt Warner was cut a million times and bagging groceries before he became a star in the NFL.  QB is an inherently different position than RB.  Typically the best QBs take time before they become elite.  Just look at the 2 best in the business right now (Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers).  Neither were considered hot shots as a rookies.  I doubt anyone was saying after their rookies years that they would arguably be the two best QBs in NFL history. 

In YOUR opinion Dobbs and Kaaya are misses because you didn't think much of them before the process and they haven't done anything so far in the league.  

 

 

Tom Brady is literally lightning caught by the human hand though. Using him as an example is pointless. The odds there are impossible to quantify. 

Aaron Rodgers was viewed by many as the #1 QB in his class. I loved him at Cal and saw star written all over him. First few seasons almost made me eat crow. 

Kurt Warner was really good. And I fully support his HOF induction. But save for a couple of seasons, I rarely had him as a top 5. Teams missed hard on him, but in hindsight, every indicator of a franchise type QB for that era was there. But lets not forget he was dead in the water for several seasons once Bulger took over and he got stuck behind Eli. And those moves were done for some reason. The likelihood of his success in Arizona is about as likely as Brady not being taken #1 overall in a redraft.

Dobbs doesn't have Brady's talent. At all. Even young Tom was talented and just overlooked. Dobbs hasn't shown any untapped talent to justify any comparison here. Objectively, Dobbs has actually looked bad more often than not.

Kaaya had all sorts of detractors. I was not one of them. But he hasn't shown any progress in years now. He was tantalizing as an underclassmen, bur never progressed. Not an issue Brady, Rodgers, or Warner had.

Neither Dobbs nor Kayya were viewed widely as first rounders, much less possible #1 picks. Any 1st round hype was similar to when Matt Barkley was considered a 1st round lock. Premature, at best. 

Warner also benefitedfrom being a part of some all time worthy offenses. Bruce, Fitz, Boldin, Holt....rare are the WR duos like that. But neither Dobbs nor Kayya have the refinement that Warner had. The small school label didnt help. Nor did being behind pretty decent QBs early on. He was a missed evaluation. Dobbs and Kayya recieved ample amounts of evaluation and consensus was that neither is very good. 

There is a difference between whiffing on evaluations while missing on a guy and not taking a guy because their evaluations were sub par. Kayya and Dobbs fit the latter more than the former. 

Comparing any rookie to 3 HOF Qbs is... hype material at best. Whether its talent wise, style, or situation. Kind of like the Kamarra = Faulk comps people were tossing around. Laughable. Kamarra could dud out like Richardson or Lacey next season. Or be exposed as a system RB as soon as Brees isn't commanding the attention of defenses. And to call him the next coming of Marshall Faulk, who's reputation was built over a career...mind boggling. Drives me nuts.

[VanS]

10 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Tom Brady is literally lightning caught by the human hand though. Using him as an example is pointless. The odds there are impossible to quantify. 

Aaron Rodgers was viewed by many as the #1 QB in his class. I loved him at Cal and saw star written all over him. First few seasons almost made me eat crow. 

Kurt Warner was really good. And I fully support his HOF induction. But save for a couple of seasons, I rarely had him as a top 5. Teams missed hard on him, but in hindsight, every indicator of a franchise type QB for that era was there. But lets not forget he was dead in the water for several seasons once Bulger took over and he got stuck behind Eli. And those moves were done for some reason. The likelihood of his success in Arizona is about as likely as Brady not being taken #1 overall in a redraft.

Dobbs doesn't have Brady's talent. At all. Even young Tom was talented and just overlooked. Dobbs hasn't shown any untapped talent to justify any comparison here. Objectively, Dobbs has actually looked bad more often than not.

Kaaya had all sorts of detractors. I was not one of them. But he hasn't shown any progress in years now. He was tantalizing as an underclassmen, bur never progressed. Not an issue Brady, Rodgers, or Warner had.

Neither Dobbs nor Kayya were viewed widely as first rounders, much less possible #1 picks. Any 1st round hype was similar to when Matt Barkley was considered a 1st round lock. Premature, at best. 

Warner also benefitedfrom being a part of some all time worthy offenses. Bruce, Fitz, Boldin, Holt....rare are the WR duos like that. But neither Dobbs nor Kayya have the refinement that Warner had. The small school label didnt help. Nor did being behind pretty decent QBs early on. He was a missed evaluation. Dobbs and Kayya recieved ample amounts of evaluation and consensus was that neither is very good. 

There is a difference between whiffing on evaluations while missing on a guy and not taking a guy because their evaluations were sub par. Kayya and Dobbs fit the latter more than the former. 

Comparing any rookie to 3 HOF Qbs is... hype material at best. Whether its talent wise, style, or situation. Kind of like the Kamarra = Faulk comps people were tossing around. Laughable. Kamarra could dud out like Richardson or Lacey next season. Or be exposed as a system RB as soon as Brees isn't commanding the attention of defenses. And to call him the next coming of Marshall Faulk, who's reputation was built over a career...mind boggling. Drives me nuts.

You just wrote a whole bunch of backward looking drivel.  Nobody said anything like you are saying right now about Brady and Warner before they became stars.  Its easy to say what you are saying right now with the benefit of hindsight. 

I'm simply projecting forward rather than looking back.  If I'm wrong, I will admit it in due time.  Like I said, by 2020 we'll know which QB is good and which ain't in this draft class.  I just don't think one season into a career is enough to say one way or another what a QB will become.  I gave you examples of present day great NFL QBs who did nothing as rookies or in Warner's case nothing until he was 28 and yet became some of the best to ever play.  I'm not saying Dobbs and Kaaya will be those players exactly.  Only saying you can't take anything from their rookie years as evidence of future success or failure.  Especially at QB.

We'll see eventually if I am right.  I'm just not backing of my projections simply because you disagree with them after only one season of play.