Your Draft Hot Takes

[BleedTheClock]

On 2/4/2018 at 2:23 AM, VanS said:

 

For the record, I'm still 100% confident that Josh Dobbs will be the best QB from this class and Brad Kaaya will be in the top 3

[ronjon1990]

6 hours ago, VanS said:

You just wrote a whole bunch of backward looking drivel.  Nobody said anything like you are saying right now about Brady and Warner before they became stars.  Its easy to say what you are saying right now with the benefit of hindsight. 

I'm simply projecting forward rather than looking back.  If I'm wrong, I will admit it in due time.  Like I said, by 2020 we'll know which QB is good and which ain't in this draft class.  I just don't think one season into a career is enough to say one way or another what a QB will become.  I gave you examples of present day great NFL QBs who did nothing as rookies or in Warner's case nothing until he was 28 and yet became some of the best to ever play.  I'm not saying Dobbs and Kaaya will be those players exactly.  Only saying you can't take anything from their rookie years as evidence of future success or failure.  Especially at QB.

We'll see eventually if I am right.  I'm just not backing of my projections simply because you disagree with them after only one season of play. 

Because I took examples you gave and broke down why they are poor examples? If your reasoning for Dobbs and Kaaya is "Brady and Warner were overlooked, drafted late, etc. too" then, no my friend, it isn't drivel. It's perfectly relevant. Nobody said you are making a ***-for-tat comparison. But if you are using situational similarities as part of your reasoning, which you clearly are, then it makes perfect sense to discuss the unlikelihood of those situations.

While I understand your point about rookie seasons not being great indicators (look at Jared Goff or, in alternative, RG3). However, you gave examples of:

1) A QB from Michigan with 2 lackluster years of tape. But he was an unknown otherwise. Neither Dobbs nor Kaaya were unknowns without a good deal of playing time. Kaaya never progressed past his sophomore year. In other words, it's pretty clear he reached his ceiling. Dobbs got a little better, but had much much further to go. And he has a ton of mechanical issues. The evidence there shows that Dobbs and Kaaya are unlikely to succeed. And that isn't based solely on their rookie years. 

2) A QB from Cal rated as a top prospect. He was stuck behind a legend his first few years in the league. But really, it would have been more surprising if he had flopped than that he succeeded. Neither Dobbs nor Kaaya have that kind of pedigree. Neither were considered top prospects, much less first rounders. Thus, again based on that evidence, they are unlikely to succeed. And that isn't based solely on their rookie years.

3) A small school QB that went overlooked in the draft and wound up having to compete with Favre, Brunell, and Detmer. No way he was making Green Bay's roster in 94, though not an indictment on him really. By 95 he was playing in the AFL, and playing well (much like Jeff Garcia and the CFL). The NFL had missed on him, but it had little to due with his talent. By 97, he was back in the NFL. Yet, as big of a fan of Warner's I am, he assuredly benefited from playing in a legendary offense. Further, he spent his later years tossing to a pair of probably Hall of Famers. The list of guys Warner had to beat out as a UDFA and later include Favre, Brunell, Green- all respectable or better starters. Detmer and Banks had pedigrees via the draft. Absent them failing big time, a UDFA wasn't going to beat them out right out of the gate. Dobbs is stuck behind Landry Jones, who nobody is pimping as a likely starter. And when Dobbs has played, he hasn't shown ANYTHING to indicate a future stud. Kaaya has a bit more in common with a situation like Warner. He competed with an unknown in Rudock. But he also couldn't beat out Garrett Gilbert, Derek Anderson, or Scott Tolzien. None of them are about to set the world on fire. Kaaya dropped from the 1st to the 6th round. BECAUSE HE JUST ISN'T GOOD, not because he was overlooked. Thus, based on "simply being overlooked", neither Dobbs nor Kaaya have shown indicators of success. 

So, Dobbs and Kaaya were not unknowns (they were knowns and it wasn't pretty), they didn't go into the draft with any kind of 1 round hype, and they haven't had to compete with a list of future starters or guys with draft pedigrees. So using the situations of Brady, Rodgers, Warner, anyone else really to back up your assertions.... it doesn't match up. Based on the indicators you yourself chose, there is no reason to have any faith in Dobbs or Kaaya. If you wanted to say it was just a "gut feeling", more power to you. I have gut feelings about certain guys too. But you have to leave it at that and not try and pretend it is any kind of deductive reasoning. I have the sneaky suspicion that Sam Darnold is going to flop big time. I can't put my finger on why. Just a feeling. On the other hand, you keep pimping up Kaaya or Dobbs like you "see" something others don't, ready to boast if they overcome the odds. But you haven't given an example of what you "see" in them. Mechanics? Raw talent? Poise? Them playing well? You chose to go the route of "look at these RARE situations that bear no resemblance to the situations of Dobbs or Kaaya as proof that they will succeed". And yet they're both more akin to guys like Matt Barkley and Chuckie Keeton in terms of situations, what scouts and GMs and coaches see in them, what they have shown. 

If you had left it at "don't judge a QB by rookie year", you would have a valid point. But you took it further and started reaching for comparable situations. It's already a long shot that they're even on rosters in 2 years based on draft position. You start bringing up other factors, it becomes even more unlikely. You're essentially shooting craps blind and expecting a pat on the back at this point. No rationale, no reason. That's fine, but your reasoning right now only indicates "pure dumb luck" if they succeed. At which point, no point bragging. 

 

 

[BleedTheClock]

7 hours ago, VanS said:

If I'm wrong, I will admit it in due time.

Doubt it. You seem like the kind of person that can't admit fault. I'm not holding my breath that we'll see humility out of you.

[VanS]

4 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Because I took examples you gave and broke down why they are poor examples? If your reasoning for Dobbs and Kaaya is "Brady and Warner were overlooked, drafted late, etc. too" then, no my friend, it isn't drivel. It's perfectly relevant. Nobody said you are making a ***-for-tat comparison. But if you are using situational similarities as part of your reasoning, which you clearly are, then it makes perfect sense to discuss the unlikelihood of those situations.

While I understand your point about rookie seasons not being great indicators (look at Jared Goff or, in alternative, RG3). However, you gave examples of:

1) A QB from Michigan with 2 lackluster years of tape. But he was an unknown otherwise. Neither Dobbs nor Kaaya were unknowns without a good deal of playing time. Kaaya never progressed past his sophomore year. In other words, it's pretty clear he reached his ceiling. Dobbs got a little better, but had much much further to go. And he has a ton of mechanical issues. The evidence there shows that Dobbs and Kaaya are unlikely to succeed. And that isn't based solely on their rookie years. 

2) A QB from Cal rated as a top prospect. He was stuck behind a legend his first few years in the league. But really, it would have been more surprising if he had flopped than that he succeeded. Neither Dobbs nor Kaaya have that kind of pedigree. Neither were considered top prospects, much less first rounders. Thus, again based on that evidence, they are unlikely to succeed. And that isn't based solely on their rookie years.

3) A small school QB that went overlooked in the draft and wound up having to compete with Favre, Brunell, and Detmer. No way he was making Green Bay's roster in 94, though not an indictment on him really. By 95 he was playing in the AFL, and playing well (much like Jeff Garcia and the CFL). The NFL had missed on him, but it had little to due with his talent. By 97, he was back in the NFL. Yet, as big of a fan of Warner's I am, he assuredly benefited from playing in a legendary offense. Further, he spent his later years tossing to a pair of probably Hall of Famers. The list of guys Warner had to beat out as a UDFA and later include Favre, Brunell, Green- all respectable or better starters. Detmer and Banks had pedigrees via the draft. Absent them failing big time, a UDFA wasn't going to beat them out right out of the gate. Dobbs is stuck behind Landry Jones, who nobody is pimping as a likely starter. And when Dobbs has played, he hasn't shown ANYTHING to indicate a future stud. Kaaya has a bit more in common with a situation like Warner. He competed with an unknown in Rudock. But he also couldn't beat out Garrett Gilbert, Derek Anderson, or Scott Tolzien. None of them are about to set the world on fire. Kaaya dropped from the 1st to the 6th round. BECAUSE HE JUST ISN'T GOOD, not because he was overlooked. Thus, based on "simply being overlooked", neither Dobbs nor Kaaya have shown indicators of success. 

So, Dobbs and Kaaya were not unknowns (they were knowns and it wasn't pretty), they didn't go into the draft with any kind of 1 round hype, and they haven't had to compete with a list of future starters or guys with draft pedigrees. So using the situations of Brady, Rodgers, Warner, anyone else really to back up your assertions.... it doesn't match up. Based on the indicators you yourself chose, there is no reason to have any faith in Dobbs or Kaaya. If you wanted to say it was just a "gut feeling", more power to you. I have gut feelings about certain guys too. But you have to leave it at that and not try and pretend it is any kind of deductive reasoning. I have the sneaky suspicion that Sam Darnold is going to flop big time. I can't put my finger on why. Just a feeling. On the other hand, you keep pimping up Kaaya or Dobbs like you "see" something others don't, ready to boast if they overcome the odds. But you haven't given an example of what you "see" in them. Mechanics? Raw talent? Poise? Them playing well? You chose to go the route of "look at these RARE situations that bear no resemblance to the situations of Dobbs or Kaaya as proof that they will succeed". And yet they're both more akin to guys like Matt Barkley and Chuckie Keeton in terms of situations, what scouts and GMs and coaches see in them, what they have shown. 

If you had left it at "don't judge a QB by rookie year", you would have a valid point. But you took it further and started reaching for comparable situations. It's already a long shot that they're even on rosters in 2 years based on draft position. You start bringing up other factors, it becomes even more unlikely. You're essentially shooting craps blind and expecting a pat on the back at this point. No rationale, no reason. That's fine, but your reasoning right now only indicates "pure dumb luck" if they succeed. At which point, no point bragging.

Hey bro.  The 2017 NFL Draft was 10 months ago.  I'm not here to re-litigate my opinions on prospects.  Once again, this is why I said your post was nothing but backward looking drivel.  I made my views very clear at the time.  I don't know if you were here 10 months ago but many others posted the same arguments you just did.  And I detailed my views very clearly. 

This argument today isn't about Dobbs or Kaaya as prospects or players.  Which for some reason you want to make it about.  This is about whether a rookie season is sufficient for judging an NFL QB.  As you said yourself it isn't.  So there, we're done.

But then again go right ahead and write another angry essay.

[CWood21]

On 2/3/2018 at 3:06 PM, VanS said:

We'll just have to wait and see.  I said last year Alvin Kamara was the best RB in the 2017 draft.  I was attacked heavily for it.  One year later, I'm seeing most people agreeing with me.

You throw enough darts at the board, eventually one will hit.  So far, most of your predictions have been borderline awful.  Josh Dobbs has even come close to being the best QB.  Brad Kaaya was your #2 ranked QB and he's not playing.  We could keep going.

[VanS]

9 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

You throw enough darts at the board, eventually one will hit.  So far, most of your predictions have been borderline awful.  Josh Dobbs has even come close to being the best QB.  Brad Kaaya was your #2 ranked QB and he's not playing.  We could keep going.

Once again QB and RB are very different positions.  If the reverse were true, I would have respected this criticism more. 

For example, if Dobbs had the season Watson had this year and Alvin Kamara was the one that was 3rd string all season or getting cut from the roster, I would have respected the attack on my prediction that Alvin Kamara would be the best RB in the 2017 Draft.  RB is the position where more is expected sooner.  And its tough to see a RB do nothing early on in his career then develop into a superstar later.  But we see this all the time with QBs.  Typically the best QBs don't have great rookie seasons.  And the QBs who are drafted low and eventually develop into stars rarely play as rookies and sometimes like Kaaya get cut by several teams.

I'm not here to re-litigate my opinions on the QBs of the 2017 Draft.  I stand by what I said before the draft and I'll just wait and see how it develops over the next couple of years.

[CWood21]

Just now, VanS said:

Once again QB and RB are very different positions.  If the reverse were true, I would have respected this criticism more. 

For example, if Dobbs had the season Watson had this year and Alvin Kamara was the one that was 3rd string all season or getting cut from the roster, I would have respected the attack on my prediction that Alvin Kamara would be the best RB in the 2017 Draft.  RB is the position where more is expected sooner.  And its tough to see a RB do nothing early on in his career then develop into a superstar later.  But we see this all the time with QBs.  Typically the best QBs don't have great rookie seasons.  And the QBs who are drafted low and eventually develop into stars rarely play as rookies and sometimes like Kaaya get cut by several teams.

I'm not here to re-litigate my opinions on the QBs of the 2017 Draft.  I stand by what I said before the draft and I'll just wait and see how it develops over the next couple of years.

Pick any of your other "hot takes", and the point still remains.  You throw enough darts at the board, one of them is bound to hit.

[ronjon1990]

13 hours ago, VanS said:

Hey bro.  The 2017 NFL Draft was 10 months ago.  I'm not here to re-litigate my opinions on prospects.  Once again, this is why I said your post was nothing but backward looking drivel.  I made my views very clear at the time.  I don't know if you were here 10 months ago but many others posted the same arguments you just did.  And I detailed my views very clearly. 

This argument today isn't about Dobbs or Kaaya as prospects or players.  Which for some reason you want to make it about.  This is about whether a rookie season is sufficient for judging an NFL QB.  As you said yourself it isn't.  So there, we're done.

But then again go right ahead and write another angry essay.

 Nope I was busy 10 months ago. Been here since 07 though.

I never made it about Dobbs or Kaaya. In fact, you were talking about them and your sterling record of hot takes before I joined in...or I wouldn't have been able to quote you on it. Sheer genius. Reading. Comprehension. Bro.

The defensive and antagonistic person accusing others of "angry" essays... original. Rex Ryan offense original. 

Here's a hot take: Don't take everything on a message board so personally and maybe you'll lower your obviously high blood pressure.

 

[ronjon1990]

13 hours ago, VanS said:

 And the QBs who are drafted low virtually never develop into backup level talent, especially when cut by several teams their rookie year after taking a draft dive like Kaaya.

FIFY ?

[Rich7sena]

To get this thread back on the rails a bit: This draft's top corner will be taken in rounds 3-5. There are just so many ideally sized guys with speed and length who project in the middle rounds: Christian Campbell, J.C. Jackson, Isaac Yiadom, Kamrin Moore, Jamarcus King, Brandon Facyson, Anthony Averett, and there are probably more.

[VanS]

15 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Pick any of your other "hot takes", and the point still remains.  You throw enough darts at the board, one of them is bound to hit.

Once again.  Just as I said at this time last year when people were calling me crazy for saying Alvin Kamara was the #1 RB in a loaded RB draft and the next Marshall Faulk.....I'll just let things develop and then in a few years we can pick this argument back up.

And FYI, Kamara's success has only increased my confidence in the Dobbs pick.  Because unlike 99.9% of ya'll, I actually watched every snap in both player's college careers as well almost every interview they gave (so I have a pretty good understanding of not only their games on the field but also their character and approach off the field).  Everything Kamara did is exactly as I expected.  The same skills I saw in college translated to the NFL.  The same happy-go-lucky yet incredibly smart and determined character I saw off the field in college translated to the NFL.

Now I'll just wait to see if Dobbs skills and intangibles translate to the NFL as well as Kamara's.

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

To get this thread back on the rails a bit: This draft's top corner will be taken in rounds 3-5. There are just so many ideally sized guys with speed and length who project in the middle rounds: Christian Campbell, J.C. Jackson, Isaac Yiadom, Kamrin Moore, Jamarcus King, Brandon Facyson, Anthony Averett, and there are probably more.

King is the only guy from that group I've watched play.  His best case scenario is Al Harris (Packers) IMO.  I think he can be a solid #2 CB who maybe at some point can be a #1.  This is a weak CB draft IMO so its possible he ends being the top guy thought I wouldn't bet on it.

My favorite corner is Mike Hughes (UCF).  I don't see superstar CB in his future.  But a solid Darius Slay type who can have a few big seasons.

[48 1/2ers]

Is it a hot take if I say I dont think Allen will be picked in the first 15 picks?

[Rich7sena]

2 minutes ago, VanS said:

King is the only guy from that group I've watched play.  His best case scenario is Al Harris (Packers) IMO.  I think he can be a solid #2 CB who maybe at some point can be a #1.  This is a weak CB draft IMO so its possible he ends being the top guy thought I wouldn't bet on it.

My favorite corner is Mike Hughes (UCF).  I don't see superstar CB in his future.  But a solid Darius Slay type who can have a few big seasons.

Hair comp?

[VanS]

1 hour ago, Rich7sena said:

Hair comp?

LOL.  It helps.  But I go more on height/body type and the way players move.  Jamarcus King has a very similar height/body type to Al Harris.  Both are tall long corners with similar movement skills.