Mock Offseason: 2nd Draft

[rdelaney89]

I think with McCown down for the count we end up with 5-11 record. Using ESPNs playoff predictor I have the draft playing out like this:

1 - Browns (1-15)

2 - Giants (3-13)

3 - Colts/Colts (4-12)

4 - Browns via Huston (4-12)

5 - 49ers (4-12)

6 - Bears (4-12)

7 - Bucs (4-12)

8 - Broncos (5-11)

9 - Jets (5-11)

10 - Bengals (6-10)

11 - Cardinals (6-10)

12 - Raiders (6-10)

13 - Titans (8-8 )

14 - Cowboys (8-8 )

15 - Bills (8-8 )

16 - Redskins (8-8 )

**Teams in Bold could be looking for a QB**

**Teams in Red could look to trade down**

 

I determined the order based on the strength of schedule on Tankathon.com as of December 14th. I'm not sure how much that order will change in the next 3 weeks based on teams winning or losing so for arguments sake I'll say it stays the same. I think Sam Darnold declares (likely won't increase his stock from #1 or #2 overall and won't risk a Leinart type drop) and Josh Rosen declares (New coaching staff means he's likely moving on to the NFL). The more QB's that come out the better for us, the nice thing too is there are going to be teams that are looking to move down. 

Cuts

Mohammed Wilkerson (June 1st designation), Buster Skrine, Ben Ijalana, Devin Smith, Matt Forte

Remaining Cap Space: $95.5M

Resign

Morris Claiborne: 3 years $30M - Cap hit $10M

• This deal will protect us against injury but when healthy Claiborne will be paid fairly for his services. I don't think any other team will offer him more than a 1 or 2 year deal because he is still having some troubles with his health. This contract makes him the 13th highest paid CB, on par with Aqib Talib.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 4 years $32M - Cap hit $8M

• I believe we will franchise tag ASJ to start so he can't negotiate with any other team but will ultimately lock him up. This deal will pay him just under what Zach Ertz is making, seems like a fair deal and I think he'll appreciate staying with the team that gambled on him when he was down in a low spot in his career. All guaranteed money will come in the first 2 years so we can cut him in the event he screws up.

Demario Davis: 3 years $15M - Cap hit $5M

• First 2 years of this deal will be guaranteed. Demario has re-invented his career and has been a valued leader in the locker room. (I think that's partially why we made the move to get him back) He'll be 29 in January so I don't think we commit too long to him, I could see it being a 4 year deal that is really 3 years.

Chandler Catanzaro: 2 years $4M - Cap hit $2M

• You can substitute him for someone else if you'd like but I think he has earned the right to stay on with us. 

Kony Ealy: 3 Years $21M - Cap hit $7M

• I don't think he'll quite get what Hankins got (3 years $27M) He's done a good job and with the cap space we have I think keeping our own talent will be important. He should be able to fill in for Mo reasonably well. 

Quincy Enunwa: 1st Round Tender - Cap hit $4.2M

• Enunwa only has 3 accrued season due to us placing him on IR so he is going to be a RFA. Pryor got 1 year $6M from the Redskins after a good healthy season, Enunwa was injured so I think this deal is fair for both sides. I could see us putting a 2nd round tender on him potentially but I think a team late in round 2 could opt to roll the dice on him. 1st round tender should eliminate any possibility of another team signing him.

Remaining Cap Space: $59.4M

Free Agency

If Kirk Cousins hits FA then I think we have a really good shot to land him, for the sake of discussion I'll say he is Franchised one more year and he stays with the Redskins.

Ryan Jensen - Center - 5 years $50M - Cap hit $10M

• Jensen has been the anchor in the middle of the Ravens OL. PFF has him rated as the 8th best center in the league. We have the money, we make sure we get our guy to help fix our OL.

Malcolm Butler - CB - 5 years $65M - Cap hit $13M

• Butler will have his SB rings he now looks to cash in after the Patriots opted to pay Stephon Gilmore over him last year. We offer him the same contract so he can face Brady twice a year. Johnson could be an option but he'll likely get north of $15M a year. $40M in guarantees just like Gilmore paid out over the first 3 years of this contract.

Remaining Cap Space: $36.4M (Not sure how much cap can roll over to another year but we max out whatever that is)

 

Draft

1 - Browns (1-15) - QB - Sam Darnold 

2 - Giants (3-13) - QB - Josh Rosen - flip them if you want either way these two are going top 2.

3 - Colts (4-12) - EDGE - Bradley Chubb - Indy considers trading back after deciding to stick with Luck and Brisset but decide to stay put and arguably get the best player in the country

4 - Browns via Huston (4-12) - **TRADE** - Buffalo - QB - Josh Allen - The Bills move up to select their QB of the future. After an impressive combine Allen shoots up draft boards. Bills give up 2018 1st, 2018 1st (from Chiefs), and 2018 2nd.

5 - 49ers (4-12) - RB - Saquon Barkley - They give Jimmy G a new weapon

6 - Bears (4-12) - **TRADE** - Jets - QB - Baker Mayfield - The Jets know the Broncos are picking ahead of them and the Cardinals are trying to trade up so they make the jump up to get their guy. Mayfield fell to the 4th QB taken after having shaky measurables at the combine and questions about his game transitioning to the NFL. The Bears are more than happy to recoup some draft picks to slide back a few slots. Jets give up their 2018 1st and a 2019 1st. Cardinals make the same offer but the Jets picks will be higher.

7 - Bucs (4-12) - CB - Minkah Fitzpatrick - Brent Grimes is 34, they draft his replacement.

8 - Broncos (5-11) - LT - Mike McGlinchey - The Broncos are upset that a QB didn't fall to them. Elway doesn't strike me as the guy to trade up for a players like Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson. They take a LT to protect Lynch and give him one more year to see if he has what it takes.

9 - Jets (5-11) - **TRADE** - Bears - WR - Calvin Ridley - Great trade by the Bears, they acquire more picks and they still get the WR they had their eyes on.

10 - Bengals (6-10) - G - Quenton Nelson - The middle of their OL needs work, this is an easy pick

11 - Cardinals (6-10) - QB - Lamar Jackson - The Cardinals still get a QB, not as polished as the first 4 taken but the ceiling is sky high for Jackson. Jackson can sit behind Palmer for a year and work on his mechanics before taking over next year.

 

Round 2

2a) - EDGE - Duke Ejiofor - Jets have a QB, CB, and now an Edge Rusher. 

2b) - RB - Nick Chubb - After missing out on Kamara last year the Jets look add more talent to the offensive side of the ball.

Round 3

3) - EDGE - Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - Just like last year the Jets double dip in an area of need. You can never have enough pass rushers, Jets haven't had any since John Abraham.

Round 4

4) - OT - Chukwuma Okorafor - Macc likes taking OL in the middle of the draft. He nabs Okorafor as a back up to Beachum and potentially starter in the future.

BPA from here on out

 

Potential Major Needs for 2019 offseason - LT, LG, WR

• Beachum will be going into the last year of his deal in 2019 and depending on if he can stay healthy, may be a cap casualty. Ideally he can hang around for 2 more seasons to finish out his contract so we can address LT when we have a 1st round pick in 2020.
• Carpenter will still only be 29 so unless his play sharply declines it would be nice to resign him and draft someone to groom.
• Enunwa will be a FA after signing his one year deal with us, if he plays well then we lock him up. Kearse will be a FA so if Enunwa plays poorly we could opt to resign him, he'll be 28 next year. Robby Anderson will be a RFA after next season so I expect us to use a 1st round tender on him depending on how much he wants to be compensated.
• Estimated Cap Space before heading into 2019 FA: $90M

 

I'm not exactly sure if overthecap calculates roll over figures into the following seasons projections or not. If they don't then we'd have an additional $18M for 2018 and an additional $36M for 2019.

[doumeyer]

5 minutes ago, rdelaney89 said:

I think with McCown down for the count we end up with 5-11 record. Using ESPNs playoff predictor I have the draft playing out like this:

1 - Browns (1-15)

2 - Giants (3-13)

3 - Colts/Colts (4-12)

4 - Browns via Huston (4-12)

5 - 49ers (4-12)

6 - Bears (4-12)

7 - Bucs (4-12)

8 - Broncos (5-11)

9 - Jets (5-11)

10 - Bengals (6-10)

11 - Cardinals (6-10)

12 - Raiders (6-10)

13 - Titans (8-8 )

14 - Cowboys (8-8 )

15 - Bills (8-8 )

16 - Redskins (8-8 )

**Teams in Bold could be looking for a QB**

**Teams in Red could look to trade down**

 

I determined the order based on the strength of schedule on Tankathon.com as of December 14th. I'm not sure how much that order will change in the next 3 weeks based on teams winning or losing so for arguments sake I'll say it stays the same. I think Sam Darnold declares (likely won't increase his stock from #1 or #2 overall and won't risk a Leinart type drop) and Josh Rosen declares (New coaching staff means he's likely moving on to the NFL). The more QB's that come out the better for us, the nice thing too is there are going to be teams that are looking to move down. 

Cuts

Mohammed Wilkerson (June 1st designation), Buster Skrine, Ben Ijalana, Devin Smith, Matt Forte

Remaining Cap Space: $95.5M

Resign

Morris Claiborne: 3 years $30M - Cap hit $10M

• This deal will protect us against injury but when healthy Claiborne will be paid fairly for his services. I don't think any other team will offer him more than a 1 or 2 year deal because he is still having some troubles with his health. This contract makes him the 13th highest paid CB, on par with Aqib Talib.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins: 4 years $32M - Cap hit $8M

• I believe we will franchise tag ASJ to start so he can't negotiate with any other team but will ultimately lock him up. This deal will pay him just under what Zach Ertz is making, seems like a fair deal and I think he'll appreciate staying with the team that gambled on him when he was down in a low spot in his career. All guaranteed money will come in the first 2 years so we can cut him in the event he screws up.

Demario Davis: 3 years $15M - Cap hit $5M

• First 2 years of this deal will be guaranteed. Demario has re-invented his career and has been a valued leader in the locker room. (I think that's partially why we made the move to get him back) He'll be 29 in January so I don't think we commit too long to him, I could see it being a 4 year deal that is really 3 years.

Chandler Catanzaro: 2 years $4M - Cap hit $2M

• You can substitute him for someone else if you'd like but I think he has earned the right to stay on with us. 

Kony Ealy: 3 Years $21M - Cap hit $7M

• I don't think he'll quite get what Hankins got (3 years $27M) He's done a good job and with the cap space we have I think keeping our own talent will be important. He should be able to fill in for Mo reasonably well. 

Quincy Enunwa: 1st Round Tender - Cap hit $4.2M

• Enunwa only has 3 accrued season due to us placing him on IR so he is going to be a RFA. Pryor got 1 year $6M from the Redskins after a good healthy season, Enunwa was injured so I think this deal is fair for both sides. I could see us putting a 2nd round tender on him potentially but I think a team late in round 2 could opt to roll the dice on him. 1st round tender should eliminate any possibility of another team signing him.

Remaining Cap Space: $59.4M

Free Agency

If Kirk Cousins hits FA then I think we have a really good shot to land him, for the sake of discussion I'll say he is Franchised one more year and he stays with the Redskins.

Ryan Jensen - Center - 5 years $50M - Cap hit $10M

• Jensen has been the anchor in the middle of the Ravens OL. PFF has him rated as the 8th best center in the league. We have the money, we make sure we get our guy to help fix our OL.

Malcolm Butler - CB - 5 years $65M - Cap hit $13M

• Butler will have his SB rings he now looks to cash in after the Patriots opted to pay Stephon Gilmore over him last year. We offer him the same contract so he can fact Brady twice a year. Johnson could be an option but he'll likely get north of $15M a year. $40M in guarantees just like Gilmore paid out over the first 3 years of this contract.

Remaining Cap Space: $36.4M (Not sure how much cap can roll over to another year but we max out whatever that is)

 

Draft

1 - Browns (1-15) - QB - Sam Darnold 

2 - Giants (3-13) - QB - Josh Rosen - flip them if you want either way these two are going top 2.

3 - Colts (4-12) - EDGE - Bradley Chubb - Indy considers trading back after deciding to stick with Luck and Brisset but decide to stay put and arguably get the best player in the country

4 - Browns via Huston (4-12) - **TRADE** - Buffalo - QB - Josh Allen - The Bills move up to select their QB of the future. After an impressive combine Allen shoots up draft boards. Bills give up 2018 1st, 2019 1st (from Chiefs), and 2018 2nd.

5 - 49ers (4-12) - RB - Saquon Barkley - They give Jimmy G a new weapon

6 - Bears (4-12) - **TRADE** - Jets - QB - Baker Mayfield - The Jets know the Broncos are picking ahead of them and the Cardinals are trying to trade up so they make the jump up to get their guy. Mayfield fell to the 4th QB taken after having shaky measurable at the combine and questions about his game transitioning to the NFL. The Bears are more than happy to recoup some draft picks to slide back a few slots. Jets give up their 2018 1st and a 2019 1st. Cardinals make the same offer but the Jets picks will be higher.

7 - Bucs (4-12) - CB - Minkah Fitzpatrick - Brent Grimes is 34, they draft his replacement.

8 - Broncos (5-11) - LT - Mike McGlinchey - The Broncos are upset that a QB didn't fall to them and Elway doesn't strike me as the guy to trade up for a players like Baker Mayfield or Lamar Jackson. They take a LT to protect Lynch and give him one more year to see if he has what it takes.

9 - Jets (5-11) - **TRADE** - Bears - WR - Calvin Ridley - Great trade by the Bears, they acquire more picks and they still get the WR they had their eyes on.

10 - Bengals (6-10) - G - Quenton Nelson - The middle of their OL needs work, this is an easy pick

11 - Cardinals (6-10) - QB - Lamar Jackson - The Cardinals still get a QB, not as polished as the first 4 taken but the ceiling is sky high for Jackson. Jackson can sit behind Palmer for a year and work on his mechanics before taking over next year.

 

Round 2

2a) - EDGE - Duke Ejiofor - Jets have a QB, CB, and now an Edge Rusher. 

2b) - RB - Nick Chubb - After missing out on Kamara last year the Jets look add more talent to the offensive side of the ball.

Round 3

3) - EDGE - Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - Just like last year the Jets double dip in an area of need. You can never have enough pass rushers, Jets haven't had any since John Abraham.

Round 4

4) - OT - Chukwuma Okorafor - Macc likes taking OL in the middle of the draft. He nabs Okorafor as a back up to Beachum and potentially starter in the future.

BPA from here on out

 

Potential Major Needs for 2019 offseason - LT, LG, WR

• Beachum will be going into the last year of his deal in 2019 and depending on if he can stay healthy may decide if he is a cap casualty. Ideally he can hang around for 2 more seasons to finish out his contract so we can address LT when we have a 1st round pick in 2020.
• Carpenter will still only be 29 so unless his play sharply declines it would be nice to resign him and draft someone to groom.
• Enunwa will be a FA after signing his one year deal with us, if he plays well then we lock him up. Kearse will be a FA so if Enunwa plays poorly we could opt to resign him, he'll be 28 next year. Robby Anderson will be a RFA after next season so I expect us to use a 1st round tender on him depending on how much he wants to be compensated.
• Estimated Cap Space before heading into 2019 FA: $90M

 

I'm not exactly sure if overthecap calculates roll over figures into the following seasons projections or not. If they don't then we'd have an additional $18M for 2018 and an additional $36M for 2019.

You know that Rosen going to the Giants is my worst nightmare. And I am not 100% sold on ASJ, he is outstanding in the red zone, but hasn't proved he can get open downfield, but he is a keeper. The key right now is we have to root for the Texans, Redskins, Tampa Bay, Bears, & Bengals to win Sunday, we still have a chance to move up in the draft. We must keep Rob Anderson he is the best deep threat we had since Wesley Walker. I also think Kearse will be a valuable fourth receiver. Your second round draft picks I don't know much about them so I have no comment on them.

[SDotNova]

Big fan of ejiofor. He just pops when you watch him on film. Looks athletic and can get after the passer.  He grades well in the run and rush on pff. Do you have him at 3-4 DE or OLB? Seems more of a fit at 3-4 DE or a strong side DE in the 4-3.

 

what did you give up to move up for Mayfield? 

I'm hoping Denver keeps winning. Also, I have hope that the Browns overthink things  and don't go QB with their first. 

[rdelaney89]

1 hour ago, SDotNova said:

Big fan of ejiofor. He just pops when you watch him on film. Looks athletic and can get after the passer.  He grades well in the run and rush on pff. Do you have him at 3-4 DE or OLB? Seems more of a fit at 3-4 DE or a strong side DE in the 4-3.

 

what did you give up to move up for Mayfield? 

I'm hoping Denver keeps winning. Also, I have hope that the Browns overthink things  and don't go QB with their first. 

Love am a big fan of him if he's there in the 2nd, I think he'd start with his hand in the dirt. He seems most effective that way but I think he could cover a little as well with his speed. He has so many pass rush moves and his spin reminds me of Freeny

so with the Mayfield trade we kind of get lucky. The Broncos want a QB but are not willing to trade up for one so we just have to leapfrog them. IMO our biggest threat is Buffalo and I think they can top anything we do in a trade. I want nothing to do with Josh Allen but the more I read and hear about him makes me believe there are going to be a lot of NFL teams that fall in love with him. I think he'll rise at the combine because of how big he is and Mayfield will have the height question pop up too much. Since Buffalo gets their guy before us and Denver isn't looking to trade up for a QB, I have us giving up this years first and next years first because they should both be better than the Cardinals. I think anything more and it may be too rich for them. After us there is no longer a team I see making the jump ahead of the Cardinals so they feel comfortable letting Jackson fall to them.

I see no way we'll be able to move up to number 1 short of a player saying they don't want to play for the Browns. In the event that happens I think they flip flop with the Giants and the take the opposite QB. I can't see both QBs saying they don't want to play there.

[Sapo28]

No way am I giving up our first round pick for the next 2 years to jump up 3 spots in the draft. That sort of ammunition gets you the first pick in the draft

[Bobby816]

Love it all minus Mayfield. I’ve voiced that I don’t like him, never mind trading up for him. But I do like a lot of your other picks. My only other thing I’d like to see addressed is why not sign a WR with a loaded WR FA class when we will have close to 40mikl still to spend? A guy like Allen Robinson or Moncrief wont cost too much and are a legit outside WR. We surely can upgrade from Kearse being he’s a FA after next year and is actually cuttable after this season if we wanted to.

[rdelaney89]

1 hour ago, Sapo28 said:

No way am I giving up our first round pick for the next 2 years to jump up 3 spots in the draft. That sort of ammunition gets you the first pick in the draft

You are giving up one additional pick, you'd be swapping firsts this year, it's not like you are giving up a 1st for a WR or RB. People over value 1st round picks when it comes to QB's, if you think your guy is not going to be there you pull the trigger. What would you see as fair compensation for a franchise QB?

36 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Love it all minus Mayfield. I’ve voiced that I don’t like him, never mind trading up for him. But I do like a lot of your other picks. My only other thing I’d like to see addressed is why not sign a WR with a loaded WR FA class when we will have close to 40mikl still to spend? A guy like Allen Robinson or Moncrief wont cost too much and are a legit outside WR. We surely can upgrade from Kearse being he’s a FA after next year and is actually cuttable after this season if we wanted to.

Yea I figured you wouldn't be on board with Mayfield, especially in a trade up.

I see Adams, Robinson, and Moncrief returning to their respective teams. (Packers have $32M in cap, I think Robinson won't uproot his family for a 1 year deal, and the Colts have $68M in cap) I actually penciled us in for Jarvis Landry but then retracted it once I realized he'd likely get 5 years $81M (Matching Hopkins deal) assuming he is going to the highest bidder. That's too rich for me to invest in arguably our best part of our team.

Now I'd be fine with signing him if he were asking for a what Ty Hilton got (5 years $63M) but I think there will be more suitors for him in FA. You'd also probably try to trade or cut one of the other WRs. (we'd have 4 fighting for touches before trying to add in either rookie from last year) Robby is probably the only one you could trade but he's so cheap the next 2 years would you over pay Landry to accomplish the same job Robby is already doing? I think if management doesn't like Robby then you will see this happen this offseason when Robby's value is at it's highest.

I think we add a FA WR in 2019 after we get a look at Enunwa and our rookies. OBJ, Brandon Cooks, Amari Cooper, & DeVante Parker are set to be FAs in 2019.

**If overthecap.com doesn't roll over cap into it's calculations and we have an additional $18M added then I'll be 100% on board with Landry.

[Sapo28]

1 minute ago, rdelaney89 said:

You are giving up one additional pick, you'd be swapping firsts this year, it's not like you are giving up a 1st for a WR or RB. People over value 1st round picks when it comes to QB's, if you think your guy is not going to be there you pull the trigger. What would you see as fair compensation for a franchise QB?

I miss -read tbh I thought we were swapping this year and giving up two additional first rounders. That's my bad. Even still, Mayfield in this scenario is the 4th QB off the board and it's a 3 pick swap with Lamar and Mayfield still on the board.  I could see us giving up a 2nd or 3rd and some late round picks to make that happen but Mac is too much of a build through the draft guy to give up a first round pick. 

[Dr.O]

Love it, would just switch Chubb with Wadley

[GangGreen420]

I like it all too except the one big thing - Mayfield. 

Unless he lights up Georgia and Alabama, he’s too risky of a pick for me.

[SDotNova]

That seems to be too much to trade up 3 spots. There has to be an example where someone trades up a few spots to land a QB in the Top 10. Trading up like that seems more reasonable than going all the way up to 1 though. But I cant see why our first and our second doesn't get that trade done. 

 

Edit: Tried looking for some examples but couldn't. 

[Rockice_8]

Things I like.  Went all in on a possible franchise QB (#1 priority).  Added a much needed pass rusher and addressed CB/RB/C which are all big needs.

What I don't like Chubb in round 3, I'm not a fan of his but I get why people like him.  Don't love overpaying mediocre CB's Mo and Butler.  Hope we don't have to use assets to get our QBOTF but I guess if DEN is ahead of us we may have to.  I like Jackson a ton and would be ok waiting on him at 9.

Overall solid job though.

[SDotNova]

5 hours ago, rdelaney89 said:

Love am a big fan of him if he's there in the 2nd, I think he'd start with his hand in the dirt. He seems most effective that way but I think he could cover a little as well with his speed. He has so many pass rush moves and his spin reminds me of Freeny

so with the Mayfield trade we kind of get lucky. The Broncos want a QB but are not willing to trade up for one so we just have to leapfrog them. IMO our biggest threat is Buffalo and I think they can top anything we do in a trade. I want nothing to do with Josh Allen but the more I read and hear about him makes me believe there are going to be a lot of NFL teams that fall in love with him. I think he'll rise at the combine because of how big he is and Mayfield will have the height question pop up too much. Since Buffalo gets their guy before us and Denver isn't looking to trade up for a QB, I have us giving up this years first and next years first because they should both be better than the Cardinals. I think anything more and it may be too rich for them. After us there is no longer a team I see making the jump ahead of the Cardinals so they feel comfortable letting Jackson fall to them.

I see no way we'll be able to move up to number 1 short of a player saying they don't want to play for the Browns. In the event that happens I think they flip flop with the Giants and the take the opposite QB. I can't see both QBs saying they don't want to play there.

Yup. Ejiofor has a crazy spin move. Dude can really get after the QB. He'll be someone to keep an eye on during the combines. 

[Crickett]

Aside from doubling up on edge rushers, which lets be honest here, the Jets haven't drafted an edge rusher in a decade, they're not going to all of a sudden draft two for a coach who has essentially never utilized them even going back to his Arizona days, this is the most Jets mock draft I've ever seen. 

[GangGreen420]

9 minutes ago, Crickett said:

Aside from doubling up on edge rushers, which lets be honest here, the Jets haven't drafted an edge rusher in a decade, they're not going to all of a sudden draft two for a coach who has essentially never utilized them even going back to his Arizona days, this is the most Jets mock draft I've ever seen. 

I sort of agree about getting the pass rusher. I think if they go defense early (god help us) it’s going to be a corner.