Sllim's Pre-Combine Mock Offseason

[Sllim Pickens]

I am likely to one of these post combine/pre FA and then one post FA to see how prospects have changed and free agency impacts the draft.  I won't do anything with coaches but I wouldn't be shocked if Big V ends up on our staff assisting the O line since our staff have loved him being around and his impact on guys like Sewell.  

Detroit Lions Cap Space per OTC: $50,343,386

Free Agency:
Free Agents Re-signed: 
Given we let CJGJ and Glasnow reach the free agency period without an extension moving their void years to dead cap space, I have a gut feeling we will not bring either of them back.  If we were interested in signing either close to what they wanted, we would have been able to likely save another couple of million by spreading that over their new contracts.  There is still a chance but leaning on moving on from them. 

Jonah Jackson - 1 year, $6M deal (prove it deal to stay healthy and cash in next offseason)
Jalen Reeves-Maybin - 2 year, $4M deal, $2M cap hit
Brock Wright - RFA - 2.8M cap hit
James Houston - ERFA - $1M cap hit
Scott Daly - $1M cap hit

Non-Internal Free Agents:
Kamren Curl, S - 3 year, $30M, $8M cap hit in 2024.  Kirby Joseph fell off and CJGJ is gone so we need more help on the back end.  Curl played well against the run and pass and will be a huge upgrade.  A trio of Curl, Iffy and Kerby should be a solid back end of our D.  
Coleman Shelton, OG/C - 2 year, $5M, $2M cap hit, Coming to replace Glasnow.  Still looking for someone younger but a good stop gap for now. 
Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB - 2 year, $14M, $6M cap hit- Replaces Mosely with a similar contract.  Still young and plays better in zone so likely would improve on last years numbers.  Graded better than Sutton and would be a huge upgrade over Vildor.  Not the elite #1 we all want but unless you sign Johnson, then we won't find that in FA.  
Leki Fotu, NT - 1 year $2M - A solid semi-young NT that can step in and be an upgrade to Jones.  Had a solid year showing he can rush the passer with 3 sacks which would have been third on our D line.  

Total Cap spent on Free Agents for 2024 - $32,800,000
Cap needed for draft - $9,100,197
Cap Remaining for extensions/Cut players etc - $7,443,189

Draft: I used a composite ranking to determine where guys should be available at the moment.  

Round 1, Pick 29 - Darius Robinson, EDGE Missouri - A big edge defender who can get after the QB and defend the run.  At 290 he is a replacement for Cominsky and Paschal moves to backup Hutch primarily.  On passing downs,, Robinson can slide inside and cause pressure from the interior which we sorely lack.  A  versatile DL that has the third highest pressure rate and the highest sack rate for edge defenders bigger than 250lbs.  Also a local kid from Canton so similar to Hutch, bringing him home to play pro ball. 

Round 2, Pick 61 - Kiran Amegadji, OT Yale - A great athlete that can get upfield in the ground game and has been lights out as a pass protector.  The level of competition issues are there like they were for Sorsdal but Amdegadji is a superior athlete.  Could potentially play RG where he started at Yale until we move on from Decker and then can slide outside to take over on the blindside.  

Round 3, Pick 73 - Brenden Rice, WR USC - Rice I believe will go a little higher than this after the combine and pro days.  A track star who is clocked over 23MPH.  Its been said this offseason that Rice in a combine prep had 1.42 ten yard splits, a 38" vertical, and repped 225 17 times at 6'3", 215 lbs.  Obviously the bloodline is elite but his play and athleticism have been too.  He averaged 17.6 ypc this year with 12 TDs while predominantly playing wide.  Will replace Reynolds as our WR2/3 depending on how Jamo improves.  Either way having Rice and Jamo wide with ARSB and LaPorta inside will be a deadly coombo.   

Round 3, Pick 92 - Khyree Jackson, CB Oregon - Khyree is a big CB at 6'5" but super athletic and stout against the run.  He is better at zone but also can play in man which as Karnage has pointed out, is necessary since we run man a third of the time.  Adding some talented youth to the CB room is important this offseason and Jackson will be part of that.  

Round 5, Pick 162 - Mason McCormick, OG South Dakota St. - Another small school OL but one that I think can be our LG of the future to replace Jonah Jackson after his one year deal.  He allowed 3 hurries and no QB hits or sacks in 376 pass block snaps last year and in his last three years he has allowed 16 hurries, 2 hits, and 2 sacks on 1,256 pass snaps.  Those are elite numbers at any level and if he shows out athletically, could see his stock rise above this.  

Round 6, Pick 206 - Dwight McGlothern, CB Arkansas - I don't think there is any chance he is here during the actual draft but per the composite rankings, he should be.  I wouldn't be mad if we draft him in the second or third round which is where I think he ends up going.  Elite in man and zone coverage and solid against the run.  One of the best zone corners in the country per PFF last year and has great size at 6'4" 188lbs.  Adding size and talent with Murphy Bunting, McGlothern, and Jackson to our CB room should give AG no excuses.  

Round 7, Pick 246 - Joshua Karty, K Stanford - I am sick of playing kicker roulette and would like to find one we can depend on for a few years or longer again. Take your pick between Reichard, Mevis, Karty, or Cam Little but find one of them that can be our guy.  I prefer Karty who is a career 20 for 21 from 20-29 with his lone miss being his sophomore year and a career 8 for 15 from 50+ but 7 of 10 his last two years.  Add in that he has a career long of 61 and he is the top kicker IMO.  Reichard would be second and then Mevis but please grab one of these guys.   

UDFA's:
Evan Anderson, DT FAU - He is another big body NT that should fit well next to McNeil.  He had a solid pass rush grade with an elite run defense grade from PFF and had 5 sacks from the interior.  Should be another young piece to throw into the mix and push Martin.  I think he ends up going in the 3-6th round but the composite has him as UDFA so will snag him here. 
Jalen Green, Edge James Maddison - I think Green ends up getting drafted but as of now he is an UDFA per the composite rankings.  His 15.5 sacks this year will intrigue someone no matter the level of comp.  JMU had a great year and he is part of the reason why but he would add competition and depth behind Houston. 
Decorian Patterson, CB UCF - Was amazing at MTSU prior to moving to UCF where he wasn't as explosive.  Led the country in INTs in 2022 and worth the gamble as an UDFA.  
Michael Jurgens, IOL Wake Forest - Additional depth and competition to the IOL. 
Carson Steele, RB UCLA - A cheaper version of Craig Reynolds.  We may re-sign reynolds but if not I wouldn't expect much to go to the position.  


Roster:
Blue = Drafted/UDFA
Green = Free Agent

QB: Jared Goff, Hendon Hooker
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Mohamed Ibrahim, Carson Steele
WR: Jameson Williams, Antione Green
WR: Brenden Rice
Slot: ARSB, Kalif Raymond
TE: Sam Laporta, Brock Wright, James Mitchell
LT: Taylore Decker, Kiran Amegadji
LG: Jonah Jackson, Kayote Awosike
OC: Frank Ragnow, Cameron Shelton
RG: Cameron Shelton/Mason McCormick
RT: Penei Sewell, Kiran Amegadji

RE: Aidan Hutchinson, Josh Paschal
NT: Leki Fotu, Broderic Martin, Evan Anderson
DT: Alim McNeil, Levi Onwuzurike,
LE: Darius Robinson, Josh Paschal, John Cominsky
EDGE: James Houston, Jalen Green
LB: Jack Campbell, Derrick Barnes, Jalen Reeve's Maybin
LB: Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez
CB: Sean Murphy-Bunting, Dwight McGlothern, Decorian Patterson
CB: Cam Sutton, Khyree Jackson, Steven Gilmore
Slot: Brian Branch
S: Iffy Melifonu, Brian Branch
S: Kamren Curl, Kerby Joseph

K: Josh Karty
P: Jack Fox
LS: Scott Daly

Primary focus was to fix the defense.  We were solid in many aspects but often gave up big plays over the top or due to poor tackling so the focus was to add additional bodies at CB and S that can cover and tackle.  Adding solid young vets in Curl and Murphy-Bunting allows the rookies to develop with additional voices to help lead as well as they feel like Holmes types of signings.  Jackson and McGlothern are great prospects that should be able to grow and take reps from the vets rather soon IMO.  The D line, especially the interior needs work still but I don't love many DTs in this draft besides Sweat and Murphy and I didn't really want to take Sweat in the first.  Robinson eases some of that because he can move inside and along with the return of Houston should help our lack of pressure.  Fotu is at least an upgrade to Jones so the line should be a little better with him included. I could see some of the extra cap space used to sign a better DT and/or edge depth but hoping for some growth from Martin and continued growth from Levi as he made some plays down the stretch that we will be ok. 

Offensively we don't need a ton at the moment but need to prepare for the future.  Adding a solid OT prospect to eventually take over for Decker and another solid OG prospect helps keep the line a strength and better prepare us for life after Jonah and Decker.  Shelton is a solid stop gap replacement for Glasnow that can play both OC and OG.  Between Sorsdal, Awosika and the two rookies, I would feel very good about the current state and future of our lines.  Adding Rice to replace Reynolds would be huge for me.  It also provides insurance for Jamo.  I could see us keeping DPJ if he is cheap but also think we want to conserve some of our cap space.  

Future outlook, Decker and Jackson will be off the boos in 2025 with a young, cheaper option taking its place.  Sutton will be a cut candidate as long as the young guys play well enough to push him to the bench.  We will be in a good spot to be able to pay ARSB and Goff while replenishing young talent around them.  

[Just Want A Title]

You have a ton of solid moves in this mock.  Kamren Curl is a very under-rated player.  Darius Robinson is a great fit.  Kiran Amegadji has huge upside as an OT.  Mason McCormick and Joshua Karty are really solid picks also. 

Edited February 23 by Just Want A Title

[detfan782004]

Actually like the mock. Love bringing in K completion although some think because he made all his FG last year our kicker is fine. All 4 of them FG but not all his extra points. 
 

Love the WR you picked since Detroit lacks a #2 

[Just Want A Title]

Your draft reflects what I suspected and is now increasingly being shown in the evaluation process to this point:  This draft lines up up really well with what the needs of the Lions:

1.  The Lions need a tackle to replace Taylor Decker:  This draft is absurdly deep at OT and give the Lions the chance to draft his successor even if they make no moves during the draft.

2.  The Lions need a CB:  This draft doesn't have any elite CBs but it sure seems to have a lot of very good CBs with a lot of them projected to be available in Round 2

3.  The Lions need a PK:  Will Reichard, Joshua Karty and Mevin Harris are really good kicking prospects.  

4.  DE and DT:  Much like CB, there won't be any high-end players available to the Lions but there will be some pretty good prospects available to the Lions.  

 

A lot of folks, myself included, see Darius Robinson as their pick at 29.  This may be one of the few times where the perfect fit for the Lions might actually happen.  

[detfan782004]

1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

Your draft reflects what I suspected and is now increasingly being shown in the evaluation process to this point:  This draft lines up up really well with what the needs of the Lions:

1.  The Lions need a tackle to replace Taylor Decker:  This draft is absurdly deep at OT and give the Lions the chance to draft his successor even if they make no moves during the draft.

2.  The Lions need a CB:  This draft doesn't have any elite CBs but it sure seems to have a lot of very good CBs with a lot of them projected to be available in Round 2

3.  The Lions need a PK:  Will Reichard, Joshua Karty and Mevin Harris are really good kicking prospects.  

4.  DE and DT:  Much like CB, there won't be any high-end players available to the Lions but there will be some pretty good prospects available to the Lions.  

 

A lot of folks, myself included, see Darius Robinson as their pick at 29.  This may be one of the few times where the perfect fit for the Lions might actually happen.  

You are right they need a PK. When Campbell said he made some of his questionable calls because of his lack of confidence in kicking game I was done with this kicker. Not his exact words but it's what he was insinuating.

 

[diehardlionfan]

I really like it. Looking ahead with the OT pick. Succession planning is a good thing. Drafting Robinson is solid. 

Good work.

[Sllim Pickens]

18 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Your draft reflects what I suspected and is now increasingly being shown in the evaluation process to this point:  This draft lines up up really well with what the needs of the Lions:

1.  The Lions need a tackle to replace Taylor Decker:  This draft is absurdly deep at OT and give the Lions the chance to draft his successor even if they make no moves during the draft.

2.  The Lions need a CB:  This draft doesn't have any elite CBs but it sure seems to have a lot of very good CBs with a lot of them projected to be available in Round 2

3.  The Lions need a PK:  Will Reichard, Joshua Karty and Mevin Harris are really good kicking prospects.  

4.  DE and DT:  Much like CB, there won't be any high-end players available to the Lions but there will be some pretty good prospects available to the Lions.  

 

A lot of folks, myself included, see Darius Robinson as their pick at 29.  This may be one of the few times where the perfect fit for the Lions might actually happen.  

1. That pick at 62 is tough IMO.  I feel like most players at positions of immediate need are reaches so I took the OT.  I’d assume we want a versatile lineman who could play/compete at guard for now so that helped sway the choice. I hate using such a high pick on a backup but it’s something we greatly need.  
 

2. I see two elite CBs in this draft in Mitchell and McKinstry but I don’t think we will be in position to draft either. However I do love the depth at the position and think there are guys throughout the draft who would be upgrades and fit the system.  I think McGlothern might be someone drafted in the 2nd/3rd round after all of the evaluations and maybe he should be higher. Many others that currently have late round grades that I think fit our system so I don’t feel like we need to panic pick earlier just to fill the spots. 
 

3. I agree. I like all three and I’m sure there are some unknown guys who were at smaller schools that will emerge. Either way we need to find one. I had Reichard as the pick but after digging more I decided Karty is my favorite and has the biggest leg. Also the most consistent over his career. 
 

4. I feel like DL/Edge guys are deep but there are a lot of niche guys. Smaller LB type guys like Houston or 290lb edge guys who are more 3-4 types.  But I do think there are a lot of edge guys who fit our system and need like Braden Trice, Gabe Murphy, Marshawn Kneeland, etc if we miss out on Robinson early.  I love Robinson versatility and gives us a lot of options on the line and how we line up IMO. 

[Karnage84]

Kamren Curl, S - RDEF - 63.1; COV - 67.8; Man - 67.2; Zone - 56.7 (He had a really good 2022 season, so there could be something that led to a poor 2023)
Coleman Shelton, OG/C -  I like this one a lot as a depth player
Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB - Man - 39.2; Zone - 64.9
Leki Fotu, NT -  Fotu has never excelled in one area and has generally graded pretty poorly

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

Kamren Curl, S - RDEF - 63.1; COV - 67.8; Man - 67.2; Zone - 56.7 (He had a really good 2022 season, so there could be something that led to a poor 2023)
Coleman Shelton, OG/C -  I like this one a lot as a depth player
Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB - Man - 39.2; Zone - 64.9
Leki Fotu, NT -  Fotu has never excelled in one area and has generally graded pretty poorly

Murphy-Bunting is the guy who seemed to find a system that didn't fit him.  He was very solid in Tampa the two years prior.  Thats why I went that route as he will sign short deals as a prove it deal, similar to Mosely and CJGJ did last year.  

Curl's numbers were better than Kerby's and he has been a consistent upper 60s PFF grade overall with a great year in 2022 (82).  I may have overpaid him but again he feels like the younger under the radar type with upside that Holmes would target. 

Fotu was a cheap NT throw in to add depth.  He had 2.5 sacks this year which would have been third on our team.  We need bodies for competition and I really wanted to try a different body than Benito Jones.  We do have cap space but we don't have enough to sign a ton of great players.  This could be swapped out with other DT's that are cheaper like Adam Butler, Jordan Elliott, JOnathan Hankins or something but figured Leki may have some potential still and would be super cheap.  

[Just Want A Title]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Murphy-Bunting is the guy who seemed to find a system that didn't fit him.  He was very solid in Tampa the two years prior.  Thats why I went that route as he will sign short deals as a prove it deal, similar to Mosely and CJGJ did last year.  

Curl's numbers were better than Kerby's and he has been a consistent upper 60s PFF grade overall with a great year in 2022 (82).  I may have overpaid him but again he feels like the younger under the radar type with upside that Holmes would target. 

Fotu was a cheap NT throw in to add depth.  He had 2.5 sacks this year which would have been third on our team.  We need bodies for competition and I really wanted to try a different body than Benito Jones.  We do have cap space but we don't have enough to sign a ton of great players.  This could be swapped out with other DT's that are cheaper like Adam Butler, Jordan Elliott, JOnathan Hankins or something but figured Leki may have some potential still and would be super cheap.  

Kamren Curl is a really good safety.  He isn't flashy but he does everything very well and is assignment-sound.  He would be a big upgrade over Kerby Joseph.

[Karnage84]

20 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Kamren Curl is a really good safety.  He isn't flashy but he does everything very well and is assignment-sound.  He would be a big upgrade over Kerby Joseph.

Given how much it seems like we're not set at safety, would you guys take issue with us drafting someone early? I've seen Tyler Nubin and Kamren Kitchens available to us at #29 and other spots. I've personally never really gone after a S as I suspected we were pretty good with Branch, Melifonwu, Joseph and then possibly bringing back CJGJ. 

Is safety a secret need for us?

[Just Want A Title]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

Given how much it seems like we're not set at safety, would you guys take issue with us drafting someone early? I've seen Tyler Nubin and Kamren Kitchens available to us at #29 and other spots. I've personally never really gone after a S as I suspected we were pretty good with Branch, Melifonwu, Joseph and then possibly bringing back CJGJ. 

Is safety a secret need for us?

Given the inconsistent play from Kerby Joseph, I would say yes.  However, part of that might have been coaching also.

[Karnage84]

13 minutes ago, Just Want A Title said:

Given the inconsistent play from Kerby Joseph, I would say yes.  However, part of that might have been coaching also.

I'm not quite ready to roll off of the guy who ended Rodgers' career in Green Bay on a low note. 

I do wonder if LB is also a sneaky need. We did draft Jack Campbell and he could make a jump this year. Barnes did take somewhat of a step up but I don't know if he'd be viewed as a long-term, second-contract kind of guy. 

What if someone like Payton Wilson, NC State's off-ball LB is available to us at 61? He's an athletic guy, and could be in the neighbourhood of 240 lbs. He's strong in coverage, team captain, Bednarik and Butkus award winner, Senior Bowl guy. 

One thing to note: Barnes is a UFA in 2025. His 2024 cap hit is $3.3M. If Barnes is cut, he'd save us $3M. I don't think he will be cut but it's not quite as solved as I had in my head. 

Edited February 28 by Karnage84

[Sllim Pickens]

5 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Given how much it seems like we're not set at safety, would you guys take issue with us drafting someone early? I've seen Tyler Nubin and Kamren Kitchens available to us at #29 and other spots. I've personally never really gone after a S as I suspected we were pretty good with Branch, Melifonwu, Joseph and then possibly bringing back CJGJ. 

Is safety a secret need for us?

I think S is a need, not sure it is a top of the draft need.  Branch is pretty much a CB but can fill in back there.  That leaves us with Iffy and Kerby and Iffy is in the last year of his rookie deal so I would say its definitely a need.  

As of right now, Nubin and Bullard are the only two I would consider in the first or in a small trade down.  I still would prefer not to go that route but wouldn't hate it.  I like some guys we could get with one of our thirds or fifth like Kitan Oladapo, Josh Proctor, Kenny Logan, or Malik Mustapha.  Or could potentially pull an Iffy and draft one of the bigger CBs and turn them into a S like Khyree Jackson, Cam Hart, Josh Wallace, Isaiah Johnson, or Dwight Mcglothern.  Johnson is one who is big (6'5", 205), plays the run very well, excels in zone but struggles in man and could be a star candidate to move to S and get more than his college tape shows. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm not quite ready to roll off of the guy who ended Rodgers' career in Green Bay on a low note. 

I do wonder if LB is also a sneaky need. We did draft Jack Campbell and he could make a jump this year. Barnes did take somewhat of a step up but I don't know if he'd be viewed as a long-term, second-contract kind of guy. 

What if someone like Payton Wilson, NC State's off-ball LB is available to us at 61? He's an athletic guy, and could be in the neighbourhood of 240 lbs. He's strong in coverage, team captain, Bednarik and Butkus award winner, Senior Bowl guy. 

I still feel like with Anzalone, Rodrigo and bringing JRM back, we just don't have a ton of room for another LB.  We rarely run 3 LBs on the field at once anyways so carrying more than 5 and on top of that spending a 2nd round pick on one seems like a stretch.  Especially given the obvious talent need at DL, CB, OL, S and even WR.