Packfanfb's Pre-Combine Monday Mock Off-Season

[packfanfb]

I typically wait until after the combine to do any serious mocks because probably around 50% of what you think know about prospects changes post-combine when the numbers show up. At this point, it all about projection, but F it, here goes: 

Off-Season Moves

UFAs Not Resigned

RB AJ Dillon, TE Josiah Deguara, TE Tyler Davis, T Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan Jr.,

ILB Kristian Welch, Slot/KR Keisean Nixon, S Darnell Savage, S Rudy Ford, CB Corey Ballentine

Really see no need to bring back any of these guys. They are all replaceable and in fact, we should be looking to upgrade at a few positions.

RFAs Not Tendered

RB Patrick Taylor, CB Robert Rochell

UFAs Resigned

ILB Eric Wilson – 1 year, $1.1m - core ST player. Cannot be understated how important Wilson is on ST and he's not a bad backup ILB. 

S Jonathan Owens – 1 year, $1m - went back and forth between him and Ford. I like the idea of bringing one of them back. I picked Owens because I think he's actually a decent player when he's close the LOS. Would fit the prototypical SS look in Hafley's defense and provide cheap depth at a gutted position. 

EFAs Resigned

RB Emanuel Wilson, OT Caleb Jones, P Daniel Whelan

Released

OT David Bakhtiari - $20.9m savings - simple decision. I know people are getting nostalgic and looking for a way to bring him back but Walker has earned the LT spot and he's about $39 million cheaper. Take the dead cap hit now and move on. 

ILB Devondre Campbell (post June 1) - $10.5m savings - Campbell has no role moving forward. I would designate him as a post-June 1 so we get the $10m savings on the back end. 

Extensions

QB Jordan Love - no idea what this is going to look like yet, but it's coming, probably around May-June. 

DT Kenny Clark (or restructure)

Restructure Candidates

RB Aaron Jones - he's a FA in 2025 so might need to add a void year. 

DE Preston Smith - frankly, he's a fringe cut post June 1 cut candidate but I like the idea of hanging onto him for one more year. 

CB Jaire Alexander

 

Free Agent Signings

Jordan Fuller – FS – 6’2”, 203 lbs - 3 years, $15m (age 25)

I think it's fairly obvious the Packers are going to nab a safety in FA, it's simply a question of who and how much. While the Packers could swing for the fences on a couple of big names, that's not their style and their cap situation, while better, isn't "healthy" yet. Fuller makes a lot of sense because he played under Hafley at OSU. He's a versatile player who has enough range to play FS in Hafley's defense and is also a plus-tackler. 

Malik Harrison – LB – 6’3”, 255 lbs - 1 year, $1.5m (age 25)

LB is a sneaky need because if we plan to run a traditional base 4-3 look (mixed in with our 4-2-5 nickel looks), we need to add some bodies at least to the LB room. Campbell will be gone, Walker looks to be the Will LB and McDuffie will probably get the first look at the Mike position. We don't really have a Sam-type LB on the roster right now. Enter Malik Harrison. He's another Hafley guy (played under him in 2019 at OSU along with Fuller). Harrison fits the mold of a traditional Sam-backer with his size. Plus, he's a freak athlete (had a plus-9 RAS). Should be pretty cheap because he hasn't played a ton and should round out base LB core. 

 

Draft

1 (25) – Darius Robinson – DE - Mizzou – 6’5”, 286 lbs (age 23)

Going to keep this simple, Robinson is a freak and Gute likes freaks in the 1st round. If you don't know that, you don't know much about Gutey's draft preferences. Even though Packers went with Van Ness last year, (a) you can never have too many pass rushers, (b) Enagbare is probably out at least half of the season with his late season ACL, and (c) Preston Smith is likely done after this season (Packers are always planning for the future). Moreover, assuming Hafley is around for a while, Robinson fits the more traditional DE/EDGE mold for a 4-3 rusher, playing at around 285-290 with a long frame. 

2 (41) – Jordan Morgan – OT/OG – Arizona – 6’5”, 320 lbs (age 22)

Morgan is a fringe 1st round prospect, but I think there's a chance he slides at least a few picks because some teams probably won't project him as a true OT in the NFL due to his arm length. If he's there at 41, he's too good to pass up IMO because the Packers stand to lose Bak, Nijman and Runyan this off-season. We need to replenish our depth at OT (even if Walker and Tom are your future for the next 3 years-plus). Also, Morgan has the ability to play inside and could instantly push Rhyan for the RG spot. Either way, he could help replace the depth we are losing along the OL. 

2 (58) - McKinnley Jackson – NT/DT – Texas A&M – 6’2”, 320 lbs (age 22)

Sticking with my "draft big guys early" approach. With Clark set to move around on the DL, and Wooden/Brooks both likely to play both DE and DT, the Packers only really have one true NT/1-tech on the 53, Slaton, and he's set to be a FA in 2025. I expect Jackson, for being 320 lbs, to test pretty well and he's a 1-tech with some explosive traits. Keep building and reinforcing the trenches on both sides of the ball.  

3 (88) – Trey Benson – RB – FSU – 6’1”, 215 lbs (age 21)

Okay, we are done adding to the DL and OL for now, time to address our other needs. Overall, IMO, this a "weaker" RB class, and outside of Brooks (who has a busted ACL), I don't see a "he is Him" back in this class. Guys like Corum and Benson would fall next in line for me so I went with Benson here. He has good size and the ability to create big plays in the run game, which is a must for me if I am going to take a RB on Day 2. Needs to get better in some areas like pass protection and overall physicality but the athletic upside is there.  

3 (91) – Jarrian Jones – CB/slot – FSU – 6’0”, 191 lbs (age 22)

Right back to FSU to find our new slot CB. Jones has a good size (which we typically covet even for our slot CBs), and the ability to play inside and boundary. This past year he thrived as a slot CB for FSU. We need to upgrade that position and Jones does that. 

4 (127) – Dadrion Taylor-Demerson – SAF – Texas Tech – 5’11”, 190 lbs (age N/A)

Yes, I did in fact wait until Day 3 to draft a safety. Why? Because overall, the safety group really isn't great and a lot of the guys are pretty much the same class of player, they just specialize in one trait versus another. Outside of Nubin, for me, I really don't see the difference between guys likely to be drafted in the 2nd versus the 4th round. Here, I picked DTD because I think he's a sleeper for possibly being the best FS prospect in the entire class. The only SAF I would say probably has better overall range in his game is Bullock from USC but DTD is a much more physical player despite his size. DTD can absolutely fly around the football field and I expect him to have a good combine. If the Packers want a draft a true center-fielder to initially back up Fuller (or move around elsewhere), DTD is my pick. 

5 (168) – Malik Mustapha – SAF – Wake Forest – 5’11”, 207 lbs (age N/A)

Sleeper safety No. 2. Really like Mustapha's game, especially the physicality he plays with. I was looking at Jordan Whitehead as a possible FA target and Mustapha reminds me of him with the similar style of playing bigger than he is. Thrives as a box, traditional strong safety and would compliment the DTD pick as we try to add to and round out our new safety room. 

6 (204) – Andrew Raym – OC/OG – Arkansas – 6’4”, 310 lbs (age N/A)

Myers is set to be a FA in 2025 and while Raym may not be the long term answer, he would provide depth at the OC position, something we will lose with Runyan leaving as well. Will have to see how he tests to confirm whether he meets our athletic profile for IOL. 

6 (216) - Elijah Jones – CB – Boston College – 6’1”, 185 lbs (age 24)

This is the Jeff Hafley pick. Coached Jones at BC where he played a ton of press man coverage (and performed well at it). Not many people are talking about Jones and he's a bit older so he could last a while. Basically, if puts on another 5-7 pounds, he's Carrington Valentine 2.0. 

7 (243) - Nathaniel Watson – ILB – Miss. St. – 6’2”, 244 lbs (age 23)

Packers add another body to the LB room. Watson is a bigger LB and should have the ability to play the Mike or Sam in Hafley's defense. Main reason for this pick however, is that Watson was a plus-ST player for Miss. St., logging over 500 ST snaps. 

7 (251) – Rasheen Ali – RB – Marshall – 5’10”, 185 lbs (age 23)

Finish things out with another RB. Ali could go a bit earlier on Day 3 but he tore his biceps in the Senior Bowl workouts so he's pretty much out for a lot of the off-season. Ali is a bit undersized but is athletic and solid pass receiver as well. Added competition to a rebuilt RB room behind Jones. 

 

Possible 53-man

QB (2): Love/Clifford

RB (3-4): Jones/Benson/ (Ali / Wilson)

TE (3-4): Musgrave/Kraft/Sims/likely UDFA

WR (6): Watson/Doubs/Reed/Wicks/Melton/ (Heath / Dubose)

OL (9-10): Walker/Jenkins/Myers/Rhyan/Tom/Morgan/C. Jones/Tenuta/Raym/ (Newman)

 

DE (5): Gary/Smith/Van Ness/Robinson/Wooden

DT (5): Clark/Wyatt/Brooks/Slaton/McKinnley

ILB (5): Walker/McDuffie/Harrison/Wilson/Watson

CB (5): Alexander/Valentine/Stokes/J. Jones/E. Jones

SAF (5): Fuller/Owens/Johnson/Taylor-Demerson/Mustapha

 

ST (3): Carlson/Whelan/(probably new LS)

Edited February 27 by packfanfb

[Arthur Penske]

I agree EDGE could happen early.

Isn't the comp pick expected to be a 4th?

Edited February 27 by Arthur Penske

[vegas492]

So refreshing to get a realistic mock offseason and draft.  I may not agree with all the selections, but I cannot fault the thought process.

[OneTwoSixFive]

I liked the free agent pickups and the draft class once it got to the 3rd round and beyond. I didn't love the first two rounds.

Watson (LB) is a superb tackler and at the tail end of the draft he is very attractive. He is slow however (4.8 40).

Round 1 (isn't it pick 25 here ?) I'd prefer any of DeJean, Byron Murphy, or Powers-Johnson. In the 2nd round I'd look at safety (either at 41 or#58) and O line if I didn't take Powers-Johnson and possibly an OT, even if I did.

I always try and fit slot corner Sainristil in, in round 3 if there, but J.Jones is a solid alternative.

I'd like to give someone a chance to be better than Newman down the road. they'd be cheaper too.

@Arthur Penske Comp pick seems to be on the cusp between rounds 4/5.

Edited February 26 by OneTwoSixFive

[ThatJerkDave]

What board are you using for rankings?  Just curious.

 

I would have a pretty hard time complaining about landing Robinson and Morgan (sounds like a law firm) with the first two picks.  They are exactly what the Packers draft.  My main nit pick is Jackson at 58.  Part of me feels like there would be a corner, safety, or linebacker that I like better with that selection, and would be better than the players selected later.  On the other hand, that could also be because I am really high on TJ Slaton.  

[packfanfb]

4 hours ago, Arthur Penske said:

I agree EDGE could happen early.

Isn't tne comp pick expected to be a 4th?

Lazard's comp pick got dropped to a 5th. I'm guessing it was based on playing time...he sat late in the year. 

[packfanfb]

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I liked the free agent pickups and the draft class once it got to the 3rd round and beyond. I didn't love the first two rounds.

Watson (LB) is a superb tackler and at the tail end of the draft he is very attractive. He is slow however (4.8 40).

Round 1 (isn't it pick 25 here ?) I'd prefer any of DeJean, Byron Murphy, or Powers-Johnson. In the 2nd round I'd look at safety (either at 41 or#58) and O line if I didn't take Powers-Johnson and possibly an OT, even if I did.

I always try and fit slot corner Sainristil in, in round 3 if there, but J.Jones is a solid alternative.

I'd like to give someone a chance to be better than Newman down the road. they'd be cheaper too.

@Arthur Penske Comp pick seems to be on the cusp between rounds 4/5.

Good catch on my typo on the pick number. 

I wouldn't be upset with the alternatives you listed. Hopefully we'll have 4 or 5 good choices on the board.

[packfanfb]

1 hour ago, ThatJerkDave said:

What board are you using for rankings?  Just curious.

 

I would have a pretty hard time complaining about landing Robinson and Morgan (sounds like a law firm) with the first two picks.  They are exactly what the Packers draft.  My main nit pick is Jackson at 58.  Part of me feels like there would be a corner, safety, or linebacker that I like better with that selection, and would be better than the players selected later.  On the other hand, that could also be because I am really high on TJ Slaton.  

I mix it up because there's no one board I trust, especially pre-combine. Some boards I've looked at are PFF, Jeremiah and even Draft Network (because it has like 300 guys).

[Sandy]

Absolutely love it at this point of the off-season. Many of these players were going to be in my own upcoming mock draft, so count me in favor.

Nitpicking: I might see us spend more on outside free agents, but you filled all the roster holes in the draft and there are no glaring weaknesses so I really can't complain.

[HyponGrey]

7 hours ago, packfanfb said:

7 hours ago, packfanfb said:

ILB Devondre Campbell (post June 1) - $10.5m savings

 

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. 

Edited February 27 by HyponGrey

[Sandy]

7 minutes ago, HyponGrey said:

I'm pretty sure that's wrong. 

It's in line with Over The Cap's projection, which are usually accurate.

[HyponGrey]

2 minutes ago, Sandy said:

It's in line with Over The Cap's projection, which are usually accurate.

That 10m is savings next year. This year is only 2M when you factor the dead cap. 

Edited February 27 by HyponGrey

[Sandy]

2 minutes ago, HyponGrey said:

That 10m is savings next year. This year is only 2M when you factor the dead cap. 

In this case he was designating him as a post-June 1 release.

[Cheesehead430]

I like. 

[HighCalebR]

LB stays a need here. Don't have any LB bodies who can cover much of anything. That'd be an absolute liability covered up by..

Safety, ok I get it but seems like you'll just be looking again next year. I think (hope) we sign someone who's more accomplished than Fuller. Savage offers the same level of play with better athleticism. As long as the price tag stays down Savage has connections with Hafleys crew as well.