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Why are AFC challengers considered frauds when the "advanced" numbers suggest otherwise?


wackywabbit

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3 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

sorry to burst your Fantasy world where the Jags forever suck but they are Legitimately good and a contendor.  we might not have Playoff experience but we have the Leagues Best Defense and the best rush offense on a yards per game basis and an oline that is playing really well. we have tied for the 5th for Least sacks given up. Bortles has only 8INTS all season(i would really call it 7 if u want to really nitpick that stat) which is good for a tie at 7th place in team ints(its the best way to compare as multiple injured qbs).  

sure bortles has had some Bad Football in the past but hes legitimately has looked improved and Certainly have had worse QB Play. to me hes playing like a 2012 Joe Flacco which as you should know won a Ring. 

:) your name is a dead give away to your lean. Burst what bubble?  I never said they never made playoffs. I said they aren't going to the SB this year no matter  what. 

Stop using the term we.The team doesn't  care about you at all. Just your cash. 

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Season MVP's rarely ever win the SB and I think Brady ends up getting it. On top of that, imo, the Patriots injuries are gonna hurt them come playoff time. I've been saying for a while now that I have a gut feeling that this is the year that Tomlin gets it done against the Belichick in the playoffs. And if the Steelers get HFA throughout, then that "gut feeling" becomes that more realistic leading to a Steelers-Saints SB.

There's not much more that I can add in regards to the other teams that hasn't already been said and I hate just rehashing what others have said, but whatever.

Chiefs: They have the experience but I will never trust any team in the playoffs that is led by Andy Reid. Even that aside, the KC defense that was once the backbone of the team is no where near the same this year that we have seen in the past and I don't trust the inconsistency on offense to get them very far. 

Ravens: From an experience standpoint, they have the 3rd best chance IMO. However, I don't trust Flacco or the offense. Flacco has been terrible with very limited targets and I personally don't believe in that "playoff Flacco" falsehood either. Defensively, I have mixed feelings about. On one hand you can't deny that they haven't been good but I also don't think that they're as good as their stats states either and not good enough to compensate for the lack of offense. 

Jaguars: Now THAT defense is legit! But that's it and they nothing else going for them.....imo. Marone is inexperienced. Bortles may have exceeded exceptions up to this point but based on history I have no reason to trust him.

Chargers: From a competitive standpoint I'm not gonna write them off now after this loss to a division rival in their house like I'm sure many will. But they would need alot of help to get into playoffs so how I think they would perform is a moot point.

 

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I don't think it's necessarily that they're frauds, it's more that none of them have the kind of resume to inspire confidence. All of them either have a glaring hole that is likely to be exploitable in the playoffs (Bortles), they've been so inconsistent that predicting how they'll play in the postseason is a crapshoot (AFC West), or they've already lost to just about any team they'll be facing in the playoffs anyway (Ravens.) I think most of these teams have the potential for things to swing their way and go on a run, I just wouldn't predict it for any of them. KC or LAC or OAK at peak play can challenge anyone. If the Jaguars can avoid having to play from behind, they'll be a pain for anyone to knock out. And playoff Flacco could always repeat. But none of those are as likely as just better, more consistent teams in New England and Pittsburgh, teams that also will have to (most likely) win one less game, making the superbowl instead. These teams aren't frauds, they're just not teams you'd put money on either, even at good odds. There's no one quite like the Rams or the re-Rodgered Packers or the Saints, where you can see enough consistency to say with confidence that they'll play well when the time comes, AND the level of potential to say they could beat anybody. The Chiefs and Chargers have that potential but no consistency. The Jags have both but a glaring weakness. Etc. But like, I'm a Chiefs fan, and I don't know week to week if we're going to score 35 points or 3. It's a mystery. No one is going to put faith in that.

The Titans, as you say, are just frauds, though. Weakest SoS in the NFL. A negative point differential on that weak SoS. A 2 week stretch very early in the season being the only impressive thing on their resume. They're actually just not very good.

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There are only 3 teams in the AFC that would put up a good fight in the super bowl against the NFC.

New England
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville

Kansas City, despite last nights win, has been a mess as of late.
Tennessee is the worst 8-5 team I've seen in a while.
Buffalo's QB situation is an absolute mess right now.
Baltimore, they're starting to warm up, but aren't currently in the picture. We'll see, they might be getting warm at the right time.

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9 hours ago, OleXmad said:

Blake Bortles threw 4 TDs against the Ravens in london, threw for 230ish yards combined the next 2 weeks.

Every QB has good stretches it's what tricks teams into thinking Mike Glennon might be worth 15 million a year, but eventually they all revert back to their true self.

Until proven otherwise Blake Bortles is having a fluky season , if he plays well in the playoffs and somehow doesn't melt down I'll eat my crow like the rest of the doubters but until then MEH.

Well i can already tell u that the steelers game was a clear fluke. We didnt throw a pass for practically an entire 2nd half shoving the ball down the steelers throat. In fact we had only 1 drive the 3rd quarter while the steelers had 4 possessions because we got 2 pick 6s that quarter. 

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1 hour ago, Shady Slim said:

man you could trot andy reid on to the field as signal caller and he'd abuse the texans in the state they're in right now

He couldnt with the wrs we had out there. We really only had 3 healthy wrs for the game.  The 3rd wr was pretty much a punt return specialist who i believe is a 1st year guy who had 1 catch prior to this game and and he had an udfa rookie from Kentucky Wesleyan and a rookie 4th rounder who just completed his 4th game. 

Also its not blakes fault the texans d is injured. U play who u r given and blake completely dominated them. 

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I said this to one of the beat writers several weeks ago when Westbrook came back from IR  (and it did take a few weeks for them to start playing up to it), but I think casual observers don't realize the kind of speed that this Jaguars team now have at wide receiver. 

Lee, Cole, Westbrook are all burners. And Mickens, who up to now has been just a speedy return guy, stepped in today with Lee sidelined and made plays with his speed.

Sure, Bortles has played better the past few weeks (better mechanics and he's dropping dimes instead of ducks), but I'm guessing teams who don't watch this team and don't know these names are underrating the speed of these receivers

That, IMO has been the key to this passing games resurgence. 

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