CP3MVP Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 11 hours ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: No way in hell is this Jags' defense "far better" than the 2015 Broncos. If they genuinely are, they will waltz to a ring, because that was a defense that truly carried a team to SB glory like we haven't seen since the 2000 Ravens. I see the raw numbers, but should they really be compared across different seasons? DVOA gives a pretty clear answer: 2015 Broncos defensive DVOA through 14 games: -28% 2017 Jaguars defensive DVOA through 14 games: -20.1% If you want to convince me that this 2017 Jags defense is far better, let alone even better, you're going to have to convince me with Xs and Os and personnel talk. and for those wondering why the raw stats would tell such a different story than the DVOA, I would assume it's a combination of the SOS (Jags played one of the easiest schedules this season, Broncos had one of the toughest in 2015), the Broncos offense putting them in worse situations and a lot of their points being given up from short fields (at a higher frequency, anyway. Neither exactly have stellar Os) and the lay of the league at the time (quick look shows scoring is down from 22.5 to 22.1/g, and yardage from 353 to 337). NO 02 bucs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
y*so*blu Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Quite a bit. I think a lot of people are still sleeping on this team and I would not be surprised to see them upset someone in the AFC playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandyMossIsBoss Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 hours ago, iPwn said: DVOA is a good stat. It often helps put things in a better picture. But when it’s the only stat that says a defense is better, maybe it shouldn’t be taken as gospel and overrule every other metric. DVOA is cumulative, it's essentially taking all of the numbers you are using into its' equation, plus standardizing it for the season and adjusting for who was played. I don't necessarily think it should be taken as gospel, but I definitely believe it should hold a lot more weight by itself than any of the several individual metrics that make it up when it comes with judging a defense by the numbers. Regardless of what DVOA says, we will hopefully get better idea when the Jags face off against either, or both, the Steelers and Pats in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, RandyMossIsBoss said: DVOA is cumulative, it's essentially taking all of the numbers you are using into its' equation, plus standardizing it for the season and adjusting for who was played. a little like what PFF does, but they get pilloried. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 DVOA is better for accounting for the talent of the defense. PPG is better for accounting for how they are likely to perform. Because no matter what, defense is a function of the offense and special teams as much as every other unit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 23 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said: The best thing they have going for them (other than most things on offense but QB) is that people are still underestimating them. Don't think they can win the Super Bowl this year just because of the lack of playoff experience, but I think they could legitimately upset and possibly blowout a team like the Steelers or Patriots. They literally already did that to one of those two teams. They're allowing 13.9 points per game. 13.9. Under 14 points a game. 16.1 15.7 15.4 13.8 That's the best PPG since the 2013 Seahawks. We all know how that ended. I'd love to see them win the Super Bowl. It would give me hope that any team really can win the Super Bowl any year. It is what the NFL DESPERATELY needs right now. If the Jaguars win the Super Bowl, the NFL has a popularity surge just like the NBA did over recent years. If the Patriots or Steelers win, NFL goes further into a ratings dump. I'm not so sure there is a popularity surge if we win. I also feel like the league will never let it happen if we play Pitt or NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hunter2_1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: I'm not so sure there is a popularity surge if we win. I also feel like the league will never let it happen if we play Pitt or NE The league "let" the jets beat us in 2010. We were a great team that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said: The league "let" the jets beat us in 2010. We were a great team that year. The league also let us win the Super Bowl in the middle of deflategate as opposed to the young upstart impending Seattle dynasty that looked like it was poised to rock the NFL for the next 5 or so years. The league also let the aging Peyton Manning on his way out beat the young red hot Cam Newton who was supposed to be the next great QB in the league. The league also let the Patriots win the Super Bowl again after Brady took his suspension when the entire narrative of the year was that it would be a symbolic middle finger to the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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