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The playoffs!


808

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4 minutes ago, 808 said:

There it is 

 

 

I get it

but if that level of disrespect doesn't get under their skin and show on the field Saturday it'll be so embarrassing...and Carson better be a 100% vote for MVP after that 

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It's a pretty accurate line but it's not telling either way. Which means Vegas doesn't really know. Which means this is going to be a game. 

Of course you would favor the "hot" returning NFC Champs in the playoffs over a team without its starting QB. 

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1 hour ago, Jroc04 said:

It's a pretty accurate line but it's not telling either way. Which means Vegas doesn't really know. Which means this is going to be a game. 

Of course you would favor the "hot" returning NFC Champs in the playoffs over a team without its starting QB. 

vegas doesnt make lines on who they think will win they make lines on who they think people will bet. 

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5 hours ago, ninjapirate said:

vegas doesnt make lines on who they think will win they make lines on who they think people will bet. 

They make lines to mitigate a favorite. Do you gamble? Their opening lines reflect how they think the game will go and let the public bet a line down or up and then adjust to that. Which makes the line fluctuate. But the opening line tells you what Vegas thinks will happen. If Atlanta opened as a 7 point favorite, they'd be screaming a stone cold Falcon win. But it's only 2.5 which is a game that can be bet either way. They're basically telling the betting public to let them decide. It is slightly Atlanta. But you figure it should be considering our QB predicament. 

But you're a good football man. If you were handicapping the game you'd say what? Atlanta should win. In a neutral situation, probably by about 5-8. Right? So, homefield advantage typically gives a team 3 points. And that's a 2-5 point spread for an amateur to look at. And if the actual spread falls into the short side of that then you should know Vegas, at the very least, is saying this game is going to be tightly contested. 

Vegas makes money. It's what it does. But when they are dealing with football games they just have to be on the right side of 50% of the money. For them to put out a line that is just opposite of what they think the public is going to bet is naive and elementary. It's way more complicated than what you're assuming it is. 

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2 hours ago, Jroc04 said:

They make lines to mitigate a favorite. Do you gamble? Their opening lines reflect how they think the game will go and let the public bet a line down or up and then adjust to that. Which makes the line fluctuate. But the opening line tells you what Vegas thinks will happen. If Atlanta opened as a 7 point favorite, they'd be screaming a stone cold Falcon win. But it's only 2.5 which is a game that can be bet either way. They're basically telling the betting public to let them decide. It is slightly Atlanta. But you figure it should be considering our QB predicament. 

But you're a good football man. If you were handicapping the game you'd say what? Atlanta should win. In a neutral situation, probably by about 5-8. Right? So, homefield advantage typically gives a team 3 points. And that's a 2-5 point spread for an amateur to look at. And if the actual spread falls into the short side of that then you should know Vegas, at the very least, is saying this game is going to be tightly contested. 

Vegas makes money. It's what it does. But when they are dealing with football games they just have to be on the right side of 50% of the money. For them to put out a line that is just opposite of what they think the public is going to bet is naive and elementary. It's way more complicated than what you're assuming it is. 

I would say atlanta being the favorites means vegas thinks most action will be bet on them. I think that will also be the case and could see the line creep up as the week goes by. personally I think we beat atlanta I wouldn't favor them at all. 

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7 hours ago, ninjapirate said:

I would say atlanta being the favorites means vegas thinks most action will be bet on them. I think that will also be the case and could see the line creep up as the week goes by. personally I think we beat atlanta I wouldn't favor them at all. 

Probably but usually the line is very telling. It's just not very indicative. Vegas would throw a 7 or 8 up there and hope most people would take the points on a home dog. And then watch Atlanta smoke us. But a 2.5 spread is really minuscule. I'm curious to see how they move the line during the week. 

Maybe we beat Atlanta. I think we can beat them. But if someone were to give you 3 points and Atlanta you take it every day. 

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