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Underdog tournaments/Bestball


adamq

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In 2022 I dipped my toes into the best ball world & did pretty decent, making enough to cover my buy ins with some left over. So last year I went hog wild and drafted just over 100 teams throughout the summer, pretty small stakes. Average buy in was $15, and I ended up winning about 16% of those leagues and doubled my money.

 

This year I am upping the stakes and doing a bunch of entries into Underdog tournaments. The big one is Best Ball Mania 5, $25 buy in with a $1 million top prize. The kicker is these are all 1QB drafts where I am used to doing all superflex.

 

Anyone else entering these types of tournaments? What's your draft strategy? WRs go off the board very quickly but I still like to get at least 1 RB in the 1st 3 rounds because there is always some value to scoop up. I have a lot of Titans on my teams, either RB and usually Chiggy late as my 2nd or 3rd TE. Deebo is a nice target at his ADP, I like any and all Packers WRs too

The ideal build for me is 2QB/5RB/9WR/2TE but that can shift depending on how early I take the first QB/TE

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Stacking is extremely important if you look at the historical data for successful teams in these tournaments. And not necessarily just stacking a QB with his WR, you want to look at the week 16/17 match-ups and correlate your builds.. for example, the SF/Det game is a very popular one, drafting a guy like CMC in the first followed by a LaPorta/Goff stack with some deebo or whomever mixed in

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I mainly do Best Ball on DraftKings but like a slightly more even mix like 3/7/7/3.  With the way QBs went down last year, the third QB saved a couple of my rosters.  I can see only grabbing 2 TEs though but draftkings does 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1 TE, 2 UTIL so I don't feel the need to over do it with WRs.  But depending on who I get at RB, I will sometimes move one of those to a WR too.  

Like most fantasy leagues, hitting on late picks is the way to win. Last year landing Puka and Stroud in a bunch of leagues was clutch so trying to find guys like that who should vastly outperform their ADP is huge.  This year there are a couple of guys I like to do that some due to injury some due to poor seasons last year.  I think Lawrence and Herbert are vastly underrated but they make it easy to pass on QBs early.  I think Jameson Williams has a much bigger year than projected at this point but that could be a boom/bust pick if he doesn't develop like expected.  Rookies are a crapshoot so finding the guys you are high on opportunity wise is fun at this point given its so early and not a lot of info out there.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

The biggest difference i see between the sharps and the fish has nothing to do with player takes, its all about roster construction. I've seen so many teams just draw themselves dead by over drafting multiple QBs/TEs.. there's nothing wrong with taking an elite player but if you follow up a Josh Allen pick in the 3rd with a 6th round CJ Stroud/Joe Burrow there is a minimal chance of even getting your money back.

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On 6/14/2024 at 2:44 PM, adamq said:

The biggest difference i see between the sharps and the fish has nothing to do with player takes, its all about roster construction. I've seen so many teams just draw themselves dead by over drafting multiple QBs/TEs.. there's nothing wrong with taking an elite player but if you follow up a Josh Allen pick in the 3rd with a 6th round CJ Stroud/Joe Burrow there is a minimal chance of even getting your money back.

I agree with that.  And in general I am taking my starters and at least 1 bench RB/WR before worrying about a backup QB.  Although if I wait on QB, I may take my backup a pick or two earlier.  And I would never take a third until the last two or three rounds. But I know with the QB injuries, it can kill your team if you are getting zero points from that spot.  I just feel the impact of Nix or Maye in the 17th/18th round is likely more valuable than a lotto ticket at RB there.  Especially with a couple more picks after that for lotto tickets. 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

I’m maxing out Best Ball Mania V this year, for the first time. 150 teams, $3700 investment. 

54 teams in, here are my top ten owned players:

(remember later round players are easier to get, therefore, they’ll be at the top of my owned listed)

Exposure: my Top 10

1) Jalen McMillian
2) Drake Maye
3) Stefon Diggs
4) Jerome Ford
5) DeMario Douglas
6) Zamir White
7) George Kittle
😎 Terry McLaurin
9) Will Shipley
10) Davante Adams

Edited by Tank4Drake
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I’ve been stacking NE/LAC Week 17 game a lot because it’s so cheap to do so. And I really believe in Drake Maye. 

Last year, I had a team reach Week 16, which is VERY hard to do, about a 0.03% chance of doing so. I didn’t have Pickens though, which was a crucial component if you wanted to advance from Week 16 to 17. 

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On 6/19/2024 at 8:24 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree with that.  And in general I am taking my starters and at least 1 bench RB/WR before worrying about a backup QB.  Although if I wait on QB, I may take my backup a pick or two earlier.  And I would never take a third until the last two or three rounds. But I know with the QB injuries, it can kill your team if you are getting zero points from that spot.  I just feel the impact of Nix or Maye in the 17th/18th round is likely more valuable than a lotto ticket at RB there.  Especially with a couple more picks after that for lotto tickets. 

 

Depends on the year. You needed the 18th Round Kyren lotto ticket at RB last year to win the tournament. 

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BBM1 Winner Build: 3-4-9-2

BBM2 Winner Build: 2-5-9-2

BBM3 Winner Build 3-5-8-2

BBM4 Winner Build: 3-6-6-3

3 QB’s has a worse advance rate to the playoffs than 2 QB’s, but it does help more in the playoffs as you have that additional QB to work with. 

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6 minutes ago, Tank4Drake said:

BBM1 Winner Build: 3-4-9-2

BBM2 Winner Build: 2-5-9-2

BBM3 Winner Build 3-5-8-2

BBM4 Winner Build: 3-6-6-3

3 QB’s has a worse advance rate to the playoffs than 2 QB’s, but it does help more in the playoffs as you have that additional QB to work with. 

I know I have a decent varying amount of 2/3 QB builds but I'm probably at 75%+ 2TE teams, so that needs to be adjusted going forward. I have a lot of Andrews/Kelce in the early r4 range & Engram in late 6th, and just hate adding a 3rd TE with those guys 

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This is in my top 3 favorite teams so far:

IMG-7349.jpg

The Viking/Packer game is stacked well. 

All 3 QBs stacked well. 

Probably will be my only Keaton Mitchell share. He’s not due back until like Week 11… but was thinking maybe he goes off in the playoffs. 

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16 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

Depends on the year. You needed the 18th Round Kyren lotto ticket at RB last year to win the tournament. 

Kyren Williams had an ADP of 169 last year.  Thats not an 18th round lotto ticket, thats a 14th round lotto ticket and likely was peoples 4th-6th RB selected.  Teams that had CeeDee Lamb, Najee Harris, Travis Ettienne and James Connor did well in week 17 too. Jerome Ford would have been another but he likely wasnt drafted in many leagues. 

Teams that had Amari Cooper or Breece Hall did well in week 16 as did teams that took a chance on Derek Carr or Jordan Love. Nobody took carr last year unless he was a 3rd QB most likely.  

Hitting on your early picks to not get injured and finding some good values in the middle rounds is more important than a last round lotto ticket.  And with the QB injuries, it doesnt matter if you had Kyren Williams if you had Burrow/Herbert and Cousins or something along those lines at QB.  Just like in real fantasy, the middle rounds are key and if you draft well/get lucky there, you have a good shot to win. 

 

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39 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Kyren Williams had an ADP of 169 last year.  Thats not an 18th round lotto ticket, thats a 14th round lotto ticket and likely was peoples 4th-6th RB selected.  Teams that had CeeDee Lamb, Najee Harris, Travis Ettienne and James Connor did well in week 17 too. Jerome Ford would have been another but he likely wasnt drafted in many leagues. 

Teams that had Amari Cooper or Breece Hall did well in week 16 as did teams that took a chance on Derek Carr or Jordan Love. Nobody took carr last year unless he was a 3rd QB most likely.  

Hitting on your early picks to not get injured and finding some good values in the middle rounds is more important than a last round lotto ticket.  And with the QB injuries, it doesnt matter if you had Kyren Williams if you had Burrow/Herbert and Cousins or something along those lines at QB.  Just like in real fantasy, the middle rounds are key and if you draft well/get lucky there, you have a good shot to win. 

 

Don’t know what site your using but Kyren Williams was a final round pick in the 18th Round up until the final two weeks of Best Ball Mania. He shot up to the 15th Round ONLY the final five or six days when 97% of contests are already drafted. The winning team took Kyren in the 18th on August 29th. And he still regularly went in the 18th. And he was owned on only 26% of Best Ball Mania teams. 

Also Carr was drafted on thousands of 2QB teams. It’s called taking a risk. In bestball, you take risks. 

Edited by Tank4Drake
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