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Going Deep on Jordy Going Deep (youtube links)

skibrett15

By skibrett15
in Green Bay Packers

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skibrett15

skibrett15

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Below are the All-22 shots of every Jordy Nelson target in every game where he had more than 7 targets, so SEA, CIN, CHI, @MIN, DET, TAM.  Here's the game log (and the obvious Hundley dropoff).

Clearly just looking at his targets is not encompassing his separation skills, but it does save my watching a bunch of clear outs where he isn't trying, or plays where he is blocking (which I think was very good this year) 

Date	  Week	  Tm		Opp	Result	    	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Ctch%	Y/Tgt	TD
2017-09-10	1	GNB		SEA	W 17-9	8	7	79	11.29	1	87.5%	9.88	1
2017-09-17	2	GNB	@	ATL	L 23-34	0	0	0		0	0.0%		0
2017-09-24	3	GNB		CIN	W 27-24	9	6	52	8.67	2	66.7%	5.78	2
2017-09-28	4	GNB		CHI	W 35-14	7	4	75	18.75	2	57.1%	10.71	2
2017-10-08	5	GNB	@	DAL	W 35-31	4	2	24	12.00	1	50.0%	6.00	1
2017-10-15	6	GNB	@	MIN	L 10-23	10	6	60	10.00	0	60.0%	6.00	0
2017-10-22	7	GNB		NOR	L 17-26	4	1	13	13.00	0	25.0%	3.25	0
2017-11-06	9	GNB		DET	L 17-30	7	4	35	8.75	0	57.1%	5.00	0
2017-11-12	10	GNB	@	CHI	W 23-16	4	3	20	6.67	0	75.0%	5.00	0
2017-11-19	11	GNB		BAL	L 0-23	6	2	24	12.00	0	33.3%	4.00	0
2017-11-26	12	GNB	@	PIT	L 28-31	5	3	11	3.67	0	60.0%	2.20	0
2017-12-03	13	GNB		TAM	W 26-20	8	5	17	3.40	0	62.5%	2.13	0
2017-12-10	14	GNB	@	CLE	W 27-21	5	4	33	8.25	0	80.0%	6.60	0
2017-12-17	15	GNB	@	CAR	L 24-31	6	3	28	9.33	0	50.0%	4.67	0

Thoughts:

  • He actually gets open on a few sideline comebacks.  This stops being the case later on, since teams stop respecting his deep speed.
  • The flat routes are not as common as in later games.
  • Deep routes he is not getting open on, with the exception of the broken play where he beats the LB.

 

Thoughts:

Mixed bag here.  He gets good separation in the ez out route for 2nd TD, and ball is late from Rodgers making it tight.  Also good separation on the PA over route (which is a play later on vs Minnesota that becomes a Hundley INT) but most of that is just good play design and a great leading throw.  No separation on sideline routes, including one which is a pick 6.

Thoughts:

Gets really open on the shot play.  Again, no vertical separation on sideline comebacks.  Most of the TD production is flat/slant play design wins, and one blown coverage.  Wins at the top of the route on the slant, but timing is a bit off and he drops it.  Good out route to convert a 4th and 1... he sells the run well.

Very mixed bag here... a few decent plays like the out route where he gets waynes's hips turned then breaks out for easy 11.  No separation from Waynes on the sideline go routes but Rodgers fits in a pretty back shoulder .  Runs a pretty good pivot route for the red zone INT from Hundley.  Doesn't separate on the PA over route like he did vs Cincy.  The flat slants production is pretty lacking here.

Gets open at top of route on slant early on vs 24.  Later on can't separate deep vs Slay.  Doesn't separate on out-n-up double move vs 24.

This is ugly from Jordy.  No production after the catch on the flat plays, which was the entirety of what he did here.  No separation deep on the shot play, and Hundley throws an awful ball to boot.  

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squire12

squire12

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Thanks for doing the work on this.

I hope Nelson is dealing dealing with some undisclosed injury, because he seems to be notably slower on deep stuff and less crisp on shorter routes. Ack much short area burst.

My fear is father time is closing in on him much quicker than I expected.

 

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cooters22

cooters22

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7 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

I like Cobb in the slot. 

I just think that for 10 plus  million a year you'd want more than60 catches and 600 yards out of that position. I like Cobb, but he's just simply overpaid. Unfortunately I think Jordy soon will be too. 

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Kenrik

Kenrik

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5 minutes ago, cooters22 said:

I just think that for 10 plus  million a year you'd want more than60 catches and 600 yards out of that position. I like Cobb, but he's just simply overpaid. Unfortunately I think Jordy soon will be too. 

Yeah I agree Cobb is over paid but moving Jordy to the slot is making the position weaker and still dishing out 12 million. Why is a 32 year old Jordy better than a 27 Cobb? Jordy isnt even as good as Allison... 

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cooters22

cooters22

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11 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

Yeah I agree Cobb is over paid but moving Jordy to the slot is making the position weaker and still dishing out 12 million. Why is a 32 year old Jordy better than a 27 Cobb? Jordy isnt even as good as Allison... 

Moving forward I'd put Allison at that position. And yes I agree with the age thing. Don't mess with father time. I was just posing it as a argument, such as what if they ask the two to take a cut and Jordy does but Randall doesn't. In all the years of Randall on the field why have we not seen him throw a pass? 

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MacReady

MacReady

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I liked this, but I have to be honest and say that I have not looked at it.  I can't take it if it's bad.  Appreciate the effort, but I'm not ready to say goodbye to Jordy.  I was expecting him to add to his HOF case this year.  Instead, I had to watch as his HOF case disappeared completely.  I need to be able to believe he can come back as a slot receiver for one last hurrah with Aaron Rodgers next year. 

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AlexGreen#20

AlexGreen#20

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He's lost a step for sure. 

The rumor that Jordy's hands are becoming arthritic is something that I'm really scared of.

So long as his hands remain consistent, he can still carve out a few more years as a big slot/possession receiver. If his hands are starting to lock up though, that's probably the end.

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{Family Ghost}

{Family Ghost}

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Hate to say it, but we need a major revamp of the receiving corps.  Adams is now a must sign .. Cobb and Nelson are not starting quality receivers any longer .. both have anemic numbers .. Nelson at 9.4 per catch .. Cobb at 10.1.  Nelson has went from 15 to 13 to 9 .. dude might be cooked.  Neither guy is worth their salary any longer.  It will be interesting to see what the front office does.  I guess I could see Nelson returning to finish out his deal, but I can't see both returning .. someone is getting a reworked deal.  Maybe Nelson will pull a surprise retirement?

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Kenrik

Kenrik

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14 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Hate to say it, but we need a major revamp of the receiving corps.  Adams is now a must sign .. Cobb and Nelson are not starting quality receivers any longer .. both have anemic numbers .. Nelson at 9.4 per catch .. Cobb at 10.1.  Nelson has went from 15 to 13 to 9 .. dude might be cooked.  Neither guy is worth their salary any longer.  It will be interesting to see what the front office does.  I guess I could see Nelson returning to finish out his deal, but I can't see both returning .. someone is getting a reworked deal.  Maybe Nelson will pull a surprise retirement?

What?

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Mr. Fussnputz

Mr. Fussnputz

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I said this in another thread, restructure Jordy's contract to make him a Packer for the rest of his career by adding years, lowering his salary, but guaranteeing more money. It's done often as a face saving way of easing a popular veteran into retirement. Sign Adams. Keep Cobb. Sign a top FA WR or two. This unit has desperately needed overhauling since Jordy injured his knee. We've been discussing it at least since then on this site. 

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