Malik Willis traded to Packers for 7th round pick

[HighCalebR]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Thanks.  That's some really interesting data.  I'm hear to learn!  :):). 

You mention the near-even run-pass split.  You got that from some other data source, yes?  I'm not seeing that in the reddit thread. 

I'm actually somewhat surprised that we'd have run almost half on those.  The Reddit table uses 3-yards as "short", for data it's got to be some value set, obviously.  I think I'd have been surprised if we ran half the time on 2- or 3-yards-to-go plays.  That we ran half, even when including not only 1- but 2- and 3-yards-to-go is really interesting and useful data.  I'd have guessed us, and most other teams, would not often be trying to run on 4th-and-2 or 4th-and-3 plays.  Interesting.  

From your comment to vegas, I'm guessing you don't have success rate on run-versus-pass?  Packers obviously do; if they keep running half the time, the success rate running must be competitive with the success rate passing.  Otherwise they wouldn't try to run as often.  

Those numbers probably confirm the source of my dumbness, as Maz suggested.  I selectively remember the fails in San Fran, and in Brazil, but don't necessarily remember that league average is only succeeding 49% on short yardage. 

No, that run pass split comes at the end of the offensive columns just before fg-punt.

Yeah no.. wish i did have the individual success rate. We just have the gross and im sure not going through all that work. Ha.

Lotta work to get that data but damnit pfr figure it our

[squire12]

5 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Seems to me (eyeball test) that when we when are close to the goal line, our run game struggles.

And...if I'm being fair....pass game has been pretty meh as well.

 

 

That should not be surprising as the defense has less field to defend.  you are either running into an 8 man box or throwing into a defense with the DB playing tighter coverage

[squire12]

3 hours ago, craig said:

Thanks.  That's some really interesting data.  I'm hear to learn!  :):). 

You mention the near-even run-pass split.  You got that from some other data source, yes?  I'm not seeing that in the reddit thread. 

I'm actually somewhat surprised that we'd have run almost half on those.  The Reddit table uses 3-yards as "short", for data it's got to be some value set, obviously.  I think I'd have been surprised if we ran half the time on 2- or 3-yards-to-go plays.  That we ran half, even when including not only 1- but 2- and 3-yards-to-go is really interesting and useful data.  I'd have guessed us, and most other teams, would not often be trying to run on 4th-and-2 or 4th-and-3 plays.  Interesting.  

From your comment to vegas, I'm guessing you don't have success rate on run-versus-pass?  Packers obviously do; if they keep running half the time, the success rate running must be competitive with the success rate passing.  Otherwise they wouldn't try to run as often.  

Those numbers probably confirm the source of my dumbness, as Maz suggested.  I selectively remember the fails in San Fran, and in Brazil, but don't necessarily remember that league average is only succeeding 49% on short yardage. 

for 2023, GB

• 3rd and 1-3 yards to go
  • rushing 38 times for 25 1st downs and 2 TD
  • passing 31 times, completing 24 with 23 1st downs and 6 TD
• 4th and 1-3 yards to go
  • rushing 4 times for 3st downs and 1 TD
  • passing 12 times, completing 8 with 7 1st downs and 3 TD

as for success rate, that is hard to calculate as what plays that got the first down also could have gotten a TD, so are you listing it as a 1st or TD or BOTH.  a run on 3rd down that does not convert to a 1st down is not damming if you are planning to go for it on 4th down and succeed on that down.  End outcome being the same, so whether you convert on 3rd or 4th is not a real big concern

 

[craig]

Great data, squire.  thanks!