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The Fall of the Passing Game


Chiefer

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Just now, HerbertGOAT said:

4-5 is a stretch at this point. Mahomes and Allen are the only ATG QBs playing, Lamar is close but his running is more effective than his passing. 

2000-2020 we had 10+ QBs who were at least arguably the best QB in their franchise's history:

Brady (for 2 teams)

Manning (for 2 teams)

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Ryan

Newton

Stafford

Big Ben

Palmer

McNair

Russell Wilson

McNabb

 

Right now we have like 4, at most. Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, and MAYBE Burrow if you want to discredit Ken Anderson (a mortal sin).

 

That era wasn't just "the new best, who will be surpassed by the next generation", it was THE best ever, period. We will never see a QB era like that again.

Those players weren't that good, the league just rigged the passing game to be hyper-efficient.

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13 hours ago, iknowcool said:

I legit did not realize how high the average CMP% has become until this thread.

Of the top 12 QBs in passing yards, 10 of them are 68% or higher (CJ Stroud is at 67.6).  5 are at 70%+, including Jayden Daniels at a ridiculous 82%.

Justin Fields was at 60% in Chicago.  70.6% this year.

I would be interested in seeing how this affects the average game length, assuming it has at all.

Poor Anthony Richardson

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6 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

4-5 is a stretch at this point. Mahomes and Allen are the only ATG QBs playing, Lamar is close but his running is more effective than his passing. 

2000-2020 we had 10+ QBs who were at least arguably the best QB in their franchise's history:

Brady (for 2 teams)

Manning (for 2 teams)

Brees

Rodgers

Rivers

Ryan

Newton

Stafford

Big Ben

Palmer

McNair

Russell Wilson

McNabb

 

Right now we have like 4, at most. Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, and MAYBE Burrow if you want to discredit Ken Anderson (a mortal sin).

 

That era wasn't just "the new best, who will be surpassed by the next generation", it was THE best ever, period. We will never see a QB era like that again.

The Kurt Warner disrespect!

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All the reasons mentioned, but here’s another one that relates to two-high;

Giving up the underneath is being encouraged. You know those light blue zones in Madden/covering flats? They’re not really doing that. They’re throwing bodies a bit deeper and enticing that throw. 
 

 

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6 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Okay? How did the league change things post-2020 for passing to drop off the way it has? 

Yeah, I don't buy the rules thing. Nothing has changed rule wise since 2020 and passing has falling off a cliff. The issue is we had a ton of good/great QBs who retired recently or became washed and they weren't replaced by guys coming into the league in the mid to late 2010s. Like guys like Mariota and Winston should be among the best QB's in the league right now, but instead are busts. 

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1 hour ago, game3525 said:

Yeah, I don't buy the rules thing. Nothing has changed rule wise since 2020 and passing has falling off a cliff. The issue is we had a ton of good/great QBs who retired recently or became washed and they weren't replaced by guys coming into the league in the mid to late 2010s. Like guys like Mariota and Winston should be among the best QB's in the league right now, but instead are busts. 

agreed

going back to 2012 draft.  that is 12 years ago, so those QB would be mid 30's.  Moving forward there are a lot of QB that never really did much that should be in their prime

  • 2012 -- Luck and RG3 have been out of the league for 5+ years.  Tannehill is out.  Wilson is hanging on, but has been on a down slide for several years.  Only Kirk Cousins is still playing
  • 2013 -- Manuel, Geno, Glennon.  Geno is hanging on, but was nothing for nearly 10 years
  • 2014 -- Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Garoppolo.  Only Carr is playing regularly and is a bottom 1/2 to bottom 1/3 QB
  • 2015 -- Winston and Mariota are both backups and have been for a couple years
  • 2016 -- Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Hackenberg, Brissett, Dak.  Goff and Dak are starters, Brissett is a career stop gap QB
  • 2017 -- Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer.  Trubisky is a bust, Watson is bad, Kizer was a never a thing
  • 2018 -- Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph.  Allen and Jackson are top tier, Mayfield has bounced around and looks like a top 10-15ish QB at the moment. Darnold is having a surprise year, but who knows how long that lasts
  • 2029 -- Murray, Jones, Haskins, Lock, Minshew.  None of them have really made a move to get into a top 10 level 
  • 2020 - Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts.   Tua is concussion plagued, Herbert started hot and has faded.  Love is a 1 year and ???  Hurts has had a couple solid years, but seems to be at a plateau or maybe regressing
  • 2021 -- Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones.  4 years in and this group should be coming into their prime and 4 have been traded and 1 is overpaid and looking like a bad megaQB contract
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2 hours ago, squire12 said:

agreed

going back to 2012 draft.  that is 12 years ago, so those QB would be mid 30's.  Moving forward there are a lot of QB that never really did much that should be in their prime

  • 2012 -- Luck and RG3 have been out of the league for 5+ years.  Tannehill is out.  Wilson is hanging on, but has been on a down slide for several years.  Only Kirk Cousins is still playing
  • 2013 -- Manuel, Geno, Glennon.  Geno is hanging on, but was nothing for nearly 10 years
  • 2014 -- Bortles, Manziel, Bridgewater, Carr, Garoppolo.  Only Carr is playing regularly and is a bottom 1/2 to bottom 1/3 QB
  • 2015 -- Winston and Mariota are both backups and have been for a couple years
  • 2016 -- Goff, Wentz, Lynch, Hackenberg, Brissett, Dak.  Goff and Dak are starters, Brissett is a career stop gap QB
  • 2017 -- Trubisky, Mahomes, Watson, Kizer.  Trubisky is a bust, Watson is bad, Kizer was a never a thing
  • 2018 -- Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph.  Allen and Jackson are top tier, Mayfield has bounced around and looks like a top 10-15ish QB at the moment. Darnold is having a surprise year, but who knows how long that lasts
  • 2029 -- Murray, Jones, Haskins, Lock, Minshew.  None of them have really made a move to get into a top 10 level 
  • 2020 - Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love, Hurts.   Tua is concussion plagued, Herbert started hot and has faded.  Love is a 1 year and ???  Hurts has had a couple solid years, but seems to be at a plateau or maybe regressing
  • 2021 -- Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, Jones.  4 years in and this group should be coming into their prime and 4 have been traded and 1 is overpaid and looking like a bad megaQB contract

Well and there's that lol

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I’ll guess ages of quarterbacks are younger by comparison. They don’t produce the kind of results early and some general manager benches their guy. Percentages don’t improve after three seasons then maybe you truly know something.

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12 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

I love it.

Started really following the NFL closely around ~2003. Favorite type of football game is a 23-20 slobberknocker. Glad it’s not just a foregone conclusion that teams will score 24+ every week

Peak Jamal Lewis times ay?

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