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BDL 2024 Week 5: Cwmfelinfach Pstrash Pterodactyls @ Cuba Smugglers


Who Wins?  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Wins?

    • Cwmfelinfach Ptrash Pterodactyls
    • Cuba Smugglers

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  • Poll closed on 10/10/2024 at 04:00 AM

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BDL 2024 Week  5

Match:  Cwmfelinfach Ptrash Pterodactyls @ Cuba Smugglers 

Away Owner:   @TL-TwoWinsAway

Home Owner:    @MD4L

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

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Cwmfelinfach

QB Jayden Daniels
RB Bijan Robinson
WR Tyreek Hill
WR Jameson Williams
WR Ladd McConkey
TE George Kittle
LT Paris Johnson
LG Peter Skoronski
C John Michael Schmitz
RG Brandon Scherff
RT Dillon Radunz

QB Kyler Murray
RB Ty Chandler
RB Tank Bigsby
WR Tee Higgins
WR Alec Pierce
TE Mike Gesicki
OG Laken Tomlinson
OC Robert Hainsey


DE Sam Hubbard
INT Chris Jones
INT Christian Wilkins
DE Byron Young
MLB Germaine Pratt
OLB Christian Rozeboom
CB Darius Slay
CB Cam Lewis
CB Cordale Flott
S Trevon Moehrig
S Tyler Nubin

Edge Arnold Ebiketie
INT Mekhi Wingo
LB Brian Asamoah
CB Andrew Booth Jr.
OLB Jamin Davis
CB Mike Sainristil
S Antonio Johnson



Cuba:

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Travis Etienne
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Zay Flowers
WR: Tyler Lockett
TE: Noah Fant
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Elgton Jenkins
C - Garrett Bradbury 
RG: Ezra Cleveland
RT: Tytus Howard

 

RB: Zach Charbonnet
WR: Jakobi Meyers
RB: Gus Edwards
TE: Gerald Everett
FB/OL: Kyle Juscyzk
FB: Pat Ricard
OL: Shaq Mason
QB: Trevor Lawrence

 

Edge: Rashan Gary
DT: Grover Stewart
DT: Zach Sieler
Edge: Andrew Van Ginkel
WLB: Jahlani Tavai
MLB: Bobby Okereke
RCB: Martin Emerson
NCB: Alontae Taylor
FS: Xavier McKinney
SS: Justin Simmons
LCB: Denzel Ward

 

Edge: Lukas Van Ness
Edge: Josh Uche
DT: Maliek Collins
DT: Karl Brooks
LB: Henry To’Oto’O 
LB: Dorian Williams
CB: Kelee Ringo
S/CB: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

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Cwmfelinfach

Mindset

The Pterodactyls enter Week 5 in search of identity - and a rebound win against a quality opponent. We plan on feeding off of Jayden Daniels' historic start to make enough plays within a play-action, pass-oriented (70-30) offense to get the win.

 

Offense 

We're not planning any fancy tricks or schemes for this one: good ol' fashioned play-action with a mobile, young, smart QB, quality short-yardage weapons and elite speed on the outside should be able to get it done.

Ty Chandler returns to the bench as Cwmfelinfach returns to base 3-WR sets, with Tyreek Hill and Jameson Williams pressuring the underwhelming Cuba corners deep while McConkey and Kittle eat underneath. Bijan will see a few inside carries, but will get his hands on plenty of short dump-offs, and Jayden will have the green light to run when the opportunity presents itself. 

We feel that a simplified scheme that works to get the most out of the offensive skill players should be enough to move the ball and put points on the board.


Defense

Losing run-stopping extraordinaire DeMarcus Lawrence for the next four weeks is a blow to what we do in Cwmfelinfach, but, fortunately, we're encountering a Smuggler offense that is facing their fair share of slumping play. We're less concerned about Etienne, and expect Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins to cause significant disruption from the center of the 4-2-5 defense.

On the back end, we'll remain in zone coverage, with Slay, Cam Lewis and Cor'Dale "Root Beer" Flott seeing the bulk of the CB snaps, and with impressive rookie Tyler Nubin continuing his strong play deep. We'll keep both safeties deep in an attempt to take the deep ball away from Justin Jefferson, although we won't pretend that we'll keep him quiet. Still, with an emphasis on playing the pass against a team we expect to come out throwing, we think we'll be able to do enough to stay competitive in this one.


Summary

With impressive rookie Jayden Daniels moving the ball quickly to a talented group of pass-catchers, and with a defense schemed to stop the pass against what should be a pass-oriented opponent, we feel that we're in a decent position to stop the skid against the Smugglers.


 


 

Cuba

Intro: This week we play our first matchup against Cwmfelinfach and their upstart roster. This will be a tremendous test as we get our first look at TL and his new possible franchise QB Jayden Daniels

 

Offense: Another week of a massive target share for Justin Jefferson. Cwm has some solid players  but Justin Jefferson has a good advantage against iso coverage and whatever form of bracket coverage they will attempt. Jefferson will be featured across the formation to force Cwm to account for him on the right or left side plus another 30% of snaps in the slot. We are going to utilize quick routes at the start of the game to get Rodgers on a rhythm. In the slot we’ll work Jefferson on more seam routes with play action concepts that will hopefully attract safety play. Back shoulder fades will be a staple on boundary sets as Rodgers to Jefferson on those 50/50 passes are more 70/30 this week. In the second half, those back shoulder fades will turn to come back, hitches, and quick in cuts. All these routes can and make deep safety help obsolete, so if Jefferson gets brackets help, Zay Flowers will have some chances to break big plays. 

 

Flowers will also maintain a reasonable target share. Jefferson cannot be targeted every play and Flowers has some winnable matchups against a young and non proven secondary through 5 weeks of the year. Flowers will be running more progressive routes, and we want him to test the back end of the secondary on numerous occasions. We envision a game script of 35 passes minimum and Flowers should like Jefferson command over 10 targets. While the Ravens don’t need to use Flowers down field, our offense is more tailored to making him a big part of our offense and we have some crossing stacks with Jefferson in the slot we will lineup on 20% of our snaps. 

 

The remainder of our guys get the complimentary targets, which should round up to about 15 passes. Lockett, Meyers, Fant, Charbonnet, and Etienne will split those reps amongst themselves which should give the offense some needed balance and keep the chains moving once Rodgers gets comfortable.

 

The pass:run ratio will be closer to 60:40 so we still have real intentions to not have Rodgers chucking it up every play. Etienne will be testing the edges all game and particularly on the edge where Lawrence replacement will line up. We want to establish more boundary runs that have Etienne getting to a foot race toward the edge and follow it up with some cut back runs in the second half. Etienne should be looking at about 60% of the RB carries and a similar split in terms of snaps. Zach Charbonnet has earned the elevation to RB2 and owns the 3rd down/2 minute snap share as it stands. Juscyzk will line up with Etienne and Charbonnet on about 25% snap rate to give us a true lead blocker and we’ll throw in a jumbo personal on about 5% of snaps with Ricard at FB, Juscyzk as the swing TE and run it up the middle.

 

OL notes: Charles Cross will do most of his work solo. Garrett Bradbury returns to the starting lineup. We will double Jones when he is not being blocked by Jenkins on all occasions. If Jones gets Jenkins, we’ll send help on some occasions but will give us two players to block on Christian Wilkins which can potentially spring some big runs. Tytus Howard will get help from Fant or the TE before running his route. 

 

 

Defense

 

This week we get the young sensation known as Jayden Daniels. So far he’s throwing at an 80% clip and is leading his RL offense to scores on basically every drive over the last 3 weeks. It’s hard to say there’s a book on stopping him (show me what NFL team has done it) so this is more of a game we’ll focus on doing what we do best and orientating it to whatever we notice Cwm will aim to accomplish.

 

Tyreek Hill is trapped IRL but in BDL he’s with a fun QB who’s got the arm to get it to him deep and can scramble and give him time eventually get open. We are not going to be in man coverage all game but our pre-snap looks will be the same. Ward will be spending 80% of his snaps following Hill. Alontae Taylor will get the other handful of snaps depending on the personnel Cwm trots out. Taylor can match Hill on strict speed basis but we would obviously keep McKinney serving as the deep threat with 4 INTs in 4 games.

 

Having a designated guy gives an extra corner back will have overall pocket guy. Our goal is keeping speed on Tyreek and balancing that with a safety deep.

 

IRL Daniels has profited from quick passes so we’ll use more press presnap looks and deploy more cover 3 snaps to assure the deep safety has help overtop.

 

If Cwm plays 4 WRs, we’ll use more cover 3-4 sets. Rush the passer with 4, keep safeties deep.

 

If Cwm plays 12 personnel we’ll do more cover 2 variances but Ward will play 10-15 yards off the ball and stay further in coverage basically giving Hill cheap completions but avoiding the deep ball.

 

We’d like to bring a safety into the box consistently to account for Daniels speed.

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Chatgpt is back

 

**Winner: Cuba**

**Reasoning:**
Cuba’s strategy effectively counters Cwmfelinfach's strengths. While Jayden Daniels has been on fire, Cuba’s defense is well-equipped to limit big plays by focusing on Tyreek Hill with pre-snap disguises and deep safety help. Their use of press coverage and cover-3 will disrupt Daniels' rhythm, and Cuba’s defense is prepared to contain Daniels' mobility by bringing a safety into the box. On offense, Justin Jefferson’s ability to dominate coverage and Zay Flowers' involvement will keep Cwmfelinfach's secondary under pressure, while Etienne's edge running will exploit gaps, particularly with DeMarcus Lawrence out for Cwmfelinfach.

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1 minute ago, Scoundrel said:

We’ve got a Flott and a Rozeboom

Put some respect on Rozeboom's name. The guy is a sweetheart: makes tons of tackles (currently 15th overall in the NFL) and has the decency to let the offensive player gain a handful of yards before bringing them down. It's the type of team player we look for in Cwmfelinfach.

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Okay. Ready to give a tough verdict. The upstart Ptrash comes to play against a great Cuba team. It is getting tough to ignore what Jayden Daniels is doing and TL has equipped him with some solid receiving talent that he can utilize in this matchup to do damage (will be even better once Tee Higgins is off the Ptrash bench). When I look at the Ptash offense and a defense that is going to need to put some kind of pressure on Daniels, I get concerned that he will have time in this matchup (Rashan Gary is struggling to generate pressure this yr and it hurts Cuba).

Cuba also has a nasty WR combo of JJ and Zay Flowers that I really like and makes this a high scoring contest. DIfference maker for me is that Ptrash, even against a solid OL, is going to wreak havoc intermittently via his best in BDL Interior DL that is going to put a lot of pressure on an old Aaron Rodgers to keep getting the ball out. Give me a high scoring fun affair were the score is 34-27 CWM, with the deciding factor being interior pressure from the Ptrash DL that stops some key Cuba drives from scoring.

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Tytus Howard was out Sunday, so I guess Jenkins moves to tackle (ew) and Shaq Mason starts at guard (ruh-oh).

Both these teams have some gross offensive line issues. The difference is one is starting a mobile, explosive QB and the other has a 40-something with a bum ankle. I think Jefferson eats here against zone coverage, but it's a stingy Cuba defense with star FA pickup Xavier McKinney making the difference late.

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Cuba OL, especially the interior, is a mess and it's a bad time to face Chris Jones and Wilkins. I do like Cuba's plan however, I think hitting JJ underneath against a team pinning two guys deep works out well. Frogs knows that I'm a TLaw apologist, and I think Cuba has better chances to move the offense with him than Rodgers tbh. On Cwfach side, I think Sainstril has shown enough to start in that CB trio.

The other side matchup is really fun. Cwfach offense is developing at a rapid rate to the point where what was maybe the strength of the offense in week 1 in Bijan might be the weaker point? With a highly performing young QB, a decent RB, probably 7 dangerous WR/TE and a surprisingly functioning pair of tackles, I think that offense can do some damages. The IOL is probably a bit weaker and Sieler is going to have a good day, but Daniels is mobile enough to mask some of those deficiencies. Cuba D is no slouch either and McKinney is definitely a threat. But in the end, I don't think they can hold up Cwfach firepower consistently enough.

Cwfach 27 - Cuba 17

Edited by TedLavie
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I think if Rodgers didn't completely crap the bed this week, I'd go Cuba but it's hard to ignore how bad he looked. And on the flip side it's impressive how well Daniels has played so far. I think this one is definitely a shootout with Cwmfelinfach's offense playing really well right now. I think that push comes to shove, their secondary isn't going to be able to fully take advantage of Rodger's struggles and Cuba's defense will clamp up at the right time. In a very close one that I've honestly flip flopped on multiple times, I'm going Cuba.

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The Cuba offense honestly looks a bit dysfunctional this week.  

And CPP's offense is really rounding into form.

I like the Cuba defense more front to back, but I just think CPP is better right now.

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