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BDL 2024 Week 6: Ivory Coast Black Rhinos @ Cuba Smugglers


Who wins?  

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  1. 1. Who wins?

    • Ivory Coast Black Rhinos
    • Cuba Smugglers

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  • Poll closed on 10/17/2024 at 04:01 AM

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BDL 2024 Week  6

Match:  Ivory Coast Black Rhinos @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner:    @RuskieTitan

Home Owner:   @MD4L

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

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Ivory Coast Black Rhinos
Ivory Coast Offense
QB - Brock Purdy
RB - Alvin Kamara
WR - Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - Terry McLaurin
WR - Jordan Addison
TE - Evan Engram
LT - Trent Williams
LG - Juice Scruggs
OC - Tyler Biadasz
RG - Zack Martin
RT - Tyler Guyton
------------------------------------
RB - Antonio Gibson
RB - Ezekiel Elliott
WR - Jalin Hyatt
WR - Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
TE - Brenton Strange
OL - Terence Steele
OL - Josh Myers
------------------------------------

Ivory Coast Defense
DE - Myles Garrett
DT - Sebastian Joseph-Day
DT - Da'Ron Payne
DE - Khalil Mack
MLB - Bobby Wagner
OLB - Drue Tranquill
CB - AJ Terrell
CB - Trevon Diggs
NCB - Greg Newsome II
S - Jordan Whitehead
S - Kyle Dugger
------------------------------------
DE - Dallas Turner
DE - Darrell Taylor
DE/DT - Cameron Jordan
DT - Shy Tuttle
LB - Edgerrin Cooper
LB/S - Marte Mapu
CB - Samuel Womack III
S - Amani Hooker
------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cuba

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Zach Charbonnet
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Zay Flowers
WR: Tyler Lockett
TE: Noah Fant
LT: Charles Cross
LG: Elgton Jenkins
C - Garrett Bradbury
RG: Ezra Cleveland
RT: Darnell Wright

RB: Travis Etienne
RB: Samaje Perine
FB: Kyle Juscyzk 
FB/T/TE: Pat Ricard
TE: Gerald Everett
WR: Marvin Mims
OL: Tytus Howard
QB: Trevor Lawrence 

Edge: Rashan Gary
DT: Zach Sieler
DT: Grover Stewart
Edge/SLB: Andrew Van Ginkel
WLB: Jahlani Tavai
MLB: Bobby Okereke
RCB: Shaq Griffin
NCB: Alontae Taylor
FS: Xavier McKinney
SS: Justin Simmons
LCB: Martin Emerson

Edge: Lukas Van Ness
DT: Maliek Collins
DT: Karl Brooks
DT: Dewayne Carter
Edge: Josh Uche
LB: Dorian Williams
CB: Renardo Green
S/CB/Star: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson

Edited by RedGold
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Ivory Coast

Motivation: Beat Cuba.


Offense
Primary Formation: 11 personnel (Single Back & Shotgun formations)
Running Game Focus:
⦁    Use 11 personnel to spread out the box and allow our OL to win matchups
⦁    Use double-teams on inside runs with our guards before reaching the second level to generate holes for our backs
⦁    Take advantage of outside zone runs to the left side (behind Trent Williams), though we'll include some to the right side as well
⦁    Take advantage of overpursuit with draws and counters
⦁    Use pre-snap motion out the backfield to lighten the box pre-snap, both in 21 and 11 personnel

Passing Game Focus:
⦁    Use majority of 11 personnel to allow for mismatches with our receivers and other receiving weapons
⦁    Let Purdy go through his reads and get the ball to the open man
⦁    Take advantage of our receivers going up against their secondary
⦁    Exploit our athletic tight end in mismatches
⦁    Use our receivers YAC ability to take short catches into medium/big gains
⦁    Get the ball out quick to help offset offensive line pass protection, and use sliding protection and additional blockers if needed
⦁    Take advantage of our athletic tight ends, welcoming Evan Engram back, and shift them out for mismatch opportunities; also use Kamara and the other backs in a similar fashion coming out of the backfield both pre-snap as well as post-snap
⦁    Throw in some screen plays, both HB and WR variations
⦁    Take what the defense is giving
⦁    Against Zone we’ll utilize flood concepts against one side of the field
⦁    Against Man we’ll feature slants, rub routes, and stop-and-go routes
⦁    Incorporate jet sweeps and passes to beat an aggressive defense
⦁    Use the running game to set up the play-action pass later on
⦁    Take advantage of play-action to hit the intermediate and deep routes

 

Defense
Defensive Formation:

The 4-2-5 alignment will be the primary alignment against three receiver sets. Payne and Joseph-Day will man the middle, with Tuttle rotating and Jordan spilling time inside as well. Garrett and Mack start on the edges, with rotations to keep them fresh all game long (Turner, Taylor). Bobby Wagner and Drue Tranquill are the off-ball linebackers, with Wagner being the primary linebacker. Our trio of cornerbacks will be Greg Newsome II, Trevon Diggs, and AJ Terrell. We plan to use Diggs and Terrell as our boundary corners, with Newsome manning the slot. When Cuba goes with 2 receivers or fewer, Newsome will come out, and Edgerrin Cooper will come on to take the weak-side linebacker spot, with Drue Tranquill taking the strong side and Bobby Wagner holding the middle. Whitehead and Dugger will operate at the safety spots, rotating the primary deep safety in cover-1 to avoid tipping anything pre-snap; Hooker is ready to step in if needed. If and when Cuba uses 4 receivers, we’ll counter by having Tranquill come out and bring in Womack III as the dime back. We'll use both man and zone against 4. If they ever go 5 wide, we’ll play a mixture of zone coverages with 4-1-6 personnel. 

Against the Pass:
⦁    Rely mainly on man underneath with keeping usually two but at least one safety over the top
⦁    Mix in zone coverages if they are taking advantage of routes to beat man and cause the quarterback to hold on the ball just a moment longer for our pass rush to win
⦁    Collapse interior of the pocket to prevent room from stepping up and get pressure up in the quarterback's grill
⦁    Rotate defensive line to keep constant pressure and force mistakes
⦁    Collapse the pocket from the use of our elite edges and constantly pressure the quarterback, often into making bad throws
⦁    Don't give up the deep pass and wear the offense down
⦁    Take advantage of pass rush pressure to generate turnovers
⦁    Alternate Mack, Garrett, and Jordan inside on certain passing, as well as third and long packages while bringing Turner and Taylor off the bench for a ferocious pass rush

Against the Run:
⦁    Secure the tackle first and foremost to limit yards after contact
⦁    Let secondary defenders work on stripping the ball
⦁    Trust our defensive line to win matchups
⦁    Edges will contain the outside runs
⦁    One safety to drop down into the box pre-snap if needed
⦁    Constant rotation of defensive line to keep players fresh and wear down offensive line

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cuba

Pregame: A humbling last two weeks with two should be wins that are a tie and outright loss. I accept full responsibility for our performance recently and let’s be clear; We have sucked. An excellent Ivory Coast team is next so our work is cut out to snap the two games without wins. We are locked in.

 

Offense: This is one of the more talented secondaries we have faced and Ivory Coast matches that with a talented pass rush. Our gameplan this week will revolve around a more balanced running approach and a slight lean overall to running the ball. We have seen what a Zach Charbonnet workhorse role looks like and will give him a near dead even split with Etienne in the first half. We want to target 25 combined carries minimum so Charbonnet will get more full drive touches while subbing in for Etienne on his sets when we have 3rd and longs. Whether Drue Tranquil (a more cover savvy LB) is added into the depth chart, our commitment to the run will remain active and particularly in the first half. We will throw in some Harbaugh sets (13 personnel) that will include Ricard AND Juszcyk alternating at FB and TE to give us extra size up front. Charles Cross has excelled in the running game this year and with Myles Garrett a bit banged up, we want Ricard on his side to give Garrett multiple big bodies to deal with against the run. We have some play action we can use on these sets with quick roll outs to Juszcyk or screens to Charbonnet. If Etienne looks good, our first half 55:45 split will move to 40:60 with Etienne taking more command of early downs and using stretches and tosses to A) let Etienne test to boundary of the edge or B) give him cut back lanes to advance into the second level.

With more intention to running, we still have our 11 personnel but will use it closer to 45% of snaps. The target distribution will be limited but include hefty target shares to Jefferson and Zay Flowers. We have some screens incorporated to get Lockett a handful targets but with a ceiling of 28 attempts (game script provided), Jefferson should receive 10 as a floor and 14 as a ceiling. We trust Jefferson continuously to win his matchup and his target share will be frequently in the 8-15 DoT range. On second downs with less than 8 yards, Jefferson will be the highlighted player with intentions to get him just over the first down market and keep the offense flowing. Flowers will run underneath routes on those opportunities and we hope crossing them together (they will lineup on opposite sides but will combine more cross/drag concepts) will leave some opportunities for Rodgers to get them the ball against zone or man coverage.

OL notes: Most of the runs will be toward the right side. Fant, Everett, Juscyzk, Ricard will play roles in chipping Garrett. We will dictate the down RB to helping Darnell Wright. If we get plenty of Garrett vs Wright, Mack vs Cross will be more iso matchups and we will trust Aaron Rodgers to slide up the pocket and find his man or keep the run game efforts going.

Defense: This is our first week going against Brock Purdy and it is safe to say the defense has its work cut out with the opposing receiver crew.

In spite of what seems to be a mismatch between our receivers and their secondary, we will still aim to make slowing down the run game our priority. This is a double benefit as our own prerogative is establishing the run so the potential effects of keeping IC off the field could lead to earning a win. Alvin Kamara figures to maintain a significant workload and we want to lock in on him as a runner on early downs. We’ll utilize a lot more zone blitzes have Alontae Taylor (4 sacks) blitz off the slot and Van Ginkel drop back in coverage opposite side. If we recognize early IC anticipates this and throws to the spot we blitz, we’ll rotate Van Ginkel to Taylor’s side and have him drop back with the same intention to distrupt the quick pass game with the best short area receiver in football.

Moving back to Kamara, Simmons will move down into the box so even in a 4-2-5 we want 8 people within 7 yards of the line of scrimmage. Our coverage today will almost be exclusively zone coverage. Simmons often be covering underneath but we’ll let him play as the last line on a couple of snaps with McKinney moving closer to the LOS and eyeing Amon-Ra St. Brown. We will use more 3 safety with CGJ serving as the last line of defense so Simmons and McKinney can get more involved in the middle of the field. This is also imperative with Purdy being incredibly effective pivoting off from the first read and using his legs in scramble drill situations. Inspite of his fluidness in this regard, Purdy remains most comfortable targeting the intermediate range and not the deep area game ala prime Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson. Having McKinney and Simmons pivoting closer to the LOS will assist us in having ball hawks within the area to make plays. We have a viable rotation of bodies up front and can move Van Ginkel to OLB on a handful of snaps to give the defense some versatile looks and size up front.

The defensive gameplan against the pass will be predicated on different looks toward St. Brown. He’s an elite first read option with highly capable upside. Having Alontae Taylor in coverage (he’ll blitz on 30% of snaps) will help the defense lined up with St. Brown gives us a coverage defender who can get him on the ground but our drop coverage from the safeties will have Simmons and McKinney alternate looks to be around the short DoT that St. Brown can turn into big plays. With less reliance on man, we can ask the boundary CBs to prevent the deep ball and play toward preventing Addison from making the big play. Shaq Griffin will start opposite Emerson but Taylor will play on base sets with Griffin.

Edited by RedGold
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Match-up highlights for me:

- Cuba doesn't heavily blitz, but I expect them to have success with either edge who gets heavily featured against Tyler Guyton who is a big liability in pass protection.

- I don't expect either run-game to be highly effective in this match-up and think it gets decided in the air and in the pressure put on the opposing QB.

- Loving Purdy's receiving trio and Engram's return in this match-up - there is an advantage here versus the Cuba secondary (who does at least have the human highlight reel in Xavier McKinney).

- Cuba top 2 receiving weapons are also very strong and can move the ball even against a talented secondary.

- Cuba has the more reliable overall OT play, but also has to face one of the best edge tandems in the entire BDL. Pressure will be had against Rodgers and he isn't as mobile as he used to be to evade.

Prediction - low scoring affair where the running games are not very effective against the opposing defenses, the WRs do get separation for both teams, Ivory Coast pass rush is more consistent and their secondary gets bailed out by an under pressure Rodgers. Ivory Coast 19-17.

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The things I noticed immediately are some of the things IR touched on as well - the concern for Guyton, but also what I like that Purdy can do with his weapons. I'm not in love with either line this weekend tbh, and Rodgers just hasn't had it when he's had to fight for his life sometimes. I am going with IC, but not by much. 

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18 hours ago, InjuredReserve said:

Match-up highlights for me:

- Cuba doesn't heavily blitz, but I expect them to have success with either edge who gets heavily featured against Tyler Guyton who is a big liability in pass protection.

 

5 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

The things I noticed immediately are some of the things IR touched on as well - the concern for Guyton

Guyton was out this week I think. So Steele would get the start

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I think IC roster is performing at a way higher level than Cuba's but I think the plans are more in favour of Cuba. I don't trust ARod throwing it deep to anyone, but leaving two safeties high opens up the running game which Cuba emphasizes on and the Zay underneath stuff. I don't know if Chardonnet has shown enough to be a threat here but Zay certainly is one.

The tipping point for me was: can Cuba provide pass rush to help their zone D. And I feel on the - not really. Gary has been a non-factor this year, LVE as well so it's really Van Ginkel or Uche who's their 4th guy. Taylor in blitzes can be hit or miss because you're leaving additional space to guys like ARSB and Purdy is a good decision maker. 

In the end, I think IC has just more positive plays in them. IC 20 - Cuba 16

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43 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

 

Guyton was out this week I think. So Steele would get the start

Just checked and you were right. Didn't realize he did not go this week. Good catch. Don't like Steele in pass pro either so its just the same negative for me either way (where I gave Cuba credit for keeping the score tight with this pressure).

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1 hour ago, TedLavie said:

I think IC roster is performing at a way higher level than Cuba's but I think the plans are more in favour of Cuba. I don't trust ARod throwing it deep to anyone, but leaving two safeties high opens up the running game which Cuba emphasizes on and the Zay underneath stuff. I don't know if Chardonnet has shown enough to be a threat here but Zay certainly is one.

The tipping point for me was: can Cuba provide pass rush to help their zone D. And I feel on the - not really. Gary has been a non-factor this year, LVE as well so it's really Van Ginkel or Uche who's their 4th guy. Taylor in blitzes can be hit or miss because you're leaving additional space to guys like ARSB and Purdy is a good decision maker. 

In the end, I think IC has just more positive plays in them. IC 20 - Cuba 16

I mean Vander Esch has been out all year so yes he would not be a factor

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I'm feeling weird about this one.

It feels like IC prompted ChatGPT to come up with a vague gameplan using as many coaching cliches as possible. How frequently are they running and passing? I have no idea, but Purdy is going to "take what the defense gives him" while "getting the ball out quickly" to "find the open man". (And I like Cuba's secondary.) On defense, they're going to "secure the tackle first and foremost" and they "won't give up the deep pass", despite keeping only one safety over the top on occasion.

From what I've seen of Rodgers so far this NFL season, I see an experienced, accurate QB stepping into throws with an underwhelming supporting cast. He doesn't have those same concerns in this one: Jefferson, Flowers and Lockett is a dominant trio, and I don't see Purdy keeping up in that sort of shootout.

31-24 Cuba.

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2 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

On defense, they're going to "secure the tackle first and foremost"

You know those plays where the defender punches the ball out with a perfect aim? It's high risk, high reward. Secure the tackle means we're focused on the ballcarrier first, limiting the yards after contact, then the second defender would prioritize going after the ball. Fewer forced fumbles, but trying to limit the yardage. At least that was the intent.

I appreciate the feedback, but I'm disappointed that I get compared to an AI prompt. Maybe my thoughts and words are cliches, but at least they were all typed up by me.

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14 minutes ago, RuskieTitan said:

You know those plays where the defender punches the ball out with a perfect aim? It's high risk, high reward. Secure the tackle means we're focused on the ballcarrier first, limiting the yards after contact, then the second defender would prioritize going after the ball. Fewer forced fumbles, but trying to limit the yardage. At least that was the intent.

I appreciate the feedback, but I'm disappointed that I get compared to an AI prompt. Maybe my thoughts and words are cliches, but at least they were all typed up by me.

Nah, and I hope that my comments didn't come off as being rude or overly critical. As I try to figure this place out, I'm working to understand the balance between articulating a gameplan and wishful thinking. I feel like there's a delicate line between the two.

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