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BDL 2024 Week 7: New Orleans Jazz @ Lancaster Werewolves


Who wins?  

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  1. 1. Who wins?

    • New Orleans Jazz
    • Lancaster Werewolves

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  • Poll closed on 10/24/2024 at 04:01 AM

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BDL 2024 Week  7

Match:  New Orleans Jazz @ Lancaster Werwolves

Away Owner:   @WFLukic

Home Owner:   @rackcs @MikeT14

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

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Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

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New Orleans

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Derrick Henry
WR: D.J Moore
WR: Brian Thomas Jr.
TE: David Njoku
TE: Jake Ferguson
LT: Jake Matthews
LG: Joel Bitonio
OC: Connor McGovern
RG: Mike Onwenu
RT: Rob Havenstein

Bench:

RB2: Josh Jacobs
RB3/WR5: Wan’Dale Robinson
WR3: Michael Wilson
WR4: Allen Robinson
TE3: Juwan Johnson
TE4: Luke Schoonmaker
OL6: Cam Robinson
OL7: John Simpson

Defense:

DE: Za’Darius Smith
DT: Jeffery Simmons
DT: Sheldon Rankins
DE: Arik Armstead
LB: DeMario Davis
LB: CJ Mosley
LB/S: Derwin James
CB: Sauce Gardner
CB: Rasul Douglas
SS: Brandon Jones
FS: Julian Love

Bench:
DE3: Yaya Diaby
DE4: Laiatu Latu
DE5: Preston Smith
INT3: Adam Butler
INT4: Byron Murphy II
LB4: Daiyan Henley
CB3: Stephon Gilmore
CB4: Cam Taylor-Britt

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lancaster

QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs
RB: David Montgomery
WR: Ja’Marr Chase
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE: Tucker Kraft
LT: Ikem Ekwonu
LG: Damien Lewis
C : Creed Humphrey
RG: Sam Cosmi
RT: Jawaan Taylor

 

RB:Audric Estime
FB: Hunter Luepke
WR: Mason Tipton
WR: Dyami Brown
WR: Keon Coleman
TE: Chig Okonkwo
OL: Roger Rosengarten
OL: Cody Whitehair

 

DE: T.J. Watt
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Nnamdi Madubuike
DE: Jared Verse
LB: Fred Warner
LB: Frankie Luvu
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Brandon Stephens
CB: Mike Hilton
FS: Minkah Fitzpatrick
SS: Ji'Ayir Brown

 

DL: Dre’Mont Jones
EDGE: Felix Anudike-Uzomah
INT: Tedarrell Slaton
LB: Willie Gay Jr.
CB: Kool-Aid McKinstry
CB: Caelen Carson
S: Vonn Bell
S: Quandre Diggs

Edited by RedGold
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New Orleans

Offense:

45% - 2WR 2 TE 1 RB

40% - 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB

7.5% - 4 WR 1 RB

7.5% - 1 WR 2 TE 2 RB
 

2TE Formation:

With the addition of David Njoku, we’re now moving to a much greater share of 2TE formations and embracing our identity as a run first team. We’ll see approximately half our snaps featuring 2 TEs, with the majority of those with 2 WRs and 1 RB, however for a handful of snaps we’ll feature 2 players lined up in the backfield, including Wan’Dale Robinson who will be motioned or used as a receiver on the occasions he is in the backfield.

Although we are looking at this with the primary goal of getting heavier on offense and improving the running, the importance of the extra TE can’t be understanded in the passing game, with it being a necessity to give TJ Watt some extra attention given his excellence as a pass-rusher. On passing downs in the 2 TE set, we’ll be able to ensure that our tackle facing Watt will have that support, even if it’s no more than them chipping him and continuing on with a route. 

Running Game:

Plan is for Henry to get the vast majority of carries, ideally as many as 25-30 based on how well we’re moving the ball. Allen will get short-yardage work in the tush push formation, while Jacobs will handle 3rd and long situations and occasionally get a carry to spell Henry.

Passing Game:

As usual, Moore will operate as our number 1 with a full route tree, while BTJ as our no.2 will be deployed in a way which maximises his speed, either on deeper crossing routes or down-field to force the safeties back. If we notice any sustained periods of Lancaster using zone coverage, we’ll look to move 3 WR and bring in Wilson who will operate as our zone splitting specialist from the slot. 

We’re also going to throw in a fair bit of play-action once we’ve established the run to help keep Watt and Madubuike at bay and let Allen roll out of the pocket where he can do his best work improvising.

Lastly, we want to get Henry involved in the screen game. We assume Lancaster will be focused on getting beyond the line of scrimmage to stuff Henry in the run game or to put pressure on Allen, so our formations with Allen and Henry in the backfield and the 2 TEs on the field will signal run and a perfect opportunity to catch Lancaster off-guard with screens to Henry in space.

 

Defense:

Stop the run: Lancaster has a great RB duo and one of the better running backs in the league, so their formula for victory will involve trying to establish dominance in the ground game early and then grinding out a result. To best counter this, we’re going to focus on two things, being:

  1. A heavier defensive front - With the return of some interior DL depth, we’re lucky enough to move Arik Armstead out on the edge to go with Za’Darius Smith on the other edge, giving us a large duo capable of holding their ground and setting the edge in the run game. We’re also going with 3 linebackers, as we move Derwin James forward into a hybrid role of sorts closer to the LOS while Brandon Jones takes strong safety duties.
     

  2. Heavy rotation on the DL - We’ve named 5 defensive linemen on our bench, and our plan is to rotate between them all heavily to ensure no-one is playing any more than 60-65% of the snaps. In what will likely be a physical match up in trenches, we want our guys to be able to go full-throttle every snap to give us any edge possible.

Coverage:

We’re reverting to our usual Cover 1 man coverage, with Julian Love operating as the deep safety. We want to contribute more player to the LOS and ensure that the run game or short passing game aren’t able to keep the ball moving for Lancaster. 

In terms of coverage, it will be as follows:

Jamarr Chase - Sauce Gardner

Keon Coleman / WR2 - Rasul Douglas

TE - Brandon Jones 

Jahmyr Gibbs - Derwin James

David Montgomery - CJ Mosley

DeMario Davis will be tasked with spying on Hurts and patrolling any passes near the LOS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lancaster Offense:

R/P and Formations expectations:

45% Pass to 55% run (35-40% inside to 60-65% outside)

20 pers - 5%

21 pers - 35%

22 pers - 10%

11 pers - 25%

12 pers - 20%

10 pers - 5%

*****

Gibbs - 70%/Montgomery 70%/Luepke/Estime (he had 2 carries for 13 yards last week - please note that 6.5 YPC) spot remaining

*****

THIS IS OUR WOLVES, THIS IS OUR PACK, WE HUNT WITH THE MOON

THIS IS OUR PACK, WHETHER HOWL OR BITE, WE STAND AS ONE

GO WOLVES, BEAT THE JAZZ, GET MORE BEADS THAN THEM

THIS IS OUR PACK, GO WOLVES! (HOWWWWWWWWWWWL)

Reverting back to even more GROUND AND POUND. I think our o-line is getting undersold a little - the interior is strong. The outside is fine - Ikem has improved this year, and Taylor does his job when he’s not drawing penalties. We’re going to lean heavily into 11 and 21 personnel utilizing our 2 headed monster of Gibbs and Montgomery to continue to eat yards, eat clock, and eat poutine. Look for heavy I and Pistol formations where Hurts has seen success in the past. 

This will open up a lot of playaction for us, hoping to catch the defense biting run. I’d like to utilize this on 1st down some, as I would expect heavy play against the run on 1st downs. If the WRs aren’t open off the fake, Kraft/ Luepke/the RB become options off the delay. Hurts also always has the option to run from PA/RPO situations. Getting him moving right away into bootlegs will help with that. 

In two-wide receiver formations, expect to see Chase out there with JuJu the majority of the time. You will find Coleman and Tipton rotating in that 2nd WR position at times. Coleman and Tipton are the first up for 3 WRs sets. Tipton is a new addition looking for underneath plays and a shot deep/over the top if we catch New Orleans napping as they play our run game. 

I don’t know if New Orleans will do matchups on CB to WR, but I do expect to see more of the French Cover 2 they’ve been running. Derwin will probably play more box though as well watching Kraft and the RBs. They will comment about how they aren’t worried about our WRs and want to keep things in front of them. We can deal with that. This offense this week is about taking what is given to us, taking our time, making no mistakes, getting the points as they come, and playing field position letting our dominating defense do their work against a tough duo of Allen and Henry. 

There is room to wear down their linebackers this week. Getting to that 2nd level with the RBs and TEs will be paramount to the plan, especially if they are sticking with “keeping things in front of them.”

In short:

-Dominate TOP

-Establish play action and Hurts moving to counter aggressiveness from runs 

-Work on attacking their LBs

-If necessary, play field position and let defense cook

 

Lancaster Defense:

New Orleans has built up a formidable offense but our defense is up for the task of slowing them down. The New Orleans offense is well designed to run the ball and pass deep so those will be our focuses for stopping them. Our main focal point will be Derrick Henry as we don't want to let him control the tempo of the game and bully the defense. We'll have an extra body in the box today with safety Ji'Ayir Brown coming down. We'll have a usual mix of zone and man coverage, about 65-35 zone to man. 

In our zone coverage looks we'll utilize mostly cover 3 with the outside corners and Minkah taking the deep zones, Brown and Warner taking middle zones, and Luvu and Hilton taking zones the flats. We want Brown as an extra body in the box and we want to have bodies in the flats to help against the run so we can be ready to stop any runs to the outside. This coverage will allow us to have bodies up against the run while also protecting us from deep shots, where New Orleans’ receivers excel. We're putting a lot of pressure on Fred Warner in the middle of the field, we want to really give him freedom and have him cover a wide range over the middle. We trust that he's the caliber of player who can handle this extra responsibility. Brown is playing a zone in that area as well and should help. 

We'll also mix in some some other zone coverages throughout the game, mainly some cover 4 zones if we get them into late and long down and distances situations where they're obviously going to pass. When we do man coverage looks it'll be a lot of 2 high safety stuff to protect against the downfield passing ability of Josh Allen and his receivers. In the man scenarios, Ramsey will take Brian Thomas Jr., Stephens will take DJ Moore, Mike Hilton will take Wilson, Luvu will take Derrick Henry, and Warner will take Ferguson.

Our chief concern this week is not letting Derrick Henry bully us and wear down our defense and the clock. We want our front seven to focus on maintaining their gaps and shutting down running lanes when it's not an obvious pass rush situation. We do think it'll be possible to get some pressure on Allen just rushing four even with a focus on the run as we think our front four is talented enough to get wins against the Jazz OL. We want to stop the run on early down and force the Jazz into 3rd and long situations where we can dial up the pressure, get creative, and hopefully force Allen into making a few poor throws that our secondary can capitalize on. If we can stop the run, stall some drives, and hopefully get a few timely turnovers, we can give our team a chance to win the game.

Edited by RedGold
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11 hours ago, RedGold said:

THIS IS OUR WOLVES, THIS IS OUR PACK, WE HUNT WITH THE MOON

THIS IS OUR PACK, WHETHER HOWL OR BITE, WE STAND AS ONE

GO WOLVES, BEAT THE JAZZ, GET MORE BEADS THAN THEM

THIS IS OUR PACK, GO WOLVES! (HOWWWWWWWWWWWL)

Frank Sinatra GIF by Eternal Family

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Key Points:

Lancaster was thinking Nola would allow them the short dink and dunk stuff, while NOLA actually wants to focus on taking it away. NOLA has a good strategy to keep players fresh with their Dline depth and no mention of uptempo or hurry up from Lancaster will allow them substitutions to ensure they can do so. They match the 2 RB formation pretty well with their base defense. I think the Lancaster defense could have gone a bit heavier against the NOLA 12 personnel instead of just being in nickel and bringing Brown down. In concept they have it dialed up right of how to attack and what to defend of NOLA but I don’t see the personnel necessarily matching that as effectively as they would want. I know he was just acquired but I don’t recall seeing any mention of defending Njoku when the assignments were mentioned and again not that big of a deal as not every assignment ever is mentioned all the time but I have to assume against 12 that Hilton would have Njoku? The Sauce and Chase matchup should be fun in this one. Juju obviously got hurt but would have been a lucky guess that would happen and to start Coleman but the inconsistency of course they would go for the hot hand in Juju. At least they are still using Coleman. The Lancaster 21 is one of the most fun offenses in this league and those running backs are churning. Also I do agree with Mike I think we may be underrating their oline a bit. They will deliver quite a bit in this one as will NOLA with Henry. If you love running the ball this would be the game for you this week. In the end I am going with NOLA on the road 24-20. Hurts showed some improvement this week and Lancaster is close I just think NOLA can have their way a bit more than the other way around based on plan and personnel as previously mentioned. 

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On 10/21/2024 at 5:48 AM, Scoundrel said:

canadian cheese GIF by Rachael Ray Show

Pretty clear Lancaster either prepared for the wrong opponent or have an extremely dubious sense of culinary geography. When your owner is married to someone from French origin, you should be able to distinguish poutine and beignets.

Have to go New Orleans

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7 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Man, that New Orleans offense. Allen is playing well. Henry went off - again. Tough roster to beat, and nothing in the gameplans made me think the outcome would change. 28-21 New Orleans.

I'm with TL here and have to vote Nola. A good Lancaster squad keeps running a terrible gauntlet, that is only made worse by Josh Allen having not only Derrick Henry going right now, but also the emerging deep threat in Brian Thomas Jr.

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**Winner: Lancaster (24-21)**

**Summary:** Lancaster's balanced offensive attack, led by Jalen Hurts, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Ja'Marr Chase, will control the game with their ability to dominate the time of possession. Their commitment to the run game, utilizing both inside and outside runs, will wear down New Orleans' defense despite a solid front featuring Arik Armstead and Za'Darius Smith. On defense, Lancaster's focus on stopping Derrick Henry with an extra safety in the box, while leveraging Fred Warner's versatility, will limit New Orleans' ability to control the clock and hit big plays. 

Meanwhile, New Orleans' offense, powered by Josh Allen and Derrick Henry, will find some success, especially in play-action and screens to Henry, but Lancaster's defense, with key players like T.J. Watt and Jalen Ramsey, will create pressure and force New Orleans into a couple of critical mistakes. Lancaster’s ability to create defensive stops in key moments will be the deciding factor in a close, hard-fought game.

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New Orleans defensive line getting healthier in time to shut down the Lancaster run game, and I think the decision to emphasize the run on the other side of the ball was a great decision given how Henry is playing.

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20 hours ago, TedLavie said:

Pretty clear Lancaster either prepared for the wrong opponent or have an extremely dubious sense of culinary geography. When your owner is married to someone from French origin, you should be able to distinguish poutine and beignets.

Have to go New Orleans

100%. Started to, went back, thought I edited everything out and then switched some stuff up and didn't catch everything. Got a head start though!

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Going with a surprising large Lancaster victory here. Frankly I think their DL dominates what I feel like is an aging NOLA OL - limiting Henry and forcing Allen to a couple of key turnovers. NO plan on defense is pretty sound but I still think matchup wise Lancaster will get more opportunities to move the ball, on the ground and through the air.

Lancaster 26 - NOLA 15

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