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Should the Niners Pay Brock Purdy?


Chiefer

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Rumors are the 60 million+ range. And I get it Silicon Valley prices you gotta make that much just to live out there. But that seems a little excessive? But he’s next in line and been to a SB, how can you say no? 

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Definitely not in the coming offseason barring a massive turnaround. Trajectory matters. System matters.

He's had a really down year and there's reason to believe that he's in large part just a product of what's around him and the system that he's in where many quarterbacks can find success. Sure you can point to the spot start Brandon Allen just got, but... it's still Brandon Allen.

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Yes? 
What's the 49ers alternative?
Draft a QB in the teens and hope he works out?

You wanna buy low this off-season with like a 50-million ish deal and lock him in for 2-3 years. If he sucks oh well any other option is literally worse.

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3 hours ago, Chiefer said:

Rumors are the 60 million+ range. And I get it Silicon Valley prices you gotta make that much just to live out there. But that seems a little excessive? But he’s next in line and been to a SB, how can you say no? 

You don't. And they won't. 

Teams don't walk away from above average - good QBs. They won't walk away from average ones if they can help it. 

I don't think he'll get 60. I think he'll get about 57 / 58.

Also, and this is important for the sticker shock....60 million aav on projected next year cap would have him  #10 in aav % of cap in the year it was signed. On a 273 million cap limit, 60 million is 21.98% which would sandwich him between Deshaun Watson (22.09%) and Jordan Love / Trevor Lawrence from last year (21.53%). Tua is next at 20.79%. 

So 60 million, if he got it (again, don't think he will) is perfectly in line with the deals that have been given out. 

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22 minutes ago, Forge said:

You don't. And they won't. 

Teams don't walk away from above average - good QBs. They won't walk away from average ones if they can help it. 

I don't think he'll get 60. I think he'll get about 57 / 58.

Also, and this is important for the sticker shock....60 million aav on projected next year cap would have him in #10 of aav % of cap in the year it was signed. On a 273 million cap limit, 60 million is 21.98% which would sandwich him between Deshaun Watson (22.09%) and Jordan Love / Trevor Lawrence from last year (21.53%). Tua is next at 20.79%. 

So 60 million, if he got it (again, don't think he will) is perfectly in line with the deals that have been given out. 

This is what people don't seem to realize or grasp the concept? They need to get over the sticker shock of a specific number. 

With the ever rising cap number. Team are not paying that much more % wise now, then they were for Payton Manning as a Colt QB from that Era.

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2 hours ago, Danger said:

Definitely not in the coming offseason barring a massive turnaround. Trajectory matters. System matters.

He's had a really down year and there's reason to believe that he's in large part just a product of what's around him and the system that he's in where many quarterbacks can find success. Sure you can point to the spot start Brandon Allen just got, but... it's still Brandon Allen.

He's been mostly fine this year and I have more problems with Purdy than most 49er fans.  There's  like 0 reason people should be looking at him this year and not giving him some credit. Deebo has cratered, aiyuk and cmc have missed most of the year (and both rather pedestrian when playing), his receivers are like last in target separation against (they have one player above league average separation on man coverage and it's Kittle), and he's 26th in yards after catch while throwing the fewest percentage of his passes behind the line (and it's not even close - he's at 6.9% and the second lowest is over 9%) and getting the 6th fewest play action drop backs (min 200 drop backs).  The system isn't helping him. The offensive players surrounding him haven't been great besides Kittle. Running game? Mason and CMC both under the league average success rate. Mason was awesome (very high in rushing yards over expected) but the running game hasn't been consistent (probably because of the line and Mason was doing a lot of the work for that y/a).

Now, Purdy has regressed as well (inevitable given last year's number), but everyone wanted to see him when not surrounded by the "Avengers" and not being helped by the system and they got it and they aren't acknowledging it for some reason? And even with those problems, Purdy is largely just fine. Certainly no worse than others who have gotten paid. 

6/7 in epa per dropback (depending on source, though I don't have all epa numbers like trumedia either), 3rd in adjusted EPA (Ben Baldwin's metric where he normalizes variables), 9th in success rate  (4th in Ben Baldwin's figures, so am assuming that he's excluding garbage time), 10 in pff grade, 4th in yards per completion, 5th in yards per attempt, 5th in QBR, 6th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 9th in sack to pressure rate, 6th in completion percentage over expected (per NGS - Baldwin has him 14th, I think, which again, I think is excluding garbage time)   

I'm not sure what the standard is for getting an extension from teams, but he's met it. And I've made myself very clear over the years....I hate paying QBs of this tier, but there's zero reason to be holding him to a different standard for some reason. 

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Brock Purdy's down year from a high level, is very comparable statically to Trevor Lawrence's career best year (2022) imo. (not just trying to hate as always, but he's most recent paid)

Lawrence: 9-8wl  66.3%cmp  4404totYards  30td 17to  95.2rtg
Purdy (2024 Per 17 Pace): 5-5wl  66.0%cmp  4996totYards  29td 17to  95.9rtg

I know it's not been what you hoped, but I don't know that Purdy has been egregiously bad statistically this year. And if this is his floor, I think you are optimistic.

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1 minute ago, General Tso said:

If a team picking top 5 was willing to trade their first round pick for him, I might just have the cajones to trade him and draft his replacement.

Like currently Vegas has 100M in cap space next year. Why not trade for the proven commodity?

He'd crumble in Vegas. We're a long ways from competing and likely looking at a full tear down and rebuild.

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There is one caveat I will add.....

As a fan who doesn't have the medical information....I'm extremely concerned about the arm. 

Obviously he had the UCL issue. Two weeks ago, he started getting elbow fatigue. Now he's got a shoulder injury (rumor is it's like an AC joint or a labrum issue....I think it could be a similar situation to what Mayfield played through his last year in Cleveland or Trubisky had one year in Chicago, but can't say for sure, obviously). But the niners are being somewhat sketchy and vague about this injury and he's already had 2 MRIs in the last 2 weeks now. 

Unfortunately, its impossible to read into something like putting him on injured reserve. If they put him on IR, they could just be doing it because the season is lost and there's no real reason to subject his shoulder to more punishment. But if he has a serious injury on that shoulder, they absolutely have to give consideration to going in another direction or changing something up. 2 serious injuries in 2.5 years after you just came off the 5 wonderful years of the Jimmy injury roller coaster? And it's not like Brock is a physical marvel as it is. 

So obviously we'll never truly know the extent of what is going on, but if there's another legit injury to his throwing arm, you do have to give serious consideration to hitting the eject button, even if you don't have a great idea on how you're going to pivot. 

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3 minutes ago, riceman80 said:

He'd crumble in Vegas. We're a long ways from competing and likely looking at a full tear down and rebuild.

Eh I do think there are pieces there already and you'll still have picks + extra cap space. It can turn around faster than you think. Or at worst it takes 1 year like with Goff and the Lions before you starting really winning.

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2 hours ago, game3525 said:

No

One of these teams have to man up and just say no. 

The problem is they say no and then someone else is going to just say yes and throw him the massive bag. You just kinda have to pay QBs unless you have an obvious plan like a young guy in the wings. 
 

15 minutes ago, General Tso said:

If a team picking top 5 was willing to trade their first round pick for him, I might just have the cajones to trade him and draft his replacement.

Like currently Vegas has 100M in cap space next year. Why not trade for the proven commodity?

After the Lance ordeal I sincerely doubt the Niners are in love with the idea of a blockbuster trade to draft another QB. That might legit be the one thing that could get the Lynch/Shanny duo fired. 

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