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Does where you pick in the draft matter?


Burnett42

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My friends seem to believe that it doesn't matter where you draft? They seem to believe there is just as good of chance you hit on pick 20 as there is pick 12. I agree that any pick can bust but the higher the pick should at least mean if pick 20 and pick 12 hit, that pick 12 should have a higher ceiling or at least a lower floor.

Like if we lose we can get anywhere from pick 12-15, does it matter or not?

I know there are smart people in here that can prove this somehow, whether its just the number of 1st round picks in the league compared to 2nds and so on or something?

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It doesn't matter at all.  Explain Richard Sherman, okay?  Explain Tom Brady, how about it?  Explain why Alex Smith was the first and Aaron Rodgers was 24th or something, you know?  If where you picked in the draft matters, how do you explain Tom Brady?  Antonio Brown?  Rob Gronkowski.  Ted Thompson sucks because he's only found ONE greatest player at his position of all time, and it took 23 teams passing on him for that to happen. 

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Just now, Burnett42 said:

But is there more WRs drafted with early picks that are great than the number that are picked later like Brown? That would still mean it matters

WR actually doesn't matter as far as where you draft.  Teams are overvaluing speed and physical attributes at the WR position instead of actually scouting a receiver's ability to play.  This has especially been true the past several years.  Cooper Kupp has more receiving yards, receptions and touchdowns than all of the first round receivers combined.

It's why you're finding players like Diggs and Brown in the 5th/6th rounds.  The rule changes after that one Peyton Manning loss to the Patriots has made the receiver position significantly less important than it was, and every new rule that goes in favor of the passing game makes physical attributes less valuable at the WR position. 

2nd-7th round receivers in today's NFL give you better franchise-building value than 1st round receivers. 

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10 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

It doesn't matter at all.  Explain Richard Sherman, okay?  Explain Tom Brady, how about it?  Explain why Alex Smith was the first and Aaron Rodgers was 24th or something, you know?  If where you picked in the draft matters, how do you explain Tom Brady?  Antonio Brown?  Rob Gronkowski.  Ted Thompson sucks because he's only found ONE greatest player at his position of all time, and it took 23 teams passing on him for that to happen. 

downvote. dislike. no

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8 minutes ago, Burnett42 said:

No idea who that is lol. But what about DT, How many Suh or Donald type tallents are drafted outside of the first round compared to the first round.

Not many. I totally agree that continually drafting in the bottom 10 of the rounds has a substantial impact, in the first 2 rounds anyway. 

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35 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

It doesn't matter at all.  Explain Richard Sherman, okay?  Explain Tom Brady, how about it?  Explain why Alex Smith was the first and Aaron Rodgers was 24th or something, you know?  If where you picked in the draft matters, how do you explain Tom Brady?  Antonio Brown?  Rob Gronkowski.  Ted Thompson sucks because he's only found ONE greatest player at his position of all time, and it took 23 teams passing on him for that to happen. 

Textbook strawman. Nobody said it doesn't matter at all.

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4 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

... in the first 2 rounds anyway. 

Draft position matters in every round.

Try this exercise. Call up a GM who has the top pick of the 5th round and ask him if he'd swap straight up for your pick at # 25 in the 5th round

Then let us know what he says....:)

 

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Just now, Shanedorf said:
21 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

... in the first 2 rounds anyway. 

Draft position matters in every round.

Try this exercise. Call up a GM who has the top pick of the 5th round and ask him if he'd swap straight up for your pick at # 25 in the 5th round

Then let us know what he says....:)

I still don't agree too much with that. Someone being drafted in the 5th usually has a 4th-UDFA grade. At that point, you take the guy who slid with flags, or you take a player you like. IMO.

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