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Does where you pick in the draft matter?


Burnett42

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39 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

i'm intrigued by the apparent bump at the top of the 2nd vs bottom of the 1st.

Good teams trade their late 1sts for early 2nds, then it falls back down around 40 where most teams consider that too great of a fall to move out of round 1 and you're back to bad teams picking again.

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The whole point of the drafting process is not about picking the very best player who is still on the board.  The team with the most drafting success will not necessarily be the team who gets the best players in a given draft, but the team who gets the most value from a given draft.  It should be obvious that drafting early will give you best odds at drafting the best player.  Just as obvious: if there are five or six players available when it's your turn to pick, you will not be getting the most value if you make a pick from those five or six players.  You will need to trade down in order to get the most value from your pick.  

You get the most value when you draft the player you want as late as possible.  You get the least value when you draft the player too early.  Understanding value and knowing how to maneuver within the draft order is what makes or breaks a team's drafting, not whether the team gets the very best player in a draft class.

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2 hours ago, Packer_ESP said:

 

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

i'm intrigued by the apparent bump at the top of the 2nd vs bottom of the 1st.

Wouldn't that largely be factored by the state of the teams drafting? NE at 32 is more than likely taking a depth piece. Cleveland at 33 is taking a starter. Production factors into the graph, or am I missing something

 

Exactly right.  Going to a better team makes finding playing time a bit tougher

Being drafted by a crappy team, someone has to start and those rookies are often thrust into play.  It positively affects their relative production.

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3 hours ago, Shanedorf said:

Draft position matters in every round.

Try this exercise. Call up a GM who has the top pick of the 5th round and ask him if he'd swap straight up for your pick at # 25 in the 5th round

Then let us know what he says....:)

 

Matters every round, but thie difference is far bigger in the first 2. Look at the chart incog posted. After round 2, the fit curve is close to linear, but is bot mush steeper and much further from linear in the first two rounds. S/N ratio is also much higher in the first 2 rounds.

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Just now, Cakeshoppe said:

Matters every round, but thie difference is far bigger in the first 2. Look at the chart incog posted. After round 2, the fit curve is close to linear, but is bot mush steeper and much further from linear in the first two rounds. S/N ratio is also much higher in the first 2 rounds.

The argument isn't how much of a difference is it, it's a question of whether or not there is a distance.  Once we all agree that picking later is disadvantageous, we can move onto the next discussion.

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19 hours ago, HorizontoZenith said:

It doesn't matter at all.  Explain Richard Sherman, okay?  Explain Tom Brady, how about it?  Explain why Alex Smith was the first and Aaron Rodgers was 24th or something, you know?  If where you picked in the draft matters, how do you explain Tom Brady?  Antonio Brown?  Rob Gronkowski.  Ted Thompson sucks because he's only found ONE greatest player at his position of all time, and it took 23 teams passing on him for that to happen. 

I can't tell if you are being factious or not...

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