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With the 5th pick in the NFL draft the Broncos select....


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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

I don't think I've ever said that. Our QB's sorta suck.

I just don't want to reach for a QB hoping you can cure his flaws when so many other players, Nelson for 1, can step in the first day and contribute at a very high level.

I don't want to spend $25-30 million a year on one either.

I get what he's saying we've gotten into the most trouble pressing for a selection.

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1 hour ago, germ-x said:

I do not disagree with that.  At #5 Denver has to get the pick right.  But, if they believe there is a franchise QB in this draft it has to be the pick.

An OG has never carried a team to a SB.  Steve Hutchinson hell Joe Thomas as well are some of the best offensive lineman in history, but when push comes to shove they don’t drastically move the needle when it comes to wins/losses.

If a guy like Nelson or Williams is the BPA at #5 I have no issue taking them, but damn that’s a crap year to end up with a top 5 pick.

It's not that simple what if denver at 5 sees a qb with a 50 50 shot to be a franchise qb, or another player at a 90% chance to be a franchise player then what do you do?

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4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

It's not that simple what if denver at 5 sees a qb with a 50 50 shot to be a franchise qb, or another player at a 90% chance to be a franchise player then what do you do?

I think it is that simple.  Either they have the traits to be a franchise caliber QB or they don’t.

At #5 you aren’t taking projects.  The player either shows the capabilities or u pass.

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8 hours ago, germ-x said:

I think it is that simple.  Either they have the traits to be a franchise caliber QB or they don’t.

At #5 you aren’t taking projects.  The player either shows the capabilities or u pass.

The issue is that teams often squint hard enough after the top of the board is done (literally the 1-2 pick or the top qb overall in a weak class) and they convince themselves the QB there is that guy.   When the evaluation is driven more by need than more objective evaluation.   Need makes them see something others don’t see and that’s not really there.     

If we count Watson and Flacco that’s literally the only 2 outside the above description in Rd 1 that have succeeded who weren’t the 1-2 overall consensus guy or the top qb (and still a fair number there fail).   And it can be strongly argued that Flacco has actually been below average in his career except for a huge SB run.  

The above #’s are worrisome by itself but then you add the eye test that so few QB in college are consistently being asked to do what is required in the NFL to succeed and then there’s an explanation that fits the #’s too.  

If you aren’t judged consistently and repeatedly to be a top of the draft pick at QB or the 1 guy in a weaker qb class other than Watson the results are downright scary.   When you have franchise caliber nonQB talents available I get the argument completely.   

 

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Elway has shown a penchant for drafting for need. This should scare all of us. Because that is how the reaches happen and you can't do that with a top five pick. The top five in the 2016 draft may be the best since 2011. Hopefully this draft class can produce us a player at five as good as these number five picks. 

2013- Ezekial Ansah

2014- Khalil Mack

2015- Brandon Scherff

2016- Jalen Ramsey

That is a pretty impressive four year stretch. Don't take a receiver at 5 (Justin Blackmon 2012, Corey Davis 2017)

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1 hour ago, Counselor said:

Elway has shown a penchant for drafting for need. This should scare all of us. Because that is how the reaches happen and you can't do that with a top five pick. The top five in the 2016 draft may be the best since 2011. Hopefully this draft class can produce us a player at five as good as these number five picks. 

2013- Ezekial Ansah

2014- Khalil Mack

2015- Brandon Scherff

2016- Jalen Ramsey

That is a pretty impressive four year stretch. Don't take a receiver at 5 (Justin Blackmon 2012, Corey Davis 2017)

To be fair, Elway did not always pick based on need, his early drafts say otherwise. It's when we became a contender, he slowly started to force picks imo.

 

But you are certainly right about hitting that #5 pick, barring a trade up/down.

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1 hour ago, Counselor said:

Elway has shown a penchant for drafting for need. This should scare all of us. Because that is how the reaches happen and you can't do that with a top five pick. The top five in the 2016 draft may be the best since 2011. Hopefully this draft class can produce us a player at five as good as these number five picks. 

2013- Ezekial Ansah

2014- Khalil Mack

2015- Brandon Scherff

2016- Jalen Ramsey

That is a pretty impressive four year stretch. Don't take a receiver at 5 (Justin Blackmon 2012, Corey Davis 2017)

Way too early to say anything about Corey Davis, who was injured most of the year, and played in a completely neutered offense.

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I think we need to drastically improve our OL, but in no way can I justify using #5 on Quenton Nelson. We need people that make game changing plays. That's our biggest deficiency. And in the top 5 of this draft, you have three talents that fit that role (I sound like a parrot at this point, but I will keep repeating it): Darnold, Rosen and Barkley. If we cant get one of them at #5, we absolutely have to trade down.

Honestly, if you can get a HOF OG at #5 (Nelson) or a perennial pro-bowler at #40 (Hernandez), I think the value, taking position into account, is at #40. IF you change the prior statement to QB, you take the guy at #5.

If the big 3 are gone, you trade down (BUF for their two R1's and 2019 R2?)

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16 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think we need to drastically improve our OL, but in no way can I justify using #5 on Quenton Nelson. We need people that make game changing plays. That's our biggest deficiency. And in the top 5 of this draft, you have three talents that fit that role (I sound like a parrot at this point, but I will keep repeating it): Darnold, Rosen and Barkley. If we cant get one of them at #5, we absolutely have to trade down.

Honestly, if you can get a HOF OG at #5 (Nelson) or a perennial pro-bowler at #40 (Hernandez), I think the value, taking position into account, is at #40. IF you change the prior statement to QB, you take the guy at #5.

If the big 3 are gone, you trade down (BUF for their two R1's and 2019 R2?)

That would be awesome and ideal if those big 3 are gone. I don't think it'll happen tbh but good idea though.

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23 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think we need to drastically improve our OL, but in no way can I justify using #5 on Quenton Nelson. We need people that make game changing plays. That's our biggest deficiency. And in the top 5 of this draft, you have three talents that fit that role (I sound like a parrot at this point, but I will keep repeating it): Darnold, Rosen and Barkley. If we cant get one of them at #5, we absolutely have to trade down.

Honestly, if you can get a HOF OG at #5 (Nelson) or a perennial pro-bowler at #40 (Hernandez), I think the value, taking position into account, is at #40. IF you change the prior statement to QB, you take the guy at #5.

If the big 3 are gone, you trade down (BUF for their two R1's and 2019 R2?)

Said the same thing a few pages back more or less. I like Nelson a lot. But you don't necessarily need to take him at 5. I would love to strengthen the OL, but we also need tackles. If the QBs are gone, and someone is wanting to move to 5 for a particular player, I think a trade back makes a lot of sense. Accumulate some draft capital and still get an impact player. Hell, Nelson will probably be there around 10 just given where guards typically go in the draft.

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27 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

I think we need to drastically improve our OL, but in no way can I justify using #5 on Quenton Nelson. We need people that make game changing plays. That's our biggest deficiency. And in the top 5 of this draft, you have three talents that fit that role (I sound like a parrot at this point, but I will keep repeating it): Darnold, Rosen and Barkley. If we cant get one of them at #5, we absolutely have to trade down.

Honestly, if you can get a HOF OG at #5 (Nelson) or a perennial pro-bowler at #40 (Hernandez), I think the value, taking position into account, is at #40. IF you change the prior statement to QB, you take the guy at #5.

If the big 3 are gone, you trade down (BUF for their two R1's and 2019 R2?)

Actually I think our biggest deficiency is moving the chains. We must be at or near the bottom of the league in 3 and outs and 3rd down conversion rates.

Game changing plays are fine but I prefer 12 play, 7 minute, 80 yard drives.

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7 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

 

Said the same thing a few pages back more or less. I like Nelson a lot. But you don't necessarily need to take him at 5. I would love to strengthen the OL, but we also need tackles. If the QBs are gone, and someone is wanting to move to 5 for a particular player, I think a trade back makes a lot of sense. Accumulate some draft capital and still get an impact player. Hell, Nelson will probably be there around 10 just given where guards typically go in the draft.

I'm all for trading back if we find a willing partner and we should be able to. I think 5 is just a poor spot for us outside of draft value. That's an area usually reserved for skill positions and pass rushers. Franchise level Meat and potatoes guys are more 10-20.

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

Actually I think our biggest deficiency is moving the chains. We must be at or near the bottom of the league in 3 and outs and 3rd down conversion rates.

Game changing plays are fine but I prefer 12 play, 7 minute, 80 yard drives.

That's fair, and I actually agree, but even deficient teams have a playmaker somewhere. Our offense just feels slow and stagnant. Barkley is a playmaker to the nth degree. He would be perfect but I'm not sure we'll actually be able to make it happen given all the other question marks.

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46 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

That's fair, and I actually agree, but even deficient teams have a playmaker somewhere. Our offense just feels slow and stagnant. Barkley is a playmaker to the nth degree. He would be perfect but I'm not sure we'll actually be able to make it happen given all the other question marks.

I love Barkley but if you knew you could get Sony Michel at 2.40 and you could trade back to get Nelson later and more talent I’d do that as we need talent across the board badly.  Or Rashad Penny Rd 3.   Especially since RB shelf life is so short.    

If we stand pat at 1.5 I love Nelson and I don’t mind if we stay but I do agree there’s an opp to improve value with Nelson we could capitalize on.  

FWIW I’m not even sure Barkley makes it to 1.5.   I think Fitzpatrick to CLE at 1.4 is a lock but no idea who IND takes he’s a potential fit there.  

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