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What QB Do We Want Going Into 2018?


joru1000

If It's One or the Other, Which QB Do You Want Going in to 2018?  

98 members have voted

  1. 1. Case or Teddy?



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6 minutes ago, JDBrocks said:

I don't think it is at all reasonable to assume that any of these players are going to accept a 1 year deal. Also it isn't an easy decision if you don't believe that Keemun will ever play this well again.

Each player could be tagged at the same contract number on a 1 year deal. Yes, omg!

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Omg what? It's much easier to attempt a reasonable discussion with you when you use full sentences and explain how you arrived at your conclusion.

Why should anyone assume that the Vikings are going to tag any of them if they can work out a medium length deal that is mutually beneficial with the one they want? I think the Vikings will try everything that they can to avoid using the franchise tag.

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13 minutes ago, vikingsrule said:

I agree. All things being equal, have to take Keenum. I can only see an argument for Teddy if he comes with significantly less pay.

Can someone explain why?

Teddy wipes the floor with Keenum statistically pre-2017.

He was 13th in QBR and PFF in 2015, had a league best adjust comp%, maintained that accuracy under pressure, flashed his potential when an offense was run through him (was statically the league's best passer the last 4 or so games in 2014 across the board).  All of this when he was the highest pressured QB in 2015 with a similar story in 14', receivers were mediocre at best and Norv would only begrudgingly adjust his offense to fit TB and qpuld still regress to his patented 7 step drop back insanity, despite Teddys success is a more rhythm based intermediate offense.

 

Keenum was historically bad in QBR and below average in PFF, and has been a worse deep passer than Teddy (even this year), with a 6.5 ypa compared to Teddys career average of 7.2

 

Things Teddy needs to improve on are comparable to Keenum, yet with more positive traits...pretty much across the board.

 

 

 

Yet here we are with some Vikings fans literally thinking Case is worth a 25+M gamble.............I just....I don't get it

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4 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Can someone explain why?

Teddy wipes the floor with Keenum statistically pre-2017.

He was 13th in QBR and PFF in 2015, had a league best adjust comp%, maintained that accuracy under pressure, flashed his potential when an offense was run through him (was statically the league's best passer the last 4 or so games in 2014 across the board).  All of this when he was the highest pressured QB in 2015 with a similar story in 14', receivers were mediocre at best and Norv would only begrudgingly adjust his offense to fit TB and qpuld still regress to his patented 7 step drop back insanity, despite Teddys success is a more rhythm based intermediate offense.

 

Keenum was historically bad in QBR and below average in PFF, and has been a worse deep passer than Teddy (even this year), with a 6.5 ypa compared to Teddys career average of 7.2

 

Things Teddy needs to improve on are comparable to Keenum, yet with more positive traits...pretty much across the board.

 

 

 

Yet here we are with some Vikings fans literally thinking Case is worth a 25+M gamble.............I just....I don't get it

LOL, So the first thing you bring up is Teddy's QBR, Yet you keep telling us that Keenums QBR does not matter this season.  Looks like you are the one that makes no sense.  

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It's hard to know how to answer this because you don't know the specific price points or what else the team wants to do with the rest of the QB depth chart or the roster as a whole.

I think my cut-off for Bridgewater would be $10-12 million AAV.
I think my cut-off for Keenum would be $15-18 million AAV.

But if we brought both back, I'd like to keep the combined total under $25 million, if possible. That may require one to go even lower. But also, if the plan is to bring one back and draft and groom a QB, I could probably go a little higher than my cut-off for each individual. I'm not too worried about "a Flacco situation" because our front office seems to be one of the best at manipulating the salary cap and getting contracts that make sense for the team going forward.

I feel more confident in getting Bridgewater at that price point, but it's hard to say.

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9 minutes ago, Freakish Mind said:

LOL, So the first thing you bring up is Teddy's QBR, Yet you keep telling us that Keenums QBR does not matter this season.  Looks like you are the one that makes no sense.  

I haven't said that once.  I did link to an article that attempted to contextualize it however...way to really pick apart my argument tho

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25 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Keenum was historically bad in QBR and below average in PFF, and has been a worse deep passer than Teddy (even this year), with a 6.5 ypa compared to Teddys career average of 7.

Historically? I don’t have a great context of QBR, but Bradford’s worst year is worse than Keenum’s worst year.

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3 hours ago, Freakish Mind said:

I think a thread like this is needed to debate the two QB's.   I have no issue with our team handing out an 8 figure contract if that QB wins us our first Superbowl this year.      

I could also see our team bringing back both QB's next year, Case getting the big contract and Teddy getting a back up contract.   I don't think the market is going to be there for Teddy this offseason.  He's way to much of a question mark with his injury. 

I think THIS is what will happen, after Keenum leads The Vikings to The Super Bowl, but they lose to New England in a fairly close game.  I'd hate The Vikings to lose Teddy Bridgewater to keep Keenum.  But Bridgewater has to show he's back completely, and he can't show that until next season.  Keenum is already fairly old, and not proven to be worth big money.  Better to keep both if it can be done.  They should do everything they can to make it happen.  After the 2018 they should know which one is "the QB of their future".  With good luck it will be a fully healthy Bridgewater on a skill and consistency upswing progressing towards his ultimate potential. 

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Another aspect that muddies the water a bit right now is all the potential options. This is one of the deeper FA classes at QB in terms of starter-worthy players, and same at the top of the draft. I've seen some speculation the new standard for paying veteran QBs could be set this year. Does that affect everyone? Does that make Keenum more of a "value" compared to younger, bigger names? How do teams assess how much to pay for a stopgap QB? Does having multiple options in that category raise or lower the price point? Do teams focus more on drafting a QB, and aren't as willing to pay up for the FA market? Do teams try to double down ad get a guy in both the draft and free agency? Many of the potential QB landing spots have coaching vacancies....are they more willing to go in on a younger guy in the draft who have more question marks? Do they opt for more familiarity with guys who've produced in the league? How about guys who have a QB need, but maybe aren't super secure in their organization at this point? Does that change whether to look at the draft or free agency? What about the players? Do guys want to chance going somewhere he might be supplanted by a rookie halfway through the season like what happened to Glennon? Are they only looking for the biggest payday? Or are they willing to sacrifice some money for a familiar or stable situation where the pieces around them are in place? Is it better to go with a team that has stability in the coaching staff and subpar talent, or a team with great talent but an unstable or unknown coaching staff? A lot of questions to answer that can sway the outcome of who the right player is.

This isn't a video game where we can just scroll down to find the guy we want as fans and he's our guy. There are so many variables in play, and that's part of what will make this offseason so fun to monitor as Vikings fans and as NFL fans in general.

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59 minutes ago, Robb_K said:

I think THIS is what will happen, after Keenum leads The Vikings to The Super Bowl, but they lose to New England in a fairly close game.  I'd hate The Vikings to lose Teddy Bridgewater to keep Keenum.  But Bridgewater has to show he's back completely, and he can't show that until next season.  Keenum is already fairly old, and not proven to be worth big money.  Better to keep both if it can be done.  They should do everything they can to make it happen.  After the 2018 they should know which one is "the QB of their future".  With good luck it will be a fully healthy Bridgewater on a skill and consistency upswing progressing towards his ultimate potential. 

This is a reasonable statement. I picked Case, because like the NFL, I’m of the like mind of ‘what have you done for me lately’. I want Teddy to succeed and become the consensus, undeniable QBTF; unfortunately, no way to tell where he’s at after 2 years of insignificant playing time. Case is the man right now, but as Robb K and others have mentioned, I’d hate to lose Teddy and tie our horses to Case without further evaluation. Somehow, someway, we need to keep both QB’s and let the crime rise to the top. Bottom line, we are in a great position. I believe the Vikings front office will bring back both Case and Teddy. The near future of the Vikings QB ‘dilemma’ will come to a conclusion next year.

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15 minutes ago, Klomp said:

Another aspect that muddies the water a bit right now is all the potential options. This is one of the deeper FA classes at QB in terms of starter-worthy players, and same at the top of the draft. I've seen some speculation the new standard for paying veteran QBs could be set this year. Does that affect everyone? Does that make Keenum more of a "value" compared to younger, bigger names? How do teams assess how much to pay for a stopgap QB? Does having multiple options in that category raise or lower the price point? Do teams focus more on drafting a QB, and aren't as willing to pay up for the FA market? Do teams try to double down ad get a guy in both the draft and free agency? Many of the potential QB landing spots have coaching vacancies....are they more willing to go in on a younger guy in the draft who have more question marks? Do they opt for more familiarity with guys who've produced in the league? How about guys who have a QB need, but maybe aren't super secure in their organization at this point? Does that change whether to look at the draft or free agency? What about the players? Do guys want to chance going somewhere he might be supplanted by a rookie halfway through the season like what happened to Glennon? Are they only looking for the biggest payday? Or are they willing to sacrifice some money for a familiar or stable situation where the pieces around them are in place? Is it better to go with a team that has stability in the coaching staff and subpar talent, or a team with great talent but an unstable or unknown coaching staff? A lot of questions to answer that can sway the outcome of who the right player is.

This isn't a video game where we can just scroll down to find the guy we want as fans and he's our guy. There are so many variables in play, and that's part of what will make this offseason so fun to monitor as Vikings fans and as NFL fans in general.

Lots of questions is right. Absolutely agree that the off-season will be fun as it relates to the Vikings QB situation. We have such a well rounded team; great pieces going forward, that the QB decision is so vital. The right choice brings us a perennial super bowl quality team for the foreseeable future.

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9 hours ago, Klomp said:

It's hard to know how to answer this because you don't know the specific price points or what else the team wants to do with the rest of the QB depth chart or the roster as a whole.

I think my cut-off for Bridgewater would be $10-12 million AAV.
I think my cut-off for Keenum would be $15-18 million AAV.

But if we brought both back, I'd like to keep the combined total under $25 million, if possible. That may require one to go even lower. But also, if the plan is to bring one back and draft and groom a QB, I could probably go a little higher than my cut-off for each individual. I'm not too worried about "a Flacco situation" because our front office seems to be one of the best at manipulating the salary cap and getting contracts that make sense for the team going forward.

I feel more confident in getting Bridgewater at that price point, but it's hard to say.

I agree with feeling more confident in B.H20 at the lower price point, but I think you are way off in terms of your estimate of Case's market value. Mike Glennon got 3 years at $45 million last year with $18.5 guaranteed. It would cost about 20 mil to franchise case, so realistically if I'm him, that's the starting for annual salary, and given that its like a 40% raise in year two under the tag, I'd be looking for a guarantee that nears the two year franchise tag total. I would bet a lot that Case gets approx. $40 guaranteed, 4 years, $80 million. More if we win it all. And while it sounds like a lot, he's still way under the top bar set by Stafford at $27 mil per year. QB's are expensive af, especially ones with any recent success. 

6 hours ago, Klomp said:

Another aspect that muddies the water a bit right now is all the potential options. This is one of the deeper FA classes at QB in terms of starter-worthy players, and same at the top of the draft. I've seen some speculation the new standard for paying veteran QBs could be set this year. Does that affect everyone? Does that make Keenum more of a "value" compared to younger, bigger names? How do teams assess how much to pay for a stopgap QB? Does having multiple options in that category raise or lower the price point? Do teams focus more on drafting a QB, and aren't as willing to pay up for the FA market? Do teams try to double down ad get a guy in both the draft and free agency? Many of the potential QB landing spots have coaching vacancies....are they more willing to go in on a younger guy in the draft who have more question marks? Do they opt for more familiarity with guys who've produced in the league? How about guys who have a QB need, but maybe aren't super secure in their organization at this point? Does that change whether to look at the draft or free agency? What about the players? Do guys want to chance going somewhere he might be supplanted by a rookie halfway through the season like what happened to Glennon? Are they only looking for the biggest payday? Or are they willing to sacrifice some money for a familiar or stable situation where the pieces around them are in place? Is it better to go with a team that has stability in the coaching staff and subpar talent, or a team with great talent but an unstable or unknown coaching staff? A lot of questions to answer that can sway the outcome of who the right player is.

This isn't a video game where we can just scroll down to find the guy we want as fans and he's our guy. There are so many variables in play, and that's part of what will make this offseason so fun to monitor as Vikings fans and as NFL fans in general.

Most economist agree that an increase in supply should drive prices down. That said, demand is going to be up a bit too with so many teams potentially losing a starter. I think the magnitude of the increased supply affect will outweigh the increase in demand, given that some of the increased supply comes from back ups (like McCarron/Teddy/Bradford) or highly touted rookies that don't actually increase the number of job vacancies at the QB position. 

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To me it depends on money. I'd love to bring both back and let them duke it out in the preseason. But I wonder how much Keenum will cost to keep. I think he's worth paying some to keep around, but I also think this is his top end. I don't think we'd ever see him play at this level again, and we might have to pay for a QB in him at a higher level than what his numbers say.

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QB is a little different then other positions... you are more willing to pay (annual $) more for that incremental increase in talent. (I forget the economist terminology here).

So I don't think we're going to be bargain shopping when it comes to the QB position and our current options. Cousins I expect to get tagged again, so not thinking about him as a potential option either.

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