kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 I think they will go hard today on the l'Iseran. It's not the most difficult stage, but it's a cumulative effect at the end of 3 weeks. Bernal looks the most likely to get the time, imo. Thomas doesn't have the legs to shake anyone. Pinot may try, but I can't see anyone else blowing the race apart. I think Ineos, Movistar and Lotto Jumbo go all out early in the hope of cracking Ala. Sometimes the short stages are even more brutal becauase of the limited rest between climbs and the inevitable high pace. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 Pinot looks done. That's a massive shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 Pinot abandons, thats absolutely savage. Very harsh on him, looked incredible in the first 2 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 Stage canceled because of a hail storm. What on earth? I've never seen anything like this at the TDF. Bernal with an unbelievable ride to take the yellow jersey. Fully deserved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 16 minutes ago, kempus said: Stage canceled because of a hail storm. What on earth? I've never seen anything like this at the TDF. Bernal with an unbelievable ride to take the yellow jersey. Fully deserved. I'm with you until the last sentence. I think they should have just said this stage is totally cancelled and no time change. It was still too early in the race where tactics mattered in placement. I'm not saying Alaphilippe could have gone with Bernal, he couldn't, but he didn't go as hard up the mountain as he could either tactically knowing he'd gain it on the decent and then saving it for the climb to the finish. There is more equity in saying no time change than in saying this "arbitrary" point (I use quotes because I get that as far as this stage goes there is a clearly defined point and timing mechanism, but still is ultimately arbitrary in the sense of the stage as a whole) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 (edited) 8 minutes ago, mse326 said: I'm with you until the last sentence. I think they should have just said this stage is totally cancelled and no time change. It was still too early in the race where tactics mattered in placement. I'm not saying Alaphilippe could have gone with Bernal, he couldn't, but he didn't go as hard up the mountain as he could either tactically knowing he'd gain it on the decent and then saving it for the climb to the finish. There is more equity in saying no time change than in saying this "arbitrary" point (I use quotes because I get that as far as this stage goes there is a clearly defined point and timing mechanism, but still is ultimately arbitrary in the sense of the stage as a whole) Alaphilippe was absolutely done up the l'Iseran. He was going full gass. Sure, it's a difficult decision where to stop the race, but the top of the climb, where they have precice recording devices, is the most logical. Cancelling the entire stage would have made literally no sense. Ala may actually be lucky it was finished there. He could have lost another chunk of time on the last climb. Its Thomas and Stevie K who are the worst affected. They would surely have gone harder if they had known the l'Iseran was the finish point. Restarting the race after the weather is the only other suggestion. Let them race with the time gaps that were at the top. Edited July 26, 2019 by kempus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 6 minutes ago, kempus said: Cancelling the entire stage would have made literally no sense Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: Why? How can you ignore the entire 100km and everything that has happened before that? That would have been the ultimate injustice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 Just now, kempus said: How can you ignore the entire 100km and everything that has happened before that? That would have been the ultimate injustice. Same way several sports do. Because there is more injustice at stopping it at an arbitrary point in the race. Tactics are based on the stage as a whole so people get screwed by that. No one gets screwed by not considering it since they all did what they were going to do on the past stages. If this was a Classics race I'd agree since that is all you can do. Here it is best to not count the stage at all (if you don't think he can restart it later). There is no requirement that there be 21 stages. 20 stages is perfectly reasonable too if that is all weather allows. I don't see how this is then any less equitable that if the stage was cancelled before the start. Sure they started the stage, but times and placements were too much based on tactics intended for a much different stage than what we got. That is far more unjust than not counting it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: Same way several sports do. Because there is more injustice at stopping it at an arbitrary point in the race. Tactics are based on the stage as a whole so people get screwed by that. No one gets screwed by not considering it since they all did what they were going to do on the past stages. If this was a Classics race I'd agree since that is all you can do. Here it is best to not count the stage at all (if you don't think he can restart it later). There is no requirement that there be 21 stages. 20 stages is perfectly reasonable too if that is all weather allows. I don't see how this is then any less equitable that if the stage was cancelled before the start. Sure they started the stage, but times and placements were too much based on tactics intended for a much different stage than what we got. That is far more unjust than not counting it. Everyone ended up getting screwed by this. However, cancelling the entire stage would have been farcical. You can't just ignore the fact that Bernal had taken 2 minutes on Ala. There was only 30km left to the end of the stage. Lets not pretend this was at the start of the stage and that everyone was holding back. Almost everyone would have been close to the limit at the top of the l'Iseran. Sure, anything could have happened, but taking that as the end point is as good as any. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mse326 Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 1 minute ago, kempus said: Everyone ended up getting screwed by this. However, cancelling the entire stage would have been farcical. You can't just ignore the fact that Bernal had taken 2 minutes on Ala. There was only 30km left to the end of the stage. Lets not pretend this was at the start of the stage and that everyone was holding back. Almost everyone would have been close to the limit at the top of the l'Iseran. Sure, anything could have happened, but taking that as the end point is as good as any. But at the time of cancellation Ala had already brought back some of that time and likely could have got back at least 30 seconds to 1 minute before the final climb if not more. Then who knows what happens. It's not about ignoring it happened. It's about realizing that part of why it happened was tactics being used for a longer stage. As much as that point is a logical choice given the timing mechanism, it is still just as arbitrary as any point on the course from the perspective of the stage as a whole. There is no farce there. Just like baseball restarts a game from the beginning if it is called before it is official. Same with NASCAR. The farce is to say Bernal beat Ala by 2 minutes on the stage when the stage wasn't actually completed? Imagine another stage where a breakaway is 5 minutes up. Everyone knows they'll be caught before the end but then poof stage cancelled. Well the breakaway did take 5 minutes so we can't ignore that? That isn't how we understand stage tactics to work. Bernal had taken 2 minutes out of Ala at a random point in the stage, not in the stage. That is the problem with taking that time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, mse326 said: But at the time of cancellation Ala had already brought back some of that time and likely could have got back at least 30 seconds to 1 minute before the final climb if not more. Then who knows what happens. It's not about ignoring it happened. It's about realizing that part of why it happened was tactics being used for a longer stage. As much as that point is a logical choice given the timing mechanism, it is still just as arbitrary as any point on the course from the perspective of the stage as a whole. There is no farce there. Just like baseball restarts a game from the beginning if it is called before it is official. Same with NASCAR. The farce is to say Bernal beat Ala by 2 minutes on the stage when the stage wasn't actually completed? Imagine another stage where a breakaway is 5 minutes up. Everyone knows they'll be caught before the end but then poof stage cancelled. Well the breakaway did take 5 minutes so we can't ignore that? That isn't how we understand stage tactics to work. Bernal had taken 2 minutes out of Ala at a random point in the stage, not in the stage. That is the problem with taking that time. He had taken back a handful of seconds. He was at least 50 seconds behind the Thomas group at the last time check. Its just as easy for me to say that Ala would have lost another 2 minutes on the final climb, which is a more realistic scenario than him getting the time back. This isn't either of those sports though. Impossible to compare. You talk about stage tactics, but there was only 30km of race left. You're completely ignoring the fact that most riders would have been close to flat out up the l'Iseran. As such, it's the most logical end point. Anything after that is just speculation, but you cant ignore what happened before. It's an imperfect end, but there was next to no alternative. Everyone has concluded the race had to be stopped (impassable and there were mud slides on. he final climb). The issue is the lateness of communication from the Tour to the riders that there was a chance of the stage being cancelled. Perhaps the time gaps would have been different if they had all known. Bernal may have even taken more time, to be honest. He's quite clearly the strongest rider in the race at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedLavie Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 I don't think the decision is unfair to Alaf. if anything, it allowed him to stay on the podium. He would have allowed even more time in the Tignes climb. The decision might be unfair to the trio behind who couldn't follow bernal but were hoping they could bring themselves back for the 10km between the downhill and the climb in Tignes. However, I think Bernal would have still won over a minute on anyone. In the end, I think the decision was obviously necessary and cancelling the stage would have been super unfair to Bernal. As for Pinot, this is the saddest I've been watching cycling ever (excluding obviously when someone died on the bike). He was our hope to finally win a Tour. And now it's over. Looks like we have several years of Bernal domination coming 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kempus Posted July 26, 2019 Author Share Posted July 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, TedLavie said: I don't think the decision is unfair to Alaf. if anything, it allowed him to stay on the podium. He would have allowed even more time in the Tignes climb. The decision might be unfair to the trio behind who couldn't follow bernal but were hoping they could bring themselves back for the 10km between the downhill and the climb in Tignes. However, I think Bernal would have still won over a minute on anyone. In the end, I think the decision was obviously necessary and cancelling the stage would have been super unfair to Bernal. As for Pinot, this is the saddest I've been watching cycling ever (excluding obviously when someone died on the bike). He was our hope to finally win a Tour. And now it's over. Looks like we have several years of Bernal domination coming I agree with all of this. Bernal is the strongest rider in this race, by a fair margin, and looks primed to be one of the all time greats, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TedLavie Posted July 26, 2019 Share Posted July 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, kempus said: I agree with all of this. Bernal is the strongest rider in this race, by a fair margin, and looks primed to be one of the all time greats, imo. I wouldn't say he has been the strongest rider in this race overall by a fair margin. He had a bad TT, in the Pyrenees he wasn't dominant by any means. Even in la Planche he didn't look great. But he sure finishes the Tour strong, and the altitude definitely favors him over Euro climbers. I very much regret not seeing what Pinot at 100% would have been able to do against him. But when you take into account that he wasn't supposed to do the Tour at all this year and had all his preparation shifted after his fall before the Giro, it's impressive for sure. I thought he would crack in the 3rd week because of that. Quite the contrary happened Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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