JBURGE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 3 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said: So I saw two things about the AAF that made me like it, both of which probably make me a bad person: 1. I saw a QB get hit hard, with a proper form tackle that had some minor incidental helmet to helmet contact. His helmet flew off (AJ Hawk style) and no flag was thrown. 2. A receiver running a deep route got hit just as the ball was arriving. There was incidental helmet to helmet contact. No flag was thrown. Weird as hell watching players moving without that hesitation. Even if they are scrubs. They've got nothing to lose. At the nfl level though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, JBURGE said: wow, did not expect this. But like you said, with the new rules, not even worth comparing Onside kicks are effectively dead now in the NFL. Success rate is a mere 7.5% now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Dubz41 said: Sign Mo and draft Simmons @ 30. Serendipity. After tearing his ACL, Simmons is a late Day 2 prospect at best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norm Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said: In the NFL, 4th and 12 has a 19% success rate. The year before the rules change, onside success rate was 23% (over the past decade it’s been lower than that though though). It’s in the right ballpark. Man I swore it was like low teens this year that I saw on TV. I'm not a super math man but why does it have to be 4th and 12? Like I feel the percentage of any down and 12 and converting on that down has to be higher Edit: didn't read before the rule changes Edited February 13, 2019 by Norm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 20 minutes ago, Norm said: Man I swore it was like low teens this year that I saw on TV. I'm not a super math man but why does it have to be 4th and 12? Like I feel the percentage of any down and 12 and converting on that down has to be higher Edit: didn't read before the rule changes Onside kicks this year? I'm pretty sure the success rate was in the single digits. Equating to a waste of time. The new rule killed it as an effective tool IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Kruse: Potential cut candidate to watch for the Packers: Raiders G Kelechi Osemele. Two-time Pro Bowler drafted by the Ravens out of Iowa State in 2012. Who was the Ravens midwest scout in 2012? New Packers director of football operations Milt Hendrickson. Obvious need at guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted February 13, 2019 Author Share Posted February 13, 2019 Google: Kicking teams have recovered three of 34 onside attempts this season, an 8 percent success rate that pales in comparison to last year's 23 percent conversion rate when 13 of 55 onside kicks were recovered by the kicking team. Over the last decade, that success rate has hovered around 15 percent. (Nov 22, 2018) 3 of 34 attempts? Not worth the effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Leader said: Kruse: Potential cut candidate to watch for the Packers: Raiders G Kelechi Osemele. Two-time Pro Bowler drafted by the Ravens out of Iowa State in 2012. Who was the Ravens midwest scout in 2012? New Packers director of football operations Milt Hendrickson. Obvious need at guard. It would be a stark difference in the type of OL that GB generally targets. GB has predominantly gone for guys that test well in the shuttle and 3-cone (and are usually more towards the middle or slightly below middle in terms of size), and Osemele doesn't fit that profile at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Leader said: Kruse: Potential cut candidate to watch for the Packers: Raiders G Kelechi Osemele. Two-time Pro Bowler drafted by the Ravens out of Iowa State in 2012. Who was the Ravens midwest scout in 2012? New Packers director of football operations Milt Hendrickson. Obvious need at guard. 10 minutes ago, rcon14 said: It would be a stark difference in the type of OL that GB generally targets. GB has predominantly gone for guys that test well in the shuttle and 3-cone (and are usually more towards the middle or slightly below middle in terms of size), and Osemele doesn't fit that profile at all. That is what I find most interesting now....new GM, new coach, presumably new scheme...we may see GB deviate from their old "norm" like they did with Alexander and his lack of height. Makes the off-season oh so more interesting with the new regime in GB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cakeshoppe Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, Norm said: Man I swore it was like low teens this year that I saw on TV. I'm not a super math man but why does it have to be 4th and 12? Like I feel the percentage of any down and 12 and converting on that down has to be higher Edit: didn't read before the rule changes I think surprise onside kicks bring it up a bit because they had a far higher success rate, but they’re also pretty rare. Realistically, you’re probably looking at about a 15% success rate for expected onside kicks before the rule changes. After the rule changes, it’s like 8% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Would have to be for nothing on Osenele Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Just now, vegas492 said: That is what I find most interesting now....new GM, new coach, presumably new scheme...we may see GB deviate from their old "norm" like they did with Alexander and his lack of height. Makes the off-season oh so more interesting with the new regime in GB. And that's the thing... I don't know what the new norms are. Aside from Jaire's height (5/8" short of threshold), Gute followed the TT thresholds the whole way down EXCEPT for Cole Madison, an OL. I don't know if Madison was a one-time change or if GB is going to switch up how they acquire OL. Honestly, I think it would be a massive mistake to change what they were doing. They were able to assemble what was an elite OL for years (Bahk/Sitton/Linsley(Tretter)/Lang/Bulaga) with only one significant piece of draft capital (Bulaga's 1st round pick). The model they used worked, so it'd be a real shame to see them change it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegas492 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 36 minutes ago, rcon14 said: And that's the thing... I don't know what the new norms are. Aside from Jaire's height (5/8" short of threshold), Gute followed the TT thresholds the whole way down EXCEPT for Cole Madison, an OL. I don't know if Madison was a one-time change or if GB is going to switch up how they acquire OL. Honestly, I think it would be a massive mistake to change what they were doing. They were able to assemble what was an elite OL for years (Bahk/Sitton/Linsley(Tretter)/Lang/Bulaga) with only one significant piece of draft capital (Bulaga's 1st round pick). The model they used worked, so it'd be a real shame to see them change it. Change is a tough word, especially when you look at those results. I see them doing more of a "tweak" than a change. Real question for yah...do you see Spriggs working out long term? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 2 minutes ago, vegas492 said: Change is a tough word, especially when you look at those results. I see them doing more of a "tweak" than a change. Real question for yah...do you see Spriggs working out long term? I think Spriggs is a competent OT but not a great one. His athleticism is virtually unparalleled: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/jason-spriggs His problem is two-fold: He gets beat with inside moves, which doesn't allow him to use his athleticism very well. He needs to be stronger and he needs to stop trying to dance with pass rushers. His ceiling is still super high, but at some point, you are what you are. Edited February 13, 2019 by rcon14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chili Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, rcon14 said: It would be a stark difference in the type of OL that GB generally targets. GB has predominantly gone for guys that test well in the shuttle and 3-cone (and are usually more towards the middle or slightly below middle in terms of size), and Osemele doesn't fit that profile at all. As the Packers are going to be running Shanahan's ZBS, I understand this system requires OLmen who can move and have a certain level of athleticism. Since the Packers have always operated this way I expect the way we scout OL will not change much, even with Hendrickson in the mix. We've always targeted athletic OT as potential guards. Our current OL scouting philosophy meshes well with our OL scheme. I suspect what Hendrickson will provide is to fine tune the way we scout OL and make us more proficient at identifying the best OL prospects. He will have to move away from the big and heavy philosophy that he's used to at Baltimore. I'm sure Hendrickson influence will extend far more than just OL. I remember reading somewhere that he would improve our TE scouting considering the Ravens regularly draft TEs but they quickly forget that they have SUCKED in drafting TEs. They haven't made a good selection since Dennis Pitta in 2010. Since 2010 they used top 3 draft picks on Ed Dickson, Crockett Gilmore, Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst - all busted. In the process they were forced to dip into free agency by bringing in Dallas Clark, Ben Watson, Owen Daniels. Edited February 13, 2019 by Chili Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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