Random Packer News & Notes

[wgbeethree]

14 hours ago, blueswedeshoes said:

My god we are! It’s like the Packer version of Big Bang Theory. Next name change season I have dibs on “Bill Schröedinger’s Cat”.

Looks around at all the smugness and complete lack of humor on the board....

[Norm]

Smudgeness*

[Uffdaswede]

2 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

Looks around at all the smugness and complete lack of humor on the board....

Idiosyncratic Humor uses the forum’s Extreme Gravity to create a slingshot effect. One doesn’t function without the other. 

[festiveonion]

4 hours ago, blueswedeshoes said:

Idiosyncratic Humor uses the forum’s Extreme Gravity to create a slingshot effect. One doesn’t function without the other. 

........takes one to know one

 

 

Swish!

[HyponGrey]

On 5/17/2019 at 11:50 PM, incognito_man said:

Brian Brohmian Mechanic here

Being nowhere near as clever as y'all, I'll take SphericalChickens

[AlNFL19]

Do you all think this is a pretty good track record for a statistical model? The results here are my WR projection model's projected bust chance and Pro Bowl chance against their NFL Approximate Value. A "Bust" is defined as <5.0 AV (average of years 3-4) for the purposes of the model, and "Pro Bowl" is defined as 10.0+. The "NFL AV" column is the player's average AV in Years 3-4, with "Busts" in red and "Pro Bowlers" in purple (green = hit, so just not a bust).

2006-2015 WR Model Results
GROUP: Moderate Risk I (Projected Bust Chance: <50%)
Results: 26.83% (11/41) Busts
Year	Name	College	NFL AV	Bust Chance	PB Chance
2010	D. Bryant	Oklahoma State	11.5	6.56%	21.58%
2010	D. Thomas	Georgia Tech	13.5	6.77%	21.53%
2015	A. Cooper	Alabama	4	8.04%	21.21%
2012	K. Wright	Baylor	4	21.61%	17.80%
2013	S. Bailey	West Virginia	0.5	22.67%	17.53%
2007	C. Johnson	Georgia Tech	8.5	24.79%	17.00%
2014	D. Adams	Fresno State	9	25.85%	16.73%
2012	J. Blackmon	Oklahoma State	0	29.25%	15.88%
2014	B. Cooks	Oregon State	12	31.79%	15.24%
2014	J. Matthews	Vanderbilt	5	32.43%	15.08%
2009	H. Nicks	North Carolina	9	33.70%	14.76%
2013	D. Hopkins	Clemson	9	34.12%	14.65%
2015	T. Lockett	Kansas State	8	35.18%	14.38%
2014	S. Watkins	Clemson	5	37.09%	13.90%
2015	N. Agholor	USC	7	37.52%	13.80%
2013	T. Williams	Baylor	5.5	38.15%	13.64%
2008	J. Nelson	Kansas State	10	38.79%	13.48%
2010	G. Tate	Notre Dame	8.5	39.21%	13.37%
2006	G. Jennings	Western Michigan	11.5	39.42%	13.32%
2014	J. Landry	LSU	8.5	39.85%	13.21%
2012	A.J. Jenkins	Illinois	0.5	40.06%	13.16%
2010	J. Shipley	Texas	1	40.27%	13.10%
2013	T. Austin	West Virginia	5.5	41.12%	12.89%
2008	J. Hardy	Indiana	0	42.39%	12.57%
2015	K. White	West Virginia	0.5	42.39%	12.57%
2009	J. Maclin	Missouri	6.5	43.45%	12.30%
2009	M. Crabtree	Texas Tech	9.5	44.51%	12.04%
2007	J. Jones	San Jose State	5	45.36%	11.82%
2007	D. Bowe	LSU	8	46.21%	11.61%
2011	J. Jones	Alabama	9.5	46.21%	11.61%
2007	R. Meachem	Tennessee	7	46.42%	11.56%
2012	M. Floyd	Notre Dame	7	47.06%	11.40%
2009	P. Harvin	Florida	10.5	47.06%	11.40%
2009	K. Britt	Rutgers	3	47.48%	11.29%
2008	D. Avery	Houston	0	47.69%	11.24%
2014	O. Beckham Jr.	LSU	6	47.90%	11.18%
2014	M. Evans	Texas A&M	9	48.12%	11.13%
2008	D. Thomas	Michigan State	0	48.33%	11.08%
2014	K. Benjamin	Florida State	6.5	48.96%	10.92%
2006	S. Holmes	Ohio State	9	49.18%	10.86%
2012	R. Randle	LSU	7.5	49.81%	10.70%
GROUP: Moderate Risk II (Projected Bust Chance: 50-60%)
Results: 60.87% (14/23) Busts
2014	A. Robinson	Penn State	3	50.87%	10.44%
2012	S. Hill	Georgia Tech	0	51.08%	10.38%
2011	T. Smith	Maryland	7.5	51.08%	10.38%
2007	M. Sims-Walker	UCF	7	51.30%	10.33%
2014	P. Richardson	Colorado	4	51.30%	10.33%
2007	S. Rice	South Carolina	8	51.51%	10.28%
2012	M. Sanu	Rutgers	6.5	51.93%	10.17%
2006	C. Jackson	Florida	0	52.57%	10.01%
2011	L. Hankerson	Miami	1	53.42%	9.80%
2015	D. Green-Beckham	Missouri	0	54.05%	9.64%
2007	J. Lee Higgins	UTEP	1.5	54.26%	9.58%
2013	M. Wheaton	Oregon State	3	55.33%	9.32%
2008	M. Manningham	Michigan	6	55.54%	9.26%
2007	T. Ginn Jr.	Ohio State	4	55.54%	9.26%
2007	D. Jarrett	USC	1	55.54%	9.26%
2011	T. Young	Boise State	0	55.75%	9.21%
2014	J. Huff	Oregon	1	55.75%	9.21%
2011	V. Brown	San Diego State	3	55.96%	9.16%
2011	A.J. Green	Georgia	11	55.96%	9.16%
2010	E. Sanders	SMU	6	56.17%	9.10%
2015	J. Strong	Arizona State	0	56.39%	9.05%
2010	B. LaFell	LSU	6	57.66%	8.73%
2013	R. Woods	USC	5.5	58.72%	8.46%
GROUP: High Risk (Projected Bust Chance: 60-80%)
Results: 76.32% (29/38) Busts
2007	S. Smith	USC	7.5	60.20%	8.09%
2015	D. Smith	Ohio State	0	60.84%	7.93%
2011	A. Pettis	Boise State	2.5	61.26%	7.82%
2012	A. Jeffery	South Carolina	8	62.32%	7.56%
2015	B. Perriman	UCF	1.5	62.53%	7.50%
2012	R. Broyles	Oklahoma	0	62.96%	7.40%
2009	B. Robiskie	Ohio State	0	63.17%	7.34%
2006	B. Williams	Wisconsin	0	63.17%	7.34%
2013	J. Hunter	Tennessee	2	63.38%	7.29%
2006	M. Stovall	Notre Dame	1	63.38%	7.29%
2009	J. Iglesias	Oklahoma	0	63.59%	7.24%
2012	T.Y. Hilton	FIU	10	63.81%	7.18%
2014	C. Latimer	Indiana	1.5	64.23%	7.08%
2010	D. Williams	USC	2	64.23%	7.08%
2007	A. Gonzalez	Ohio State	0.5	64.23%	7.08%
2009	M. Massaquoi	Georgia	2	65.08%	6.86%
2008	M. Kelly	Oklahoma	0	65.50%	6.76%
2008	E. Bennett	Vanderbilt	4	66.99%	6.38%
2006	D. Hagan	Arizona State	0.5	67.20%	6.33%
2015	P. Dorsett	Miami	2.5	67.83%	6.17%
2011	J. Baldwin	Pittsburgh	0	68.47%	6.01%
2015	D. Funchess	Michigan	6.5	69.53%	5.74%
2007	C. Davis	LSU	2	70.59%	5.48%
2009	P. Turner	USC	0.5	70.59%	5.48%
2014	M. Lee	USC	6.5	71.86%	5.16%
2008	H. Douglas	Louisville	4	72.50%	5.00%
2008	A. Caldwell	Florida	3	72.50%	5.00%
2008	D. Jackson	California	9.5	73.77%	4.68%
2015	C. Conley	Georgia	3	74.20%	4.57%
2011	J. Jernigan	Troy	1	74.62%	4.46%
2009	M. Wallace	Mississippi	8.5	75.68%	4.19%
2015	D. Parker	Louisville	3.5	75.89%	4.14%
2010	T. Price	Ohio State	0	76.53%	3.98%
2009	D. Butler	Penn State	0	76.95%	3.87%
2009	D. Heyward-Bey	Maryland	6	78.01%	3.61%
2014	D. Moncrief	Mississippi	3	78.44%	3.50%
2010	E. Decker	Minnesota	11.5	79.71%	3.18%
2006	S. Moss	Miami	1	79.92%	3.13%
GROUP: Very High Risk (Projected Bust Chance: 80-99.99%)
Results: 94.74% (18/19) Busts
2013	C. Patterson	Tennessee	3.5	81.83%	2.65%
2008	E. Doucet	LSU	3.5	82.46%	2.49%
2013	A. Dobson	Marshall	0.5	83.95%	2.11%
2015	S. Coates	Auburn	0	84.37%	2.01%
2007	J. Hill	Washington State	2	85.86%	1.63%
2011	R. Cobb	Kentucky	10	86.28%	1.53%
2008	E. Royal	Virginia Tech	3.5	87.13%	1.31%
2010	A. Benn	Illinois	0	88.61%	<1.00%
2009	D. Williams	Penn State	0	89.25%	<1.00%
2012	T.J. Graham	N.C. State	0.5	90.73%	<1.00%
2006	W. Reid	Florida State	0	97.73%	<1.00%
2007	Y. Figurs	Kansas State	0	99.64%	<1.00%
2013	M. Goodwin	Texas	2	>99.90%	<1.00%
2008	L. Sweed	Texas	0	>99.90%	<1.00%
2006	T. Wilson	Oklahoma	0	>99.90%	<1.00%
2011	G. Little	North Carolina	2	>99.90%	<1.00%
2012	D. Posey	Ohio State	0	>99.90%	<1.00%
2007	P. Williams	Fresno State	0	>99.90%	<1.00%
2009	B. Tate	North Carolina	1.5	>99.90%	<1.00%

[boratt]

What is factored in?

[incognito_man]

Seems like a solid track record. Did you develop the criteria logically and apply and record? Or tweak it after seeing results and try to fit it to the known results though?

[boratt]

You could factor in some production pieces too, like:

 

yards per game

% of total offense ypg to account for just being a part of a bad passing attack

Power conferences could get a little edge

NFL style offenses could get a little edge

touch downs adjusted for total passing offense

 

If you added that in, I would think you could get even closer.

[AlNFL19]

I didn't tweak it, I just saw that it worked and called it done. It factors in:

• Draft Position
• Volume Statistics like Yards, Touchdowns*, Receptions
• Market Share Statistics like Yards per Team Attempt*, TDs per Team Attempt*, Receptions per Team Attempt*
• Mass in Terms of Weight/Height

* Means it actually has a higher correlation to AV than Draft Position.

It doesn't include any combine testing because none of it really correlated very well at all to a higher AV.

@boratt @incognito_man

Edited May 19, 2019 by AlNFL19

[boratt]

First of all, nice work.

 

 

You found combine performance not to matter much?

 

draft position sort of goes against what we do here. I would like to see both, one with draft position factored in and another without. To see how NFL teams picked against your model.

 

I wonder if you could make a slight modifier for large schools and for schools with nfl style offenses?

 

i wonder if you could make a slight athletic performance modifier too? Slight, just to affect the AV in the small degree in which it is applicable. I would guess your draft position inclusion already does that, but again, I’d want to see your model against their picking, to see where they fall. 

 

Edited May 19, 2019 by boratt

[HighCalebR]

Interesting that 3/8 of the pro bowlers didnt get a 2nd contract with their drafting team.

Where was Antonio Brown? Interesting that Stedman made it but his higher drafted counterpart Tavon didnt. Kindve feels like an incomplete data set.

Shouldnt injury busts be removed from the data set?

What are these last few years %'s?

Edited May 19, 2019 by HighCalebR

[AlNFL19]

1 minute ago, boratt said:

First of all, nice work.

You found combine performance not to matter much?

Yeah. A lot of workout-warrior receivers suck in the NFL, and plenty of terrible combine performances come from NFL studs. Granted, I think WR is actually one of the least combine-reliant positions. Even 40 time barely mattered.

draft position sort of goes against what we do here. I would like to see both, one with draft position factored in and another without. To see how NFL teams picked against your model.

I can try to find the correlation without draft position in a second.

I wonder if you could make a slight modifier for large schools and for schools with nfl style offenses?

i wonder if you could make a slight athletic performance modifier too? Slight, just to affect the AV in the small degree in which it is applicable. I would guess your draft position inclusion already does that though.

Yeah, these two things might be on the checklist for the future but not for right now. First I'd need to see if an NFL-style-offense or large-school boost has much of a merit before determining how to go about that. 

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[AlNFL19]

3 minutes ago, HighCalebR said:

Interesting that 3/8 of the pro bowlers didnt get a 2nd contract with their drafting team.

What are these last few years %'s?

These last few years don't have concrete results because since 2016 no WR drafted has played 4 years yet, obviously. Here's the projections:

2016-19 WR Model Results
GROUP: Moderate Risk I (Projected Bust Chance: <50%)
Year	Name	College	Projected AV	Bust Chance	PB Chance
2017	C. Davis	Western Michigan	6.66	4.23%	22.17%
2016	C. Coleman	Baylor	5.82	22.04%	17.69%
2017	T. Taylor	Western Kentucky	5.66	25.43%	16.84%
2017	J. Ross	Washington	5.56	27.55%	16.30%
2019	A. Isabella	Massachusetts	5.33	32.43%	15.08%
2018	A. Miller	Memphis	5.31	32.85%	14.97%
2017	Z. Jones	East Carolina	5.17	35.82%	14.22%
2017	C. Henderson	Louisiana Tech	5	39.42%	13.32%
2016	W. Fuller	Notre Dame	4.93	40.91%	12.94%
2019	M. Brown	Oklahoma	4.85	42.60%	12.52%
2018	D.J. Moore	Maryland	4.74	44.94%	11.93%
2016	S. Shepard	Oklahoma	4.7	45.78%	11.72%
2017	M. Williams	Clemson	4.68	46.21%	11.61%
2016	J. Doctson	TCU	4.62	47.48%	11.29%
2018	J. Washington	Oklahoma State	4.54	49.18%	10.86%
GROUP: Moderate Risk II (Projected Bust Chance: 50-60%)
2016	T. Boyd	Pittsburgh	4.47	50.66%	10.49%
2019	J.J. Arcega-Whiteside	Stanford	4.44	51.30%	10.33%
2016	L. Treadwell	Mississippi	4.43	51.51%	10.28%
2019	N. Harry	Arizona State	4.43	51.51%	10.28%
2018	M. Gallup	Colorado State	4.4	52.14%	10.12%
2017	C. Samuel	Ohio State	4.33	53.63%	9.74%
2019	P. Campbell	Ohio State	4.26	55.11%	9.37%
2018	C. Ridley	Alabama	4.19	56.60%	9.00%
2017	C. Godwin	Penn State	4.17	57.02%	8.89%
2018	C. Sutton	SMU	4.16	57.23%	8.84%
2018	T. Smith	UCF	4.16	57.23%	8.84%
2016	M. Thomas	Ohio State	4.13	57.87%	8.68%
2017	K. Golladay	Northern Illinois	4.11	58.29%	8.57%
2019	A.J. Brown	Mississippi	4.11	58.29%	8.57%
GROUP: High Risk (Projected Bust Chance: 60-80%)
2019	D. Samuel	South Carolina	4.02	60.20%	8.09%
2018	C. Kirk	Texas A&M	4.01	60.41%	8.04%
2018	D. Pettis	Washington	3.88	63.17%	7.34%
2017	J. Smith-Schuster	USC	3.87	63.38%	7.29%
2017	A. Stewart	Alabama	3.7	66.99%	6.38%
2016	L. Carroo	Rutgers	3.53	70.59%	5.48%
2019	M. Boykin	Notre Dame	3.49	71.44%	5.26%
2017	A. Darboh	Michigan	3.48	71.65%	5.21%
2019	D. Johnson	Toledo	3.4	73.35%	4.78%
2019	J. Hurd	Baylor	3.28	75.89%	4.14%
2018	D.J. Chark	LSU	3.27	76.10%	4.09%
2019	M. Hardman	Georgia	3.15	78.65%	3.45%
GROUP: Very High Risk (Projected Bust Chance: 80-99.99%)
2019	T. McLaurin	Ohio State	3.02	81.40%	2.75%
2019	D.K. Metcalf	Mississippi	2.45	93.49%	<1.00%
2016	B. Miller	Ohio State	2.21	98.58%	<1.00%

[boratt]

Thanks for the work man! It’s interesring for sure!