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100 days till the Packers -bears kick it off to launch the 2019 season

 

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5 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

100 days till the Packers -bears kick it off to launch the 2019 season

 

Ugh, that seems like a long time.

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22 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Ugh, that seems like a long time.

I could easily be dead by then. Football may never come for me :(

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2 hours ago, Leader said:

I've tried to put it in explainable and understandable context....choosing some QB stats for discussion purposes. Its obviously more complex than simply total yards and TDs - but we're not here to reinvent the wheel and I'm not making an argument - but what seems like a rational point:

If a QB - regardless of name, organization, age, etc - can only throw for so many yards, TDs etc - why are they entitled to an ever increasing salary? 

Their on the field production CAN be quantified based on past performance, rules interpretations etc.

 

Then back to square 1: because their pay is tied to league revenue.

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Sorry but this is a just a really bad argument with the OP being completely wrong.

QBs aren't getting paid "more" now. It's super easy to look up the numbers.

The highest paid QBs have been getting paid approximately the same percentage (~17%-19%) of the cap since the advent of the salary cap in 1994. 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

Sorry but this is a just a really bad argument with the OP being completely wrong. QBs aren't getting paid "more" now. It's super easy to look up the numbers. The highest paid QBs have been getting paid approximately the same percentage (~17%-19%) of the cap since the advent of the salary cap in 1994.

It's really a simple equation.

With players collectively getting 48% of a teams revenue in any given year - the money has to be distributed (positionally) somewhere.

The QB position may be receiving a relatively unchanged % of that pie (I think its gone up actually, but its not relevant to the discussion) but the salaries of the top QBs - those pushing the salary increases - certainly have gone up. Dont need any major research on that one. Just have to read the headlines.

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Edited by Leader

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54 minutes ago, Leader said:

It's really a simple equation.

With players collectively getting 48% of a teams revenue in any given year - the money has to be distributed (positionally) somewhere.

The QB position may be receiving a relatively unchanged % of that pie (I think its gone up actually, but its not relevant to the discussion) but the salaries of the top QBs - those pushing the salary increases - certainly have gone up. Dont need any major research on that one. Just have to read the headlines.

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Again, you're just flat out wrong. It IS a really simple equation. It's pretty much the exact same % of the cap since the beginning of the cap. The reason the number is bigger is because the cap is getting bigger. Google the highest paid quarterback then google the cap for when they signed. Use the really simple equation. All of them are pretty much the exact same % of the cap.

Once/if slightly less than 20% of the cap equals 40 or 50 million the top QBs will absolutely get that. Why? Because the guys writing the checks for the last 25 years have decided that's the going value for the top QBs. 

The cap gets bigger and the QBs get paid "more". I really can't comprehend what's so hard to understand about that. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, wgbeethree said:

Again, you're just flat out wrong. It IS a really simple equation. It's pretty much the exact same % of the cap since the beginning of the cap. The reason the number is bigger is because the cap is getting bigger. Google the highest paid quarterback then google the cap for when they signed. Use the really simple equation. All of them are pretty much the exact same % of the cap.

Once/if slightly less than 20% of the cap equals 40 or 50 million the top QBs will absolutely get that. Why? Because the guys writing the checks for the last 25 years have decided that's the going value for the top QBs. 

The cap gets bigger and the QBs get paid "more". I really can't comprehend what's so hard to understand about that. 

Fine.

Now - lets advance the discussion beyond I'm wrong and you're right stupidity.

And lets answer the question - which is a personal one - to you the respondent :

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Do you - think an NFL QB is worth 40-50M per season - or will he max out salary-wise?

Edited by Leader

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6 minutes ago, Leader said:

Fine.

Now - lets advance the discussion beyond I'm wrong and you're right stupidity.

And lets answer the question - which is a personal one - to you the respondent :

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Do you - think an NFL QB is worth 40-50M per season - or will he max out salary-wise?

The easy answer is no. There's no such position beyond entry level jobs in America that are capped. Will the NBA ever cap what a center can make? Will MLB ever cap what a pitcher can make? Will the NHL ever cap what a goalie makes? Those are all finite positions when it comes to stats. No NBA player will ever average 50 points and 20 rebounds a game, a hockey goalie is always going to give up goals and lose games, pitchers have been in a similar realm statwise for awhile now. They'll all grow in salary with the cap, just like QB. It's honestly a weird thought to think they wouldn't.

As an account manager for a business would you not expect a raise after certain time periods with the company? Even if you keep the same job and same accounts, does anyone ever sign up for a job thinking, "they're offering 60k now, that's probably the max I'll ever make there even if I stay for 2 decades." No. You expect raises as your company prospers and also to adjust for cost of living.

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6 minutes ago, Leader said:

Fine.

Now - lets advance the discussion beyond I'm wrong and you're right stupidity.

And lets answer the question - which is a personal one - to you the respondent :

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Do you - think an NFL

The QB salary will likely not change as a percent of cap. It hasn't changed in 25 years and that should be enough to call a trend.  

So if your question is 'will NFL revenue continue to increase?' Then I would say yes, but at a slower degree. I think NFL has peaked and baseball and basketball are improving and gaining a bigger slice of the pie.

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1 hour ago, Leader said:

Fine.

Now - lets advance the discussion beyond I'm wrong and you're right stupidity.

And lets answer the question - which is a personal one - to you the respondent :

The question being posed was then and remains - will a QB ever max out salary-wise simply based on "the position" being "fixed" statistically? You cant get any more blood from the rock. They cant throw for more yards. They dont throw for more TDs - etc.

Put it in other terms - if for the next ten years, QB production mirrors that of the previous 10 years - they're statistically constant or static - will we still see our first 40 or 50M p/year QB?

If so, is it warranted and why?

Do you - think an NFL QB is worth 40-50M per season - or will he max out salary-wise?

Until the time that there are more than 32 guys who can play as a legitimate franchise QB, players at that position will be able to drive the price up.

The QB salary is based on importance of the position combined with scarcity.  

As an example, maybe Aaron Rodgers can't throw for more yards, but the alternatives certainly can throw for less.

 

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2 hours ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Until the time that there are more than 32 guys who can play as a legitimate franchise QB, players at that position will be able to drive the price up.

The QB salary is based on importance of the position combined with scarcity.  

As an example, maybe Aaron Rodgers can't throw for more yards, but the alternatives certainly can throw for less.

 

That's not how a bellcurve works. The talent for being an NFL QB is measured by the far right extremes of a bellcurve. Unless you think the talent curve is going to drastically shift, there will never be 32 guys capable of playing that well RELATIVE TO THEIR PEERS.

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The only thing that will lead to a shift in capital expenditure by percentage is adjusting positional value. Say from major rule changes, shifts in schemes, supply changes, roster construction changes, etc. 

There is clearly no "hard" set number for anything that has exponential growth. As @wgbeethree has stated, that is silly.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That's not how a bellcurve works. The talent for being an NFL QB is measured by the far right extremes of a bellcurve. Unless you think the talent curve is going to drastically shift, there will never be 32 guys capable of playing that well RELATIVE TO THEIR PEERS.

Correct.  

That is why the top QB's will always have the leverge to drive prices under the current rules.

Edited by Ragnar Danneskjold

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1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

The only thing that will lead to a shift in capital expenditure by percentage is adjusting positional value. Say from major rule changes, shifts in schemes, supply changes, roster construction changes, etc.

Good post.

The players of any particular team may collectively get 48% of that organizations revenue - as mandated by the CBA - but its the teams themselves that determine how that pie is divided up. 

QBs have been deemed most valuable - for any number of obvious reasons - but there are "market" considerations that affect that teams decision.

Is DAK worth 30M (?) based on past performance?}
Was Cousins worth his contract (?) - again based on past performance.

So production does weigh in - or become part of the calculus.

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

There is clearly no "hard" set number for anything that has exponential growth. As @wgbeethree has stated, that is silly.

I never proposed there to be a hard cap.

Rather - its my thinking that individual player production weighed against "market conditions" will put a cap on a given players salary increases. The simplest of calculations: "Do we think he's good enough (?) and worth it?" - the answer to which can differ widely from team to team - often times more indicative of their current cap (space) situation than player talent.

Again - in truth, you have few "elite" QBs - making the bulk of them "replaceable" - primarily by younger / cheaper talent.

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