Random Packer News & Notes

[MacReady]

Just now, deathstar said:

Mostly when it doesn’t fit someone’s argument.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, PFF gets paid for it.  There's value to it.  If there was no value to it, the NFL wouldn't support it, people wouldn't support it, and it wouldn't last long.  THERE ARE FAULTS WITH IT.  However, the faults are not in its ability to provide close to accurate comparisons. 

For example, if it's true that it uses only the TV broadcast, that's a serious issue.  I have never seen confirmation that it uses TV broadcasts; frankly, I don't believe it.  If it did only use the TV broadcast to make its grades, it would be laughed out of existence.  You can't tell me any site like that wouldn't use all-access at the least.  Especially when the NFL seems to work with them/use their research.  You always see NFL broadcasts using PFF scores when showing starting lineups. 

I also like it for its ability to compare players.  Like it might do a mediocre job of judging, but it judges all players the same and I don't think there's any bias.  If there was bias, the alleged GOAT Rodgers would have a higher rating than Tom Brady considering their statistical differences on the year.  So I think it's very useful for comparing players or groups. 

Half the things people say suck about PFF I don't think are true.  The only times anyone says anything bad about PFF is when it kills their argument.  I tend to have to agree with PFF since I use it frequently and don't want to be labeled a hypocrite.  I just hate it when everybody says our receiving corps sucks and then can't accept that our receiving corps is graded much closer to above average than below average, and yet when I bring that up everybody says PFF sucks. 

[VonKarman]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

The things people will argue about lol.

There's no way any of you know how they do it so you're all talking out of your .......

The stat exists, use it or don't.

There are certain limits such as the fps of the video they study that have a larger uncertainty of 0.01. Therefore they cannot give results with that level of accuracy. There are obviously other sources of uncertainty that we cannot account for since we do not know their measurement method, but that limit cannot be reduced and it will certainly be increased (even if it can be negligible).

[incognito_man]

The only potential value of those times is how they are relative to one another. And that's only if their methods are robust and consistent.

The absolute value of those numbers are probably worthless; the rankings might be meaningful depending on the repeatability of their methodology (which I suspect is also worthless considering the small rank deltas relative to the known global accuracy stack-up).

Signed,

A guy who has been fighting spacecraft sensor accuracy, precision and repeatability battles for the last 3 years.

[TheOnlyThing]

PFT out slandering poor Mac.

After the Packers fired Mike McCarthy during the 2018 season, it was assumed he’d capture one of the various vacancies that were destined to arise after the season ended. He didn’t.

It then was assumed that he’ll get one of the head-coaching vacancies that emerge in early 2020. As the end of the 2019 season approaches — and as teams that expect to have vacancies begin to quietly line up potential replacements — McCarthy’s name has not emerged in connection with any of the current or expected openings.

So it’s time for McCarthy to take matters into his own hands. And he is, launching a media tour aimed at showcasing his efforts to prepare for his next job, if there is a next job.

So will there be one? And if so, when? Last year, the Browns didn’t interview McCarthy, even though the Browns have three former Green Bay executives with positions of influence in the Cleveland front office: John Dorsey, Alonzo Highsmith, and Eliot Wolf.

McCarthy got no other serious sniffs in the last hiring cycle. Out of sight and out of mind (until very recently) for the past year, the question becomes whether he will get any sniffs in this hiring cycle.

He has a Super Bowl win on his resume, which obviously has value. And McCarthy’s record stands at 50 games over .500, at 135-85-2. Still, McCarthy has a reputation for underachieving, given that his quarterbacks were Brett Favre (for two years) and Aaron Rodgers (for the rest), and that from 2012 through 2018 McCarthy never got back to the Super Bowl. By the end, the team wasn’t winning, and the Packers had an unmistakable atmosphere of dysfunction.

Complicating matters for McCarthy is the fact that his replacement, Matt LaFleur, has won 10 of 13 games and currently has the Packers in the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

And so McCarthy is speaking to multiple media outlets. But his words aren’t moving the needle, other than to prompt someone to notice that he’s trying to move the needle as his next shot at getting a head-coaching job approaches.

If that opportunity were definitely coming, McCarthy wouldn’t be talking. He wouldn’t need to. It remains to be seen whether McCarthy’s decision to suddenly re-enter public life will kick-start his effort to become a head coach again.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/12/11/the-mike-mccarthy-redemption-tour-commences/

[VonKarman]

You know that they guy writing that is Florio, don't you? I wouldn't take any of his articles related to the Packers seriously.

[AlexGreen#20]

3 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again, PFF gets paid for it.  There's value to it.  If there was no value to it, the NFL wouldn't support it, people wouldn't support it, and it wouldn't last long.  THERE ARE FAULTS WITH IT.  However, the faults are not in its ability to provide close to accurate comparisons. 

For example, if it's true that it uses only the TV broadcast, that's a serious issue.  I have never seen confirmation that it uses TV broadcasts; frankly, I don't believe it.  If it did only use the TV broadcast to make its grades, it would be laughed out of existence.  You can't tell me any site like that wouldn't use all-access at the least.  Especially when the NFL seems to work with them/use their research.  You always see NFL broadcasts using PFF scores when showing starting lineups. 

I also like it for its ability to compare players.  Like it might do a mediocre job of judging, but it judges all players the same and I don't think there's any bias.  If there was bias, the alleged GOAT Rodgers would have a higher rating than Tom Brady considering their statistical differences on the year.  So I think it's very useful for comparing players or groups. 

Half the things people say suck about PFF I don't think are true.  The only times anyone says anything bad about PFF is when it kills their argument.  I tend to have to agree with PFF since I use it frequently and don't want to be labeled a hypocrite.  I just hate it when everybody says our receiving corps sucks and then can't accept that our receiving corps is graded much closer to above average than below average, and yet when I bring that up everybody says PFF sucks. 

The problem that exists is the incestuous nature of the NFL, NBC, and PFF.

NBC is the majority owner of PFF. Chris Collinsworth, the play by play lead on NBC is also a large minority owner. NBC has a billion+ dollar contract with the NFL. The NFL has focus tested and determined that fans like the PFF data on the NBC broadcast. 

In order to grant more legitimacy to the PFF numbers, PFF advertises that the NFL uses their data. Well sure, but there's no incentive for the NFL to deny this claim, nor is there an acknowledged extent to what information is used. For all we know, teams use it as a double check on their own internal missed tackle stats. But people choose to use their knowledge as gospel.

Like most things network/NFL run, there's an incentive for exaggerated reporting. If NBC Sports wants to run a story on Aaron Jones being a top 5 back, they can then use their own internal massaged data to cite that claim. 

To an even further extent, since NBC has forced PFF into their college/draft coverage, there's even further internal pressure to confirm their own predictions. 

What used to be an extremely complicated process has only become more so as the corporate politics have become involved.

[AlexGreen#20]

36 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

PFT out slandering poor Mac.

After the Packers fired Mike McCarthy during the 2018 season, it was assumed he’d capture one of the various vacancies that were destined to arise after the season ended. He didn’t.

It then was assumed that he’ll get one of the head-coaching vacancies that emerge in early 2020. As the end of the 2019 season approaches — and as teams that expect to have vacancies begin to quietly line up potential replacements — McCarthy’s name has not emerged in connection with any of the current or expected openings.

So it’s time for McCarthy to take matters into his own hands. And he is, launching a media tour aimed at showcasing his efforts to prepare for his next job, if there is a next job.

So will there be one? And if so, when? Last year, the Browns didn’t interview McCarthy, even though the Browns have three former Green Bay executives with positions of influence in the Cleveland front office: John Dorsey, Alonzo Highsmith, and Eliot Wolf.

McCarthy got no other serious sniffs in the last hiring cycle. Out of sight and out of mind (until very recently) for the past year, the question becomes whether he will get any sniffs in this hiring cycle.

He has a Super Bowl win on his resume, which obviously has value. And McCarthy’s record stands at 50 games over .500, at 135-85-2. Still, McCarthy has a reputation for underachieving, given that his quarterbacks were Brett Favre (for two years) and Aaron Rodgers (for the rest), and that from 2012 through 2018 McCarthy never got back to the Super Bowl. By the end, the team wasn’t winning, and the Packers had an unmistakable atmosphere of dysfunction.

Complicating matters for McCarthy is the fact that his replacement, Matt LaFleur, has won 10 of 13 games and currently has the Packers in the No. 2 seed in the NFC.

And so McCarthy is speaking to multiple media outlets. But his words aren’t moving the needle, other than to prompt someone to notice that he’s trying to move the needle as his next shot at getting a head-coaching job approaches.

If that opportunity were definitely coming, McCarthy wouldn’t be talking. He wouldn’t need to. It remains to be seen whether McCarthy’s decision to suddenly re-enter public life will kick-start his effort to become a head coach again.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/12/11/the-mike-mccarthy-redemption-tour-commences/

1. Did anybody think McCarthy was going to coach for free next year?

2. Who is leaking candidates names for coaching replacements with current coaches still employed?

3. Do we know that McCarthy called NFLN in order to start the random media coverage?

4. The Browns and McCarthy definitely talked. The expectation was that he had to keep Kitchens, which he did not want to do. 

5. Where is the idea that McCarthy got no serious interest coming from? Didn't he also talk with the Jets?

6. Why are you posting Florio? I thought we were all done with him after his "Aaron Rodgers steals purse of grandmother with cancer" story?

7. Why do you hate Thompson and McCarthy? Like 2/3 of your posts are about ripping on those dudes (and the other 1/3 is you hating on Martinez). Was it personal? Did you apply for a QC coach spot and get turned down? Are you Brett Favre?

[AlexGreen#20]

46 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

The only potential value of those times is how they are relative to one another. And that's only if their methods are robust and consistent.

The absolute value of those numbers are probably worthless; the rankings might be meaningful depending on the repeatability of their methodology (which I suspect is also worthless considering the small rank deltas relative to the known global accuracy stack-up).

Signed,

A guy who has been fighting spacecraft sensor accuracy, precision and repeatability battles for the last 3 years.

And that's only relevant to the extent of the actual data measurement, the data measurement itself is basically worthless to making any kind of conclusion when you consider how much if it is driven by play design and selection. A bubble screen is going to hold the ball way less than a deep drag.

Signed,

While not as impressive as Incog, A guy who does high speed scale and scan tunnel verifications for FedEx with only a Mechanical Engineering degree. 

[Packerraymond]

10 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

And that's only relevant to the extent of the actual data measurement, the data measurement itself is basically worthless to making any kind of conclusion when you consider how much if it is driven by play design and selection. A bubble screen is going to hold the ball way less than a deep drag.

Signed,

While not as impressive as Incog, A guy who does high speed scale and scan tunnel verifications for FedEx with only a Mechanical Engineering degree. 

Go be smart somewhere else.

Signed,

An a-hole on a football forum.

[Ragnar Danneskjold]

5 hours ago, Fl0nkerton said:

Anyone who looks at Pro Day #'s takes it with a grain of salt. Or should, at least.

Combine #'s are laser-timed iirc

I agree with this.  Pro day numbers are hand timed and should be subject to thoughtful evaluation.

Most fans/posters though will post/quote pro day numbers without considering the difference in the method used relative to the combine, and we don't call those numbers out in terms of reliability.

It begs the question though.  Average hold time for a QB doesn't really answer the question about if the ball is coming out in synch with the receiver, or if there is a tendency to have drive killing decision making to hold it on one play.

Rodgers has had games where the ball is coming out quickly, taking what is there or taking the designed play.  He has also had games with multiple drive killers where he doesn't get it out, and based on the frequency of those events they won't distort the average too much.

It would be more informative, presuming the data is reproducible(which is dubious IMO), to see the distribution curve--  does a QB have a disproportionate "tail" that would go along with holding the ball too long.

[gopackgo972]

 

 

[Sasquatch]

9 minutes ago, YaddaHolla said:

 

 

OBJ has a sports hernia that requires post-season surgery.  Doubt he’d be much help this season.

[FinneasGage]

28 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

OBJ has a sports hernia that requires post-season surgery.  Doubt he’d be much help this season.

the trade deadline already passed, there's rumors they're gonna move him over the offseason. 

[incognito_man]

OBJ probably would want to play for one of the elite QBs, TBH

[vegas492]

I'm down with OBJ if Rodgers restructures his deal to create space for him.  99.5% sure that would never happen.  But...it's fun to dream.