Random Packer News & Notes

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 minute ago, Cpdaly23 said:

I have a hard time believing that he’s going to view Denver, with potentially a new coach and no draft capital, as giving him a better chance to win than Green Bay, even with some cap casualties in 2022.

I don't think any of those three choices give Rodgers a better chance for a Superbowl than Green Bay. If he goes it will be a combination of several things.

The grass is greener elsewhere for him, maybe he gets more say in front office decisions.
The difficulty of keeping him with the Packers 2022 cap.
Differences with the Packers front office.

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 minutes ago, Leader said:

I wonder if they'll take a run at Hackett.

La Fleur has done so well in his first three years, it won't be long before guys like Stenavich, Hackett, Gray have people come knocking. The same might apply to Barry if he keeps fielding a high-performing defense.

[Cpdaly23]

2 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I don't think any of those three choices give Rodgers a better chance for a Superbowl than Green Bay. If he goes it will be a combination of several things.

The grass is greener elsewhere for him, maybe he gets more say in front office decisions.
The difficulty of keeping him with the Packers 2022 cap.
Differences with the Packers front office.

You are right, irreconcilable differences COULD be a reason he cites as wanting out.  But unless he’s lying about his experience this year (a distinct possibility given his recent track record), I just don’t think that’s likely.

The only way he is out IMO is if Gutekunst and Murphy are sick of him and decide they need to rebuild.  Otherwise, I think he gets an extension for 4-5 years.

[Cpdaly23]

11 minutes ago, Leader said:

Of the teams cited by 1265 - Cowheard touched on each.
PIT has OL problems and uncertainty what they're going to do with JuJu and Claypool.
NOLA has WR issues.
DEN has a decent roster - fairly young / set - so they they can afford the outlay to get AR. The "missing piece" is QB.

I understand- I just don’t agree that inserting Aaron Rodgers is a “missing piece” situation.  

Even WITH Rodgers, they are likely the 3rd best team in the AFC West.  Brady was smart in that he picked a team with a good defense in an awful division- Brady knows, based on his AFC East experience with NE, how much being in an awful division sets you up for postseason success.  
 

I just don’t see any options that are even comparable to what he has in GB.  What do I know though🤷🏻‍♂️

[Leader]

2 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said:

I understand- I just don’t agree that inserting Aaron Rodgers is a “missing piece” situation. Even WITH Rodgers, they are likely the 3rd best team in the AFC West.  Brady was smart in that he picked a team with a good defense in an awful division- Brady knows, based on his AFC East experience with NE, how much being in an awful division sets you up for postseason success.  I just don’t see any options that are even comparable to what he has in GB.  What do I know though🤷🏻‍♂️

You left out a fairly consequential factor: CAP space.

Spotrac currently lists DEN with 48.5M cap space in 2022.  Green Bay is -34M at this point.

I believe a large part of these QBs wanting to move (read: get out of their current deals) is to cash in on the new horizons the new TV contracts will offer. So - from that perspective - NOW is the time to ditch GB.

[squire12]

1 hour ago, Packerraymond said:

1 hour ago, craig said:

MLF talks about having "scripted" plays.  In past there used to be a story that sometimes Holmgren had like the first 15 plays "scripted", and that some of the more creative and uniquely effective stuff, would happen early.  

Is there anything to make of how bad the 1st-quarter offense has been this year? 

1. For example, does that reflect that MLF and Hackett are NOT good scriptwriters?  It's more when Rodgers and Dillon start improvising and going off-script that the offense starts to move?
2. Or, is the offense so RPO dictated by defensive fronts that "scripting early plays" has no place in today's game?  How can you even script a 1st play when you don't know how the defense will set up?  Or the 2nd or 3rd play if you don't know whether the first play will get 6 or will get stacked for no gain?  Or if the second play will be a sack or not?  
3. Probably that's always been true, and there never really was "first-15-scripted", those too were always very conditional and situational?  

I assume they basically have a bunch of "scripted" plays in the sense that each is situational with RPO.  You have a couple of short-yardage scripts, and Rodgers can RPO choose amongst them based on what he sees?  Maybe you have a dozen 1st-and-ten scripts, each with some RPO variance?  I assume that kind of adapt-and-respond stuff was true back in the Holmgren era too, it's not like defenses didn't shift or vary their personnel then just like they do now.  

Does very detailed "scripting" just run kinda contrary to the MLF philosophy, in which there are supposed to multiple options built into each play and each personnel package?  

But, why do they stink for 1st-quarter offense?

• MLF has bad plays planned?
• They are trying so hard to "establish the run" that in many first quarters, they're running themselves into some unfavorable down-and-distance?  (Not true on Sunday, I think first three plays were all passing plays, yes?)
• Rodgers is looking for too much at first, and isn't settling for short completions while looking for longer ones?  Maybe after getting pressured some, he adapts and settles for shorter ones?  
• Rodgers just takes a while to get warmed up, both accuracy-wise and reading-the-defense-wise and decision-making-wise?
• All the inexperienced fill-in linemen, it takes THEM a while to get warmed up and figure out what they can do?
• All the inexperienced fill-in linemen, it takes both Rodgers and MLF time to figure out which linemen are going to be outclassed and which types of plays can actually work?  
• All the inexperienced fill-in linemen, MLF is starting out by keeping so many TE's and backs in to help them at first that there aren't enough targets going out to get open?  (I don't think that was true on Sunday.). 
• There is no reason, it's just coincidence?
• Adams is so central to everything MLF and Rodgers wants to do, it takes a while to figure out how he's getting defended and what vulnerabilities their coverage approach is exposing?  

I'm just trying to understand why it's so hard in the first quarter to get the offense rolling.  

Expand  

Every football team scripts their first 10-15 plays, we had a script even in D3 ball. You watch the opposition on film and plan the plays you immediately want to run against their defense.

One penalty or sack or bad execution takes you off script as the script assumes yardage gained by each play.

We scored on like every first drive we in 2019 and 2020, this is what's called regression to the mean. LaFleur and Rodgers draw up a great script.

the last 6ish games GB has had funky practice issues with the WR and QB.  Toss in the OL shifting and the slow starts are likely to follow and continue.  

[craig]

24 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah .. definitely held the ball too long a few times,but the first 15 plays are supposed to be scripted.  It's not really a script if you have a ton of room for improvising. 

Yeah, this is kind of the complexity, and where "script" is kind of a misnomer.  IN theatre (non improv plays, at least), there's a script with detailed entrances and exits, and memorized lines in a specific sequence.   This is obviously very different, with bunches of contingencies built in.  Run vs pass depends on defensive set.  MVS is a deep option... *IF* he's both singled AND gets a step on his man right out of the snap.  Even then, back-shoulder or on-beyond?  Always an Adams option, but he's always responding to inside/outside leverage and zone spots, so there are contingencies in his flow, too.  And always the multiple checkdown options.  

I wonder if first-quarter Rodgers is a little slow to choose the checkdowns?  Or maybe there are just fewer checkdowns, because they want to protect the inexperienced linemen until they show they don't need so much help?  

[Arthur Penske]

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

They have executive of the year awards, too though.

Just don't see any coach that has overcome more adversity against a gauntlet schedule and is still the #1 seed than MLF. He should be the pretty clear front-runner IMO.

I would agree. Just saying it is impressive to consider that. 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Arthur Penske

[incognito_man]

50 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said:

I have a hard time believing that he’s going to view Denver, with potentially a new coach and no draft capital, as giving him a better chance to win than Green Bay, even with some cap casualties in 2022.

i have a hard time objectively viewing Denver as a better option. However, I don't have a hard time whatsoever envisioning a situation in which Rodgers is able to convince himself otherwise if given a prominent role in franchise decisions (like picking his own HC, for example).

[craig]

19 minutes ago, Leader said:

You left out a fairly consequential factor: CAP space.

Spotrac currently lists DEN with 48.5M cap space in 2022.  Green Bay is -34M at this point.

I believe a large part of these QBs wanting to move (read: get out of their current deals) is to cash in on the new horizons the new TV contracts will offer. So - from that perspective - NOW is the time to ditch GB.

Excellent points.  

I think one other factor that impacts his competitive chances is the adjustment period.  Rodgers took a while to get comfortable in MLF's offense.  Maybe that's a non-factor, and he can choose scheme that he likes, or just tell them what he likes and they'll accommodate.  But there is a chance that if he chooses to leave, that his first season will be impacted by some adjustment time.  

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, Arthur Penske said:

I would agree. Just saying it is impressive to consider that. 

BB is the GOAT, but that and the myopic view of "Mac Jones", and reliance on his bad performance and bad luck last year is skewing the perception of the job he's doing this year relative to MLF.

[Cpdaly23]

28 minutes ago, Leader said:

You left out a fairly consequential factor: CAP space.

Spotrac currently lists DEN with 48.5M cap space in 2022.  Green Bay is -34M at this point.

I believe a large part of these QBs wanting to move (read: get out of their current deals) is to cash in on the new horizons the new TV contracts will offer. So - from that perspective - NOW is the time to ditch GB.

Green Bay can pay him 40MM per with a 5 year extension- if he’s willing to sign an extension, Green Bay can easily make that happen.  

[Old Guy]

2 hours ago, Rainmaker90 said:

I say the same thing about Brady being the MVP. The guy is just destroying s*** teams. Half of his TDs are against Atlanta, Chicago , Miami . 
 

Hig biggest games , Dallas, LAR, Buffalo , Indy and NE 8 TDs 3 INTs 

 

Big deal. 

Good point!

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 minute ago, Cpdaly23 said:

Green Bay can pay him 40MM per with a 5 year extension- if he’s willing to sign an extension, Green Bay can easily make that happen.  

But then they probably lose most, or all of Jaire Alexander, Elgton Jenkins, Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage, basically the future of the Packers. If they keep Adams and Cobb as well as Rodgers, the cuts are even deeper. Green Bay CAN keep Rodgers, that's always possible if you want to seriously mortgage the future, but we cannot pretend there are no big consequences to keeping Rodgers, given the 2022 cap. One way or another next years cap is going to hurt Green Bay.

[Leader]

10 minutes ago, Cpdaly23 said:

Green Bay can pay him 40MM per with a 5 year extension- if he’s willing to sign an extension, Green Bay can easily make that happen.  

A variable that I dont think plays in DENs favor is - I believe - they're looking to sell the team.

New Owner. New GM? New HC? New coaching staff?

Other than that - they have an ascendant roster and cap space to work with.
I've no clue what AR does - but I wouldnt put it past him to leave for factors already stated.

Is it hard to leave an organization with the record of success GBs been able to put together? Yes - but that perception also hinges on how much you (as the player) feel directly responsible for that success.

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by Leader