Random Packer News & Notes

[Striker]

2 hours ago, Leader said:

Overheard a thing on First Take yesterday that I had to confirm by myself......and it checks out.

Targets in the GB passing game:
Davante - 169
Jones - 65
Lazard - 60
MVS - 55
Cobb - 39

THIS explains my thinking that the Packers lacked a #2 WR. That's a totally unbalanced passing attack. Be it due to WR talent or AR fixation on Davante - this (IMO) is an unacceptable and unsupportable system.

Bob Gray posted some stats awhile back that made it look like Lazard was producing at Jordy levels. I'm not questioning the stats - have no answer for them actually - but the eye test (and the above target stats) prove my point: We werent witnessing Davante and "Jordy" on the field at the same time.

We need to improve our passing game - and if that includes telling AR he needs to spread the ball around.....so be it. The above passing game isnt actually an attack - it's a DC's dream come true.

 

Looking at target share (far better than raw targets):

Kupp - 31.5 percent (next highest is Van Jefferson at 14.7 percent
Adams - 28.5 percent (next highest is a tie between Lazard and Jones at 11 percent)
Jefferson - 27.6 percent (next highest is Thielen at 15.7 percent) 
DJ Moore - 27.6 percent (next highest is Anderson at 18.4 percent)
DK Metcalf - 26.1 percent (next highest is Lockett at 21.6 percent)
Darnell Mooney - 25.8 percent (next highest is Kmet at 17.2 percent)
Diontae Johnson - 25.5 percent (next highest is Claypool at 15.8 percent)

Of course these numbers, as others have noted, are influenced by injuries (since MVS had 13 percent target share last year and fell to 10 percent this year).

You do also have teams like the Bengals where the target share is 23.1/19.8/16.9 between their top three targets. Or KC where the distribution is 23.6/19.9/12.3.

You can win by force feeding your 1A. And you can win with that balanced approach.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Striker

[Leader]

6 minutes ago, wgbeethree said:

 Whether he faces any charges or whether he is found guilty or not is another story but the actions he is being accused of absolutely includes multiple criminal offenses.

Well....I prefer to separate the criminals from the weirdos and perverts - with the dividing line being actual criminal charges being levied. If somebody's not criminally charged with something.....I dont call them a criminal - and to push it further - they're not an actual criminal until they're found guilty of the charge(s).

[dust247]

58 minutes ago, Leader said:

Andrew Brandt -   Lingering issue re Aaron/Packers:

All reports last year had him getting an opt-out after 2022 where he could be a FA and pick his team.
Is that still in there? If so, he would be the most valuable FA in NFL history, get way past $50M/year.
If not, what a massive win for GB.

There's no way the Packers extended Rodgers without taking out the opt-out after 2022. 

If Rodgers is a free agent after 2022, Gutey, Ball, and Murphy's tenure is over!

[R T]

1 hour ago, Old Guy said:

Yeah, I don't think so. Rumors around the combine trade deadline they turned down 3 - 1st from Miami and I believe Tua was thrown in. If Watson is cleared, the Texans are going to get a boatload of picks/players. 

There are people in media who think Denver stole Wilson from Seattle. Watson is going to fetch a big score. 

FYI, Carroll is not making these decisions and may not even be in the conversation until it's a done deal. Not at all surprised if he's not out the door soon himself. 

Are you drunk, nothing happens in Seattle without it being 100% Carroll's decision. 

[NFLGURU]

20 minutes ago, dust247 said:

There's no way the Packers extended Rodgers without taking out the opt-out after 2022. 

If Rodgers is a free agent after 2022, Gutey, Ball, and Murphy's tenure is over!

Hes probably locked in until he decides to hang it up.  The question is, when is that?  

It's going to be, is he coming back? stuff next offseason,and goes on every year until he retires. Prepare for Rodgers retirement drama every offseason.  

Edited March 9, 2022 by NFLGURU

[dust247]

5 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

Hes probably locked in until he decides to hang it up.  The question is, when is that?  

It's going to be, is he coming back? stuff next offseason,and goes on every year until he retires. Prepare for Rodgers retirement drama every offseason.  

McAfee said yesterday that retirement was a real option for A-Rod.

Does knowing that, change how you handle Jordan Love moving forward? 

[Pugger]

2 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Yeah, but did you know that Seattle traded Russell Wilson to Denver?  So if Love was traded to Seattle, he would be sitting the bench behind Drew Lock.

I know.   I misunderstood the original post.

[NFLGURU]

12 minutes ago, dust247 said:

McAfee said yesterday that retirement was a real option for A-Rod.

Does knowing that, change how you handle Jordan Love moving forward? 

Depends on what they think of him? I'd give him a full TC with Tom Clements and evaluate him after that.   You could keep him, or trade him next offseason depending on his progress.  He's making peanuts so give him a full look IMO. 

[ThatJerkDave]

52 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I know.   I misunderstood the original post.

Pugger, are you sure?  You do know that the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, right?

 

🤣

[Sandy]

1 hour ago, Striker said:

Looking at target share (far better than raw targets):

Kupp - 31.5 percent (next highest is Van Jefferson at 14.7 percent
Adams - 28.5 percent (next highest is a tie between Lazard and Jones at 11 percent)
Jefferson - 27.6 percent (next highest is Thielen at 15.7 percent) 
DJ Moore - 27.6 percent (next highest is Anderson at 18.4 percent)
DK Metcalf - 26.1 percent (next highest is Lockett at 21.6 percent)
Darnell Mooney - 25.8 percent (next highest is Kmet at 17.2 percent)
Diontae Johnson - 25.5 percent (next highest is Claypool at 15.8 percent)

Of course these numbers, as others have noted, are influenced by injuries (since MVS had 13 percent target share last year and fell to 10 percent this year).

You do also have teams like the Bengals where the target share is 23.1/19.8/16.9 between their top three targets. Or KC where the distribution is 23.6/19.9/12.3.

You can win by force feeding your 1A. And you can win with that balanced approach.

Thank you for compiling the data.  A couple of notes that admittedly could be my own confirmation bias that we need to add to the position:

1. Aside from the Rams and us, none of the top 6 teams were playoff teams. The number 7 team squeaked in. 

2. The Rams had this imbalance and then got OBJ. They saw the value in adding another receiver.

3. On this list, the Packers still had the highest difference between their 1st and 2nd options.

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, dust247 said:

There's no way the Packers extended Rodgers without taking out the opt-out after 2022. 

If Rodgers is a free agent after 2022, Gutey, Ball, and Murphy's tenure is over!

That is the whole point. There is no official word of any new contract. He said the 200 million report was false. He also said he didn't sign a new deal. He also said his back for THIS YEAR! 

I think we spread his salary out over 4 years to create cap space and that is all that was done. 

I agree if that is how it plays out, they should all be gone. 

[Old Guy]

1 hour ago, dust247 said:

McAfee said yesterday that retirement was a real option for A-Rod.

Does knowing that, change how you handle Jordan Love moving forward? 

McAfee knows that is what Rodgers told him. Rodgers was not retiring this year, no way no how. He'd be on the HOF stage with Brady (the headliner) and Ben. 

Rodgers want to be THE guy on that day. 

[vegas492]

I just need to vent.  God I hate this site and all of you.  I hate what you've done to me.  Except @Norm

Prior to coming here, I had a working knowledge of the cap and the NFL.  Working knowledge.  Minimal working knowledge.

After reading stuff from all of you and not just @CWood21 or @Packerraymond, I'm more educated concerning the salary cap and business functions of the NFL.

And now?  Now I despise talking to guys with no knowledge of how the NFL works, cap wise.  Guys who actually tell me that they hope we cut MVS and ESB.  And that we need to resign (not re-sign) both Smiths.  Also while telling me that we need to sign Amari Cooper in free agency, like the salary cap doesn't exist.

And these are guys posting garbage on other sites.

A big part of me just wants to send all of them to @incognito_man for the verbal beatdown that they deserve.

And?  While I'm on my rant?  NFL General.  My Lord.  I lost 20 IQ points just by going over there for 5 minutes.  And I see much of it has spilled over into our little sanctuary.

[PACKRULE]

13 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

McAfee knows that is what Rodgers told him. Rodgers was not retiring this year, no way no how. He'd be on the HOF stage with Brady (the headliner) and Ben. 

Rodgers want to be THE guy on that day. 

There is no way that is what the FO did. Gute learned under TT and they didn't just let BF walk. He was/is an asset they would have traded him had that been the only option. I firmly believe it's an extension of some kind and likely AR is just unhappy that the math came out and that he hasn't actually signed anything yet. He's just word smithing at this point. 

If out of some odd world left field odd ball chance they merely extended him at the same rate to get relief and let him walk whilst having to eat cap with no compensation yes all of the FO would need to be working elsewhere. 

[Striker]

8 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Thank you for compiling the data.  A couple of notes that admittedly could be my own confirmation bias that we need to add to the position:

1. Aside from the Rams and us, none of the top 6 teams were playoff teams. The number 7 team squeaked in. 

2. The Rams had this imbalance and then got OBJ. They saw the value in adding another receiver.

3. On this list, the Packers still had the highest difference between their 1st and 2nd options.

1. Of the playoff teams:

Arizona - Ertz (19), Kirk (17.4), Green (15.6), Moore (11) though it should be noted that Hopkins going down forced them to balance distribution

Buffalo - Diggs (25.2), Beasley (17.1), Sanders (11), Knox (10.8)

Cincinnati - Chase (23.1), Higgins (19.8), Boyd (16.9), Uzomah (11.4)

Dallas - Lamb (18.5), Schultz (16.1), Cooper (15.9), Elliott (10)

Green Bay - Adams (28.5), Jones (11), Lazard (10.1), MVS (9.3)

Indianapolis - Pittman (24.8), Pascal (13.2), Hines (10.9), Taylor (9.8)

Kansas City - Hill (23.6), Kelce (19.9), Hardman (12.3), Pringle (8.9)

LA Rams - Kupp (31.5), Van Jefferson (14.7), Higbee (14), OBJ (13.5)

Las Vegas - Renfrow (20.4), Waller (14.8), Jones (11.1), Jacobs (10.2)

New England - Meyers (23.6), Henry (14), Bourne (13.1), Agholor (12)

Pittsburgh - Johnson (25.5), Claypool (15.8), Harris (14.2), Freiermuth (11.9)

San Francisco - Samuel (23.5), Kittle (18.3), Aiyuk (16.3), Jennings (7.4)

Tampa Bay - Godwin (17.5), Evans (15.6), Gronkowski (12.2), Fournette (11.5)

Tennessee - Brown (19.6), Westbrook-Ikhine (10.7), Jones (9), Firskey (8) though Brown and Jones missed a good chunk of time.

So you had one of the most unbalanced teams and one of the most balanced teams make it through to the Super Bowl.

 

2. Adding OBJ didn't really change Kupp's target share since he was still seeing a 15+ percent more targets than Woods or Jefferson. It's probably a QB tendency thing more than anything.

 

3. By .8 percent. My guess is the Packers and Rams would be pretty even in terms of difference had MVS stayed healthy as he was averaging about a 14 percent target share including his glorified decoy/ineffective Week 17/18 games. He was averaging a 16 percent target share when healthy.