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35 minutes ago, cannondale said:

How do you project a guy with zero special traits ? Being a rookie is an outdated excuse. Make a real world argument how he is going to get separation. You can't throw him open or throw 50/50 balls. He needs to get real separation, and I'm not sure how he will accomplish that.

His body type is a special trait. The projection is that he's a unique guy who can both block in the slot and run more of the Cobb tree than a guy like Lazard. 

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11 hours ago, Gopackgonerd said:

I'm not going to believe it until I see it as well, but there is something to improving from the offseason training. Coach made a point where rookies don't really have an offseason to work on their crafts because of all the draft stuff taking up a majority of their time. We keep hearing confidence was an issue, so maybe that played into his mind where he wasn't playing as fast as he could because he wasn't confident in the system yet. And maybe he was truly out of shape a little. It's certainly intriguing hearing his issues last year have been worked on. Sometimes all it takes is a mentality change for a player and it flips that switch.

I think that will be part of it.  He came in and was buried on the depth chart.  This year along with being in shape could help him.  It's an opportunity to contribute, something he didn't see much of last year.  I'm not expecting a gamechanger, but a player who has improved.  I believe his confidence and comfort level in year 2 will be factors.

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

How do you project a guy with zero special traits ? Being a rookie is an outdated excuse. Make a real world argument how he is going to get separation. You can't throw him open or throw 50/50 balls. He needs to get real separation, and I'm not sure how he will accomplish that.

https://draftscout.com/dsprofile.php?PlayerId=82261&DraftYear=2011

Where is the special trait there? How did he make it this long in the league?

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15 hours ago, NFLGURU said:

I think Amari Rodgers will be the most improved player on the roster this year and maybe by a lot.  

Well, 8 receptions would double his rookie total, so he's got that going for him.

Tongue in cheek of course.

I hope he breaks out.  And it will be telling to see him in pre-season games to see if there is more speed and quickness there.

Because last year, the athlete didn't look too special at all.

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

How do you project a guy with zero special traits ? Being a rookie is an outdated excuse. Make a real world argument how he is going to get separation. You can't throw him open or throw 50/50 balls. He needs to get real separation, and I'm not sure how he will accomplish that.

I'm not on the Rodgers hype train, but if I'm being real here....

There is a chance that his intelligence helps him understand routes and defenses to find soft spots that will get him open.

An understanding of the offense, along with a full season of NFL training can lead to improved quickness and route running.

We do see that happen with WR's.

I can easily see him getting some better acceleration in and out of breaks, once he has learned how to properly run NFL routes.  I can easily see him understanding the offense better and not thinking as much.

These are not things that we haven't seen over the years.  They are very possible.

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11 minutes ago, NFLGURU said:

I think that will be part of it.  He came in and was buried on the depth chart.  This year along with being in shape could help him.  It's an opportunity to contribute, something he didn't see much of last year.  I'm not expecting a gamechanger, but a player who has improved.  I believe his confidence and comfort level in year 2 will be factors.

He was buried on the depth chart because like 8 of the other 10 WRs in camp were better than him.  He wasn't better than Malik Taylor, he wasn't better than Juwann Winfree, he wasn't better than Reggie Begelton, and he wasn't better than Devin Funchess.  

Can he be better? Yeah, it doesn't get much worse.  I'm not rooting against the guy, but I refuse to give him any excuses.  He is a lesser athlete than his peers, and has looked like a load of hot garbage in the few opportunities that he got.  

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49 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

He was buried on the depth chart because like 8 of the other 10 WRs in camp were better than him.  He wasn't better than Malik Taylor, he wasn't better than Juwann Winfree, he wasn't better than Reggie Begelton, and he wasn't better than Devin Funchess.  

Can he be better? Yeah, it doesn't get much worse.  I'm not rooting against the guy, but I refuse to give him any excuses.  He is a lesser athlete than his peers, and has looked like a load of hot garbage in the few opportunities that he got.  

Cant argue with any of that, although Rodgers had a RAS of 5.37, Cobb's was a dismal 3.65.   Let it play out.

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12 hours ago, Green19 said:

But the point is… of course he isn’t going to be Cobb. Cobb has how many years in the league and with Rodgers?

He was behind the 8 ball from jump. So he had few chances and I’m sure in those chances he was trying to milk it for every yard… and in doing so it looked like he was fighting it all year.

I believe the few snaps messed with his mind, and he pressed too much.

That he pressed, and after a life of usually being the best and perhaps smartest or close struggled with having handfuls of guys better and perhaps more playbook-smart, that's perfectly understandable.  Pretty rare for a rookie receiver to be comfortable and confident.  

But Vrable's point, which I support, is that it's the competitive NFL, and Cobb wasn't some impassable superstar.  Sure, Cobb's got the experience, but he's old and slow and has had multiple injuries, and it's a young-man's league.  Amari had opportunity to compete with and perhaps surpass Cobb.  He didn't.  

Cobb was a $3M cap hit last year, and will be $4M this year.  Prior to trade, few posters assumed Cobb was some excellent attractive target to try to acquire; many faulted the trade as lacking football merit, and being primarily a Rodgers-coddle.  

That Cobb was some high-end player who Amari had no chance to compete with, I don't think that was true.  I also believe coaches truly do value competition.  Amari had the opportunity to show himself to be the faster, quicker, more explosive playmaker and the better do-your-1/11th guy.  Given the challenges of being a rookie who doesn't know what's going on, it's no surprise that he couldn't.  

He'll have another opportunity this offseason.  

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

His body type is a special trait. The projection is that he's a unique guy who can both block in the slot and run more of the Cobb tree than a guy like Lazard. 

Agree.  Being short-and-strong literally is the trait. 

  • 2 of 10 Packer WR list heavier than Rodgers (Lazard, and Malik).   (Per packers-website, where listed weight are admittedly often grossly inaccurate!). 
  • Amari lists as 17 pounds bigger than Cobb, and heavier than supposedly-physical guys like Watkins, Watson, Winfree, etc..  
  • Amari at 5'9" and Cobb 5'10" are the only WR listing shorter than 6'1".  
  • That height/weight combo is a pad-level trait for blocking.  
  • There is a physics to stop-and-go redirection.  It's natural that short guys with short levers have capacity for quicker stop-and-go, cutting, redirecting momentum, accelerating from a stop.  For a 40-yard straightaway, it's hard for a 5'9" Amari to sprint with long-levered EQ.  But for short-area quickness and shiftiness, the short-levered guy has some physics advantages.  So I think being short could itself be a trait for a receiver.  
  • Obviously that was the hope.  A shifty, short-area-quickness guy who was still solid-strong enough to block.

I didn't observe much advantageous short-area quickness last year, as a punt returner.  And he never got the ball from scrimmage enough to show whether he's actually got any shake-and-bake elusiveness.  

To me, seems there's a good chance that he's just not quick enough, and won't have the catch radius or the hands or the pure speed to be very useful from scrimmage.  Likewise there's a chance that he'll be quicker and more decisive this year, and he'll get used and be pretty useful.  Who knows?  Let it play out and let competition settle the question.  

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I wonder how much practice and evaluation there is for a non-standard receiver like Amari?  Or like EQ last year?  

  1. I'm rounding off I'm sure, and looking at a 2019 spray chart.  But roughly, ~ 1/3 of Rodgers throws are behind the line, ~1/3 within 5 yards forward, and little more than ~1/3 exceed 5 yards downfield.  Really short stuff.  
  2. For do-your-1/11th, it seems several guys are largely tasked with hanging in to block; then hanging out around the line of scrimmage for a possible checkdown; and *IF* you hypothetically do get a pass, then to dart forward and elude tackles and make a 3-8 yard gain.  
  3. Sometimes a design, with blockers in front.  But more often just a contingency check.  This was routinely the EQ or Deguara task.  
  4. I wonder how much practice they do for that role?  And since part of the role is YAC and eluding tackle after the 1-yard pass, how can you evaluate how shifty and elusive a guy is if you never practice in pads with live tackling? 
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47 minutes ago, Leader said:

How about this? Wait till this year rolls around and actually have something to dissect? See how he does. I mean....hell. The guy had a less than stellar rookie year. It happens....a lot.   

 

I make this point every year after the draft.  Some guys jump right in, others take some time to acclimate, the season will tell no lies.   

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