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3 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

The chance of us competing in 2023 with a first year starter in Love is low. Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year so this isn't a knock on Love.

 

I wish people would stop saying this. First year starters tend to have a ton of success when good. Rodgers is more of an outlier in this stat.

The answer is, Love's first year will be competitive if he's good, and won't be competitive if he's bad. It's really that simple.

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4 hours ago, R T said:

You both missed the point. If you overspend as a football team or individuals in the real world, that spending will need to be accounted for at some point. Simply living will the idea that the cap will go up doesn't make it a level playing field for the future if a team has already used that 'pay raise' to pay the interest on bad credit card debt vs. teams that didn't mortgage their futures for the current moment.

Individuals end up in bankruptcy, NFL teams end up in a cap hell that keeps them from signing players in the future that they wish they were able to. Flippantly using 'the cap will go up every year' as an excuse to do bad contracts isn't going to end well. 

 

Yah I agree with this.  Unfortunately after running it back the last few years the bill is going to come due for the Pack.  They always were conservative until the last few years.  Get trying to chase a ring with Rodgers so not blaming management but yes the bill will come due.  Cap goes up so do player contracts.  So from an affordability perspective it really makes little difference.  I'm prepared for a couple of years of suckage as we get our house back in order.  Rodgers, Bak, and picking up Savage 5th year option I'd label all as bad contracts.  That's with the benefit of hinesight of course. 

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6 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

The chance of us competing in 2023 with a first year starter in Love is low. Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year so this isn't a knock on Love.

I'm not sure I'd agree with you.  They're going to go far as Jordan Love takes them, and they're not on some bad luck streak.  In Rodgers' first year as their starting QB, the Packers were a whopping -6 in close wins/losses plus their pythagorean wins was 8.92 so let's call that 9.  They were a ~9 win team that had some bad luck.  Compare that to Minnesota who won the division at 10 wins, and they were +1 in the close wins/losses and their pythagorean wins were 9.22 so let's call it a 9 win team.  Green Bay actually underperformed record wise.

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7 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

The chance of us competing in 2023 with a first year starter in Love is low. Rodgers was 6-10 in his first year so this isn't a knock on Love.

No it's not. The chance of us competing in 2023 with Love is really high and I promise you Vegas odds will reflect that if/when that happens. The rosters from Rodgers first year and the 2023 roster aren't comparable. Rodgers in his first year starting would have taken the 2023 roster to the playoffs.

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24 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

No it's not. The chance of us competing in 2023 with Love is really high and I promise you Vegas odds will reflect that if/when that happens. The rosters from Rodgers first year and the 2023 roster aren't comparable. Rodgers in his first year starting would have taken the 2023 roster to the playoffs.

Love is a complete unknown.  He'll be a first year starter and I'm sure we'll endure some growing pains.  Guess this all depends on what your definition is of compete.  If you are talking a championship run I'd have to disagree.  Don't believe it's in the cards for next year.  As far as Vegas odds being objective don't think starting Love over Rodgers will move the needle much one way or the other. We have an easier schedule this year so with Love think it's a 8-9 or 9-8 team.  

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10 hours ago, squire12 said:

5 of the top 6 missed the playoffs

3 of the top 5 teams with the best WR duo's missed the playoffs
3 of the top 5 teams with the best defences (yards per game) missed the playoffs
3 of the top 5 teams with the highest number of interceptions missed the playoffs
5 of the top 8 teams for most sacks missed the playoffs

BUT 
The top 5 teams which had a QB that threw for the most yards, all made the playoffs!!!!

There you go, be average at every position group, just make sure you got a QB that can throw it for a lot = success

My real take though, keep talent whenever and where ever you got talent e.g. Jones. Only reason I want to trade Rodgers now and not last year, is his talent is in decline plus the opportunity cost of losing Love and what he can possibly provide is too great to pass up now

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1 hour ago, Scoremore said:

Love is a complete unknown.  He'll be a first year starter and I'm sure we'll endure some growing pains.  Guess this all depends on what your definition is of compete.  If you are talking a championship run I'd have to disagree.  Don't believe it's in the cards for next year.  As far as Vegas odds being objective don't think starting Love over Rodgers will move the needle much one way or the other. We have an easier schedule this year so with Love think it's a 8-9 or 9-8 team.  

I really think the progression of this offense will depend on the development of Watson, Doubs, and to a lesser extent Toure.  Both Watson and Doubs had pretty good seasons, for rookies.  But they both also missed multiple games, and had multiple games with 20 or fewer yards.  Given more experience and better injury luck, we probably have two good players.    If they do the work and get better, the Packers will have a much more consistent air attack.  If they don't, the offense will continue to struggle.  We probably also need to find a new possession WR or TE, who isn't really explosive, but will get the first down yardage.  Not saying these guys are easy to find, but they can be found at almost any point of the draft, or even as UDFA as Allen Lazard has shown.

I also think that the offensive line will be better this season simply because of experience and availability.  We have Bakhtiari and Jenkins after their recoveries and bumps in the road from them.  Tom, Myers, JRJ all have more experience.  As does Nijman at the RT spot.  We also have the lotto shots of Newman, Jones, Walker, Tenuta, and Rhyan all with a full year with this staff and knowing what they need to do better (two for Newman).  The plan at OL was not good to start the season.

If these pieces fall in line, I think that with a healthy Rodgers, or a dialed in Love, this team can compete for a playoff spot.  And that is the first step to winning a championship, make the tournament.  

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I also want to add, it is very surprising to me all the negative reactions to Aaron Jones.  I am firmly in the don't pay RBs camp.  But guys that are as good as Aaron Jones don't grow on trees.  If it were easy to find one, we would have already replaced him.  I didn't like the 20 million dollar cap hit.  I still am not a huge fan of the 8 million cap hit he has this season.  But he has produced ever since he was drafted, and it is very likely that he produces again this season.  It isn't like they are paying me that money.

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