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Acme Packing - Success rate of finding a pass catcher is better in the NFL Draft than in free agency

At the NFL combine earlier this year, Cardinals general manager Steve Keim said “any contract that’s been over $5 million the last 10 years has really had a success rate of about 40%.” Keim didn’t cite a specific data set, but teams do these kinds of studies all the time to identify trends and theoretically make better decisions. The recent free agent classes tell a story that matches what he’s saying.

In 2019, 10 receivers signed for $5 million or more AAV in free agency and only four posted a Pro Football Focus grade above 70. In 2018, there were 13 WRs who signed for $5 million AAV or more, and again a paltry four posted a PFF grade of 70 or higher. In fact, barely half (7) even fell inside the top-90 graded WRs that season. To put it more plainly, over the last two offseasons, receiver hit rates in free agency have been dreadful, even below the 40% Keim suggests for all free agents.

The idea of signing veterans because they’re “proven” is demonstrably foolish. Particularly in the case of receivers, the draft offers a more reliable path to success.

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1 minute ago, Golfman said:

Not unless his asking price came down significantly. Guy ain't worth what it was reported he was asking. 

Apparently his asking price isnt being met. Whatever final deal he gets I've no clue and honestly dont care. I trust Gute / Russ to make a deal we can live with. Our caps been well managed for some time now. The people at the top have a clue.

I would like his talent on the field for us. Thats it. 

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Zach Kruse -   Packers remaining free agents:

WR Geronimo Allison (UFA)
CB Tramon Williams (UFA)
OT Jared Veldheer (UFA)
RB Tyler Ervin (UFA)
OT Jason Spriggs (UFA)
WR Ryan Grant (UFA)
DB Ibraheim Campbell (UFA)
FB Malcolm Johnson (RFA)

Edited by Leader
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PackersWire -  Daniel Jeremiah lists Packers as best team fit for QB prospect Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers have at least a few more seasons of Aaron Rodgers leading the team at quarterback, but the time to start planning for the future at the position is right around the corner.

Here’s what Jeremiah had to say about Love:

I won’t be shocked if Love goes in the top 10. I also won’t be surprised if he falls to the bottom of the first round. Grades are all over the place on the Utah State product. He is the most talented natural thrower in the entire draft. However, due to a variety of circumstances (losing a number of starters, dealing with a new coaching staff and scheme, etc.) his play dramatically fell off this past season. He will need some time to sit and develop, but the payoff could be huge.

The biggest argument against drafting Love is that the Packers need to maximize the talent around Rodgers at the current moment, providing him with the tools necessary to make another serious run at a Super Bowl. There also are financial arguments, given the huge advantage of building a team with a quarterback on a rookie contract.

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2 hours ago, Leader said:

PackersWire -  Daniel Jeremiah lists Packers as best team fit for QB prospect Jordan Love

The Green Bay Packers have at least a few more seasons of Aaron Rodgers leading the team at quarterback, but the time to start planning for the future at the position is right around the corner.

Here’s what Jeremiah had to say about Love:

I won’t be shocked if Love goes in the top 10. I also won’t be surprised if he falls to the bottom of the first round. Grades are all over the place on the Utah State product. He is the most talented natural thrower in the entire draft. However, due to a variety of circumstances (losing a number of starters, dealing with a new coaching staff and scheme, etc.) his play dramatically fell off this past season. He will need some time to sit and develop, but the payoff could be huge.

The biggest argument against drafting Love is that the Packers need to maximize the talent around Rodgers at the current moment, providing him with the tools necessary to make another serious run at a Super Bowl. There also are financial arguments, given the huge advantage of building a team with a quarterback on a rookie contract.

If he's there at #30 I'd take him.  Too good of a prospect to pass on in my opinion.  I don't think the 30th pick in the draft is going to push us over the top when it comes to getting to the super bowl, so think about the future and secure the heir to Aaron Rodgers. 

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Is Love significantly better than the QB we'd be able to grab at #30 or any other 1st round slot in a typical year? Are we just always going to talk about taking a QB with our first pick until Rodgers retires, or is this there something special/remarkable about this guy?

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18 minutes ago, Lodestar said:

Is Love significantly better than the QB we'd be able to grab at #30 or any other 1st round slot in a typical year? Are we just always going to talk about taking a QB with our first pick until Rodgers retires, or is this there something special/remarkable about this guy?

No

Yes

No

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3 hours ago, Lodestar said:

Is Love significantly better than the QB we'd be able to grab at #30 or any other 1st round slot in a typical year? Are we just always going to talk about taking a QB with our first pick until Rodgers retires, or is this there something special/remarkable about this guy?

#1 I'd say yes .. Love is thought to be a potential top 10 draft pick this year.  The chance of him falling to #30 is slim, so yes he's much better than the typical QB prospect you would find at #30. 

#2  No, I think Gute seriously would like to take a QB prospect fairly high at some point. Many think he was going to pull the trigger on drew lock last year, but the broncos traded up and took him in front of the Packers. 

#3. Yes, the guy has top 10 potential and is not chopped liver.  Has great size and a cannon for an arm. 

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*from @Leader

Zach Kruse -   Packers remaining free agents:

WR Geronimo Allison (UFA) - no
CB Tramon Williams (UFA) - no
OT Jared Veldheer (UFA) - I hope so
RB Tyler Ervin (UFA) - I hope so
OT Jason Spriggs (UFA) - probably
WR Ryan Grant (UFA) - no
DB Ibraheim Campbell (UFA) - I hope not
FB Malcolm Johnson (RFA) - probably

3 hours ago, Lodestar said:

Is Love significantly better than the QB we'd be able to grab at #30 or any other 1st round slot in a typical year? Are we just always going to talk about taking a QB with our first pick until Rodgers retires, or is this there something special/remarkable about this guy?

I think he's the most overhyped player in this year's class. He screams Paxton Lynch to me.

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