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32 minutes ago, spilltray said:

well I believe stadium revenue has never been counted. I easily could be mistaken, but I believe the cap is a % of joint revenue which is essentially TV+merch+a few other relatively minor odds and ends. If say merch sales were cut drastically, both the owners and players would eat an equal portion of that loss.

I'll gladly admit I'm FAR from a CBA expert. Literally know next to nothing about it other than the very obvious well reported parts. Mostly the percentages but not the details of what they entail. 

Recently read an article I don't remember enough about to quote other than that if they go by the letter of the law/contract the salary cap would be about half of what it is currently next year. Why exactly that is I couldn't tell you but spectatorless games would be the most obvious reason IMO.

Again I just can't see a way where the owners could in good faith not just have to eat a season of "loss". You literally can't have a season where you have to cut almost every veteran and then go back to "normal" a year later. 

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Stadium and local revenue has always been a part of the CBA and revenue sharing, however, the local teams keep a larger percentage of those monies
That's why GB is investing in Titletown District, both because they get to keep a bigger chunk of the gameday money, but they also get to keep cash from concerts, Lodge Kohler, Hinterland Brewery, new townhouses/apartments etc.

3 main buckets that feed into the salary cap calculation:

Media — Revenue the NFL earns by selling the rights to broadcast games on television and radio. Currently the NFL has television broadcast agreements with NBC, CBS, FOX, and ESPN. The right to operate Sunday Ticket, which allows subscribers to watch out-of-market games, is held by Direct TV. Radio rights are held by Westwood Media and SiriusXM. The NFL also receives nominal payments from the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB) for the re-transmission of certain games.
Add streaming rights to this going forward

NFL Ventures, L.P. — Income generated via the NFL corporate entity NFL Ventures, L.P. This entity is responsible for all NFL revenue generated at the national level, excluding TV and radio broadcasting revenue. This bucket includes revenue generated by the NFL Network, sponsorship, licensing, NFL productions, and miscellaneous smaller revenue sources.

Local — Local revenue generated by individual teams via gate receipts, luxury box sales, concessions, parking, local sponsorship and advertising, and any other team-generated revenue. Add in-stadium gambling revenue to this in the future

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3 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

...Recently read an article I don't remember enough about to quote other than that if they go by the letter of the law/contract the salary cap would be about half of what it is currently next year. Why exactly that is I couldn't tell you but spectatorless games would be the most obvious reason IMO....

Thanks, wgbee.  This gets to the question.  How much of revenue is generated by stadium revenue that will be lost in a spectatorless season?  And what is the league and union going to agree to, in order to accommodate in terms of cap?  

In the baseball context, I recently saw a note that for the Chicago Cubs, they estimate ~70% of their revenue comes from game-day stadium-related revenue.  

I assume for NFL the media aspect makes up a much larger fraction.  

For cap, is it normally based off of just the preceding season, or over a 3 year average or something?  It would seem that a good cba should have included some contingencies and exception-allowances for a catastrophe like this.  

As you say, the owners will largely need to eat a lot of the losses.  Salaried vets obviously won't want to all get cut, and I don't imagine owners will want to destroy good teams and destroy the game, either.  

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I think it gets a bit murky with how much each team takes in for revenue with local tickets/parking, merchandise, concessions, etc.  Been an issue with the CBA for a few years as NFLPA feels the owners are "hiding" revenue.  

I don't think the cap can go down much without significantly affecting a lot of teams and players in a negative way.  Both sides would have a vested interest in keeping the cap at least flat.  pending FA don't want to go into their FA offseason where there is a significant reduction in the money and teams that can pursue them.  Teams/owners don't want to have to cut key players to get under the cap and risk losing them to other teams on a free market.  

Might be a way for both sides to agree to "borrow" cap space (expected) from future years to bridge the 2021 season.

Keep the cap at $198M for 2020 instead of dropping it by $30M.  That gets offset by smaller increases in the cap in the future years....2022, 2023, etc.  

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16 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Might be a way for both sides to agree to "borrow" cap space (expected) from future years to bridge the 2021 season.

nailed it.
And the owners know the new TV deals + steaming + gambling will provide plenty of future cap to cover the borrowed space from 2021

 

18 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I think it gets a bit murky with how much each team takes in for revenue with local tickets/parking, merchandise, concessions, etc.  Been an issue with the CBA for a few years as NFLPA feels the owners are "hiding" revenue.  

yes indeed. And the NFLPA hires forensic accountants to go through all of it with a fine tooth comb.
After the 2011 CBA, they "found" an additional $2 million / team in cap space that the owners were hiding via Stadium Improvement Funds that should have been a part of the revenue split with players

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17 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Aren't the Packers' books open? 

They are open and audited. And sometimes there are other info leaks when a team is sold or a stadium is publicly financed
But with 100's of line items and each one containing different components...some things can be hidden from non-experts. The audits confirm the numbers are correct from a business and regulatory view, but the NFLPA accountants knows what should/shouldn't be included for revenue sharing purposes

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CBS Sports HQ -   Top 10 Defensive Linemen in the NFL (According to  Ryan Wilson CBS)

1. Aaron Donald
2. Chris Jones
3. Kenny Clark
4. Grady Jarrett
5. Fletcher Cox
6. DeForest Buckner
7. Cam Heyward
8. Calais Campbell
9. J.J. Watt
10. Javon Hargrave

 

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Aaron Donald's lowest sack total is 9 in a season.  High of 20.5.  72 sacks in 6 years.

Chris Jones has 33 sacks in 4 seasons.  Low of 2 sacks as a rookie.  High of 15.5.

Grady Jarrett has 21.5 sacks in 5 seasons.  Low of 1 as a rookie.  High of 7.5.

Cox has 48 sacks in 8 seasons.  Low of 3.  High of 10.5.

Buckner has 28.5 sacks in 4 seasons.  Low of 3, high of 12.

Heyward has 54 sacks in 9 seasons.  Low of 1 as a rookie.  High of 12.

Watt has 96 sacks in 9 years.  Low of 0 and 1.5 (injuries) high of 20.5 (twice).

Hargrove has 14.5 sacks in 4 years.  Low of 2, high of 6.5.

Now...Clark has 16.5 sacks in 4 years.  Low of 0 (rookie), high of 6.

Kudos to Ryan Wilson for factoring in run defense in those rankings.  Clark's a beast, no doubt, even if his sack totals aren't outstanding.  (Same to Hargrove and Jarrett).

And....on that list, guess who is the youngest?

 

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Rachel Hopmayer -  Mayor of Green Bay wrote a letter to POTUS ahead of his visit tomorrow: "I hope your town hall event is a legitimate opportunity for you to listen and learn from all members of this community, including those who have been left out of your vision of America."

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15 minutes ago, Leader said:

Zach Kruse -   Let's say the Packers find a way to re-sign David Bakhtiari and Kenny Clark, and they also find a way to re-sign one of Aaron Jones, Kevin King and Corey Linsley. Who do you pick?

We are in good cap shape to re-sign all of them if we wanted to really with $30mil available in 2021 and $100m in 2022. The hits in Year 1 would just have to be low, which is very doable. More the question is do you want to give a long contract to a 29 year old OT and a 30 year old Centre?  Kenny is a no brainier. Kevin will probably want $14m a season and you have to see if he is worth it and especially as Jaire will be a FA in 2021 which will require some serious dollars also and if you want to tie up a lot of money in both CBs? Aaron is a question of what he sees his market value at? Is it $8-10m a season or is it $14m+? That is a tough choice as he is a legit weapon. 

In my mind if Bakh takes a three year extension at around $45 over 3 years that is cool.
Kenny 4 year extension at $72m.
KK I would wait till the end of the season, see how he plays, if he would take $12m a year do it!
Aaron, if he doesn't want to be paid like a top 4 running back, I'm cool with the deal. David Johnson the 4th highest paid running back currently averages $13m a season and Austin Ekeler is the 7th highest paid RB at $6m average per season. If Aaron Jones took just under $10m a season, i.e. split the difference between the 4th and the 7th, he'd be paid like a top 5 RB and that would be good for both sides.

Another name to consider in the 'who do you keep' category is Devin Funchess. IF he plays like a true #2 he will want paying too!!!

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