Random Packer News & Notes

[craig]

4 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

...The signing of Campbell seems to sum up the new extreme really.  We were probably OK at linebacker but signed another guy who may be depth and stuck most of the money into the 2022 cap.

To me, the only way it makes sense is if they aren't planning on being competitive in 2022 ...

 

Mike, I may be misremembering, but I thought Campbell will be $0.25M for 2022?  That will be 0.1% of the 2022 cap.  I realize every 0.1% adds up, but that seems like such a teensy impact.  I realize you get ten of those and it can add up to 1%.  But the Campbell deal seems **so** super cheap that I can't get too faulty about it.  

And yeah, I'm kinda naively respectful of Gute/MLF's ability to think about their team.  So I kind of blindly trust that they don't think the $0.25M in 2022 is going to be much of a game-changer.  AND I'm kind of blindly trusting that their scouting that Campbell has some qualities that improve the flexibility of their ILB room for game-plan matchups.  

Certainly part of their thinking that it won't compromise 2022 and beyond may hypothetically reflect their thinking re Rodgers.  So sure, maybe a decision like that may as you suggest hypothetically manifest that they at least consider the possibility of a 2022 without Rodgers, which could free up a whole bunch of 0.1% hits.  

Edited June 13, 2021 by craig

[Brit Pack]

For me the Adams thing is very much hitched to who your QB is and what you want to do offensively.

IF Rodgers is back this season (which I do see) and he balls again, as much as it is said it isn't, him and Adams futures are tied. If you are keeping Rodgers around longer then you most likely want to redo his contract after this season and lower his cap hit in 2022 and you want to retain Adams as well and basically pair those guys for the following three years. 

IF Rodgers ain't back this year, or there is an agreement to trade after 2021 or he don't play great in 2021, so basically Rodgers is gone, then you might want to cut strings with Adams too and invest that cash into younger and cheaper options at WR in FA and also use that money to retain your own in Tonyan and MVS or Funchess (obviously depends how he plays). The FA options out there who would probably be around half the price AAV of what Adams would command are players like: Ju Ju, Gallop, DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton, Godwin. 

Cap for me is sorted in 2022 by dealing with Rodgers primarily, extending Z Smith and Jaire to lower their 2022 salaries, cutting Preston, turning 2022 salary into signing bonus for the Bahk and Kenny deals . Lowry (less so) Amos and Turner could be offered new deals to lower hits in 2022 as well.

[R T]

1 hour ago, craig said:

Mike, I may be misremembering, but I thought Campbell will be $0.25M for 2022?  That will be 0.1% of the 2022 cap.  I realize every 0.1% adds up, but that seems like such a teensy impact.  I realize you get ten of those and it can add up to 1%.  But the Campbell deal seems **so** super cheap that I can't get too faulty about it.  

And yeah, I'm kinda naively respectful of Gute/MLF's ability to think about their team.  So I kind of blindly trust that they don't think the $0.25M in 2022 is going to be much of a game-changer.  AND I'm kind of blindly trusting that their scouting that Campbell has some qualities that improve the flexibility of their ILB room for game-plan matchups.  

Certainly part of their thinking that it won't compromise 2022 and beyond may hypothetically reflect their thinking re Rodgers.  So sure, maybe a decision like that may as you suggest hypothetically manifest that they at least consider the possibility of a 2022 without Rodgers, which could free up a whole bunch of 0.1% hits.  

If Campbell is not signed to a extension after the season, his 2022 cap hit is 808K.

[R T]

49 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

For me the Adams thing is very much hitched to who your QB is and what you want to do offensively.

IF Rodgers is back this season (which I do see) and he balls again, as much as it is said it isn't, him and Adams futures are tied. If you are keeping Rodgers around longer then you most likely want to redo his contract after this season and lower his cap hit in 2022 and you want to retain Adams as well and basically pair those guys for the following three years. 

IF Rodgers ain't back this year, or there is an agreement to trade after 2021 or he don't play great in 2021, so basically Rodgers is gone, then you might want to cut strings with Adams too and invest that cash into younger and cheaper options at WR in FA and also use that money to retain your own in Tonyan and MVS or Funchess (obviously depends how he plays). The FA options out there who would probably be around half the price AAV of what Adams would command are players like: Ju Ju, Gallop, DJ Chark, Courtland Sutton, Godwin. 

Cap for me is sorted in 2022 by dealing with Rodgers primarily, extending Z Smith and Jaire to lower their 2022 salaries, cutting Preston, turning 2022 salary into signing bonus for the Bahk and Kenny deals . Lowry (less so) Amos and Turner could be offered new deals to lower hits in 2022 as well.

I don't believe Ball and Gutes have ever planned on re-sign Adams after this season. He is probably not MLF's ideal type of WR and he isn't worth eating up 20-25M in cap a year regardless of the Packers salary cap health. They now just have a built in excuse for not re-signing him is all. Doubt they will have any interest in pushing money down the road with any deal come next year either, especially Bakhtiari's deal. 

[Old Guy]

38 minutes ago, R T said:

I don't believe Ball and Gutes have ever planned on re-sign Adams after this season. He is probably not MLF's ideal type of WR and he isn't worth eating up 20-25M in cap a year regardless of the Packers salary cap health. They now just have a built in excuse for not re-signing him is all. Doubt they will have any interest in pushing money down the road with any deal come next year either, especially Bakhtiari's deal. 

Pretty sure Davante Adams is the kind of WR that 32 head coaches would like on their team. The caveat is can theyf/we afford him? 

 

Edited June 14, 2021 by Old Guy

[R T]

2 minutes ago, Old Guy said:

Pretty sure Davante Adams is the kind of WR that 32 head coaches would like on their team. The caveat is can they afford him? 

 

I said he probably was not MLF's ideal type. Sure 32 coaches could find a way to use him, but that doesn't mean 32 teams have interest in paying him top dollar on the open market and neither do the Packers. Big difference.      

[craig]

3 hours ago, R T said:

If Campbell is not signed to a extension after the season, his 2022 cap hit is 808K.

Thanks for clarification.  Helpful. 

[Norm]

3 hours ago, R T said:

I don't believe Ball and Gutes have ever planned on re-sign Adams after this season. He is probably not MLF's ideal type of WR and he isn't worth eating up 20-25M in cap a year regardless of the Packers salary cap health. They now just have a built in excuse for not re-signing him is all. Doubt they will have any interest in pushing money down the road with any deal come next year either, especially Bakhtiari's deal. 

Okay you got me, why is he not ideal for MLF I guess it's my question?

[NFLGURU]

The reason to keep Adams is he can be a crutch for Loves development.  Having a top go to guy can ease Loves critical transition into the NFL.  

Can I see them not signing Adams.  Yes, but its not like we have a dependable go to guy in the wings.  Maybe Amari Rodgers?, Tonyan? 

A lot will be riding on Loves development, and they'll want to surround Love with the best cast they can.  Adams cost and desire to stay might say otherwise, but I think they will try.

 

[R T]

29 minutes ago, Norm said:

Okay you got me, why is he not ideal for MLF I guess it's my question?

MLF wants big, physical WR who excel at blocking. His comments about Amari Rodgers after the draft were another of many telling examples from MLF in what he wants for his offense. In talking about Rodgers, he said for the running game to work to it's best the WR's need to be able to root out the CB or S and Rodgers has that as part of his game. Their is a reason that every WR that has been added since MLF has taken over is a big physical guy. Lazard, MVS, ESB, Funchess, even Taylor is 220 pounds. Go look at the Titans, Rams and 49er's rosters and you will see a similar group of WR's because that offense needs its WR's to block to work. As for Adams, the next time he 'roots out a CB or S' will be the first time.  

[Norm]

1 hour ago, R T said:

MLF wants big, physical WR who excel at blocking. His comments about Amari Rodgers after the draft were another of many telling examples from MLF in what he wants for his offense. In talking about Rodgers, he said for the running game to work to it's best the WR's need to be able to root out the CB or S and Rodgers has that as part of his game. Their is a reason that every WR that has been added since MLF has taken over is a big physical guy. Lazard, MVS, ESB, Funchess, even Taylor is 220 pounds. Go look at the Titans, Rams and 49er's rosters and you will see a similar group of WR's because that offense needs its WR's to block to work. As for Adams, the next time he 'roots out a CB or S' will be the first time.  

I'm pretty confident that's not the only body type he wants though. And it's not like Adams can't block at all and isn't physical...

I'd be pretty shocked if they just let him walk. 

[VonKarman]

Personally, if we had enough space (which I'm not sure we would), I'd use the tag on Adams in 2022 and maybe 2023.

[mikemike778]

8 hours ago, R T said:

If Campbell is not signed to a extension after the season, his 2022 cap hit is 808K.

 

Yep they have loads of void years so 800k of his contract is essentially allocated as dead money in 2022. Appreciate its only 800k (which the no shows in OTAs may pay for) but they are doing this over and over again so it does look like they have written off 2022 as a non-year.

Or Gutey is planning on retiring. Let someone else pay the bills

[mikemike778]

2 hours ago, VonKarman said:

Personally, if we had enough space (which I'm not sure we would), I'd use the tag on Adams in 2022 and maybe 2023.

The issue is that its 2022 where the cap nightmare seems to hit.

Really the only way to sign him would be the opposite of this - a neglible cap hit in 2022 then crazy hits in 2023 and beyond and just hope the cap rises to extreme levels.

Would need to ask the cap experts, how much cap we could feasibly kick from 2022 to 2023 to franchise Adams.  

I just think once Rodgers leaves, its best to clean up the cap for good no more kicking it down the road - that made sense when you playing with a closing Rodgers window but after that its best to just clean it up. Which probably means Adams walking, probably both Smiths being cut and quite a bit more

[mikemike778]

9 hours ago, Brit Pack said:

Cap for me is sorted in 2022 by dealing with Rodgers primarily, extending Z Smith and Jaire to lower their 2022 salaries, cutting Preston, turning 2022 salary into signing bonus for the Bahk and Kenny deals . Lowry (less so) Amos and Turner could be offered new deals to lower hits in 2022 as well.

So basically kick it into the future and worry about it then. 

We need to appreciate the scale of it. We are about 38m over the maximum cap with that figure likely to grow as we clear more space for this year. That's with about 35 players contracted and 2 receivers. 

Taking one of your suggestions -  converting money for Bakh. How much are you thinking ? He is due to have a 56m cap hit in 23/24.  If you add 10m to that we are talking 66m over two years. Do you want to shift 15m and have him earn 35m a year cap wise ?

Its not anywhere near as easy as you think.