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To his credit Adams isn't holding out for a new contract.  Unfortunately there is no way we can afford to pay him.  He'll command a top 5 contract.  We are going all in this year and as others have pointed out we will be in cap hell next year.  Even if Rodgers is traded I don't think we bring him back.  Great player and I'm sure the Packers would love him back but cost will be prohibitive.  Can't spend 20 mil/yr plus on Adams.  After this year we are screwed.

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7 hours ago, Norm said:

I'm pretty confident that's not the only body type he wants though. And it's not like Adams can't block at all and isn't physical...

I'd be pretty shocked if they just let him walk. 

I think it is safe to say that is the general consensus from fans. We will have an answer within the next 9 months.  

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12 minutes ago, R T said:

I think it is safe to say that is the general consensus from fans. We will have an answer within the next 9 months.  

Oh he definitely wants that type 100% but it's not that just that, then again when he went with a shorter dude in Adams he was a built guy, which I'm so on board with. But I don't think Adams is misplaced I guess is my point. We'll see though

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I don't see any way the Packers just let Adams leave as a free agent.  He'll get a new deal in '21 or get dealt at the trade deadline if the Packers are out of it.  If he's still on the roster in '22 and doesn't have a new deal yet he'll get tagged. 

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15 hours ago, craig said:

Mike, I may be misremembering, but I thought Campbell will be $0.25M for 2022?  That will be 0.1% of the 2022 cap.  I realize every 0.1% adds up, but that seems like such a teensy impact.  I realize you get ten of those and it can add up to 1%.  But the Campbell deal seems **so** super cheap that I can't get too faulty about it.  

And yeah, I'm kinda naively respectful of Gute/MLF's ability to think about their team.  So I kind of blindly trust that they don't think the $0.25M in 2022 is going to be much of a game-changer.  AND I'm kind of blindly trusting that their scouting that Campbell has some qualities that improve the flexibility of their ILB room for game-plan matchups.  

Certainly part of their thinking that it won't compromise 2022 and beyond may hypothetically reflect their thinking re Rodgers.  So sure, maybe a decision like that may as you suggest hypothetically manifest that they at least consider the possibility of a 2022 without Rodgers, which could free up a whole bunch of 0.1% hits.  

https://www.google.com/amp/s/frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/25/2020-nfl-cba-explained-veteran-salary-benefit/amp/

I won’t be shocked if we are using some sort of veteran exception for Campbell. We get two of them a year. Mercedes Lewis always feels like a gimme for that- and it really doesn’t matter *who* gets them, just that we typically have ~500k-1M coming back to us with those designations that aren’t made public. 

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19 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

I don't see any way the Packers just let Adams leave as a free agent.  He'll get a new deal in '21 or get dealt at the trade deadline if the Packers are out of it.  If he's still on the roster in '22 and doesn't have a new deal yet he'll get tagged. 

Exactly. He’ll be traded or resigned. You don’t let him walk for a 2023 comp 3rd when Julio is getting a 2nd in the 2021 market. Adam’s is still in his prime, and he’ll fetch a 1st or 2nd plus player at this point still. 

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24 minutes ago, blankman0021 said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/frontofficenfl.com/2020/05/25/2020-nfl-cba-explained-veteran-salary-benefit/amp/

I won’t be shocked if we are using some sort of veteran exception for Campbell. We get two of them a year. Mercedes Lewis always feels like a gimme for that- and it really doesn’t matter *who* gets them, just that we typically have ~500k-1M coming back to us with those designations that aren’t made public. 

They are public knowledge. A team cannot give signing bonus money and still use a veteran exception. Campbell and Lewis do not qualify, one was used for Bortles though.  

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1 hour ago, blankman0021 said:

Exactly. He’ll be traded or resigned. You don’t let him walk for a 2023 comp 3rd when Julio is getting a 2nd in the 2021 market. Adam’s is still in his prime, and he’ll fetch a 1st or 2nd plus player at this point still. 

It depends who is QB in 21

If Rodgers is QB, then the all-in shot is still on so Adams wouldn't be traded. Never say never but I would put the chance of him being tagged as incredibly low and I don't see an extension likely either so for me if Rodgers is QB the most likely outcome is he walks away at the end of his contract and we get a comp pick. 

If Love is QB then its another matter and I'd agree that a Julio Jones type trade makes complete sense for the Packers if they can get it done. 

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So money shouldn't be an issue. There's gonna be an F ton of new cap space next year right? Doesn't the new TV contract kick in soon? It's double the old one.  Like 10 billion or something incomprehensible like that. That's gotta add like 100 million+ instantly plus fans being back. The caps gonna have to be like 300 million in 2023 right?

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7 hours ago, mikemike778 said:

So basically kick it into the future and worry about it then. 

We need to appreciate the scale of it. We are about 38m over the maximum cap with that figure likely to grow as we clear more space for this year. That's with about 35 players contracted and 2 receivers. 

Taking one of your suggestions -  converting money for Bakh. How much are you thinking ? He is due to have a 56m cap hit in 23/24.  If you add 10m to that we are talking 66m over two years. Do you want to shift 15m and have him earn 35m a year cap wise ?

Its not anywhere near as easy as you think. 

 

It is a piece of piss.

Firstly we are not getting the cap to currently reflect the 17 game season and the new deal in 2021/22. We are still recovering from Covid. Come 2023 or by 2024 the cap will be in excess of $250m easily. So that's why teams are pushing so much into the future.

Next, where on earth you getting this figures for Bakh from? According to Spotrac Bakh has a cap hit $22m in 22, $26m in 23 and $30m in 24. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/david-bakhtiari-12390/ That cap hit in 24 looks bad but he has an $8m dead cap figure if you were to cut him and not pay him his $30m. So in three years if Bakh is still balling that last year on his contract get redone.

Bakh has a $10m roster bonus in 22, convert that into a signing bonus and you save $6.6m in 22 and only add $3.3m for each subsequent season. Where are you getting this $56m cap hit in 24?!?!? Doing this simple move just make his 24 cap hit $33.3m with $11.3m dead hit. Still attractive.

Same if we look at Kenny. due $20 in 22, $21m in 23 and $24m in 24, with a dead hit of $5m if cut then. He has a base salary of $8m in 2022 and a roster bonus of $7m. If you took $12m of that and made that a signing bonus you would save $8m against his name in 2022 and only add $4m to each subquent season. 

According to Spotrac for 22 we have 47 players on roster that cost us $238m. Cap is against top 51 players and you'll add that through the draft and they'll be cheap as chips.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/cap/2022/

So at $238m that has us at $29m over the cap. You save $12m net with a P.Smith cut. We are now at $17m. You would save $14m with the two moves I mentioned above. We are now $3m above the cap. We haven't talked about extending Jaire to lower his $13m cap hit for 22 or extending Z.Smith with his $28m cap hit. You save $4m by cutting Lowry. 

Then the big one, what to do with Arod. Depending how that all goes, trade him in 2022 and we save about $22m.

So we are all good.

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Oh, and giving AR more than 10M in new money this year is suicidal. Finantially speaking keeping him after 2021 makes no sense unless we expect MVP-level seasons for every year he plays for us or Love cannot get to a starter level during his rookie contract.

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15 minutes ago, VonKarman said:

FYI, Spotrac is to Overthecap what Justo was to palmy/Waldo (I'm hoing to milk this new metaforum knowledge now that I have it fresh in my mind).

But Spotrac looks so much nicer!!! 

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42 minutes ago, Brit Pack said:

..Next, where on earth you getting this figures for Bakh from? According to Spotrac Bakh has a cap hit $22m in 22, $26m in 23 and $30m in 24. https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/david-bakhtiari-12390/ ..... Where are you getting this $56m cap hit in 24?!?!? ...

Brit, Mike wasn't saying $56 in 24.  He was saying $56 in 23/24 combined.  ($26m in 23 and $30m in 24).

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11 minutes ago, craig said:

Brit, Mike wasn't saying $56 in 24.  He was saying $56 in 23/24 combined.  ($26m in 23 and $30m in 24).

Okay. That is dumb then as that makes it sound dramtically bigger than it needs to be at $56m over two years.

He is trying to use that number to inflate what is really going and where that $30m hit in 24 has an $8m dead cap hit, so I highly doubt Bakh is seeing that money. Converting his roster bonus in 2022 of $10m into a signing bonus does not put us into cap hell as Mike is trying to over state. It hardly pushed the needle much on Bakh deal in terms of adding commitments in the future but gives us the relief we need in 2022

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